Sharper MMA returns this weekend with picks and analysis for every fight on Saturday’s UFC card.
UFC on ESPN: Poirier vs. Hooker is a top-heavy card, with the main event by far the most anticipated fight of the show. But there is plenty of betting value to be found throughout the event, including a few upset picks.
Check out our selections below for the full card, including the two best bets on the menu.
Saturday’s card is the last of five events this past month at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas. After tonight, the promotion moves on to the star-studded UFC 251 and its three championship bouts on “Fight Island” in Abu Dhabi two weeks from now.
Enjoy the fights.

UFC on ESPN: Poirier vs. Hooker

• Saturday, June 27, 2020
• Las Vegas, Nev., UFC Apex

Prelims: 5 p.m. EDT, ESPN / ESPN+

Featherweight: Jordan Griffin (+110) vs. Youssef Zalal (-120)

• The pick: Youssef Zalal (-120).

Zalal was super-impressive in shutting out Austin Lingo at UFC 247 in February. “The Moroccan Devil” has a far higher ceiling than Griffin, and should be priced a lot higher than -120.
Strawweight: Kay Hansen (-165) vs. Jinh Yu Frey (+155)

• The pick: Jinh Yu Frey (+155).

At 35, Frey is 15 years older than her opponent, but both fighters are making their UFC debut. Frey, a former Invicta atomweight champion, is by far the better striker in this contest, and is not facing much of a size disadvantage either at the higher weight class.
The price of +155 is a gift here; grab it while you can.
Welterweight: Takashi Sato (-255) vs. Jason Witt (+235)

• The pick: Takashi Sato (-255).

Witt takes this fight on about a day’s notice for his UFC debut. At age 33, he is hardly an up-and-coming prospect, despite his decent regional run the last decade.
Sato simply outclasses Vitt as the Japanese fighter has a higher floor and higher ceiling.
Lightweight: Luis Pena (-220) vs. Khama Worthy (+200)

• The pick: Luis Pena (-220).

It’s another lightweight showcase in the featured preliminary bout, and this one is surprisingly tough to call. Worthy comes in on a six-fight win streak, his first event since his upset-of-the-year against Devonte Smith.
Worthy is tough, but Pena is just the better all-around fighter and has more ways to win, especially if they get to the ground. Look for “the Violent Bob Ross” to add another impressive victory to his canvass.

Main Card: 8 p.m. EDT, ESPN / ESPN+

Catchweight (150 lbs): Sean Woodson (-480) vs. Julian Erosa (+423)

• The pick: Sean Woodson (-480).

Woodson cruised to a unanimous decision in his UFC debut against Kyle Bochniak six months ago to maintain his undefeated record. “The Sniper” will look to continue his winning ways against the late-replacement Erosa — “replacement” being the key term, as “Juicy J” is firmly established as a journeyman-level fighter on the fringes of the promotion.
Erosa begins his third stint in the UFC with this fight, and neither should last long as Woodson will put him away early. Book “The Sniper” to win more than the 83 percent of the time needed to make a profit at this price.
Heavyweight: Philipe Lins (-105) vs. Tanner Boser (-105)

• The pick: Tanner Boser (-105).

It’s a coinflip matchup at heavyweight, and each fighter is coming off a loss. The difference is that Boser was beaten by Ciryl Gane, a potential future heavyweight champion. Lins dropped his last fight to Andrei Arlovski, who is on the wrong side of 40 and on his way out of the UFC with nine losses in his last 13 (with one no contest.)
The Canadian “Bulldozer” is six years younger than Lins, and seems to be the more accurate striker. Lins may have a small edge in power, but neither of these guys is very good at finishing fights, so look for Boser to get the nod in a decision.
Heavyweight: Gian Villante (+200) vs. Maurice Greene (-220)

• The pick: Maurice Greene (-220).

Greene was putting together a decent run at heavyweight before running into two very talented combatants in Sergey Pavlovich and Gian Villante. While no one will mistake Greene for a championship contender, he’s got a much better resume and is five inches taller than his opponent.
Villante is an atrocious 17-11 as a pro and is clearly on the downswing of his career. More important, a Sharper MMA axiom applies here: never bet on anyone who has lost to Sam Alvey.
Take Greene and lay the 220 with confidence.
Middleweight: Brendan Allen (-300) vs. Kyle Daukaus (+270)

• The pick: Brendan Allen (-300) * BEST BET.

This is the fight that the savvy UFC fans are buzzing about, and you will see why once these two set foot in the Octagon.
“All In” Allen is on a monster run through the UFC, winning his last six with five finishes. The Louisianan has knockout power, elite grappling and the submission skills to put his opponents to sleep regularly. At age 24, Allen is quickly moving his way up the middleweight ranks to become a championship contender.
It’s hard to find anything bad to say about Daukaus. He’s a similarly young prospect at 27, and has an undefeated record coming into his UFC debut tonight. Like Allen, Daukaus has a knack for finding finishes. Just one of his nine career fights has gone to the judges’ scorecards.
Ultimately, it’s Allen that has the more versatile game, higher ceiling and better experience. It’s out of respect for his undefeated opponent that Allen’s price is as low as -300, but we think “All In” gets the win way more than three times out of four, making Allen one of the best bets on the card.
Welterweight: Mike Perry (-290) vs. Mickey Gall (+260)

• The pick: Mickey Gall (+260).

We’ll come right out and say it: neither of these guys is very good, and the previous fight should have been the co-main event.
But Perry has a big name with a loud and controversial personality. And about two or three years ago, “Platinum” Mike also had a fight game worth betting on.
That’s no longer the case. Perry has lost five out of his last seven bouts, and the only impressive win during that stretch was a split decision over Paul Felder. We last saw Perry getting embarrassed by Geoff Neal in December in Las Vegas, where the fight was over in 90 seconds.
Gall, meanwhile, is probably the more talented fighter right now. He is an accomplished grappler, with five out of his six MMA wins coming by submission. He clearly has a lower ceiling than you’d like, evidenced by his knockout loss to Diego Sanchez, who is not exactly a world beater.
This fight will come down to Perry’s punching power vs. Gall’s grappling. Perry is the favorite, but he will not win anywhere close to 27 percent of the time, and that’s all we need for Gall to be a profitable bet at this generous price.
Lightweight: Dustin Poirier (-225) vs. Dan Hooker (+205)

• The pick: Dustin Poirier (-225) * BEST BET.

This clash of top-five lightweights is by far the best fight of the card, and probably also the most interesting matchup of the UFC’s five-event homestand at its Apex facility.
The bout should tide over fight fans nicely until the UFC anchors on “Fight Island” in two weeks; it may also have serious championship implications, depending on what happens in the lightweight unification bout between Khabib Nurmagomedov and Justin Gaethje, which is tentatively slated for September.
Hooker is on a phenomenal run after moving up to lightweight in 2017, winning seven out of eight, all in the UFC. His victims include some impressive names, like Gilbert Burns, who will challenge for the UFC welterweight championship in Abu Dhabi. Hooker last notched a controversial split-decision win over Paul Felder in an absolute war of a fight in “The Hangman’s” home of New Zealand in February.
Hooker will bring his elite kickboxing, sturdy chin and effective pressure in hopes of scoring another signature win to pad his case for a title shot.
Dustin Poirier is on a similar hot streak in the lightweight class, winning five straight (with one no contest) against a murderer’s row of 155-lb talents before running into the inevitable mauling by Nurmagomedov in their title fight last year.
Poirier, long known as a go-for-broke knockout artist, added nuance to his game in the lead-up to that championship fight. He showed patience to win vs. Gathje in what seemed like a match of equals, and Gaethje has gone on to destroy everyone in his path since.
Poirier has the pressure-fighting skills to match Hooker, and is definitely the more powerful puncher. Poirier also has the faster set of hands.
Hooker will have the height and reach advantage, and will do better to keep this fight at range. But that’s not Hooker’s style, and in a battle of pressure against pressure, Poirier has a big advantage.
Poirier’s Brazilian jiu-jitsu belt is black compared to Hooker’s blue, so the American should have the edge if the fight goes to the floor.
It’s a fascinating stylistic matchup with strength-vs.-strength, but Poirier is a level above Hooker talent-wise, and is a bargain at this price of -225.
Who are you picking in this banger of a main event? Let us know in the comments.
Be sure to hit the subscribe button below to receive free emails, so you never miss a Sharper MMA post.

After last night it’s probably the last time i bet against Khabib vs guys who are primarily strikers. Each dangerous striker he faces i am adamant they will at least be able to find some good success of the feet against Khabib in those periods the fight stays upright. I thought the same with MJ, Barboza, Al, Conor and Porier, but his dominance is just unparalleled to anyone else in the sport right now. Lets be honest Khabib has never really been in serious trouble and has a hell of a chin.
However going forward i want to see what happens when he gets put against really high level wrestlers or fighters who have a very dangerous guard/BJJ.
Realistically I think Khabib has only two fights left and will retire when and if he gets to 30-0, but i want to see what everyone think about the following potential lightweight matchups for the Eagle and if any of them can beat him (picks are mostly fighters with a grappling base):
Nate Diaz - They already have beef, so if Nate came back down to 155, how would Khabib fair against an ultra durable fighter in Nate who has slick boxing and a very dangerous guard with the threat of submissions? If the fight goes into the later rounds does anyone see Nate having success. The Diaz brothers have always had issues with wrestlers but its very interesting because i can’t imagine Nate breaking the way others have and maybe he can capitalize on the championship rounds where Khabib has been known to take a round off in terms of takedown ferocity.
Tony Ferguson - The next matchup to make unquestionably. Tonys creativity, ungodly cardio and ridiculously dangerous guard on paper poses threats to Khabib wherever the fight goes. However does Khabib just manhandle, tie up his limbs and smash him like everyone before him. Even if Tony manages to negate the damage then maybe even Tony will look human after 2 rounds of carrying Khabib's weight and then eventually get subbed similar to the way Porier did.
On the flipside Tony's elbows (standing and grounded) and Darce chokes could be a real issue for Khabib as well. I would be shocked if Khabib does not bleed a little in this fight considering what El Cucuy does to his all opponents faces. Also Tony coming from a 10th planet background could cause some unexpected positions for Khabib as its much more unorthodox than lets say a Gracie accredited BJJ background, so maybe this is worth considering.
GSP - I don’t believe GSP can make 155, but in the scenario he does then how does GSP fair against the Eagle (assuming GSP looks just as good at 155 as he did at 170)
GSP in his prime was far better than Khabib at mixing in his striking to takedowns and probably the best at doing so in MMA history in my view. I feel GSP and Khabib differ in that Khabib prefers control near the cage , whereas GSP is very comfortable with the takedown is more open space. Khabib is by far the more brutal and more dominant with the damage he inflicts with the ground and pound, constant chain wrestling and control. But lets not forget GSP is the more well rounded fighter as well as being much bigger. Could Khabib control GSP the same way he does to all his previous opponents or could GSP stuff all the takedowns and then fire off his patented blast doubles ?
Gregor Gillespie - Very unlikely to happen during Khabibs reign due to Gregor still being fairly new on the roster and is probably 5 wins away from a title shot. If Gregor cracks the top 10 then its probably much more likley he fights Mackachev when Khabib retires, but hypothetically if it did happen then how does everyone see it playing out. Gillespie's style is very similar to Askrens folkstlye approach, in that he follows transitions, smothers and keeps weight on his opponents till they break and then eventually subs them. Much different to Khabibs Sambo style of controlling and pinning limbs mixed with trips and throws, but nonetheless very intriguing as Gregor could potentially make it tricky for Khabib to hold positions. Too early in Gregor's UFC career to accurately predict this one i feel.
Justin Gaethje - Alot of people seem to think Justin's wrestling background could cause Khabibs problem with his NCAA D1 background similar to Gillespie. Justin has very good defensive wrestling as shown in his UFC stint and often punishes his opponents if they shoot a takedown on him , but he himself has noted he does not like using his offensive wrestling as it makes him tired. I guess this is why we have not seen his takedowns in his UFC run, although maybe he leaned on it more in WSOF but cant personally comment as i did not watch many of his pre UFC fights.
Justin does get a little gassed as shown in the Alvarez and Porier fights, but is always constantly trying to push forward in your face unless your separate him from consciousness. His leg kicks are brutal and i would expect Khabib to close the distance similar to how he closed distance in the Barboza fight with the flying knees and insane forward pressure forcing action towards the cage, thus limiting the kicking range. Not entirely convinced Justin can beat him, but still could be a very risky fight for Khabib due to the almost guaranteed chaos of a Justin Gaethje scrap.
Donald Cerrone - Going to keep it shorter for this matchup. I feel Cerrone's intercept knees and excellent BJJ from the guard are potentially big problems for Khabib early and not forgetting his standup is nothing short of spectacular. Even though i feel Cerrone is the much more well-rounded fighter (with the exception to offensive wrestling) he does not do well with fighters that are moving forward constantly. I admit Cowboy has become much better at controlling/maintaining kicking range since his return to lightweight. However seeing what Tony did to him last fight, i cant help but to think that with Khabib's relentless pace and constant forward momentum probably would not fair well for him in the later rounds. Most likely Khabib by GnP stoppage in round 3-5.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This was a bit of a long write up but let me know what you think of the matchups i have outlined and maybe anyone that i might have missed. I wanted to keep this strictly 155 and not Khabib moving up to face any 170 pound challengers as its unlikely to happen in my eyes.
I'm really interested to hear who you all think has the best shot at dethroning the lightweight king.

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UFC 168: Weidman vs. Silva 2 - Main Card (10:00 pm ET / 7:00 pm PT)

• Middleweight Championship (185): Chris Weidman (+150) vs. Anderson Silva (-185)
  
• Women’s Bantamweight Championship (135): Ronda Rousey (-700) vs. Miesha Tate (+450)
  
• Heavyweight (265): Josh Barnett (-200) vs. Travis Browne (+160)
  
• Lightweight (155): Jim Miller (-450) vs. Fabrício Camões (+325)
  
• Featherweight (145): Dustin Poirier (-270) vs. Diego Brandao (+210)
  

UFC 168: Weidman vs. Silva 2 - Prelims (8:00 pm ET / 5:00 pm PT)

• Middleweight (185): Chris Leben (+230) vs. Uriah Hall (-300)
  
• Lightweight (155): Gleison Tibau (-135) vs. Michael Johnson (+105)
  
• Featherweight (145): Dennis Siver (-285) vs. Manny Gamburyan (+225)
  
• Welterweight (170): John Howard (+125) vs. Siyar Bahadurzada (-155)
  

UFC 168: Weidman vs. Silva 2 - Online Prelims (6:00 pm ET / 3:30 pm PT)

• Welterweight (170): William Macario (+120) vs. Bobby Voelker (-150)
  
• Featherweight (145): Robbie Peralta (-185 ) vs. Estevan Payan (+150)
  

All odds taken from Bovada at time of post. Visit link to view by fractional (UK) and decimal (AU) odds.

Times

ONLINE PRELIMS
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MAIN CARD
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Online prelim streams

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UFC careers

Anderson Silva | Chris Weidman | Rousey & Tate

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Links

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UFC 168 Viewers Guide | UFC 168 Tournament Picks | UFC 168 Tournament Grand Prize
Enjoy the fights!

​
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TYSON FURY TO ENTER THE RING AT WRESTLEMANIA 2020 - (Yes +160)
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Free MLS Soccer Pick (OCT 29) -
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​
Raorin MAC McGuillamans free sports betting information and free picks.

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CLICK HERE TO READ JMOSE'S 'VIEWING GUIDE' FOR THIS EVENT'
CLICK HERE TO VIEW UFC 167 TOURNAMENT THREAD WITH THE OPPORTUNITY TO WIN ORIGINAL ARTWORK FROM WOODSTAINEDGLASS

MAIN CARD (7:00 pm PT / 10:00 pm ET)

Welterweight Georges St-Pierre (-250) vs Johny Hendricks (+195)
Light Heavyweight Rashad Evans (-190) vs. Chael Sonnen (+155)
Welterweight Rory MacDonald (-450) vs. Robbie Lawler (+325)
Welterweight Josh Koscheck (+105) vs. Tyron Woodley (-135)
Flyweight Tim Elliott (-165) vs. Ali Bagautinov (+135)

FOX SPORTS 1 PRELIMS ( 5:00 pm PT/ 8:00 pm ET)

Lightweight Donald Cerrone (-125) vs. Evan Dunham (-105)
Middleweight Ed Herman (+145) vs. Thales Leites (-175)
Welterweight Brian Ebersole (+165) vs. Rick Story (-205)
Bantamweight Erik Perez (-450) vs. Edwin Figueroa (+325)

FACEBOOK/ONLINE PRELIMS (3:30 pm PT / 6:30 pm ET)

Welterweight Jason High (-315) vs. Anthony Lapsley (+245)
Bantamweight Will Campuzano (+300) vs. Sergio Pettis (-400)
Light Heavyweight Gian Villante (-360) vs. Cody Donovan (+270)
All odds taken from Bovada at time of post. Visit the link to view by fractional (UK) and decimal (AU) odds
Times
Local time conversion and countdown timer for Main Card*
Local time conversion and countdown timer for FOX Sports 1 Prelims*
Local time conversion and countdown timer for Facebook/Online Prelims
Media
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Enjoy the fights!

I started a hobby last week of doing write ups for the UFC fights. I put $50 on an online site when my wife an I went to UFC Rochester. It makes the fights more interesting and I've enjoyed being interested in fights I wouldn't otherwise be interested in. Its probably easier to read in the blog form, theres excel tables and stuff ahah. I'll copy and paste it below too.
https://medium.com/@j.granttracy/ufc-uruguay-betting-analysis-cc48ab79fd97?sk=749f6ae338073a4730decc19849dabb7
UFC New Jersey Reflection
· Hannah Goldy…I apologize. I thought Miranda Granger was going to show up thin, she was gigantic with an 8 inch reach advantage, wasn’t even a close fight.
· “Lucky” Lauren Murphy! Happy she got the win, sad she didn’t get a $50,000 bonus, unfortunately I bet the decision.
· Nasrat Haqparast is a killer.
· My friend Jim will not longer contribute.
​
Polyana Viana (-160) Veronica Macedo (+135)
​
The UFC knows what they’re doing here, Rachael Ostovich cancels, they bring in Polyana Viana, these two girls are rockets. Polyana Viana beat the hell out of a thief attempting to rob her, everyone loves a UFC girl beating the hell out of a thief story. Viana showed excellent jiu jitsu for almost the entirety of her Maia Stevenson fight and segments of JJ Aldrich fight but Viana has a problem getting the fight to the ground. Viana has a bigger problem holding her hands low. In every fight she gets hit in the face because her hands are low. Viana tends to get fatigued, she looks real big for 115 lbs, I have a feeling she cuts too much weight. Viana had a height and reach advantage over Hannah Cifers. Cifers took advantage of Viana’s hands being low and connected with her face a lot. Viana could not manage to wrestle Cifers to the ground but she did have some success pulling guard in the 2nd round. She took this fight with Veronica Macedo short notice and it will be at 125 lbs, I am interested to see how she performs at 125 lbs. Veronica Macedo impressed me fighting Andrea Lee. Her strikes were dangerous, each punch or kick was vicious. At one point I think she threw a left head kick as if it was a flying knee, i’m not even sure what I saw but I liked it. Macedo’s jiu jitsu from the bottom was awesome. Lee had full mount and back mount a couple of times but Macedo is slippery, she twists and kicks her legs up and next thing you know she’s up. Macedo’s grappling was the reason she lost. Lee was bigger and stronger and used her strength to win grappling situations. Macedo is undersized for the 125 lbs division which is a reason why she struggles grappling. I thought Macedo’s grappling improved in her fight with Gillian Robertson, she won some grappling situations in the 1st round. Macedo was dominant when the fight was standing, but the grappling eventually cost her. It doesn’t matter how good you are at escaping back mounts and full mounts, these positions are dangerous. Unfortunately, Macedo was caught in a rear naked choke. Macedo is 23 years old and training at the MMA Lab, she will continue to make improvements with each fight.
Prediction
Macedo has a vicious striking advantage. Viana’s strength is her jiu jitsu but she struggles to take her opponents to the ground. Macedo does wear a black belt but she doesn’t want this fight on the ground. Viana has a cardio issue at 115 lbs, but it is possible fighting at 125 lbs helps her cardio. It’s also possible a short notice cut to 125 lbs is just as hard on her cardio. Macedo’s grappling has improved with every fight, if she keeps this fight on the feet she will win. I don’t think Viana has the grappling skills to force this fight to the ground. Unless Viana looks like a different fighter answering the call for a short notice 125 lbs fight Macedo wins by 2nd round knockout.
Betting
Macedo should be the favorite in this fight, she’s a +135 underdog and will be the favorite when the fight starts. I’ve seen cardio issues with Viana, I’ll take a shot with a 3rd round finish for Macedo. It looks like Macedo did end up at as the favorite, I would still take a shot on her with a smaller bet.
· Macedo wins (+135) $50 to win $67.50
·Macedo wins in 3rd round (+1800) $5 to win $90
Aleksey Kunchenko (-125) Gilbert Burns (+115)
Aleksey Kunchenko showed high level stand up in his fight with Thiago Alves. He doesn’t use kicks often but is excellent with his hands. I didn’t see Kunchenko have trouble with Alves, but Alves did have some success with leg kicks in the fight. In the Yushin Okami fight Kunchenko stopped about 10 takedown attempts while dictating octagon control. I don’t see a cardio issue with Kunchenko, this will be his first real test in the UFC octagon. When I saw Gilbert Burns fight Dan Moret I thought he was the best 155 lbs fighter to ever live. That guy cut a tremendous amount of weight for that fight and I couldn’t believe anyone could beat him at 155 lbs. Next fight, Burns is knocked out by Dan Hooker. The cerebral fluid around the brain is the last to rehydrate, guys who cut too much weight don’t have good chins. Burns cuts too much weight for 155 lbs, I think his future is at 170 lbs. Filling in on short notice for this 170 lbs fight will be a good test for him. I really like Burns as a fighter, he has power with his strikes his wrestling is good, and his jiu jitsu is sensational. This should be a good fight of contrasting styles.
Prediction
Burns is an exceptional jiu jitsu practitioner, if the fight lands on the ground Kunchenko is in danger. His striking is wild but powerful, on multiple occasions I've seen Burns throw a power punch that missed by at least a foot. Kunchenko is the higher level striker. I’ve never seen him on his back in the UFC, he stuffed 10 takedowns from Yushin Okami. It should be considered that this is a late notice fight for Burns and he didn’t have a training camp, although he competes regularly in grappling. Alright, here’s how I see this fight going, I think Kunchenko takes the center of the octagon and dictates the fight standing. Kunchenko isn’t going to be hurried, patience is a quality of high level striking. We know Kunchenko stuffed 10 takedowns in his last fight, Burns needs to get this fight to the ground or he loses a decision. Burns is an exceptional jiu jitsu practitioner but he doesn’t have elite wrestling. I could guess and make assumptions about Kunchenko, a fighter I barely know, but I’m not going to. I have seen Kunchenko stuff about 10 takedowns in his fight with Okami. I have seen Kunchenko keep distance and be a patient striker with Alves. I think those 2 facts lead me to believe Kunchenko can stay off his back and win a decision.
Betting
I have no idea what’s going to happen. I’m flirting with Kunchenko winning by decision (+165). If I felt I had more tape on Kunchenko and knew more about his jiu jitsu and takedown defense i’d make a bet. I kinda like Burns wins by submission (+450) but i’d just be guessing. Burns fighting at 170 lbs is another wild card. I’m going to pass on this one, I’m interested to see what happens.
· Pass
Alex Da Silva (-280) Rodrigo Vargas (+255)
Alex Da Silva looked solid in his UFC debut in St. Petersburg. He showed solid striking and grappled well with Alexander Yakovlev. Unfortunately, he was caught in a choke and tapped. Silva didn’t look special anywhere, but didn’t show a glaring weakness. Rodrigo Vargas fights for Combate Americas. Vargas is a southpaw fighter with cardio issues. Vargas wouldn’t be in the UFC if he wasn’t a late fill in.
Prediction
I did not study Vargas a lot but I don’t think he has UFC caliber fighting skills. Silva has the edge everywhere. Silva will win I am just wondering if Vargas’s cardio allows for a stoppage. “Fatigue makes cowards of us all” Silva wins this fight inside the distance.
Betting
I can’t bet on a fight where I watched 1 fight of 1 fighter and don’t know who the other guy is. I will pass on this fight for now. I learned my lesson trying to make a judgement on Miranda Granger off of YouTube videos last week.
·Pass
Geraldo De Freitas (-130) Chris Gutierrez (+120)
Geraldo De Freitas looked good in his UFC featherweight debut verse Felipe Colares. He’s big, his reach is long for the division, and his boxing is sharp. He mixes in some kicks but his boxing is where he's most comfortable. On the ground his jiu jitsu is excellent and his grappling isn’t a weakness. I did see De Freitas fatigue in the 2nd round and a better fighter would've taken his back and stole the round from him or choked him. Michael Bisbing was confused as to why he kept winning boxing exchanges on the feet and finishing with a takedown. This was because of his fatigue level. De Freitas’ cardio was an issue at 145 lbs. Apparently this fight is scheduled for 135 lbs. At his size, I don’t know how this guy is going to make weight and this weight cut will have an effect on his cardio. Chris Gutierrez effectively uses his kicks standing up. In the UFC he hasn’t showed good wrestling or jiu jitsu. I don’t have an issue with his cardio. The more I do these, the more I appreciate the UFC’s match making, I’m excited for this fight.
Prediction
I don’t like De Freita’s cardio or his weight cut to 135 lbs. De Frieta is basically better at everything but I am very skeptical about his weight cut. Gutierrez uses his kicks well and kicking distance is longer than boxing distance so it’s possible Gutierrez can mitigate the reach advantage through kicks. I can also see De Freita’s boxing lighting Gutierrez up on the feet if his kicks are not effective in maintaining the distance. The question I have is can Gutierrez win enough on the feet to make this a cardio battle? I really want to say yes, but I don’t think Gutierrez has the grappling skills to make De Freita work enough to turn this into a cardio battle. I think De Freita’s boxing works in the first round and implements his grappling and jiu jitsu in the later rounds to finish this fight by decision.
Betting
I really don’t like this weight cut for De Freitas but I think he has the skills to win the fight if he doesn’t gas out. I haven’t seen De Freitas gas out at 135 lbs but I’m not sure enough to bet De Freitas as a favorite. Basically I like everything about De Freitas but I don’t like the weight cut. I’m going to trust what i have seen in the fights and not my imagination. De Freitas will win this fight by decision. And maybe i’ll just throw a 5 spot on a 3rd round finish just in case De Freitas cardio does hit a wall.
·De Freitas wins decision (+185) $10 to win $18.50
·Gutierrez wins in round 3 (+1800) $5 to win $90
Raulian Paiva (+100) vs Rogerio Bontorin (-110)
Raulian Paiva has an advantage in this fight with his hands. He has a longer reach than Bontorin and that is where he hopes to win the fight. He favors his boxing over his kicks. Rogerio Bontorin has fantastic grappling and is excellent on the ground with his jiu jitsu. The fight with Magomed Bibulatov showcased these attributes. Bibulatov had a slight advantage striking, especially with his kicks. Bontorin does have a powerful 1–2 as a southpaw but where he excels is his grappling and jiu jitsu. He doesn’t have elite cardio for a 125 lbs UFC fighter but I don’t see a glaring weakness.
Predictions
Raulian hopes to win this fight boxing Bontorin. Bontorin showed he can hang on the feet with a dangerous striker in Bibulatov and take the fight to the mat. I think Raulian is “light in the ass” and Bontorin finds a way to take this fight to the ground and wins a decision.
Betting
I was impressed with Bontorin against the Russian. I think he uses his grappling and jiu jitsu to expose Raulian’s ground game.
·Bontorin wins (-110) $11 to win $10
Tecia Torres (-150) vs Marina Rodriguez (+140)
Tecia Torres looked amazing vs the karate hottie. She got inside and unloaded vicious punches, her grappling was great, and she was never in any danger on the ground. Torres again looked real good vs Jedrzejczyk, she seemed to win grappling exchanges, Jedrzejczyk just threw too much volume and she lost a close fight. Weili Zhang wore Torres down in their fight, she was much bigger, there wasn’t an area where Torres had the advantage. Marina Rodriguez is the classic muay thai fighter transitioning to mma. She is very long and her striking is sensational but she has trouble grappling. Because of this she found herself on the ground in the Randa Markos fight. Jessica Aguilar isn’t much of a test for Rodriguez. So here we go, a very long muay thai fighter facing off with the tiny tornado.
Prediction
Rodriguez might be the longest fighter Torres faced in the UFC. Her reach and muay thai is excellent. Torres will need to get on the inside and use her grappling. I feel like Rodriguez’s take down defense isn’t up to the standards of the UFC but I think it would be against Torres’ nature to become a wrestler. I’m very torn on this one, the thai clinch with knees can be utilized against a shorter opponent. I feel like Rodriguez judges distance well and will catch Torres with a right hand if she tries to get inside. But, Torres did a good job clinching Jedrzejczyk. But clinching against the fence may not be an advantage for Torres. I feel like Torres will need to have a lot of success taking Rodriguez to the ground to win this fight, Rodriguez has more paths to victory. I’ll take Rodriguez by decision.
Betting
Torres is back with American Top Team, fight camps matter. Rodriguez is an excellent muay thai practitioner and she towers over Torres. I think Rodriguez’s size will be the difference, Rodriguez will win a decision here.
·Rodriguez wins (+140) $10 to win $14
Cyril Gane (-380) Raphael Pessoa (+340)
There is film on Cyril Gane, he moves well and obviously has power. He has won all of his fights by knockout. His most recent fight he fought Rouggers Souza in Quebec. I’m a big Jason Herzog fan, feel like he might be the best in the business behind Herb Dean. Jason Herzog was the referee in this contest. Gane connected and Souza was dazed, he was dazed and Gane continued to connect. Eventually he falls backwards and clearly has no idea where he is. His mouth guard falls out while he’s on his knees waiting for Gane to deliver the final blow of the fight, having no idea where he is. Jason Herzog calls time out, proceeds to put the mouth guard back in to the kneeling fighter’s mouth. Pessoa is on his knees, having no idea where he is, tee’d up for Gane. Jason Herzog literally calls time in, and he immediately gets knocked out. It was absurd.
Prediction
This fight is basically 2 random heavyweights fighting. One looks jacked, the other doesn’t. I’ll go with the jacked dude.
Betting
It would take a special kind of person to bet Gane in this one. I don’t hate a bet on the big underdog but i’m going to sit this one out.
·Pass
Enrique Barzola (-120) Bobby Moffet (+110)
Bobby Moffet is a wrestler that's good on the ground. In 2 UFC fights I've seen him lock in 3 darce chokes. He's also worked his way out of triangles., hes a tough guy on the ground. He’s not a great striker on his feet, he wants to do most of his work on the ground, and hes decently skilled at it. I haven’t seen an issue with his cardio. I did not like the way Moffet went down to a straight left from Bryce Mitchell in the first round. Enrique Barzola is not a high level striker, his best attributes are his cardio and wrestling. He doesn’t have remarkable jiu jitsu and he has trouble holding opponents on the mat. He beat Brandon Davis because his cardio was better and he rode him for 2 rounds to get a decision. He didn’t have success with his takedowns in the Kevin Aguilar fight and the striking difference lead to a losing decision. I did find that Barzola looked to be the fresher fighter in the 3rd round of that fight because he was desperate.
Prediction
There are a couple questions that need to be answered in this fight that will decide the winner. The first question is, will Barzola have success taking Moffet to the mat, will his wrestling be successful in this fight? Moffet is a good wrestler, I don’t think there is a big wrestling advantage to be had. I also don’t think Barzola will be able to keep Moffet on the mat if he does get him down. Barzola beat Davis because of his cardio, will that same path to victory happen against Moffet? I don’t think it does, I do think Moffet has good cardio. Moffet is a good match up for Barzola’s 2 main paths to victory, combine that with an excellent ground game and good cardio, Moffet wins a close decision against Barzola.
Betting
I think Moffet is going to win this fight, hes the underdog. I still think there’s really good value at +110 for Moffet. There was a lot better value earlier in the week, people have been betting on him bringing the line down.
·Bobby Moffet (+110) $30 to win $33
Rodolfo Viera (-235) Oskar Piechota (+195)
Oskar Piechota is very patient in his stand up. He wants his opponent to throw first so he can counter by clinching, he doesn’t seem too interested in slipping and countering with a right hand. He’s not a high level striker, but i’m giving him “mutant on the ground status” along with my boy Claudio Silva. I keep wanting to tarnish Piechota’s striking but he knocked down Jonathan Wilson and he knocked out Tim Williams, that’s not nothing. Piechota definitely has improved his striking, I actually thought he was the stronger striker vs Meerschaert. Unfortunately, Piechota couldn’t finish Meerschaert on the ground in the 1st round, and he couldn’t handle Meerschaert on the top in the 2nd round. This kid is tough, the way he lost, he showed his will to win. Chris Tognoni is an awful ref. When you have Oskar Piechota fighting Gerald Meerschaert you don’t stand them up when one fighter is in full guard after like a minute. To compound that, he didn’t protect Piechota from himself when he was out on his feet taking elbow bombs to the head over and over. He let the fight go to the ground where Meerschaert decided to choke him because he was getting tired of punching. He easily slipped a rear naked in because Piechota is only operating on muscle memory at this point. He tried to tap but couldn’t physically muster it, proceeded to go unconscious and here’s Chris Tognoni lifting his arm as if he’s refereeing in the WWF. Chris Tognoni is not my favorite. Okay, so I’m hearing a lot of buzz around this Rodolfo Viera guy. apparently hes a jiu jitsu wizzard. He landed a smooth takedown against Vitaliy Nemchinov and I think his wrestling is actually good. He’s a wild card, he will need to put Piechota on his back to have a chance to win this fight.
Prediction
If Rodolfo Vieira puts Piechota on his back I do think he’s screwed. I do think Vieira has better wrestling than you would think coming from a jiu jitsu wizard. Piechota has made improvements throughout his 3 fight UFC career and he does have the advantage on the feet. I won’t be able to look myself in the mirror tomorrow after proclaiming Piechota, “mutant on the ground” status if pick against him. I’ve been hearing too much smoke about this Viera guy. I don’t want to bet on Tecia Torres’ wrestling path to victory because that’s not her strength and I don’t want to bet on Piechota’s striking to win because its not his strength. If there’s enough smoke, there’s fire, I’m staying away from this one. I’m not that good looking anyway, I don’t need to look at myself in the mirror.
Betting
I’m staying as far away as I can with this one. Rooting for Piechota though.
·Pass
Volkan Oezdemir (-155) Ilir Latifi (+145)
I’m a Volkan Oezdemir guy. He’s riding a 3 fight losing streak but he got exposed by Daniel Cormier, he lost a tough fight to Anthony Smith, and he got screwed by the judges against Dominick Reyes. The book on Volkan is he gases out early. He did gas out against Cormier and Smith but he went 3 rounds with Reyes, I am not handicapping Oezdemir because of cardio issues. Oezdemir has knockout power at light heavyweight, he likes to stand up and box. This fight has been made at least 3 times. I believe in Sweden these guys were supposed to go but Latifi had back issues and it was called off. Anyways, it looks like its happening this time in Uruguay.
Prediction
Oezdemir’s reach and his boxing is going to touch Latifi until he falls. Latifi pulled out of the Sweden fight because of back issues, back issues don’t go away. If you look at Latifi’s record everyone he's lost to is an excellent mma fighter, Mousasi, Blachowicz, Bader, and Anderson. He beats the guys he should beat. Oezdemir is still a top 5 light heavy weight, he will knock Latifi out in the 2nd round.
Betting
Awhile ago I put 3 unites on Oezdemir at -130, nothing changed, Oezdemir wins this fight easily by knockout, when the TKO/KO line comes out i’ll bet that.
·Oezdemir wins (-155) 3 units $46.50 to win $30
·Oezdemir wins by TKO/KO (+155) $10 to win $15
·Oezdemir wins in 2nd round (+550) $5 to win $27.50
Luiz Eduardo Garagorr (-115) Humberto Bandenay (+105)
Well Humberto Bandenay’s first 2 fights didn’t last long. The left kick he caught Martin Bravo wasn’t a fluke, he throws his left kick and left hand a lot. In his 2nd fight his glove tap was refused and 20 seconds later he's knocked out. He did throw up a quality arm bar attempt from the bottom before he was knocked out with a slam and follow up punches. I do see a cardio issue in Bandenay’s most recent fight. Luiz Eduardo Garagorri is a muay thai fighter that hasn’t fought anyone that is relatively good at mma. He’s a hometown guy from Uruguay, my guess is that is why he is fighting on this card. A lot of mma fans don’t like this fight card. Having this fight as the co co main event is evidence for that opinion.
Prediction
It's hard to make a prediction when I can’t really find anything to watch on the favorite in the fight. A home town Muay Thai guy, beyond that, I have no idea who he is.
Betting
I’m going to pass on this fight, really weird fight.
·Pass
Vincente Luque (-230) Mike Perry (+190)
Vincente Luque is the most underrated welterweight in the division. Extremely sharp decision making with his strikes, mixes in some nice leg kicks. He has good jiu jitsu as well. I’m a big fan, saw him in Rochester. If he has an achilles heel, I feel like he has an affinity to start brawling and he's capable of getting clipped. He lost to Leon Edwards by decision but Leon Edwards is a stud. Mike Perry is very entertaining, if anyone hasn’t seen Mike Perry talk about his coaches talking to him during the fight, take a look at it. Perry likes to stand in front of you and throw his hands. He's real strong which helps him clinching against the cage and his take down defense. He switched to Jackson Winkeljohn a couple fights ago. He’s at his best standing in front of you and throwing his hands, his ground game can be exposed.
Predictions
Luque and Perry will stand in front of each other for 3 rounds and i’m excited about it. Luque striking is too good for Perry, he will get the better of him for 3 rounds. On the other hand, Perry is a strong guy and throws really good elbows from the clinch. My only concern for this fight is Luque was clipped and sat down by Ryan Barberena in their fight. He was also clipped by the late fill in Derrick Krantz in the 1st round in Rochester. Mike Perry is certainly capable of catching Luque. It’s a popular opinion that Perry at +200 is a great bet. The problem is Perry has been +200 since opening lines came out and hasn’t moved. If people really believe that the line would’ve moved. Luque continues his assault on the welterweight division and wins by decision even though his last 9 victories came by KO.
Betting
Luque is going to win a decision vs Perry. Perry is a real tough guy and will pose some threats with the clinch but Perry loses a decision. I think I’m just going to watch this fight, I like both fighters and don’t need a reason to be interested in this one.
·Pass
Valentina Shevchenko (-1000) Liz Carmouche (+800)
“It is what it is” we all know what this is. Flyweight is Valentina’s division, she now has a home. Joanna Jedrzejczyk was never close, Jessica Eye wasn’t close and Liz Carmouche won’t be close.
Prediction
Valentina Shevchenko wins this fight by knockout. Muay Thai is Shevchenko’s nature and I think she uses it for 5 rounds or less.
Betting
·Shevchenko wins by TKO/KO (+220) $10 to win $22
·Shevchenko Sister’s parlay continued from last week $11 to win $10

If you had told me a year ago that Dos Anjos and Saffiedine would be fighting in 12 months in a potential loser-leaves-town showdown, I would've said you were full of shit. Yet here we are. When applied to traditional logic, MMA makes very little sense, and this fight is a great reminder of that. I'm not even certain I'm excited for the consequences of this one, but the fight itself is somewhat intriguing so let's have a look.
Both men are former champions. Both men are impressive technically and hold some very impressive victories on their resumes. Both men have fallen on some very hard times lately. There's a lot on the line here, and yet the fight feels so strangely dull. There isn't a whole lot of room left for either guy at welterweight, though the absence of Lawler, MacDonald, Hendricks, and Condit has caused a serious void in the division. I can't be the only one asking: What's next?
Dos Anjos is a -195 favorite here, making Saffiedine a +155 underdog. This is a bit surprising, considering that this is Dos Anjos' welterweight debut, but given Saffiedine bad luck with the Kim decision, I suppose it's not ridiculous. In short, both men need to win here.
Tarec the Tactician & his Terrible Trade for Technique
Tarec Saffiedine made a deal with the devil and it has cost him dearly. When Tarec visited Hell at the beginning of his fighting career, he pleaded the devil to make him a technical MMA striker. The devil obliged and promised Saffiedine a strong technical kickboxing game, a good pivot, crackling leg kicks, excellent takedown defense, a decent chin, distance management, and a surprising ability to switch-hit.
What did the devil demand for in return, you ask? Saffiedine's power. All of it.
Saffiedine has one way to win this fight and that way is by decision. His vaunted kickboxing game has equated to a grand total of 1 career finish via knockout or technical knockout in 22 professional fights and that was back in 2010. And, despite a black belt in BJJ, Saffiedine's last submission finish was in 2009. Tarec Saffiedine makes Benson Henderson look like Anderson Silva when it comes to finishes.
More than any other fighter in the sport today, Saffiedine's entire career has hinged on judge's decisions and this has made him unpopular. The only time Saffiedine has shown any real threat to get rid of someone is after multiple rounds of leg kicks and even then, Tarec rarely shows any urgency to get the job done.
Now, this is likely to help him here, since Dos Anjos is heavy on his front leg. He tends to lean forward into his strikes, weight on his right front leg, whereas Saffiedine remains more upright in classic Muay Thai form. Saffiedine does well in lacing leg kicks after clinch breaks, or as the last strike in extended exchanges. Typically, when Saffiedine stands southpaw, it's in a wide stance and he circles left. Occasionally, he'll switch stance mid-circle and throw the trademark left-hook-right-kick.
Saffiedine's footwork has always been strong; he never crosses his feet and he does a good job keep the fight where he needs it even if he's outfighting. This is an interesting counter to Dos Anjos, who functions best as a pure pressure fighter. Where Dos Anjos has run into problems were against fighters who could punish or overpower his pressure. Alvarez circled and stepped laterally against Dos Anjos to prevent getting pressed up to the cage, and when he eventually got there, he punished Dos Anjos' double-forearm guard by hooking around it. Ferguson took a more tried-and-true path to beating the Cordeiro pressure fighter; more pressure. As Dos Anjos tired, Ferguson kept marching forward and forcing Dos Anjos' shot (none of which landed).
I think Saffiedine needs to prepare for pressure, while also attempting to hold the center of the cage as best he can. For the most part, Saffiedine did a good job of this against MacDonald, until MacDonald started really having his way with the striking and Saffiedine backed off as a result. Saffiedine might be able to outfight to a decision, but judges don't tend to like seeing a fighter with his back to the cage for extended periods of time. (Now the folks at home see just how difficult an MMA career can be when you're an outfighting kickboxer with no power or dynamic finishing ability.)
To counter Saffiedine's leg kicks, Dos Anjos possesses one of the best straight lefts at lightweight. (I imagine at least some of his power will translate to welterweight). For example, in an exchange with Ferguson in Round 1, Ferguson (standing orthodox) shifts his weight to his back leg and throws a long leg kick with his left front leg. Dos Anjos is forced to eat it, but he counters with a strong straight left with all his weight behind it, snapping back Ferguson's head. This isn't a particularly unique tactic to counter leg kicks, but it reveals two things...

1. Dos Anjos usually isn't an ardent leg-kick checker.
   
2. Dos Anjos has more threatening boxing than Saffiedine.
   

He needs more of these counters, and him being a southpaw won't hurt. Southpaws have long-since been the bane of Tri-Star (Lawler, Hendricks), even though Saffiedine doesn't follow the traditional jab-centric Zahabi model. Dos Anjos also owns a strong right-handed jab. If I were Dos Anjos, I would consider attacking the inside of Saffiedine's lead left leg should Saffiedine stand orthodox, or slipping, firing the jab and the straight left should Saffiedine stand southpaw.
Saffiedine operates more as a counterstriker, meaning he doesn't feint much. He'll usually throw non-committal strikes like leg kicks out, then slip, then look for counters. On the other hand, Dos Anjos is the faster of the two and he feints more to draw his opponents into reacting. I wouldn't classify Dos Anjos as the ice-cold counterstriker that Saffiedine is, but he's offensively poised enough that he can force his opponents to pay for overreacting. Against Diaz, Dos Anjos would feint his right hand, draw out Diaz's jab, and then smash Diaz with a powerful straight left. The caveat here is that Diaz (normally a southpaw) was fighting orthodox, since his leg was all but mush. Dos Anjos' left cross is still his money punch, and if Saffiedine is fighting orthodox, the simple feint-right-straight-left combination will likely be a strong one for Dos Anjos.
All that said, Saffiedine is a much better range-finder than Dos Anjos and it helps that he's the more accurate one (47% striking accuracy versus 33% striking accuracy for Dos Anjos). I see Dos Anjos pressuring, Saffiedine circling both directions, outfighting, and trying to play matador with counters. Saffiedine can switch-hit, which would remove Dos Anjos' southpaw tactics of slipping the jab and smashing with the straight left. By going southpaw-to-southpaw, Saffiedine could mitigate Dos Anjos' boxing and open him up to the left leg kick. I trust Saffiedine to dictate the range of this fight better than I trust Dos Anjos to do it, since Saffiedine is larger, longer, and more accustomed to welterweight.
Beyond this, Dos Anjos' accuracy in the pocket decreases with extended exchanges. He doesn't move his head a lot, so if his opponent can exchange in the pocket with him and not go away (like Alvarez was able to do several times), then Dos Anjos often ends up on the losing end of more exchanges. Saffiedine tends to do a good job of keeping guys out of the pocket, and while his pocket defense isn't brilliant either (thanks, Rory), the volume of his leg kicks can wear on guys exiting exchanges.
Now for the least exciting part of Saffiedine's fights, which aren't usually exciting anyway: the clinch. Saffiedine possesses extremely sturdy takedown defense, and Dos Anjos is the smaller fighter. The idea of grappling in this fight seems frivolous. Saffiedine is going to be larger in the clinch, too, and Saffiedine even swept Kim a few times in their fight via inside foot-sweeps. Unless Dos Anjos attempts to grapple with Saffiedine, then I doubt we'll be seeing much in the way of grappling in this fight. I'm not putting it past Saffiedine to sweep Dos Anjos, but I'm also not betting on it either. Saffiedine's last few fights had some truly obnoxious cage-grinding since Saffiedine doesn't break or punish clinches particularly well, but say this for Tarec; he's nearly impossible to get to the ground. My only fear is that if Dos Anjos does clinch with Saffiedine, then Saffiedine's lack of urgency within the clinch might lose him some ground with the judges (as it did against Story).
Defensively, Saffiedine and Dos Anjos use their hands similarly. Both utilize the high double-forearm guard, covering up as they move away (though Saffiedine tends to brace a bit more than Dos Anjos). Saffiedine suffers a bit from the dreaded Overeem syndrome; kickboxing defense in an MMA 4oz-glove world. Meanwhile, Dos Anjos has had some troubles exiting exchanges by backing straight out (Henderson knocked him back with a front kick on an exit), but he's also the more fleet-footed of the two. Since Saffiedine is more likely the one to control the range at which this fight takes place, Dos Anjos might have to play an in-and-out game to dictate exchanges.
I still think Saffiedine is one of the more technical strikers at welterweight. Story did his best work against Saffiedine when he just...didn't seem to care about technique at all. He bullied Saffiedine and utilized his superior strength and athleticism to earn a decision. Instead of attempting to go strike-for-strike with Saffiedine like MacDonald, Story just walked him down, forced him to the cage, and wore on him. Again, I don't think this will work for Dos Anjos. Beyond him just being the smaller guy, I also can't see him being the guy to bully Saffiedine in the clinch. Saffiedine's leverage, his ability to keep his hips back, his over-under hand position...Dos Anjos isn't likely to have much success here. If there's a way to go about beating Saffiedine for Dos Anjos, this probably isn't it.
Saffiedine could run into trouble if his volume isn't high enough, and I wouldn't put it past Dos Anjos to outwork him for three, but I'm leaning towards the decision fighter who has no alternative path to victory. One more thing wearing on my mind about this fight; Dos Anjos is a bit slow to reset. He'll drop his hands, back off a second, give ground back to his opponent, and then jump back into fighting. As I was banging on about, if there's one thing Saffiedine does extraordinarily well, it's conclude exchanges well with kicks. As a punctuation mark. This is only a three-round fight, but I expect Saffiedine's diligent body and leg work to pay off if he can end every exchange with a thudding kick to put a stamp on things.
Conclusion & Armchair Psychology
My picks have been all over the place this year, so far be it for me to make this call. However, in a lot of ways, this matchup is equally all over the place, so fuck it.
I'm picking Saffiedine.
I realize that his UFC run hasn't been everything we were hoping it would be when he beat Marquardt for the Strikeforce title. I realize that Saffiedine's technical game without power means a decision is his only path to victory. I also realize that Saffiedine's body has been seriously compromised by injury. I get it. Honestly, I wouldn't even be that surprised to see Dos Anjos swarm a timid Saffiedine for an early TKO.
All that said, I have more confidence in Saffiedine at this point in both men's careers. He's only 30, and while Dos Anjos is turning 33 this year, I feel like the mileage will sooner catch up to him than Tarec in this seemingly ill-advised shift to welterweight 34 fights into his career. Not only this, but Dos Anjos (despite popular belief) contends with a lot of decisions too. If someone is getting a finish here, it's Dos Anjos, but unless a finish presents itself organically, Dos Anjos is likely going to be fighting the same round-winning fight that Saffiedine is.
While Saffiedine is certainly not winning himself any fans with his lack of exciting fights and inactivity, he is the more reliable one when it comes to bringing a sound strategy to the table and sticking to it because without a strategy, he doesn't have many more options. More than that, Saffiedine is likely to bring more sound tactics to the table, including punishing Dos Anjos' lead leg, and getting the last strike off in any given exchange to win the attritional battle.
I don't really know where either guy goes from here, win or lose, because I don't see either guy being able to climb the welterweight ladder much higher. Both men are running the risk of going 0-3 in their last 3 here, and both are running the risk of being cut (Saffiedine more than Dos Anjos). In a lot of ways, this fight is a prime example of shining promise that can go wrong in so many different ways in an MMA career. (For Saffiedine, these include injury and living and dying by the decision. For Dos Anjos, these include weight cutting and just plain bad luck.)
This fight depresses me, but the tactical side of things and the outcome are interesting enough that it'll be worth watching. I seriously hope both men have good showings...
Final Pick: Tarec Saffiedine via Unanimous Decision

A while back I posted about a model I was building to calculate fighter rating based only on their results (i.e no hype). This was largely motivated by how utter crap the UFC rankings are.
In the past few months I've made some big improvements on the model, ported it from Excel to a suitable programming language and added many more promotions and fighters (originally it was limited just to the UFC). Now I'm considering about 50k fights from the most important promotions and around 30k fighters.
You can dig up the old post for a more in-depth explanation of the methodology, but basically this is unlike an ELO model that's just forward looking (each fight only affects your rating from that point forward), which is fine for something like chess where players play hundreds of matches per year, but completely unsuitable for MMA IMO. This model looks forward and backwards so a fight today affects your past rating and the rating of your past opponents and their opponents and so on. And this is how we view fighters in real life too, since their entire career consists of so few matches. For example after Ronda's second loss, no one believes she was a one in a lifetime athlete anymore. Just that she was a good fighter with some obvious weaknesses, that was ahead of the curve back then. Which is exactly the same assessment the model makes.
Ok, enough about that. Let's get to this weekend's event. I'm posting predictions for both Bellator 193 and UFC on Fox 27. In the table you'll see the ELO rating of both fighters (it's not a real ELO rating, but I've converted it to that scale for convenience and because it's something I'm familiar with). For reference the average fighter is rated 2,000 and every 400 point difference the chance the higher rated fighter wins is about 90%. Also, this ratings are not comparable between weight classes for a P4P ranking. Fighters of the same relative skill, but from higher weight classes are rated higher (because they're more likely to win due to their size). This occurs because fighter from different weight classes are linked through fighters that move up and down in weight and they seem to do better at the lower weight classes. This of course has no effect (and it's in fact beneficial for our predictions).
Here's the table:

f1_name	f2_name	f1_ELO	f2_ELO	f1_fights	f2_fights	f1_inactive	f2_inactive	f1_predicted_odds	f2_predicted_odds	f1_odds	f2_odds	f1_implied	f2_implied
Lorenz Larkin	Fernando Gonzalez	2,458	2,402	17.00	25.00	126	155	54.78%	45.22%	1.3	3.75	76.92%	26.67%
Saad Awad	J.J. Ambrose	2,335	2,190	19.00	6.00	85	882	61.68%	38.32%	1.5	2.7	66.67%	37.04%
Kendall Grove	A.J. Matthews	2,215	1,983	29.00	11.00	197	197	68.37%	31.63%	1.63	2.4	61.35%	41.67%
Steve Kozola	Jake Smith	2,262	1,933	5.00	3.00	113	245	0.00%	0.00%	1.43	2.9	69.93%	34.48%
Tyrell Fortune	Joe Hernandez	2,110	-	3.00	0.00	281	-	0.00%	0.00%			-	-
Tim Riscen	Mark Vorgeas	-	1,787	0.00	2.00	-	1,023	0.00%	0.00%			-	-
Ben Beebe	Everett Cummings	2,000	2,017	3.00	1.00	3,928	1,107	0.00%	0.00%			-	-
Mike Andaya	Julio Aguilera	1,919	-	2.00	0.00	55	-	0.00%	0.00%			-	-
Justin Lawrence	Andrew Natividad	2,377	1,897	15.00	5.00	197	359	87.56%	12.44%			-	-
DeMarcus Brown	Joshua Jones	1,814	-	5.00	0.00	266	-	0.00%	0.00%			-	-
Moses Murrietta	Chris Herrera	1,891	2,049	2.00	2.00	175	1,023	0.00%	0.00%			-	-
Ronaldo Souza	Derek Brunson	2,734	2,713	25.00	16.00	287	91	52.08%	47.92%	1.77	2.1	56.50%	47.62%
Dennis Bermudez	Andre Fili	2,375	2,244	18.00	12.00	189	98	60.61%	39.39%	1.65	2.35	60.61%	42.55%
Gregor Gillespie	Jordan Rinaldi	2,455	2,199	10.00	9.00	133	175	70.22%	29.78%	1.18	5.35	84.75%	18.69%
Drew Dober	Frank Camacho	2,293	2,088	26.00	3.00	182	70	0.00%	0.00%	1.63	2.4	61.35%	41.67%
Bobby Green	Erik Koch	2,332	2,261	21.00	13.00	112	216	55.95%	44.05%	1.67	2.3	59.88%	43.48%
Mirsad Bektic	Godofredo Castro	2,391	2,306	15.00	10.00	329	189	57.06%	42.94%	1.17	5.5	85.47%	18.18%
Mara Romero Borella	Katlyn Chookagian	2,097	2,244	2.00	9.00	112	294	0.00%	0.00%	2.3	1.67	43.48%	59.88%
Randa Markos	Juliana Lima	2,119	2,044	11.00	7.00	175	204	56.27%	43.73%	1.61	2.45	62.11%	40.82%
Justine Kish	Ji Yeon Kim	2,138	2,026	6.00	3.00	216	224	0.00%	0.00%	1.36	3.4	73.53%	29.41%
Vinc Pichel	Joaquim Silva	2,253	2,261	8.00	7.00	231	244	50.00%	50.00%	1.91	1.91	52.36%	52.36%
Niko Price	George Sullivan	2,397	2,113	4.00	16.00	91	728	72.36%	27.64%	1.33	3.5	75.19%	28.57%
Austin Arnett	Cory Sandhagen	2,052	2,129	3.00	4.00	694	106	0.00%	0.00%	2.8	1.45	35.71%	68.97%

The number of fights for each fighter reflects the number of fights they have in my database. Usually the ones missing are from early in their career from regional organizations not on my database. Running the model is already very computationally intensive for only 30k fighters, I'm not looking to add too many more.
You can also see their inactivity in days. If they've been out too long their rating may no longer be accurate, so keep that in mind. Then we have the odds each fighter would win as predicted by the model.
I've also added the odds and implied probability each fighter would win from 5dimes. Basically if the implied probability a fighter would win in the model is higher than the implied probability from the oddmakers, then if the model is right there would be a betting edge. Notice how the sum is always higher than 100%, that's the house margin.
This is provided for entertainment purposes only Don't come crying to me if you lose your house.
We can see that the predictions of the model line up pretty well with the Vegas odds for the most part. There a few notable exceptions.
In Larkin vs González, Larkin is a huge favorite, but according to the model González has a 45% chance to win. So there could be some value in a small bet there.
Kendall Grove has a small edge to win 68% vs 61%. I'll be betting on that. There's a small edge in Jordan Rinaldi as well, but it's a very low chance he'll win, so I think I'll pass.
Godofredo Pepey has a 43% chance to win according to the model, but only 18% according to Vegas. There seems to be some value there, maybe a small bet.
I think is funny that we both agree that Pichel vs Silva is the only pick'em fight on the bunch. Usually ELO differences below 15 points are irrelevant, so I predict it as a 50/50 fight.
I do have ratings for every fighter, but like I said they're not comparable between weight classes. I'm working on a fix, but for that I need to know the weight class of all 30k fighters and scraping them is taking a while. I'll probably have it next week. Feel free to ask any questions and again This is for entertainment purposes only Please don't go betting money you can't afford to lose.
Edit: I forgot to mention that it takes around 4 or 5 fights to start getting accurate rating estimates, so I don't predict fights where either fighter is below that threshold. It's far lower than the number chess sites need to give you a non provisional ELO (around 20), because this is both forward and backwards looking.