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Details of the five police visits before the bodies were discovered

Details of the five police visits before the bodies were discovered
55 boulevard Robert-Schuman

A disturbing disappearance

Nantes, boulevard Schuman, Wednesday April 13, 2011, eight days earlier. The shutters on 55 have been closed for several days. To the right of the front door, in an empty space framed by two hooks that supported a mailbox, a piece of white paper is fixed to the wall with an orange-colored tape. A typed message: “Return all mail to senders. Thank you.” Local residents have already noted these two abnormalities. Accustomed to walking past a house with shutters always open, this message intended for the postman seems very strange to them.
Located north of Nantes, this bourgeois house is adjoined with numbers 57 on its right and 53 on its left by three of its sides: facade, walls, and garden. It is in the heart of the residential district of Breil-Barberie, a rather lively area with many passing people day and night. Along Boulevard Schuman, imposing gates conceal beautiful wooded properties. In this spring of 2011, many small local shops are open – a hair salon, a sewing store, a bar where locals bet on horse races - there is a certain sweetness of life here.
At night, the scene changes under the very windows of 55: prostitutes, essentially of African origin, roam the sidewalks, looking for customers. Sometimes, this nocturnal “animation” degenerates into uproar.
On the neighboring Boulevard des Américains, Agnès Dupont de Ligonnès’ car, a Golf convertible, attracts the attention of a neighbor. The vehicle has not moved for several days, which is unusual. She testified to French radio station, RTL: “The house was closed and there was this inscription on the mailbox, ‘return to senders,’ which had intrigued me. [...] I always hoped that this house would reopen, but that didn’t happen. On Wednesday [the 13th], the postman came by, and I said to him, ‘It’s not worth putting mail at the neighbors at 55. The mailbox is closed.’ He said to me, ‘Really? I’m not surprised. They haven’t paid the recommandés (a special tax which guarantees mail delivery) for a while.’ It bothered me. I had a really bad feeling deep inside... I didn’t know why, but it made me anxious. I called the police.”

https://preview.redd.it/zc9u2hq8fwd51.jpg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e7ac0ec64551f08d0ca33b7b0b34d319b260555c

Agnès de Ligonnès abandoned car
This April 13, surprising information circulates in the neighborhood and fuels conversations. Persistent rumors come back from La Perverie-Sacré-Coeur, Anne and Benoît Dupont de Ligonnès’ school located on rue de la Perverie, a little east of boulevard Schuman. Since April 4, no one at the middle school or high school had seen them. Teachers and classmates are worried about them. One of them, who had loaned his iPod to Benoît, tried to reach him by phone in order to get it back, but there was no answer. Other friends passed in front of 55 only to find the door is closed.
As for the Blanche-de-Castille Catholic school complex where Agnès works, the news is hardly more reassuring: the family has apparently left in a hurry... for Australia.

A letter of departure for the United States

Four days earlier, Saturday, April 9, a member of Agnès’ family called the police to alert them to the receipt of a very peculiar and rather alarming letter. Suffice to say the interlocutor is not taken seriously by the police station.
This person, however trustworthy, reiterates his concern the following Monday, April 11 with the Nantes magistrates. The reaction in the prosecutor’s office at TGI (Tribunal de Grande Instance) of Nantes is extremely cautious. The family member is told that the Dupont de Ligonnès couple is of age, so there is no reason to worry so much.
The content of this letter, authored by Xavier Dupont de Ligonnès, is far from commonplace:
Nantes, April 8. Hi everyone! Mega surprise: we left for the USA in an emergency, under very special conditions. It will no longer be possible for us to communicate with you otherwise (no emails, SMS, or telephone) for a few years due to security reasons.
He said he was an American spy recruited by the DEA (Drug Enforcement Administration) and infiltrated the world of French nightclubs to recover information on drug trafficking and money laundering. And continues:
With the information I have collected for seven years, I have become an essential witness in a future trial involving senior officials in the international drug trade.
According to him, this risky mission had become complicated:
For some time, there were indications that I had been spotted... The situation therefore became dangerous for us here and necessitated taking emergency measures.
He then details “the federal witness protection program, from which he and his family benefit since they are already on American soil, transferred under a new identity, which must obviously remain secret,” and insists:
The official version is that we were transferred to Australia for professional reasons without further details. It would be good to circulate this false information on Facebook and other networks. [...] They tell us that it will be possible, in a certain time, to send you information by mail: we have chosen Emmanuel [Xavier’s best friend, Ed.] as the centralizer because he has the advantage of knowing just about everyone. He will receive the letters to communicate to you. He will receive instructions in due course.
“The house key is hidden outside in the EDF counter, which opens with anything (car key, screwdriver, knife),” adds Xavier Dupont de Ligonnès, alias XDDL, to allow his relatives to carry out the tasks he entrusts to them. The father of the family indeed gives instructions to everyone: sell certain furniture and cars, organize the inventory of fixtures before May 31… These are all elements that are not carefully examined by the investigators at that time.
The main message, though it is extraordinarily bizarre, is pretty clear: the father of the family says he is a spy in danger. Thanks to the American government, he was able to shelter his family in the United States. The letter ends thus:
We will have so much to tell you later! The hard part will be getting used to our new names!

The \"Letter to Nine\" sent by XDDL
By Wednesday, April 13, the police are already aware of this letter. They met with the director of La Perverie in the morning, who informed them of the letter they received that announced a departure after an emergency transfer to Australia - the “official version therefore.”
The manager of the Pizza Tempo pizzeria, a few meters from the family home, indicates that he too received a handwritten letter dated April 4, signed by Arthur, the eldest son and a casual employee in his business. In his letter, the young man says he can no longer “continue to perform his duties.” He “submits his resignation and renounces all compensation and any salary… following the transfer of his father to Australia.” This must be the reason why Arthur did not come to collect his pay as he usually did every month.
The announcement of this sudden departure on the other side of the world leaves the manager perplexed. This feeling is widely shared by the professional and personal entourage of the family.
This accumulation of testimony prompted investigators to search the unoccupied house at 55 boulevard Schuman for the first time. The visit takes place that day at 2:45 p.m. Brigadier-in-Chief, Michel M., notes that the shutters are closed. He calls on the fire brigade to enter the house. The residence is well ventilated. The electricity is still working. The accommodation is still furnished. Upstairs, the presence of suitcases suggests a hasty departure. Nothing else to report.
A second police visit is scheduled for 3:00 p.m. on Friday, April 15, 2011. Brigadier-in-Chief Michel B. arrives at the entrance to 55. He contacts one of the neighbors, Dr. Alain P., and asks to pass through his adjoining garden in order to reach that of the Dupont de Ligonnès by means of a ladder. From the back of the house, the policeman walks on the yard, crosses it, access the terrace, and then enters the kitchen.
On a buffet, they find medical equipment, car keys, and registration cards. The latter correspond to those of a Citroën Xantia and a Golf. The policeman also comes across a hand-scribbled note:
Sorry, we didn’t have time to bring the bags of shoes to the Red Cross. It’s not far. Just put them next to the garment containers. See attached map.

The state of the home seemed to support the story of a speedy departure.
There is also a Finaref bank document and underneath a key a post-it that reads: “Keys to the cellar.” The investigator seizes the key and goes down to visit this place under the terrace. During this second visit, like the previous one, nothing seemed abnormal.
The investigation continues, and it will see a clear evolution in the following hours. Around 5 p.m., the Nantes public prosecutor’s office asked the police to investigate the Family Allowance Fund and wished to know the geolocation of the Dupont de Ligonnès couple’s mobile phones. Also, the two names of Xavier and Agnès Dupont de Ligonnès are entered in the National Register of wanted persons.
At the same time, a Nantes police officer takes his phone and calls the two cellphones belonging to Agnès and Xavier Dupont de Ligonnès. Each time, the investigator finds the calls go straight to voicemail without ringing. On the two lines, the policeman leaves a message with his name, his rank, his contact details, as well as the reason for his call, requesting to be contacted as soon as possible.
Shortly before 6 p.m., the investigators are once again informed of the “American track” by a couple of Nantes friends, Raymond and Nathalie K., who are also recipients of the “confidential” letter written by Xavier Dupont de Ligonnès. Mrs. K. takes the initiative to call the police. She understands that her friends have gone abroad and wants to reassure the police... who do not need any additional information, they already know the exact content of this letter.
On Saturday, April 16, 2011, at 10:30 a.m., Nathalie K. was nevertheless summoned and heard by the police. She explains, this time orally, that she received this letter on April 9. Then she revealed being a friend of the Dupont de Ligonnès family. She has not seen Agnès since March 29. A detail: her son Philippe, also a friend of Thomas Dupont de Ligonnès, chatted last Sunday (April 10) on the porch of 55 with a friend of XDDL named Emmanuel. She describes the man as also upset by the sudden departure of the whole family from abroad.
At the end of this interview, the police proceed in sequence: they first meet one of Xavier’s sisters, Christine Dupont de Ligonnès, as well as his mother, Geneviève, who share an apartment in Versailles. They ask for confirmation that this letter has been received. After a period of so-called “emotional” wait time, they respond in the affirmative. This letter is also accompanied by a personalized note signed by Xavier.
The police then call the other sister of XDDL: Véronique. She is in the Republic of Congo, where she lives part of the year. She does not believe in the contents of this mailing at all, but she does not show concern.
Among the other recipients of the letter is a key person, whom the investigators summon to their office: Emmanuel T., appointed by Xavier Dupont de Ligonnès himself as the “centralizer.”
The interview is directed by Anne-Sophie R., the same policewoman who will be the impetus for the discovery of the bodies on April 21. The testimony of the missing father’s best friend is rich in new information. He explains that he discovered this famous mail in the mailbox of his Nantes home, placed in an unstamped envelope, on Saturday, April 9 around noon. “Yes, I believed this letter… or more precisely, in hindsight, wanted to believe it,” admits Emmanuel.
This missive is also accompanied by two small personalized notes signed Xavier. On the first, we read affectionate words... and precise instructions:
My old friend, we are going to spend time (for the first time in 37 years) a few years without seeing each other or calling or writing back and forth: it’s going to be weird! Will have to get used to it! I’ll let you take care of a small “administrative” part, once Cédric has done the “manual” part. Everyone has their own domain! LOL. There may be no deposit to recover because the rent for April will surely not be taken. We have withdrawn the max on Agnès’ account before leaving. As for the files in progress (debts that you know about, no more worries. Everything will fall into the water…) LOL Stay there until I come back. I need you. I was not in Savoy this week, but in Paris with the Americans. I came home at night, and we only had one day to pack up and start emptying the house! Hot! Warn Ben that we will not come to make the baptism of shooting planned on the 9. I kiss you very hard. Xav.
Then a second note:
Emmanuel, here are the different files. […] Thank you for taking care of all of this [the termination of various subscriptions and the return of medical equipment used by Agnès for sleep apnea, Ed]. When Cédric and his friends have emptied the house, could you find a cleaning lady? I have left 50 euros in an envelope to pay for it. It is not a matter of cleaning thoroughly but of vacuuming each room.
Emmanuel T. goes immediately to 55 on Saturday, April 9, and notes that the sets of keys to the house are not yet deposited in the hiding place indicated by Xavier in his letter. In the utility meter box, a new handwritten note mentions that the keys will be placed there overnight.
On Sunday, April 10 at 5 p.m., Emmanuel T. returns to the scene. The keys to the house are there. They are accompanied by another note, this time type-written: “Some keys do not work well. You have to wiggle them to open the door. Always leave a set of keys in the hiding place so that others can enter.” He meets Nathalie K.’s son, Philippe, in front of the house, and they chat for a few seconds.
Emmanuel then explains to the police: “I entered the house, but I was afraid of a family drama. His DEA story seemed unimaginable to me. I inspected the house. I didn’t see any damage.” Then he adds: “I returned on Monday, April 11 with Cédric M. I had just got the note that Xavier sent me, asking me to get a housekeeper and ensure the inventory of fixtures. […] I had a house key. I had other keys to my home that I did not want to leave in the EDF meter.”
Sunday, April 17, 2011. Investigators spread their investigations in all directions. Thus, a decision was made to contact the Urssaf (the French distribution system for Social Security benefits); the medical community was also contacted on this day to find out if members of the family could have been the subject of any psychiatric consultations. In another arm of the investigation, two requisitions are ordered from a telephone company to list all the terminals activated by the mobile phones of Xavier and Agnès Dupont de Ligonnès since April 1.
Monday, April 18. The news of the family’s disappearance begins to spread in the city of Nantes, even if the news of the day is more marked by a completely different matter: the arrests of a sect of Saint-Brévin guru and his partner, indicted for rape and sexual assault during a meeting with two of their disciples.
Local journalists are starting to take a closer look at the Dupont de Ligonnès family. They are conducting the very first neighborhood interviews. Meanwhile, the police have been investigating all of the family’s financial movements since April 3, questioning each of the banking establishments where the accounts are open.

A gun in inheritance

At noon, Mathieu Fohlen, deputy public prosecutor, orders the Nantes judicial police to carry out a new visit to 55. They are charged with retrieving photographs of the family members and, above all, a gun! Investigators know now that Xavier Dupont de Ligonnès has a weapon. It is a Unique brand 22 semi-automatic long rifle, which he inherited from his father, who died less than three months previously on January 20, 2011.
This third search lasts an hour and a quarter, between 4:30 p.m. and 5:45 p.m. very precisely. It takes place with the same neighbor doctor as a witness. But, this time, the investigators do not need to call the firemen to enter the house: Emmanuel T., Xavier’s friend, gave them a set of keys.
Two policewomen, Nathalie P. and Anne-Sophie R., carry out meticulous inspection work. Each detail could be crucial. Everything is documented and video-recorded with precision: garbage bags full of shoes, an empty fridge, the presence of a few jars of jam, a tidy dishwasher… On the kitchen floor, they note the presence of a still damp mop and a bottle of cleansing agent placed on the table next to the cellar key. They notice that a map of France is taped to a wall. Cities are circled with felt-tip pen: La Rochelle, Nice, Tarbes, Pau, Auxerre, Aix, Perpignan.


A bottle of Ajax, three-quarters full, is noted on the kitchen counter.
In the living room, an intact chess set sits on a trunk acting as a table. On the sofas, three guitars are stored in their cases. Empty photo frames are scattered on the ground.
The two women go up to the second floor. In the master bedroom, two single beds devoid of sheets are pushed together. A collection of music occupies a large part of the room. In the other bedrooms, the mattresses are also bare - no more sheets or quilts. They notice the presence of a brownish spot on the mattress of one of the children’s beds.
The inspectors backtrack and return to a detail already noted in the kitchen. They state: “The mop is wet with cleanser.”
A mop that is still damp is noted in the kitchen during the third search of the house
They then head out onto the terrace and descend into the yard. “The ground is dirt. Let’s go back to the terrace where we have to bend in half to access the cellar where boxes are stored.” These twenty boxes are filled with bundles of “Crystal” scratch tickets from Xavier’s business.
This third visit does not fulfill its objective: we still have no news of the missing family, and the police have found neither photos nor weapons.
Tuesday April 19, 2011. A new interview of Emmanuel T., around is scheduled for 11 a.m. The latter came to return the last 55 key that he had in his possession- he handed over two more the previous weekend. Cédric M. also has two. A total of five keys will therefore be entered into evidence.
Then, in answering the investigators’ questions, Emmanuel T. made a disturbing revelation: “During our visit to Xavier’s, Monday, April 11 between 4 and 4:30 p.m., Cédric and I went out in the yard. I took a half-opened bottle of Frontignan from the fridge and poured a glass of it, which I left on the terrace table. Cédric told me that he had forgotten his cigarettes.” What an amazing vision of two friends smoking and drinking only a few meters above the two graves where the bodies will be discovered!
Also on April 19, the police gathered elements relating to the family’s heritage. Research is being done to find out if Xavier Dupont de Ligonnès has a boat location along the Erdre River in Nantes. Information is taken from the harbor office of Nantes Métropole. The police have, for the first time, access to the list of the family’s bank accounts, which has just been sent to them. Xavier, personally or professionally, and Agnès have opened numerous accounts in several establishments. And they’re all in the red right now…
The two Labradors of the Dupont de Ligonnès family did not escape the investigators either. Research is being carried out to find out whether the Humane Society has recently taken charge of two new dogs. But they come to nothing: no trace of Jules and Léon, even in the smallest kennel of the Nantes region.

The trigger

Wednesday, April 20, 2011. The family has been actively sought for a week now, and the Nantes press is putting pressure on the floor of the TGI of Nantes. To respond to journalists’ requests, Xavier Ronsin, prosecutor, decides to schedule a press conference at the courthouse for 10:30 a.m. the next day.
But what will the he be able to say in concrete terms? Can he make public the various letters received and present the proposed scenarios, including that of a spy of French nationality working on behalf the US government in the context of international drug trafficking exfiltrated by the United States to a federal witness protection program? One can imagine how perplexing this must have been for the prosecutor. Within the TGI, we understand that it is especially important to highlight the investigation, mainly within the house.
Thus, a fourth home visit is made. This time, it takes place at 10 a.m. in the presence of a magistrate, Mathieu Fohlen. He is accompanied by some investigators from the PJ, including Anne-Sophie R., who has already entered the home twice. Despite the precise description made two days earlier on April 18, they decided to start again from scratch.
What did the magistrate and the police note on April 20? “The general appearance of the house gives the impression of a hasty departure.” They discover a Fichet brand safe key. Several objects and documents are placed under seal, including papers linked to other telephone subscriptions.
In the dishwasher, there are six large and three small plates, cups, and bowls. Everything is clean. The presence of a three-quarter full bottle of a yellow Ajax brand cleanser is noted in the kitchen as is a red cleaning bucket on the ground containing flexible broom that is still wet.
On the refrigerator, there is a telephone number scribbled of someone named D., located in Spain. On the table is a big, old-looking key to the cellar.
The decision was made to sweep the kitchen with Crimescope and Bluestar. These two products are often used in criminal cases to detect traces of blood. The Crimescope is a powerful projector capable of producing very pure lights of varying colors. It is used in grazing white light to look for fibers or hair or, in blue light projected perpendicular on the ground, for traces of DNA (blood, sperm, saliva...).
Bluestar, on the other hand, reveals traces of blood that has been washed, erased, or invisible to the naked eye, but it does not alter the DNA of the blood revealed. The Bluestar reacts positively on the entire tiled kitchen floor, on the broom, and inside the bucket. For the investigators, this reaction should be taken with caution because the Bluestar occasionally gives a false positive.
On a light wooden chair and on a table leg, ten brownish stains, which appear to have been wiped off and could be blood, are also noted. They have an average diameter of half a centimeter.
On a mattress, in one of the bedrooms, a very old blood stain, dry and odorless, is also noted – probably from a nosebleed.
Room after room, the police collect as much information as possible: toothbrushes and razors from the bathroom are placed under seal along with a glass found on a dresser in a bedroom.
Investigators are now able to identify the names of the occupants of the five bedrooms. On the first floor, the bedroom opposite the narrow staircase is that of Arthur; the one on the right, next to the bathroom, is occupied by Anne. On the second floor, the room opposite the staircase is attributed to Thomas; the one on the right, to Benoît. The last is the parents’ bedroom.
The investigators ended their search by searching one of the couple’s cars, which was parked nearby. In the glove compartment, they find the trace of an old bank document concerning Arthur, but this paper does not present anything of interest.
On the other hand, the attention of the investigators focuses on the father’s professional life. They learn that he manages a company, SelRef, based in Pornic, a coastal town 30 miles from Nantes. On site, they go to the obvious: the company appears to be no more than a post office box, and yet Xavier Dupont de Ligonnès, they discover, has not set foot at this address since 2003 or 2004. As for the company’s mail, it has been redirected to 55 boulevard Schuman.
Interviews of relatives are also scheduled, including that of Raymond K., the husband of Nathalie K., already heard on April 16. But nothing particularly important emerges from this mid-afternoon interview.
A few minutes later, at around 4:40 p.m., however, significant information reached the police: the requested report of bank transactions pointed to purchases and expenses made by Xavier Dupont de Ligonnès over the past few days. This information from the banks delivers vital clues: one of the bank cards was used recently to purchase trash bags, adhesive tape, quick cement, and lime. These purchases were made in multiple stores in the suburbs of Nantes. In addition, a card was used to pay a hotel bill in Vaucluse on April 13, and a cash withdrawal of 30 euros was made in the Var, on April 14.
On April 20, the Nantes prosecutor announces the opening of an investigation for a “disturbing disappearance.” Then, a new home visit is scheduled for the 21st. These purchases are disturbing, especially that of lime. It is this last element that will trigger excavations under the terrace because the police know that quicklime is often used for the burial of corpses…

Beginning of criminal investigation

Nantes police station, Thursday April 21, 11:50 a.m.
At the very moment when the forensics team in white coats are busy digging up the first body - and avoiding the contamination of the “frozen” - their colleagues from the judicial branch continue their investigations. Since 10:30 a.m., they are no longer working on a disappearance, but on a crime.
All the steps are taken precisely and methodically.
They immediately interviewed Cédric M., a friend of Xavier’s, a recipient of one of the seven letters sent to relatives, and who entered inside the house ten days earlier with Emmanuel. A garage owner in Morbihan, Cédric very simply recounts what he did on April 11 around 4 p.m. He made the complete tour of Xavier’s house while Emmanuel did not want to go upstairs. He did indeed forget a pack of cigarettes on a table and confirms that Xavier Dupont de Ligonnès had asked him to empty the house.
Then Cédric M., quite spontaneously, threw to the investigators that upon arriving to the station, he heard on Radio France and on RTL that bones had been found in the garden. For him, it is just sensationalist media: “People eat up this crap! They must have been bones that the dogs buried...”
Even if research is now launched all over the region, the Nantes police are concentrating on interviewing “key witnesses.” They want to collect as many pieces of the criminal puzzle as they can. All bank traces received the day before are carefully analyzed. Agnès’ account cards also: a purchase on April 5 at 8 p.m. at a Carrefour Market route de Vannes; a withdrawal of 300 euros on April 7at 4:24 p.m., and a card payment in the amount of 166 euros on April 12 at 6:44 p.m. at the Auberge de Cassagne in Pontet in the Vaucluse.
These scattered elements arrive en masse at the Nantes police station shortly before noon on April 21, just as the extraction of the first body is taking place under the terrace of 55.
Emmanuel T., the best friend of the father who cannot be found, is interviewed a third time. This 51-year-old Dunkerquois without a professional occupation worked until 2009 as a sales manager in industrial cuisine with the Great West company. He knew Xavier Dupont de Ligonnès since the age of 13 or 14 in 1974. With Xavier and another mutual friend, Michel R., who lives near Montpellier, they left for the United States together in the 1980s.
Emmanuel T. insisted on the United States, and in particular on Florida, a state that attracted Xavier enormously. Then, answering the questions, he recalls without going into much detail the extramarital affairs that his friend had confided to him. He reveals that Xavier had affairs with two women named Catherine, one living in Ile-de-France, the other in Savoy.
Then, he confirms that Xavier had just received a letter from the court and asked if it was possible to redirect his mail to Emmanuel’s home, which he agreed to. During the discussion with the investigators, Emmanuel T., whom we imagine is disturbed by this new interview, remembers: “Xavier told me without joking that with the financial difficulties he encountered he could envision “taking the whole family into a definitive solution.”
Emmanuel knows his friend’s financial difficulties. He knows that Xavier owes a lot of money and is unable to repay. Emmanuel says he has already loaned him between 5,000 and 6,000 euros himself. Then, he adds this last disturbing element: just like Michel R., their mutual friend, he received an email with the photo of the Statue of Liberty in the United States with no other indication than this one: “We permanently cease all communication.”
Friday April 22, 2011. Who better than his best friends to know Xavier Dupont de Ligonnès? On this day of the autopsy of the bodies, around 11 a.m., the investigators received a call from Michel R., another one of the recipients of Xavier’s letter referring to his departure for the United States.
Michel R. is not just a simple collaborator of Xavier within La Route des Commercieaux, one of his activities; he is a close friend with whom the wanted father shared many good times. They have known each other for over thirty years.
Michel R. spontaneously explains to the investigators that he spoke with his friend, Xavier, on April 7. He also sent photos on the 5th, dating from a trip they had made together in the United States in the 1980s. He indicated that like Emmanuel T., he had recently received via the Internet a photo of the Statue of Liberty accompanied by this note: “We are definitively ceasing all communication.” Then Michel R. in turn confirms that his friend Xavier is a highly intelligent man. Thus, he considers that during his descent into the South, his friend must have voluntarily used the bank card to locate him, while he had taken care to no longer use the Internet, his cell phone, nor those of his family.
The police know that Michel R. and Emmanuel T. have spoken on the phone many times since they received Xavier’s letter of departure.
Armed with this information, Emmanuel T. was heard again at the beginning of the afternoon. The objective of the investigators is to deepen certain points, in particular on a weapon in Xavier’s possession.
They get the confirmation. “Yes, he inherited from his father a 22 long rifle. Xavier used this weapon to shoot target-practice at a balloon in his back yard. In order to avoid making noise and not to annoy the neighbors, Xavier had purchased a silencer.” The investigation confirms this: Xavier was shooting at the Jonelière stand in Nantes with his best friend Emmanuel. “The last time I saw him was at the shooting range on April 1 around 6 to 6.30 p.m., and with Agnès, it was March 11 at the Nantes restaurant, La Belle Équipe.”
The police are convinced of this: Emmanuel T. knows a lot… They continue the investigation by organizing a search of his home. It takes place between noon and 2 p.m., rue Lavoisière. The neighbors did not fail to notice this police presence. The investigators go directly to the third floor and thoroughly search the F2 apartment where Emmanuel T. resides. They also opened his personal safe, which contained a small wad of bills, his shooting license, and personal papers. They learned that Emmanuel T. owns a 357 Magnum Smith & Wesson revolver. The police will leave with a laptop and a mini-pc under their arm, but also with a file seized from the trunk of his Renault Laguna. This file, forty-four sheets thick, belongs to one of Xavier’s “conquests.” “It was Xavier who asked me to keep this document, which I did,” explains Emmanuel, upset, thinking about his 30-year-old friendship with his mate, Xavier. “I can imagine everything: suicide, hit man…” In this file, confidential documents reveal the existence of a financial conflict between Xavier Dupont de Ligonnès and one of his mistresses.
On April 22, interviews are increasing in Nantes, but also throughout the region. Everyone wants to bring their piece to the puzzle taking shape around this complex matter. Elements, more or less verifiable, are provided on all subjects. Here are four examples, among the dozens of testimonies that have been collected:
  1. Frédéric L., Benoît’s godfather, spontaneously goes to the police station in Arles, where he resides, to explain that he did not see Xavier Dupont de Ligonnès for a long time and that Xavier has a lot of contacts in the United States.
  2. At 12 o’clock, a neighbor of the boulevard Schuman remembers that one night, between midnight and 2 a.m., he heard ten detonations at an extraordinarily regular rate. But this witness no longer remembers the precise date of these shots...
  3. At 3 p.m., a close relative of the family comes to Nanterre and supports two points hitherto unknown to the investigators: Xavier Dupont de Ligonnès’ mistress would be called Claudia, and XDDL would also be an alcoholic.
  4. At 4:45 p.m., a gunsmith from Nantes remember perfectly that two months early, the father of the family, Xavier Dupont de Ligonnès, called himself “sniper priest” (!), and explained that his family was in danger of death. He wanted to buy a handgun to defend himself from a big burly person that threatened him...
Anyway, the investigators will learn that Xavier Dupont de Ligonnès bought a silencer for his 22 long rifle and on March 12, 2011 and ammunition in another armory located in the city center of Nantes.
The police send all this information and considerations, however surprising they may be, to the TGI of Nantes in charge of sorting them out.
On April 23, Xavier Ronsin again appeared before the press and declared “We can now speak of a methodical execution of Agnès Dupont de Ligonnès and her four children. Research has established that Xavier Dupont de Ligonnès had recently inherited a rifle from his father. The pursuit of his investigation and his testimony are obviously essential to precisely determine the causes of these five deaths.”

Source1 Source2
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Cuck Political Report - August '19 Federals

THE MOST ANTICIPATED MOST INSIGHTFUL MOST PAINFULLY COMPREHENSIVE PRESS POST OF THE ELECTION CYCLE IS BACK

Evening y'all. Due to Mika being busy and Shit being a Masshole, it's fallen to me to do the Cuck Political Report. Shit did most of the work but now I have to post it; kinda like how I did all his work for him as Dixie Deputy Clerk :D As always we'll get predictions and analysis from anonymous Senior Party Officials from the four parties. Yes four, the lolbertarians don't count.
Let's get started!
Shame on the dems for not having analysis, we all know Mika would've!!

National Overview

Party House Senate
Democrats Coalition Majority Coalition Majority
Republicans Coalition Majority GOP Majority
Bull Moose Coalition Majority Coalition Majority
Socialists Coalition Majority Coalition Majority

By District

Race Democrat Analysis Republican Analysis Bull Moose Analysis Socialist Analysis
AC-Sen [insert competence here] Soc I'm not entirely sure what came over Dewey when he called for the murder of billionaires, tried to declare war on Russia, impeach two SCOTUS justices, and fund Republican insanity care; maybe he was trying to lose? He debated very well and called Gunnz out but never came up with an effective defence for his more controversial actions which the former Speaker rightly pounced on. A slow day 3 for Gunnz might represent a failed opportunity to put this one away but I think in stunningly close fashion he'll emerge as the victor. Lean GOP God I hate this new calculator. Gunnz, a decent campaigner but a less-than-decent legislator, managed to overcome a 15 (!!) point deficit to keep this race close. After hammering Dewey in debates on a stupid soundbite versus the actual issues, a quantity-over-quality debate performance (see a pattern?) could tip this race to the GOP. However, Dewey has been known to win nailbiters in the Northeast, so I'm going with my gut and calling Lean Soc. Dewey and Gunnz both campaigned hard, but in the end, it looks as if Dewey's campaign events were overall higher quality, as was his debates. Even if the MoE was against him last time, then debates brought him higher either way. Lean Soc
AC-1 [insert competence here] BMP Initial polling no doubt gave the sitting Speaker cause to worry as he faced the man almost single-handedly responsible for the GOP's AC Assembly win. However, as he often does, he rallied hard and vigorously outcampaigned his surprisingly inactive opponent. By the final day the race was no longer competitive. He'll buck the trend of Speakers losing their seats and will cruise to a comfortable but not too comfortable win. Likely BMP Shitmemery was running scared after seeing initial polling, which is why he didn't fall victim to a huge no-campaign debuff. Luckily, a devastatingly strong campaign coupled with an inactive opponent allowed him to come from behind and run up a high score. Solid BMP. House launched a solid campaign, for somebody new to the sim going up against the speaker of the house, it was an impressive run, with the race being somewhat close at times. However, House and the BMP pulled ahead in the end, for a cozy 10 point lead in the previous poll. Solid BMP
AC-2 [insert competence here] Soc The former Republican lightning rod of controversy continued his unusual style of campaigning, including some bewildering debate responses. But he worked extremely hard just like his opponent to keep one of the closest races in a historically bouncy election close as can be. The debate will give Pacman the narrowest win of the evening. Lean GOP New York just can't seem to shake PGF. Despite a completely uninteligible debate from both sides, PGF's sheer quantity of events should overcome the questionable quality enough in order to give him the win. Lean Soc. PGF and Pacman were made for each other. This race was a very close one, with polling showing either candidate winning at times, never a large difference. I believe that maybe PGF has the slight edge, but it really is a tossup. Lean Soc
AC-3 [insert competence here] Dem Two largely inactive campaigners battled it out in a nice and respectful campaign, showing that politics doesn't need to be nasty. The playbook was standard with them both mustering the time to put out 4 events each on the final day, all of mostly respectable quality. The nice guy battle will end in a GOP win, just because I'm biased and Lynx had a small edge (52%) going into the final day. Lean GOP After a few terms on the list, Speaker_Lynx seems poised to come back to Congress with his old constituency to represent once more. Polling always tilted towards the GOP, and coupled with a rather anemic opposition from the incumbent Dem, Lynx should cruise to an easy five-point win. Likely GOP This is a close race, but polling and the debates have shown that GOP have the definite edge here. Lean GOP
CH-Sen [insert competence here] BMP I appreciate how friendly and cordial this race was. One of the most moderate Republicans faced off with an equally moderate Bull Moose, such that they had little disagreements with one another in the debate. Brain brought his A game and worked overtime not only for himself but even managed to sneak in some events for others. Srajar did all he could against my predecessor as Chairman and slowly ate into Brain's lead as he turned on the jets. This one will be close folks, but as the results come in I suspect the BMP will get their second Senator. Lean BMP Hey Prelate: SUCK IT! I had a whole line of attack planned for this race painting srajar as someone who hops from office to office without getting anything done, but turns out I didn't need it because Brain started with a 20 point lead. While Srajar did a lot to narrow the gap, Brain finished strong with a pounding debate response and should bring Chesapeake's other Senate seat home for the BMP. Likely BMP Srajar is a strong candidate, but so is Brain. Srajar seems to have accepted his loss come the senate debates, when he gave shorter and less answers than Brain did. It was in that moment Brain won the race without beyond a shadow of a doubt. Solid BMP
CH-1 [insert competence here] GOP The "Republican of the Month" famous for winning Flash his first ever race (that he promptly resigned and gave to p17r) probably expected to keep his head down and ride to a win with that same work ethic. He brought it, but unfortunately for him ran into RJM3AH who went blow for blow with him and outcampaigned him on the last 2 days by one event. A hard race to call but p17's slight polling lead coupled with higher quality events gives him the edge. Lean GOP p17r, despite having me debunk 90% of the sources he listed as not actually being related to porn as a health threat, decided to copy-paste the same laundry list of sources into the Chesapeake debate thread. I love quality debates! p17r was an active Assemblyman and polling supports that he will come out on top. RJM kept the margins close with a quality campaign but unfortunately that likely won't be enough to bridge the gap. Lean GOP p17r polled consistently better, and in my opinion had a better debate performance. It's for this reason that they have the slight edge. Lean GOP
CH-2 [insert competence here] BMP I like history, so two former Chesapeake Senators battling for a House seat is neat, especially since it was the same seat that Kbelica took after Prussian was banned. In a tremendous disappointment, what started out as a close contest wasn't by the end. Kbelica's disappearance after day 2 and no-show on the debate stage blew an eminently winnable race. Safe BMP Kbelica decided not to run for Senate due to trouble staying active, but instead decided to run for House where he still has trouble staying active. An anemic campaign from the GOP turned a marginal seat into an easy cleanup by Kaiser. Likely BMP Similar to the above analysis. Prussian has polled better, but not only that, Kbelica seems to have completely forgotten to show up to the debate. I would be surprised if Kbelica won, especially under this new calculator. Likely BMP
CH-3 [insert competence here] Dem Dixian turned Chesapeaker Froggy started with a large polling lead but was playing catch up to Cdocwra before he knew it. A critical no-show on day 3 and being outcampaigned on day 4 will be just enough to carry Froggy to victory in a race he very well could have lost. With two of the highest energy BMP campaigners (Brain/Kaiser) in the state routinely helping others, one wonders why they never diverted resources to this race? Was it because Cdocwra was the lone Democrat running in CH? We may never know. Lean GOP ModelUSGov's favorite Brit manages to stave off another GOP opponent, with this race being much closer than the last. Quality events (sadly no singing this time) and a dominating debate will let this race stay in the D column. Lean Dem Cdoc takes this. He had a consistently better campaign, higher quality campaign answers, and gave just as good debate answers as Froggy. He should take this. Likely Dem
DX-Sen [insert competence here] Soc In contrast to LN Senate, this was my turn to be disappointingly shocked as I was convinced Dexter was bulletproof. But Cold, with the full might of the coalition behind him and his record as a prolific bill author, seemingly did the impossible and made Dexter look human. He campaigned hard and unleashed a torrent of activity that would've swallowed almost anyone. I think Dexter had the better events in the end and a dominating debate performance that will give him the heart attack of his life as he inches out a win. Lean GOP Two of the most active legislators in the sim duked it out in the most entertaining spit-swapping makeout match of the cycle. I don't know who deserves the seat more, but neither of them deserve to lose. I predict that, after an early edge and a strong debate, Cold will bring this one home for the Socialists. Lean Soc This is a close one, it pitted two polar opposite, active, party leaders against one another. The race started with Cold in the lead, and the Socs defended their lead throughout the entire race. The debate period was heated, and I think that Cold won it handedly. Remember, Dixie was once a GOP stronghold, I think that this race further shows GOP weakness in Dixie and that the DX senate seat is going to be a better shade of red this election. If I were Prelate, I would be concerned about reelection next federal. Lean Soc
DX-1 [insert competence here] Dem The leader of the Republicans in the Dixie Assembly started out behind and was never able to mount any semblance of an effective or involved campaign. His fellow Assemblyman BNG took no chances and kicked this dead horse until there was nothing left. A no-show on the final day for BNG won't be nearly enough for Tajec, even if he had managed to debate. Safe DEM BNG Continues his streak of carrying the Dixiecrats with another resounding win. The GOP rightfully didn't even try to contest what is likely the safest Dem seat outside of GL. Safe Dem No question about it, this one is obvious. Borednerdygamer is one of the Democrat’s best campaigners, and he opened with a massive amount of personal state mods but also had the coalition bump as well. With other races being far close, it seems the GOP didn’t bother with DX1, resulting in a definite win for BNG. Solid Dem
DX-2 [insert competence here] GOP Ever see Clash of the Titans? If you say you have and didn't follow this campaign you're lying. Two giants of Republican and Bull Moose politics gave it everything they had and put on one of the most impressive duels in sim history. If you wanna know how to campaign and/or debate, this race should be your gospel. Flam's slow but steady approach and rising polling will carry him to a win but Allen shouldn't be disappointed, he would've crushed virtually any other player in the sim. Lean GOP Allen started with a solid lead but got whittled down hard by the GOP's most likely candidate for Minority Leader. Only in Dobs' America, folks. This'll be another nailbiter, but I think Allen will have staved off Flam when the dust has settled. Lean BMP If we were using the old system, I would say lean BMP. Jamawoman, the current BMP chair, put up a strong campaign, and it was obvious that the BMP put through the maximum effort required to win this seat. That being said, the GOP showed up too. Flam is the Minority Whip of the House and a sitting member of the RNC. Flam campaigned and debated well. I think that the BMP will gain this seat, but with a new election system, I cannot be sure. Toss-up (Lean BMP)
DX-3 [insert competence here] Soc I think this is the race that woke everyone up to how different these elections were. Dr0ne dropped 29 points in one day (!!), the largest polling change ever recorded in the history of sim elections. The race became very tight with both sides waging what seemed like a personal war against one another. I want to personally thank Centrist for his remark about rigging elections, we sure made a mountain out of that molehill. At the end of the day, this one is too close to call. Toss-up While the Socialists didn't have a dynamo as capable as Cold campaigning this time around, this race went a little under the GOP's radar despite a day one lead. The Socialists picked up the slack and rebounded, so this race is Likely Soc This is one of the Socialist’s original House seats, and it is one that Party Secretary Cold did not want to lose as it was his seat. Without knowing the true nature of the current system, the GOP gained the lead on day 1; however, they were out campaigning every day after. The Socialists will retain this district, and the future looks bright for Dixie Socialists. Lean Soc
DX-4 [insert competence here] GOP Poor Frosty just can't catch a break. Going from a heartbreaking loss to blockdenied to a battle against a hardworking and thoroughly competent campaign run by someone I've never heard of before; where did he come from? APG put his nose to the grindstone and outcampaigned Frosty 3 days out of 4. Will he inflict the next heartbreaking loss to Frosty? Unfortunately for Chris I can't predict that he wins, but fortunately for him I can't predict that he loses either. Toss-up It's okay, Jarl, 1 in 4 American men have trouble finishing. While this race won't be the 10-point wipe that constitued the last Governor's race, Jarl will still come up a bit short on votes after being outcampaigned by an eager APG. Lean BMP Again, with the new system, it is quite unclear to me how this race is going to go. Both candidates put forth the same amount of effort in both events and debating resulting in a close race. I personally think that the GOP will ultimately win this seat, but again, with this new system, I cannot be sure. Toss-up Lean GOP
LN-Sen [insert competence here] Dem I, and probably everyone else who doesn't have a dial tone where their brain should be, was convinced the somehow PPT was a dead man walking. Coming off a landslide loss for Lincoln Governor that must have snapped him out of it, he worked tirelessly to hold a GOP seat in our worst state. Slowly but surely he ate into Sam's lead until he was the one ahead in the final poll. Sam had a better debate performance that I think will pull this race back to even. Amazingly, what I would've bet the house was Safe not GOP 10 days ago is a Toss-up I HATE THIS CALCULATOR I HATE THIS CALCULATOR I HATE THIS CALCULATOR I HATE THIS CALCULATOR. Sorry, lost it for a second there. This race shouldn't have been anywhere near close. DDYT campaigned poorly after six months of sitting on his thumb on the Senate floor. But here we are. Lean Dem because I think I might genuinely quit the sim if this race goes red. DDYT is the incumbent, imo had better campaign events, and had only ever so slightly worse debate performance. It's not certain by any means, but I think he has the edge Lean GOP
LN-1 [insert competence here] Dem A race featuring one of two only active Libertarians of the election is just as close as the polling suggests. Kingmaker (who apparently abandoned Dixie to go to Lincoln, a move as head-scratching as West Berliners defecting to the East) worked hard and outcampaigned Tucklet on 3 out of 4 days, building a small polling lead that I just don't think Tucklet did enough to overcome. It'll be close, but King will eke out a win. Lean Dem Poor Tucklett can't catch a break, but I really have no sympathy for him. The only winnable race for the GOP in GL was swept away by a subpar campaign, which is strangely emerging as a trend from the party largely seen as the best campaigners. Lean GOP Tucklet put up a strong campaign for someone banned from the sim for quite a long time, but I think kingmaker overall has the better campaign, and in a state like Great Lakes, it would be near impossible for a republican to win. Lean Dem
LN-2 [insert competence here] Dem Top started with a big lead and then decided to play prevent defence and count on it to save him. Unfortunately, Kyle didn't take advantage of the gift-wrapped opportunity and was similarly absent. His fairly inactive campaign won't come close to taking down Top, who rallied late when it appeared he might be in a bit of trouble. The only interesting thing about this race is questioning why the Libertarian polling consistently at 0% decided to do 2 events on the last day. Likely Dem There's really nothing interesting to report here. A stellar Dem candidate curbstomped the Republicans. Wish I could've typed this 17 more times. Solid Dem This one isn't close, Kyle stands no chance and TopProspect put on a good campaign, not being challenged by a serious opponent like Tucklet. This combined with party mods is a solid win. Solid Dem
LN-3 [insert competence here] Dem Remarkably similar to LN-2, the last Democratic Speaker of the House started with a nice lead and perhaps playing the old campaign playbook took it easy. His opponent didn't take advantage just like Kyle and gave Ben the time to alter his strategy and run an effective and high-energy campaign on the last two days. He'll win by a safe margin and this does down as another one the GOP probably shouldn't have, but could've won. Safe Dem There's really nothing interesting to report here. A stellar Dem candidate curbstomped the Republicans. Wish I could've typed this 16 more times. Solid Dem Exact same analysis as GL-2, in all honesty. Solid Dem
LN-4 [insert competence here] Soc Tiger, amazingly for a Libertarian, actually put in effort and ran a respectable campaign. Not nearly enough to win, but when your fellow party members were mostly off picking their nose, it's a low bar to clear. The race ebbed and flowed between the two real competitors and while I think csgo had better event, he was outworked on all 4 days. The very small polling lead of fox will be just enough to pull him across the finish line. Lean SOC Despite choking hard on Day One, the Socialists weren't discouraged and continued to chip away at the Republicans in the most sparsely populated district in the contiguous US. Once CSGO started going, he couldn't be caught by the GOP. Likely Soc Bottled_Fox led a good campaign, and put out more events than csgofan, most of them being of similar quality. In the debates bottled_fox performed solidly, and it would be somewhat of a shock if he lost, especially with the difference of the event count and the emphasis the new calculator has put on that. Likely Soc
SR-Sen [insert competence here] Dem I have never seen two candidates who both wanted to win as badly as Zairn and Ibney, I'm not kidding when I say someone should watch them when results start coming in. Both exhaustively prepared for their rematch and didn't disappoint, dumping literal walls of text on each other in debates and authoring entire codes of legislation in the lead up. A critical day 3 error by Ibney made this race way closer than it needed to be but I think in the end he wins this round of Zairn v Ibney. His unique campaign coupled with specific and pointed critiques of his opponent in the debates will be just enough. Lean GOP There are waaaaay too many close races this election cycle. Did you know that over 50% of House races in America have a margin of over 10%? Why can't we get that here? This race is truly going to come down to whether or not the graders prefer Yu-Gi-Oh or Ouran High School Host Club. If I had to call it though, I would give it to Ibney. Much like Dixie, though, both of these candidates would make stellar, active Senators. Lean GOP As much as I want to say that Zairn will win, this race is without a doubt a tossup. This rematch between Ibney and Zairn pitted the two proud weebs against each other once again. Zairn easily defeated Ibney in a YuGiOh match, but will that translate into an election win? The only thing that we can be sure of with this race is that both candidates are men of high culture and taste, and Ibney has good taste in anime as evidenced by his spoof of Ouran HighSchool Host Club’s opening. (Toss-up)
SR-1 [insert competence here] GOP A beyond weird race that featured huge polling swings (Prog dropped 28 points in one day) and a complete lack of activity. Maybe the Socialists couldn't have won even if they tried, but running a literal paper candidate didn't even have the effect of distracting Prog who responded with only slightly more energy. I can't begin to fathom why the Vice-President showed up at the last minute to help someone who was I guess too busy in MHOC and AustraliaSim. If Prog loses this, we should all nuke the sim. Safe GOP The Sierra GOP really bucked the nationwide trend, and good for them! The Socialists didn't seem to try very hard here, and the SRGOP took no chances when it came to posting event after event. For now, Sierra shall remain a beacon of free market politics. Solid GOP As much as it pains me, AMN did not show up to campaign or debate. The new election system gave the socialists some sense of false hope as they jumped in the polls to put the race into a dead heat; however, by not showing up to debate, AMN all be conceded the election. Hopefully in future elections, these polling discrepancies will be corrected. Solid GOP
SR-2 [insert competence here] GOP In the debates BOOM asked Cuba if he was deceased, Zairn hilariously said what we were all thinking and replied that it was a valid question. Cuba was nowhere to be found and for what it's worth BOOM could've been running against a basketball with a smiley face drawn on and faced a tougher challenge. Why Hurricane bothered to do two events for him is beyond me but it represented a waste of resources on a candidate that invesigators are still determining if he ever existed. Safe GOP Only in a simulation could you have a starklky-red California, but here we are. BOOM didn't have the best campaign, but he had pretty decent mods and an inactive opponent. That combo is enough for him to rack up a big margin on election night. Safe GOP As what happened in SR1, a candidate did not show up to campaign or debate. Boom was already a strong incumbent in the race, but by not campaigning much and not debating, the Democratic candidate all but conceded the race to the GOP. If the Zairn loses his race, the once Democratic stronghold is in danger of becoming a new Republican land, Sierra will be an interesting state to watch next state elections as I am sure the Republicans will put in every effort to win in the state. Solid GOP
SR-3 [insert competence here] Dem Panda had the lead and never looked back, slightly increasing it each time and racking up points in the Sim equivalent of NFL garbage time. Doing 5 events for all 4 days against an inactive opponent might seem crazy but it's always good to be careful I suppose. He'll easily win PresentSale's old district. Oh yeah, PS was here and despite a debate question about himself, didn't show up. Maybe he was recording a very long episode of Heartland? Safe DEM A rare spot of blue in an otherwise red wave in Sierra. Panda campaigned harder than any other Democrat in his state, and luckily for him managed to run in the district that is the chink in the GOP's armor. More events and a stronger debate performance will easily send this race to the Dem column. Likely Dem This is the only safe Democratic spot in the race. The GOP did not invest enough into this race early resulting in an early lead for SirPandaMaster. Both candidates gave comparable debate performances, but the incumbent Democratic looks safe to win this race. Lean Dem
SR-4 [insert competence here] GOP Give Astr0 some credit. He had a huge polling lead and didn't entirely sit on it, always managing to at least show up. When the former Sierra Governor who was removed from office did tighten the race with a surge in the last few days, Astr0 didn't shy away and messaged me endlessly about his campaign. He adjusted his strategy, met the challenge, and will sit as the Representative of America's by far least populous district. Maybe he'll be able to see Russian rocket launches from his house? Likely GOP Astro is probably the best designer the GOP has, but as the past has shown that doesn't always lead to a good campaign. However, this election Astro was able to run away with posters alone and secure the bag for his Party. While it is not his preferred district of SR-2, a seat is a seat and he'll take it fine either way. The Democrats made a decent comeback towards the end of the campaign, but unfortunately for them it won't be enough for a majority. Likely GOP The GOP had the lead early and kept it throughout the race. Bandicoot, Astro, is one of the GOP’s best campaigners, and it showed in the race. Despite efforts by the Vice President, I do not see the GOP losing this one. Lean GOP
 

House Prediction Maps

Democrat Analysis House Map
Republican Analysis House Map
Bull Moose Analysis House Map
Socialist Analysis House Map
 
That's all folks
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FULL Patch Notes Live transcript from PDXCon, featuring CK2, EU4, HoI4, and Stellaris!

TIDINGS FROM CRUSADER KINGS II, PATCHES 2.8.1 AND 2.8.2

TIDINGS FROM EUROPA UNIVERSALIS IV, PATCH 1.25.1

TIDINGS FROM HEARTS OF IRON IV, PATCH 1.5.1 and 1.5.2

TIDINGS FROM STELLARIS PATCH 2.0.1 and 2.0.2

AND NOW, SOME NEVER BEFORE RELEASED PATCH NOTES FROM DISTANT STARS AND THE 2.1 “NIVEN” PATCH!
THANK YOU!
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ZT:[Quora] 谁有可能成为下一个全球超级大国? by 希灵帝国 on 2015-05-28

原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com 翻译:Elyssa 转载请注明出处
谁有可能成为下一个全球超级大国?

Kind of amazing that the US was barely considered a regional power in the 1800s, and then you had a devastating civil war, and I bet a lot of people wrote off the US by the late 1800s.
神奇的是19世纪的美国仅仅被称之为区域性大国,随后其爆发了毁灭性的内战,到19世纪末期相信许多人都将美国从区域大国的名单上挪除。
But then within a span of 40-50 years (in between the Spanish American War and WW2, essentially), the US became a major global player economically, militarily and politically. I don't think most people in the late 1800s era could have called it.
但仅仅40-50年时间里(确切说来是在美西战争与二战之间),美国一跃成为全球经济、军事与政治的主要参与者。这是大多数身处19世纪末期的人们所无法给出的定义。
So my question is: who's next?
我的问题是:谁将成为下一个(超级大国)?

I'm going to throw some names out here, and maybe someone can chime in and tell me if these are plausible for the next superpower in say the next 25-75 years: India, Venezuela, Brazil, Canada, Norway, Iran, Sudan (I know), Nigeria, Australia, New Zealand, Thailand, Vietnam, Myanmar (yup), Malaysia, Indonesia. And I don't mean a regional power. I mean Global Superpower. Who's plausible?
我会在此罗列一些国家,或许有人能够回答这些国家之中是否有谁有希望在25-75年间成为下一个超级大国:印度、委内瑞拉、巴西、加拿大、挪威、伊朗、苏丹(好吧,我了解)、尼日利亚、澳大利亚、新西兰、泰国、越南、缅甸(是的,就是它)、马来西亚、印度尼西亚。我指的是全球性的超级大国,并非区域性大国。谁有可能?
I mean, a totally legitimate answer would be the US, since we still command a ton of natural resources, and though our demographics aren't great, we have such a head start that we might be able to sustain our lead for quite a long time...I'm just not sure, that's all.
我认为,美国应该是一个勿需质疑的答案,因为我们仍控制着大量自然资源,虽然人口规模不大,但我们已处于有利的开局,而这种优势可能会让我们持续领先很长一段时间……我只是有些不确定,仅此而已。
I know this is a tough question. Hopefully Quora comes through!
我知道这个问题有些难,希望Quora能够给我答案!
译者:答案开始前,先说一下这个提问,在Quora上关于超级大国的提问有很多,"谁会成为下一个?""XXX是/会成为超级大国吗?""如果XXX将成为超级大国为什么XXX不现在就毁了她?",等等。上面的这条提问已经很早了,大概是2013年提出的,但是关注量很大,一直到最近一两个月都有人回复,所以可以看到一些情况的变化与趋势。 PS. 我会先翻两个赞成票数最高的,然后按照默认顺序从上往下翻(不确定Quora上的回复是怎么排序的,也许是按最新的评论时间来的?)
评论翻译
原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com 翻译:Elyssa 转载请注明出处 论坛地址:http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-347988-1-1.html
Alex Song, Hedge Fund Analyst (对冲基金分析师) •If you asked people in the 1600s who would be the dominant global power, most would have said Spain. They would have been proven wrong within 100 years. •If you asked people in the late 1800s who would be the dominant global power, most would have said Great Britain: huge empire, coming out of the industrial revolution, huge navy, etc. And they would have been wrong within 50 years. •If you asked people in the 1960s who would be the dominant global power, 50% would have said US, 50% would have said the Soviet Union. Half of those people would have been proven wrong in a short 30 years. •If you asked Americans in the 1980s who would be the dominant global power, I bet 60-70% might have said Japan. They would have been proven wrong in a mere 10-20 years.
• 如果你询问17世纪的人谁会成为主导性的全球超级大国,大多数人会回答西班牙帝国。但100年时间证明了他们的错误。 • 如果你询问19世纪的人,他们会回答大英帝国:(理由是)庞大的帝国与海军,经过了工业革命洗礼,等等。但50年时间证明了他们的错误。 • 如果你询问20世纪60年代的人,50%认为是美国,50%认为是苏联。但短短30年时间证明了上述一半的人的错误。 • 如果你询问20世纪80年代的美国人,我敢打赌60%-70%认为是日本。结果仅仅10-20年这个答案就被推翻了。
Shit happens. And it happens quickly. And that pace has only picked up as globalization takes hold. Maybe it's just me, but I just think that there's a lot of group-think right now and people by nature assume the US or China is going to dominate / continue dominating. And while that may ultimately prove to be correct, I think we should at least try to challenge that assertion. The US is in a very similar situation as Great Britain at the height of the industrial revolution. And this too shall pass. Maybe in 20 years. Maybe in 200.
倒霉事常有,通常来得挺快,并且随着进一步全球化,发生的速度也会加快。也许只我这么觉得,我认为现在有很多人自然地认定美国或中国会持续主导/将要主导(全球)。这也许会成为事实,但我想我们至少应该尝试挑战下这种论断。美国正处在一个同工业革命巅峰时代的大英帝国非常类似的情况之下,它也终将会衰落,也许20年后,也许200年后。
As an investor, I like to think in terms of odds. So here's a mental exercise:
作为一个投资人,我喜欢用概率思考。下面是一个脑力练习题:

Just my two cents. A lot can happen in 25 years.
只是一家之言。25年的时间可能会发生很多变化。
Balaji Viswanathan, History buff. (历史迷) There is no other superpower in the vicinity.
美国之外没有超级大国。
While US influence over the rest of the world is likely to decrease, there is no one else to take up its seat for the foreseeable future. US became a superpower not just because of its economic power. The economy was a part of the puzzle. But, beyond the size of the economy US has 5 key things:
美国对世界其他地区的影响力将会下降,但在可预见的未来将不会有其他国家接过美国的位置。美国成为超级大国并不仅仅是因为它的经济实力。经济实力只是这个谜底的一部分,除此之外,有5大关键因素:
1.Finance. US markets are much more open and transparent than most markets in the world. 2.Entertainment & Information. US brands (from Hollywood studios to Apple, CNN, Google, Microsoft, Youtube,Nike) shape your entertainment/information needs. 3.Defense. Spends more than the rest of the world put together. 4.Education. 70 of world's top 100 universities are in the US. Googles and Apples don't come out of a vacuum. Whether it is a moon landing or Internet or advanced defense warfare, you need education superiority. US is best positioned for an Information-era warfare (hosting most of the major information companies). 5.Energy. The shale has given it an energy security that no other major economy has. China has to rely on oil passing through two most dangerous pirate zones - Horn of Africa and Straits of Malacca.
  1. 金融。美国市场的开放性与透明性远超世界其他国家。 2. 娱乐与信息产业。美国品牌(从好莱坞到苹果、CNN、谷歌、微软、Youtube、耐克)塑造了你的娱乐与信息需求。
  2. 国防。国防支出比全世界其他国家加起来还多。 4. 教育。世界排名前100的顶级大学中有70所在美国。谷歌和苹果并非凭空出现。而无论是登月、网络还是先进的国防战争,都需要教育优势。在信息化战争时代,美国已经有了完美的定位(拥有最多的全球主要信息公司)。 5. 能源。页岩给了美国其他主要经济体所没有的能源安全性。中国所依赖的石油通道则需要穿过两个最危险的海盗区域——非洲之角与马六甲海峡。
At its height, Japan matched the US when it came to economic prowess, but it was never a superpower. US has plenty of softpower that no other major economy has now.
日本在其鼎盛时期,也曾拥有媲美美国的经济实力,但它从来不是一个超级大国。美国现在拥有远超其他主要经济体的软实力。
译者:以下是该楼主的更新部分,应该是在这楼的评论中掐了半天,所以楼主直接上更新了。
1.Cultural reach. Nations exert power over others through culture. From Hollywood to sitcoms, McDonalds to Coca Cola, Apple to Gap, P&G to Google, US exerts an enormous amount of softpower over the world through its brands & broadcasting. These cultural artifacts would make a kid in Kuala Lampur or Kingshasa relate more with US cities than say Chengdu. Tell me how many Chinese brands you crave or how many Chinese TV shows you watch.
1. 文化输出。国家运用文化对他国施加影响。从好莱坞到情景剧,麦当劳到可口可乐,苹果到Gap,宝洁到谷歌,美国通过这些品牌与节目播送对全世界输出了巨大的软实力。这些文化产品能够让远在吉隆坡或者金沙萨(译者:Kinshasa,刚果首都)的孩子轻易联想到美国城市,而非成都。告诉我有多少中国品牌是你想要的,又有多少中国电视节目是你在看的。
2.Cultural infusion. US is far more open to immigration and is a thriving melting pot of multiple cultures. Japan never had that. USSR never had that. China will never have that. The cultural infusion is necessary to keep the wheels of innovation churning. In the 30s and 40s, Jewish immigrants kept the lights in its laboratories. Now, the Russian, Chinese and Indian kids play a big role in the valley. A monocultural Japan & Germany faltered at the start of the information era, while US breezed through - part of it helped by immigrants such as Sergey Brin and Vinod Khosla. China is unlikely to have that advantage.
2. 文化输入。美国对移民更加的开放,是一个繁荣的多文化大熔炉。日本从来不是。苏联从来不是。中国也从来不是。文化输入对保持创新之轮持续转动是必要的。上世纪三四十年代,犹太移民在实验室中彻夜奋战,如今俄罗斯、中国和印度孩子在硅谷中占有一席之地。单一文化的日本和德国在信息时代伊始只能蹒跚前行,而美国早已轻松通过——其中部分得益于如谢尔盖•布林和维诺德•科斯拉这样的移民。中国则不太可能有此种优势。
3.Financial center. US has the democracy and transparency that is essential for the markets. On a given day, you are more likely to trust the NYSE than say SSE (Shanghai). Its bond and stock markets evolved through a century of experiments (in regulation, research and customer education).
3. 金融中心。美国拥有市场所必需的民主性与透明性。你将更倾向于相信纽交所而非上交所。因为它的债券与股票市场已经过一个世纪的实践的演化(规章制度、研究分析与客户教育方面)。
4.Speaking the lingua franca. US speaks the language of the world's educated. Through a combination of reasons (from the extent of the British Empire to Hollywood) English has firmly become the center of the educated world. Mandarin is unlikely to be adopted (given how dissimilar it is to most other languages) in huge numbers by people outside China.
4. 通用语的运用。美国使用的语言全球都在教授。通过一系列的原因(从大英帝国地域范畴到好莱坞的延伸),英语已经稳定地演变成文明世界的中心。普通话则不大可能被大多数中国之外的人所采用(因其与大多数语言的差异性)。
5.Defense spending. It would take a really long time for China to ramp up its defense spending or ally relationships anywhere close to what US has now.
5. 国防支出。中国想要赶上美国现有的国防支出与同盟关系还需要很长一段时间。
6.Historical baggage. Through its long history, China carries a huge historical baggage. Its aggressive posturing is feared more than we fear the US. A kid in Korea, Vietnam, Japan or India is more likely to accept an American military presence in their area than a Chinese one.
6. 历史的包袱。尽管中国有悠久的历史,但它同时背负了一个巨大的历史包袱,其展现出的激进姿态比之美国更让人担心。韩国、越南、日本或印度的孩子更倾向于接受美国驻军国内而非中国。
I will not cover the bigger issue (ageing China) that has been covered already. US will have a much younger population than China in the next 3 decades.
我就不接着论述上面已经提及的一个重要问题(老龄化中国)。在未来30年中,美国将拥有更年轻的人口结构。
In short, China doesn't have most of the advantages that US had in becoming a superpower. China will be a great power, but will never be able to match the US at its heights. More likely, there will not be a superpower in the foreseeable future.
总而言之,中国没有美国曾拥有过的能够发展成为超级大国的巨大优势。中国会成为一个大国,但它永远无法与美国的巅峰时期抗衡。更加可能的结果是,在可预知的未来将不会出现任何超级大国。
US Risks: 1.The fiscal health of local governments (such as Detroit and California) is in a bad state. 2.There is no visible solution being done for the exploding healthcare costs. 3.Education costs are pricing out a sizable chunk of students and putting a big debt burden on the rest.
美国的危机: 1. 地方政府的财务健康问题十分糟糕(例如底特律与加州)。 2. 对于爆发的医疗费用问题,目前还没有任何明显的解决办法。 3. 教育成本则是选出相当一部分学生进行定价,然后把高昂的负债加诸在剩下的人身上。
These 3 are huge problems and I don't see easy solutions. That said, in its 230+ year history, US has gone through many crisis situations and have solved its problems through innovation and entrepreneurship.
上述3个大问题并没有轻松的解决方案。即便如此,在它230多年的历史中,美国曾渡过许多的危机,并通过革新与创业解决了自身的问题。
Let us consider other potential targets:
再来看看其他的潜在目标:
1.Russia. Except for energy & engineering, it doesn't have a lot of strengths (in economy, finance, education, technology, entertainment or political structure) to take it to great heights. 2.India. Too poor. It will take India decades to get firmly into middle income, leave alone high income. Historically, India had little interest in becoming a superpower. Even at its heights, its empires usually kept away from invasions of the kind we know now. 3.Japan, Europe. Rapidly ageing. 4.Southeast Asia. In population, defense, economy, they are all too small. 5.Australia. Small, isolated, limited defense spending.
1. 俄罗斯。除了能源与工程学,它并没有太多优势(经济、金融、教育、科技、娱乐与政治结构)能使其登顶。 2. 印度。太穷。印度还需要几十年才能达到中等收入,至于高等收入还很远。回顾历史,印度几乎没有兴趣想要成为超级大国。在其巅峰时期,其帝国也通常远离我们现在所谓的入侵。 3. 日本,欧洲。人口快速老龄化。 4. 东南亚。在人口、国防、经济方面,规模太小。 5. 澳大利亚。国家小、孤立(于其他大陆)、国防开支有限。
People try to write off US prematurely. The next war will be fought over information/communication superiority. US has the base for it as it controls a big chunk of world's information. NSA's PRISM is just a frightening reminder of the advantage US has. Companies that control world's information such as Google, Twitter, Facebook, Apple, Yahoo and Microsoft are still domiciled in the US and plenty more are coming every day (backed by the world's most advanced Universities). So, don't go about predicting the end of the American superpower status anytime soon.
人们过早的唱衰美国。未来战争将是争夺信息/通讯优势的战争。美国在此有坚实的基础,它控制了全球大部分信息。国安局的棱镜计划则是一个关于美国此种优势的骇人提示。掌控信息世界的谷歌、Twitter、脸书、苹果、雅虎与微软等公司均是注册于美国,并且每天还有大量(由世界顶级名校支持的)新公司诞生。所以,现在预测美国超级大国地位的终结还为时过早。
Samuel Byers, Student, History & PoliSci 历史与政治学专业学生 100 upvotes by I'm going to challenge your assumption that people in the late 1800's had written off the United States as a Great Power:
首先,关于你提出的"19世纪人们将美国自大国名单中挪除"的假设,我表示质疑。
As far back as the 1820's, the ever-prescient Alexis de Tocqueville observed in his landmark work Democracy in America that Russia and the United States were destined by virtue of geography and constitution to each "hold in their hands the fate of half the world."
早自1820年,极富有先知性的亚历克西斯•德•托克维尔就曾在他的代表作《论美国的民主》中提及,俄罗斯与美国基于地理与制度因素将注定"掌控半个世界的命运"。
The growing power of the United States was certainly on the minds of Europe throughout the 19th century. The United States possessed a large (and growing) population, vast tracts of land, and immense natural resources as well as being one of the first countries in which industrialization really "took off" after Great Britain. To pretend that the world was oblivious to or ignored these facts and their implications (that the United States would eventually become one of the foremost powers of the world) is naïve.
对于美国的崛起,欧洲是心中有数的。美国彼时拥有巨大的(增长的)人口,广袤的土地与丰富的自然资源,同时它也是继大英帝国之后第一个工业化并成功"腾飞"的国家。在此假设全世界会忽略掉上述事实与它所带来的影响(美国终将成为全世界最重要的大国之一),也太天真了。
Many people in Europe and her capitals recognized this coming trend. The British indeed recognized their own relative decline at the turn of the 20th century and began to reconfigure their position in the world based on alliances, rather than their own sheer power. Part of this program was a reduction in Royal Navy presence around the globe in order to offset the rise of the German Imperial Navy. To keep order in the sea lanes and protect colonies across the world, the British government aligned itself with Imperial Japan and the United States (two up-and-coming Great Powers who had not played the game of international politics before that) so that at least within its alliance structure it could maintain something of a presence across the globe. (The above paragraph is all a vast simplification of what actually happened, but it serves the purpose of illustrating that the British understood the Americans' potential.)
许多欧洲人都看到了这个即将到来的发展趋势。英国意识到了20世纪初期自身的衰落,它开始在联盟基础上重新调整他们的位置,不再专注自身的绝对权力。计划的一部分是减少英国皇家海军在全球的存在,以此消除德意志帝国海军崛起带来的影响。为维持海上通道的秩序与保护全球殖民地,英国政府与日本帝国与美国(对国际政治完全陌生的2位崭露头角的新生大国)结盟,确保其能至少在联盟基础上维持全球存在地位。(上述是关于这段历史的简要说明,目的在于阐明当时英国是认可美国的发展潜力的。)
To more directly answer your question:
接下来进入正题:
There will not be another superpower, at least not in the foreseeable future. Superpowers — those Great Powers that possess truly peerless global reach and influence — are an anomaly on the international scene, not the norm. The rise of the United States and the Soviet Union as global superpowers was directly predicated upon the Second World War, which transformed them into the great military and industrial powerhouses of the world, and to a lesser extent on the First World War, which felled the great and ancient empires of Europe, making room for the ascent of the new Superpowers.
未来,至少在可预见的未来,将不会有另一个超级大国出现。在国际舞台上拥有无与伦比的全球影响力的超级大国,是一种异态而非常态。超级大国美国与苏联的出现,是建立在二战后他们成为全球性的军事与工业强国,同时一战后欧洲古老帝国的衰落为新的超级大国的出现挪出空间。
After the Second World War, the United States controlled fully half of the world's productive capacity; half of all of the industrial goods in the world were made in the USA. America had been vaulted into the lead over the states of Europe by virtue of being the only major country on Earth that had not been bombed, shelled, and sacked by the opposing armies of the war. By the same token, the US and the USSR both inherited vast, earth-spanning security responsibilities: partly due to their opposition to one another, partly due to the fact that they were the only states remaining with the resources and the state capacity to do so.
二战后,美国控制了全球一半的产能,一半的工业产品出自美国。美国一跃领先各欧洲国家,原因在于它是彼时全球主要经济体中唯一未被轰炸炮击、被敌军洗劫的国家。出于同样原因,美国与苏联同时承担了庞大的全球安全责任:部分源于彼此的敌对,部分源于或许他们是全球仅剩的有资源与实力承担此责任的国家。
This is the root of the superpower system that dominated the Cold War and has continued to dominate the world since the fall of the Soviet Union. During the Cold War, the world existed in a state of bipolarity: two Great Powers stood head and shoulders above the rest of the states of the world, who aligned themselves with one or the other in competing blocs. After the fall of the Soviet Union, a state of unipolarity — domination by a single peerless Great Power — prevailed across the earth.
曾经主导过冷战时期并在苏联解体后持续主导全世界的超级大国系统的根源,便在于此。冷战期间,世界存在两极性:两大强权站立于处于竞争集团中的其他国家的头与肩膀之上。苏联解体之后,世界呈现出由一个不可匹敌的大国统治的单级状态。
Rather than another superpower rising to match the United States as the Soviet Union did or filling the void left when the United States declines (as all states eventually do), I would argue that we are poised to reenter a system of multipolarity much like the one that existed in Europe prior to the First World War. I doubt very much that any of the states you mention on your list (or any not mentioned) will have the wherewithal to become globally dominant. Rather, I posit that each will become more or less powerful in its own region and the machinations of international diplomacy will once again return to a state of competition between numerous locally-powerful peers. Certainly there will still be some states who are stronger and some who are not; some states who can project power to other regions and some confined to their own neighborhood, but no longer will we have a system in which one or two powers stands head and shoulders above all the others.
我不赞同会有另一个超级大国崛起如苏联般抗衡美国,或填补美国衰落后的留白(如历史上的其他国家),我认为世界将会趋于重返一战之前的存在于欧洲的多极化体系。我非常怀疑你们名单上提及的(或未提及的)国家有实力成为全球主导者。不如说是,它们会成为或强或弱的区域大国,国际外交策略将重回众多区域力量之间的竞争。确切说来,这些国家之中有强有弱;有些能将力量投射于其他区域,有些只能局限在邻国之间,但我们不会再有能催生出一个或两个立于世界之巅的强权的体系。
William Petroff 94 upvotes So this is a somewhat complex question made more-so by the assumptions and sub-questions in the details section. I've broken my response into two parts; the first addresses the details raised by the OP, the second looks at various countries' prospects. This is a long answer and one that I'm reluctant to try and distill down into a "tl;dr" version, mostly because I'm reluctant to actually spend more time looking at it.
这个问题有点复杂,里面有假设,也有细节方面的子问题。我的回答会分为2部分:首先处理OP给出的细节部分;随后讨论各个国家的前景。这是一个很长的回复,我试着把它提取成"摘要"版本,其实主要是因为我不想再花更多时间来研究它了。
The contextual issues raised in the question:
引述自提问:(译者:引号内容摘自原文)
"Kind of amazing that the US was barely considered a regional power in the 1800s, and then you had a devastating civil war, and I bet a lot of people wrote off the US by the late 1800s. But then within a span of 40-50 years (in between the Spanish American War and WW2, essentially), the US became a major global player economically, militarily and politically. I don't think most people in the late 1800s era could have called it."
This is almost entirely incorrect. By the mid-1800s the United States was almost certainly a regional power, having effectively defeated Mexico with relative ease in the Mexican-American War.[1] And while the Civil War certainly put a damper on the idea first espoused (or, at least, first noticeably espoused) by de Tocqueville's Democracy in America (again, note the early-to-mid-1800s presence of this idea) that the course of the 20th century would be charted, at least in part, by the United States, his was an idea that would see a revival by the 1870s when the United States accounted for nearly a quarter of the world's industrial output.[2] None of this is to say that everyone saw an "American century" coming (in fact, foreign nations didn't tend to actually send ambassadors to the United States until the early 1890s, instead sending lower-ranking ministers), but rather that it wasn't an idea that was altogether uncommon or unimaginable until the the early 1900s.
这个说法完全是错误的。19世纪中期美国毫无疑问是一个区域性大国,它在美墨战争中轻松击败了墨西哥。[1] 德•托克维尔在其《论美国的民主》一书中首先(或者说,第一个广为人知的该观点支持者)提出了观点"20世纪的世界版图将由美国绘制,至少部分由美国绘制",内战期间这种观点受到了打压;1870年,当美国工业总产出占世界1/4,他提出的观点开始重新流行(再次注意,19世纪初期与中期这种观点已经存在)。[2] 这并不是说,所有人都预见了一个"美国世纪"的到来(事实上,直到1890年其他国家才倾向于向美国派驻大使,而非其他低级别官员),直到20世纪初这种观点才在难以置信的现实中变为事实。
"Cyclical nature of history: does it necessitate a decline of US technical and military dominance...." This part largely becomes a question of semantics. In one sense, the rise of another power necessitates a reduction in an existing power's military dominance, but that might only hold true vis-a-vis that particular country (or a particular region) as it does not necessitate an actual decline in raw power. It's an age old question of relative gains versus absolute gains; yes, the United States my lose power on the relative side, but such a loss doesn't require an actual decline in power.[3]
这个问题更像是一个语义学(译者:逻辑学)的问题。某种意义上来说,一个新势力的崛起必然会削弱现有势力的军事支配地位,但这种情况仅适用于特定的国家(或区域),因为它并不会直接导致原有势力的衰退。这是一个关于相对收益与绝对收益的老问题;当然,美国的相对势力可能会减弱,但这种削弱并不意味着实际力量的减少。[3]
"does it necessitate...an economic decline (following the example of Rome, Spain, Great Britain, Qing China, etc.)?" Again, I'm not sure that it does, especially given the growing interconnectedness of larger economies. And, historically speaking, it once again can become an issue of relative versus absolute gains. For instance, Britain's economy didn't decline when the United States began its rise to prominence as much as it just couldn't realistically make up for the large population difference; there was a relative decline, but no decline in an absolute sense. The nature of the two preceding points is muddied further by the question of America's position in the world in the immediate post-Cold War age; reasonable arguments can (and probably should) be made that the United States was had attained something more than "superpower" status, and that any country's rise need not come at the expense of America's maintenance of a lesser status than it previously enjoyed; in this case, the American "decline" could simply be moving from being a hyperpower to returning to a regular old superpower.
这个问题我还是不太确定,尤其考虑到各大经济体间日益增长的关联度。历史的角度来讲,它又演变成了一个相对与绝对的问题。例如,美国兴起之时英国的经济并没有走下坡,后者只是不能弥补二者间巨大的人口差异(带来的差距);这是一个相对意义上的衰退,而非绝对意义上的。但在后冷战时代美国的全球地位这个问题上,上面两个问题的实质变得有些模糊;合理的推论可以(也许应该)解释为,美国获得了比"超级大国"地位更多的东西,所以其他国家的崛起并不会以美国现有势力减弱为代价;在这种情况下,美国的"衰退"只会是从超级强国退回到原有的普通超级大国地位。(译者:这段的观点有点绕,不确定是否正确理解了楼主的意思。)
"Demographics (my hunch is that if you consider demographics, you have to write off Russia, China, Japan, and a lot of Western Europe: they just can't win. But countries like Thailand / others in SE Asia might win)" Demographics are certainly important, but becoming less and less so to the point that one should not simply exclude countries from the conversation simply because they have a poor demographic outlook. In highly-developed countries (Western Europe, Japan), technological advancement allows fewer and fewer people to do more and more, whether it's making more products at home or doing more damage on the battlefield.[4] Resource-laden countries can also have a particular advantage depending on what their resource is; Russia's energy reserves and China's massive workforce each come with their own benefits that can offset unfavorable demographics. The point is that favorable demographics don't make up for poor underlying fundamentals in the way that good fundamentals can make up for unfavorable demographics.
人口当然重要,但它的重要性在持续降低,所以我们不能简单地因为这些国家的人口前景不理想就将之从名单中排除。在高度发达的国家如西欧与日本,科技的进步允许更少的人承担更多的事,无论是在国内的产品生产还是战场上的减损方面。[4] 资源富有的国家也会因他们所拥有的资源种类获得特定的优势;俄罗斯的能源储备与中国的巨大人口基数,都可以抵消这些不利的人口统计数据。关键在于,好的基本面能弥补不利的人口数据的不足,但有利的人口数据并不能如前者般有效弥补不理想的基本面所带来的不足。
"Natural resources (A nation in Africa / Australia / South America?)" This is a highly contextual assertion. If you're a nation gifted with tremendous energy reserves, it can be helpful because it can give you a carrot that you can use to incentivize certain behaviors and a stick that you can use to coerce intransigent opponents. If you're gifted with basic minerals, it's certainly not a bad thing, but it's not likely to facilitate a rise to great prominence in any significant way. The bigger question is how much does an abundance of natural resources help, as many states with that have a large quantity of natural resources have historically suffered from some form of the "resources curse," inhibiting larger economic growth.[5]
这是一个高语境(译者:背景复杂)的论断。如果一个国家拥有巨量的能源储备,那么是有益的,因为这相当于赋予了你胡萝卜来激励某些行动,大棒来对付强硬的对手。如果是基本的矿产,也不坏,但是不能带给你显著的增长。更重要的问题是,丰富的自然资源能够给予你多少益处?因为前例已表明,许多拥有大量自然资源的国家在历史上一直遭受着"资源诅咒"(译者:一个经济学的理论,多指与矿业资源相关的经济社会问题),阻止了经济的更快增长。
"Is the world different now? Must the rise of the next superpower require military domination and technological domination in the military sense? Or is economic hegemony / soft power enough in today's world?" The world is certainly different, but we're still nowhere near the point where military power is irreverent.[6] At the very least, a superpower needs the ability protect foreign interests and the ability to intervene in conflicts and effectively send belligerents back to their corners. Most countries have foreign interests in today's globalized world and, be they direct interests (think British interests in the Falklands) or indirect interests (think along the lines of the American preference to keep Iraq away from Saudi Arabia during Desert Storm), some sort of armed conflict is almost guaranteed along the way; no matter how far we've come or, perhaps more accurately, how far we think we've come, at some point a superpower is going to have to blow something up. It's not pretty, it's not civilized, but it's the price you pay for prolonging decline and going against the natural ebb and flow of power dynamics. Economic power alone isn't enough because there are often competing economic and philosophical interests involved and economic instruments often don't carry the same sense of finality to a situation that armed aggression does. As for soft power, it's something that takes a very long time to build up. It took the United States nearly a century of innovation and economic expansion, and two world wars to build up enough soft power "capital" to the point where it became a useful tool; nobody else is there yet (and nobody is all that close).
世界当然变得不同了,但军事无用论的观点依然没什么市场。[6] 至少,一个超级大国需要有保护海外利益、介入冲突和有效驱逐敌军的能力。全球化的今天,大多数国家都有海外利益,不管是直接利益(如英国在福克兰群岛)还是间接利益(想想美国在沙漠风暴行动中,优先考量是让伊拉克远离沙特),某种程度上的武装冲突是一种保障;无论我们走了多远,准确说来,是无论我们认为自己走了多远,某种意义上超级大国必然会带来某些冲突。谈不上美好与文明,这是你需要为延缓衰落、对抗权利的自然衰退与转移所支付的代价。只有经济实力是远远不够的,因为经济与哲学的竞争带来的利益互有交融,而经济手段无法取得军事手段所能达到的效果。而软实力,这需要很长时间来建立。就美国而言,花费了近一个世纪进行创新和经济扩张与经历两次世界大战,才最终建立了足够的软实力"资本",并使之成为一个有效的工具;无人得此桂冠(无人能及)。
So what does all that mean?
而这意味着什么?
"...are plausible for the next superpower in say the next 25-75 years: India, Venezuela, Brazil, Canada, Norway, Iran, Sudan (I know), Nigeria, Australia, New Zealand, Thailand, Vietnam, Myanmar (yup), Malaysia, Indonesia. And I don't mean a regional power. I mean Global Superpower. Who's plausible? " Taking a look at those countries (and a few others) shows that, like most of the other answers, I'm not particularly high on any of them. That's not to say that I think the era of superpowers is over, or that they are all incapable of achieving superpower status, rather that I don't know that any of them look all that likely to do so, especially within the short time-frame put forth by the question.
看过你给出的(和其他的)名单,同其他回复一样,大多数的国家我并不认可。这并不是说,我认为超级大国时代已经终结,或者他们无法取得超级大国的地位,而是我并不确定,他们其中的某些是否能成功,尤其在提问给出的如此短暂的时间里。
•China: As long as you don't try and project things too far into the future, China has everything going for it; it has the second largest economy, the second most powerful military that has been undertaking a serious effort to modernize, an absolutely massive labor force, and one of the best governments when it comes to policy continuity. Even taking a brief glance down the road shows that China will, by every indication, surpass the United States and have the world's largest economy within a decade. But after that, it starts to get murky, as there are a handful of really big issues. China's aging population is also incredibly male, meaning that there's going to be a major demographic shift over the next few generations that will have major repercussions over a wide range of areas. The educational system is widely perceived to be lacking. The political system has more or less been predicated on the success of the economy; if that goes south, what happens next is anyone's guess (also problematic is the ever-present possibility of a refugee situation in North Korea). It's geopolitical situation isn't exceptional either; none of its neighbors are exceptionally excited about the rise of China, and none of them are incapable of frustrating China.[7]
• 中国:仅从近期来看,中国具备所有要素:第二大经济体,正在全力现代化的第二大军事力量,异常庞大的劳动力,具有政策连贯性的全球最优政府之一。只粗略一瞥也能发现,很多指示表明,在未来10年中国将会超过美国成为世界第一大经济体。随后,源于一系列重大问题,其前景将变得模糊。中国的老龄人口大多为男性,这意味着在接下来几代人中会有一个重大的人口转变,对大部分地区造成深远影响。教育系统也被广泛认为是不足的。对政治体系的预期大多基于经济上的成功;如果经济下跌,那么谁也说不准接下来会发生什么(还有可能演变成难民的朝鲜也是一个悬而未决的问题)。它的地缘政治状况同样不太理想,没有一个邻国对中国的崛起持欢迎态度,但也没有一个有能力抗衡中国。[7]
•India: India has generally been, along with China, one of trendiest countries to bandy about. And on its face, it doesn't look exceptionally ridiculous; it's got the sexy fundamentals of China's economic growth (long-term and relatively stable positive growth, diversity, a burgeoning technology sector, etc) without the worst of China's demographics (an aging population and massive gender gap). It's got a relatively powerful military, nuclear weapons, and it's got the added bonuses of being the world's largest democracy with a massive English-speaking population. On the flip side, economic inequality is on the rise, India ranks 132nd out of 185 on the World Bank's "Ease of Doing Business" report, lacks much immigration (meaning that there isn't any sort of "pull" to make the world's best and brightest come and live there), has historically suffered from an emigration problem and the flight of human capital (the much talked about "brain drain"), has little to no ability to project power, and has historically pursued a somewhat laid-back foreign policy. India also suffers from being in an absolutely horrible geopolitical location, sharing boarders with China and Pakistan, both of which have a preference to see India weaker rather than stronger.
• 印度:同中国一样,印度被普遍认为是最有可能的国家之一。泛泛而论,它并不是一个无稽的选项;它具有中国经济增长所拥有的引人注目的一面(长期的相对稳定的增长,多样性,新兴的科技行业,等等),却没有中国那么糟糕的人口统计数据(人口老龄化与巨大的性别差异比例)。相对强大的军事力量,核武器,此外还有一项红利它是全球最大的民主国家,拥有大量讲英语的人口。然而另一方面,经济不平等在加剧,在世界银行的"全球经商便利度"排名中印度名列185个国家中的第132位,缺少移民(这意味着,缺少吸引世界上最优秀与最聪明的人们到来与定居的牵引力),始终被外迁移民与人力资源的流出(普遍称为"人才流失")问题所困扰,没什么能力施展军事力量,历来追求懒散的外交政策。同样,印度也位于一个可怕的地缘政治位置,临近中国与巴基斯坦,后两者倾向于一个软弱而非强大的印度。
•Brazil: Much like India, there exists within Brazil serious cultural and socio-economic issues that inhibit the prospects of some sort of ascending geopolitical status; income inequality is a rampant problem, structural issues make it a hard place to do business (ranked 130th out of 185 in the World Bank's "Ease of Doing Business"), and the desire to invest is low. And while it certainly isn't nearly as bad as it used to be, education inequality is still higher than it ought to be. Combine all of that with having to share the hemisphere with the United States seriously diminishes any hope that Brazil could become a superpower.
• 巴西:与印度类似,其国内存在的严重文化与社会经济问题减弱了地缘政治地位提升的前景;收入不平等的问题十分严重,结构性问题使其成为一个经商困难("全球经商便利度"排名第130位)和投资意愿很低的国家。尽管它已不像过去那么糟糕,但教育不平等的问题依然高于合理范畴。上述原因加上与美国同处西半球,大大地降低了巴西可能成为一个超级大国的希望。
•Russia: The last of the BRICs, Russia has some serious energy reserves and an advanced military-industrial complex. But they also have a population that's been in decline, massive corruption, and are almost entirely at the mercy of the price of their energy products for economic growth.
• 俄罗斯:金砖国家的最后一位,俄罗斯有巨额能源储备和先进的军工复合体。但是他们同样拥有一个下降的人口规模,大规模的腐败,和几乎完全依赖能源产品价格的经济增长。
•Canada, Norway, and Australia: Like Venezuela, these countries all have substantial natural resources. All three are also home to much more diverse economies. That being said, all three are also home to a relatively small population (Canada with about 35 million, Australia with about 23 million, and Norway with about 5 million), putting a rather significant cap on economic growth. All three also fall under of America's security umbrella, meaning that domestic military capabilities are somewhat diminished due to a decreased need.
• 加拿大,挪威和澳大利亚:同委内瑞拉一样,这些国家享有丰富的自然资源。三者都是更加多样化的经济体,换言之,也同时拥有较小的人口规模(加拿大有约3500万人口,澳大利亚2300万,挪威500万),经济增长受到极大限制。三者同时处于美国的安全保护伞之下,这也意味着其国内的军事能力由于需求的减少而有所减弱。
•Western Europe: If the European nations could manage to turn the European Union into a truly supranational unit, it would be likely that we'd see a return to a Euro-centric world. But I'm not holding my breath for that.
• 西欧:如果欧洲国家能够将欧盟转变成一个真正的超国家单位,那么极可能我们会看到一个重返以欧洲中心的世界。但我不认为这有可能会发生。
•Venezuela: Venezuela is, more or less, a one-trick pony. Yeah, the oil reserves are certainly a nice thing to have, but that's about all Venezuela has going for it. It's probably no better than 8th or 9th in terms of military power in the western hemisphere, it's home to a government of questionable stability, and it's way behind Brazil in terms of even becoming a regional power. •Iran: A potentially unstable country that has been caught in a five-way struggle between Israel, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and itself for regional preeminence in an exceptionally unstable region. It's got oil, a lot of oil, but that's not even close to being enough. •Sudan: No, just no. •Nigeria: As bad of a region as Iran may be saddled with, Nigeria might have it worse; with countries like the Ivory Coast, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Mali, Chad, and the Central African Republic. I could go on, but that would just be beating a dead horse. Superpowers don't tend to emerge out of tremendously unstable areas.[8] •New Zealand: Everyone should enjoy a good laugh every now and then. This one was mine. •The Southeast Asian countries: It's geopolitics 101, they're all too close to each other, all too relatively similar, and all to close to other larger powers (China, Japan, India) to effectively have any hope.
• 委内瑞拉:某种意义上,委内瑞拉仅靠一招走天下。当然,拥有石油储备是件好事,但这也是其所仅有的。在西半球的军事排名中,委内瑞拉最多不过第8位或第9位,它有一个令人疑惑的稳定的政府,远低于巴西有机会成为一个区域性大国。 • 伊朗:一个被卷入以色列、土耳其、沙特和伊拉克五方争端的潜在不稳定国家,其自身所有高度不稳定区域也居于该地区之首。它产石油,大量的石油,但是远不够让其成为超级大国。 • 苏丹:不会,毫无可能性。 • 尼日利亚:与伊朗处于同样糟糕的区域,不过可能更糟:(毗邻)象牙海岸、塞拉利昂、利比里亚、马里、乍得和中非共和国。我可以继续分析,但感觉就跟鞭尸样。超级大国不会产生自有大量不稳定地区的国家。[8] • 新西兰:你是认真地来搞笑的么? • 东南亚国家:地缘政治因素,它们位置太接近了,其他方面也很相似,和诸如中国、日本、印度等大国太近,很难有希望。
(译者:接下来还有8条注释,略过,因为篇幅太长了……)
Alex Jouravlev, know some History... (对历史有些了解) 49 upvotes I would say US 3.0 (I believe we are dealing with US 2.0 now), and China 3.0 (we are observing China 2.5 at this stage)
我认为是美国3.0时代(我相信我们现在面对的是美国2.0时代),与中国3.0时代(现阶段我们看到的是中国2.5时代)
Various US politicians came up with the famous meme "Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing…after they have exhausted all other possibilities.", and then attributed it to Churchill. For the last two decades US were busy getting deeper into debt, disenfranchising large sections of the population and ruining own foreign standing. Expect that to change rather abruptly at some stage - I don't know what will happen, but something will - Americans will re-invent themselves like they did after Pearl Harbor when they created US 2.0. Those who write US off couldn't be more wrong.
许多美国政治家都深具一种著名的文化基因,可以把它归结为丘吉尔所说的"相信美国会做正确的事。当然,是在他们尝尽其它一切可能之后。"过去20年,美国一直热衷于深陷债务,剥夺大多数人民的公*河蟹*,毁掉自己的外交地位。预期这种情况能在某一阶段得到迅速改变——我不清楚情况会如何变化,但变化是一定的——美国人会像珍珠港事件之后建立美国2.0时代一样重新改头换面。这些唱衰美国的人将大错特错。
China is in the process of building what Hitler and Khomeini failed at - a successful Corporatist state. They will succeed, because unlike the other two they are now leading with results rather than ideology, and because their global plans will affect population that is a fraction of their own.
中国目前正在建设一个希特勒与霍梅尼(译者:伊朗什叶派学者,伊朗革命的政治精神领袖,经全民公投成为国家最高领袖,伊朗政治和宗教上的最高职位。)未能成功建设的——成功的社团主义国家。他们会取得成功,因为不同于前两者中国是结果导向主义而非理论导向,同时他们的全球计划影响的也仅为自身人口的一小部分。
It is economic power will also be asymmetric - instead of challenging US free market hegemony, they will use the numbers and the skills in centralized management to try to build a directly managed empire.
中国的经济实力也是非对称的——他们不会挑战美国的自由市场霸权地位,取而代之的是利用处于集权管理的人口基数与技能来建立一个直线管理的帝国。
China will try to establish off-market relationships: say they will pump you oil for 25 years, in exchange you'll receive 20%, they will build so many miles of roads (map attached), a refinery (specs), school buildings (list of locations) etc. Not a single dollar sign.
中国会建立市场以外的关系:例如他们会为你泵油25年,作为交换你会拿到20%产出,他们会修许多英里的公路(附地图),建精炼厂(附说明书),修学校(附场地列表),等等。不用签订任何美元协议。
China 3.0 can offer dictators around the globe what US cannot - wholesale purchase of their countries. China can build a military base, build mines and factories, supply workers and engineers, bring service personnel, and transfer rent to a Swiss bank account. And veto in UN all attempts to address said dictators.
中国3.0时代能够为全球独裁者带来美国所无法提供的——批量购买他们整个国家。中国能够修建军事基地、矿厂、供应工人与工程师、服务人员、并向他们的瑞士银行户头转租金。此外,一票否决所有试图解决所谓独裁者的联合国提案。
In 5 years expect them to have a couple of carriers operational, one child policy softened, and the policy of taking physical possession over resources, first of all in Africa, become obvious to everyone. Expect different types of Chinatowns to appear around the globe: de-facto ex-territorial enclaves that incorporate military bases but also produce most of the GDP of the host countries, as well as supply the security forces with training, ammunition and occasional air strike. I doubt China 3.0 will face-off with US Cold War-style - expect something more subtle and asymmetric.
预计5年时间,他们会拥有几艘运行中的航母,计划生育政策会松绑,资源的实质占有政策出台,最重要的是,在非洲将家喻户晓。全球会有不同类型的唐人街出现:能为东道国贡献大量GDP的结合军事基地的实际域外领地,为安全部队提供训练,投弹以及偶尔的空袭。我怀疑中国3.0时代会与美国保持冷战对峙——用一种更微妙与非对称的方式。
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