Okay, so I've been trying to find the right place to talk about this since I don't really got anywhere else to talk about it (there's a another place this belongs please let me know).
I'm going to start on the first ps4. For a while now, my parents are pretty big fans of breaking or "disciplining" us if we misbehaved. But as time went on, their discipline did not affect me because I was used to it. Since I would show no reaction like they wanted so, they would result into taking or breaking my belongings. They would always use the same saying, "There isn't democracy in this household, its dictatorship, and you do what we tell you when we tell you." So many times, I've wanted to say, "Every single country that tried dictatorship has failed." But I'm just trying to get the whole situation over with and not be called a dumbass by my dad lol. I can't remember the reason why the first ps4 was broken, but I can remember the last 2, and I will say how and why they did it. The 2nd ps4 I bought was a new one just like the last one with a whole terabyte. It lasted (for a while); fast forward a couple months later, my brother and I get in an argument COMPLETELY not regardless of the ps4. My mom gets mad and says, "Since you guys want to always argue, I'm throwing this ps4 away." We were obviously still mad at each other, but then I noticed what she said and went on to ask why is she throwing out the PS4 I paid for? And she went on to say, "this is my house, and you will do what I say, and this ps4 is a demon." So legitimately continues to throw my ps4 about 5 feet off the ground onto the grass. I was just in disbelief that she just broke my ps4 over something that had nothing to do with it. Onto the next PS4, I obviously lost trust in my family, so I bought a used ps4 with 500gb for $180 (I'm pretty sure I was robbed Lol). The first thing she says when I get the PS4 inside the house, she says, "I can break this one just like the others." I was annoyed, and I just responded, "ill just break your TV" then, and she laughed it off. Obviously, I wasn't going to break the TV because I don't like getting my ass beat by my dad lol. Fast forward a couple months, and I get in an argument with her because I said, "I'll do it right after this match." And for some reason, she decided to unplug my ps4, grab a bat, and in front of the NEIGHBORS breaks my ps4; she believes I'm emotionally attached to the ps4 and its a demon which I am not attached to it at all.. just annoyed my money has been wasted again. "All I said was if you're going to make me watch, at least do it inside without the neighbors watching" after it all. She again discusses how "You do what I say when I say, you should be thankful for all this" and whatnot. At this point, my payback was simple, just stop communicating. I started becoming a lot quieter and not telling them about what I'm thinking and stuff like that, just overall being the quiet kid. I rebought another PS4 cheap, and I kid you not. I got the "I'll break that one also" bs, luckily I still have this ps4, and I've been not using it at all with her inside the house, clearly showing that I don't trust her at all. She realized this and said, "Why aren't you playing?" And I happily responded, "because you might break it." I didn't look at her face because I was on my phone, but all I heard was her leave my room, which actually felt great to finally let them know I don't trust them at all with my belongings. If my new ps4 is broken ill make sure to update this forum, but as for now...I'm grounded from using my ps4, which is new. They grounded me because i was watching TV during class.
After having this post up and replying to many comments I've finally come to my senses...and im truly sad about how i really feel and ive been hiding my feelings to myself, thank you everyone for helping me realize what's wrong with this.
A good amount of people have said "You are addicted" and somewhere around those lines but i will explain why i get so many ps4s. I play the game to be happy and make money, its a source of income for me..not only that, I talk to people on a personal level that do help me with my issue's, gaming isn't always "i better win" the community on PS4 has helped me alot, there was a point where I was suicidal and a middle aged man said "I bet you have it tough, but at the end of all that hardship is a reward that you've earned"
I will never forget what he said, and to this day i talk to him about my issues. I want to make it clear that the main reason for buying a PS4 is not to play games, but to talk to someone, talking to people over a hotline isn't the same as talking to a guy in his 20s or 30s telling you how he overcame his problems. The gaming community is the reason im breathing and I can without a doubt say posting this story on reddit helped me so much on realizing my mistakes and what I should do. While I was reading all of the replies and comments I've came to a point of tearing up because I blocked out everything thats wrong with my family. I couldn't thank everyone enough. Expect for the one guy that said "Stop bitching and grow up" you sir, are the human embodiment of used toilet paper.
I've decided to start saving up my money to leave this toxic house hold. I'm going to try to buy an apartment or find myself a roommate. I dont really want the police involved in my problems as well, mainly because my parents aren't from here so if they get deported it'll cause issues to my siblings aswell. As soon as im 18, I will take alot of other peoples advice and make a separate bank account and block their number for around a year, basically separating myself from their life in general. I had a very long talk with my cousin about my parents and he said exactly "Listen man this is something even my mom has noticed, she was a bit sad you've become numb to the things your mom and dad say to you." He then went on to tell me how my parents treated others, basically being jerks. Again thank you everyone for all the advice and such kind things you've said, it really means alot. I hope I can give you guys a better update in the future. Meanwhile I'm probably going to post stories about my parents around reddit alot.
Edit: I'll post an update but it'll take time, its hard to type all of the events on a phone

A lot of people are asking for gambling advice. Mine would be don’t talk about mythical french dragons. After playing fast and loose with the dark arts, a pipe burst in my basement yesterday and I then found out that the shutoff valves had rusted out. Fun fact : flex tape makes you feel very optimistic when you’re stretching it over a leak but it doesn’t work, and just leaves you with new and creative angles for the leaks. I spent a lot of tiempo mopping my basement and setting things up for the plumbers, so I did miss a bit more of some matches than I’d really want to, which may help since I absolutely ate it on some of the round 3 matches.
Djokovic Khachanov : In an interview this week, Djokovic said, “My head is a perfect oval.” He was right, and it was on display against Galan. The first set was not only perfect tennis but entertaining. Novak (we’re on a first name basis) plays the kind of skillful game when he’s in control that is really enjoyable to watch. Time and time again he’s playing pingpong while other people are stuck covering a tennis court. The match tightened up in the second and third sets with Galan getting deep in a few games, but this was mostly a precursor to Djokovic’s first real test.
I had overlooked Khachanov in this draw because I felt he’d lose to Garin, but he played some great tennis today and his power and serving mean that while he may not have the best chance to win, he’ll certainly have an exciting affair with Djokovic. Garin withdrew from his doubles match a day or so ago and complained of dizziness. The physician was asking him how many fingers he was holding up and while he played pretty solid today, he had a sort of glazed look in his eyes throughout. After splitting sets I rather thought Garin would pull away. While Khachanov boasts a big offense, Garin’s speed makes it look like Khach has few options to score. Garin is just “there” for every shot, but he put a number of balls into the net with his forehand that he usually doesn’t.
Khachanov’s best chance in this match is to reign in the offense a bit. Djokovic thrives when his opponents make errors but sometimes gets frustrated when they make him work. The benevolent racquet applauding dropshot hitting Djokovic wins in style. The grumpy laugh at the sky shake his head smash a racquet Djokovic occasionally drops a set. It’s a testament to how good he is that he’s playing Khachanov and the discussion is “what can Karen do to steal a set”. Djokovic in 3, but this is the first chance for him to really show his level.
Carreño Busta Altmaier : Pablo, or Wobblo (as he’s known by rival trapeze crews) gave RBA a very long day. There were times when RBA took the lead but never for long. Carreno’s power was the big factor here and he hit a number of forehand winners. The inside in forehand he’s hitting is really deceptive and since inside-out is his usual pattern it works doubly well. I’m not sure patterns will be so ingrained in his next opponent as they are in RBA though. Altmaier is the story of the men’s side thus far having not dropped a single set through three rounds that continue to get more and more impressive. He plays very solid, hits hard, and his serving is surprisingly consistent even though it doesn’t seem like the biggest weapon. Berretini, though, refused to play more than a few shots per rally in this one. The first ball he could swing at he hit for winners. The ones he couldn’t drive he went for bailout dropshots. It was difficult watching him be so impatient to win rallies when they’re really nothing wrong with his defense or baseline game. Even in a straight set loss he had multiple looks at getting the lead in this match but there were just too many errors, and Altmaier playing at such a fast pace led to Berretini never really getting out of his rush.
After beating Struff and Berretini, it’s pretty clear that Altmaier will be a threat in this match. The last player to take a set off the hardworking German was Ruben Bemelmans in qualifying, and that result is half a puzzle now considering his consistency. I’m struggle to decide what to expect here. It’s another in a stream of these brand new matchups, which is great for the tour but difficult for anyone “trying” to make predictions. A good point to make here is that this is a reason “touts” and “prediction services” fail. By virtue of always trying to write a story or offer a possible outcome, you overextend beyond what your knowledge is. You come up with defendable positions rather than honest advice. It’s easy to write something convincing about a sporting event. All day long we’re thinking about potential futures in our head that will never come to be. Am I having a moment? Maybe. Perhaps it’s because I’m watching Collins bottle every volley or overhand she earns at the end of any point she’s winning. I learned about the term bottling this week. I’m gonna use it.
PCB should win this. Altmaier has benefitted greatly thus far from the errors of his opponents. PCB made very few of these in his match with RBA, just had a great run at the USO, and is the steadier player. It may take a while, since Altmaier is in such excellent form, but I still lean Wobblo, and maintain that that wire in the 2005 Southern Spain Trapeze Championships wasn’t regulation. PCB in 4.
Fucsovics Rublev : Are there no more lefty clay-courters left for Fucsovics to play? After disposing of ARV and Monteiro without much trouble, Fucovics magical victory against Medvedev is a distant memory. Time for another? Rublev beat Anderson pretty easily, and the bigman’s power during rallies was not much use against Rublev’s ballstriking. The matchup here is Rublev’s offense vs Fucsovics shot tolerance. The big Hungarian, who as we all know is from Nyíregyháza, is probably in the best shape of anyone on tour not named Nadal. He utilizes his speed and strength to really make the baseline small for opponents, and his precision game is something he keeps going with a reserved manner. He’ll never give away a match, and this is a good thing to have in his pocket since Rublev has a history of frustrations and errors. That history though, has not been present since the restart of the tour.
Rublev has been smoking the ball starting in Hamburg and his returning has been half clean winners and half solid returns. There is a good chance he will get into a number of Fucs’ service games and if you’ve ever had a wild squirrel with orange hair inside a duffel bag this is what it’s like to have Rublev in your service games. Squirrel smuggling in 4. I mean Rublev.
Dimitrov Tsitsipas : Oh heckkkkkk yeah. This is really and truly a brilliant round of 16 on both sides. Dimitrov was fortunate to receive an injury withdrawal from Carballes Baena, but he didn’t really need it. The big Bulgarian (who only appears past the second round once a year when the moon is full) has been in rare form this week, winning the matches he’s supposed to win and overall playing very overwhelming and consistent ball. This is what the fans want. I fade these guys at times and discuss their issues with consistency, but I absolutely concede that I would forfeit money to see the talent on display that Grigor possesses. Omg Collins won. How do ya like that. Anyway Dimitrov and Tsitsipas probably have two of the most “similar” games on tour, but one of them does way more with it. Tsitsipas played an injured Bedene who had issues with his ankle, and eventually retired, but similar to Grigor he really didn’t need it. Tsitsipas shrugged off the USO defeat, was good in Hamburg, and has been great so far in this event. Dimitrov’s athleticism and form can keep this one close for a while, but it really seems like Tsitsipas has elevated to another level here, and a rematch with Rublev is incoming. Tsitsipas in 4.
Sonego Schwartzman : Lorenzo Sonego can get things off the top shelf in the supermarket for you. Sometimes you’ll just be eating lunch somewhere in the world and Lorenzo Sonego will just snatch one of ur fries. This dude is lanky goodness, and something about him makes me want to buy a car. Fritz and Sonego played a really good match, and it was a good example of how a player can play 1 bad game and lose in straight sets. Fritz didn’t do much wrong here, but Sonego was excellent on the forehand wing. In the pressure moments he found big shots, and since Fritz wins behind his forehand, this gave him a slight disadvantage throughout.
Diego was down early to Gombos, but the guy manufactures breaks of serve better than anybody on tour. Consistently him, Nadal, and Djokovic are the top 3 in service breaks on tour, plus, he never steals french fries. This matchup is closer than people will expect. Sonego is very comfortable on clay and is solid enough to hang with Diego for stretches. If he serves well, he’ll be able to threaten to win sets. Fritz and Sonego was a long match, but two straight sets victories against servers won’t have Sonego in any fatigue issues. Diego is probably the best player left in the draw who you know won’t win the tournament, but he has a tendency to fall behind early in sets and this could become an issue since Sonego hasn’t really been making errors so far. I don’t like the -700 pricetag, but Diego should be able to break down Sonego’s backhand over the course of the match. Schwartzman in 4-5.
Gaston Thiem : Several times I looked at Gaston and Wawrinka’s match and felt like Wawrinka was playing great but the match was being played at Gaston’s tempo. Wawrinka needs time to set up, and with pauses in the rallies he becomes very difficult to beat. Gaston kept the ball moving though and that lateral war is not something that favors Wawrinka. It shoudn’t hurt him though. What ended up happening to Wawrinka was he played Gaston into the perfect training partner for him, and once Gaston had a read on where Wawrinka was going it became half a waste of time for Wawrinka to be hitting so hard. Fatigue set in in the 5th set, and Gaston honestly was the smarter competitor in this one.
Thiem and Ruud seemed like a high quality affair, but that only lasted for a brief period. Thiem is starting to really pull away late in matches and the reserved composure he plays with early in them has thus far not been solved by any of his opponents. A healthy dose of slices from Steve Johnson sees him losing, but the same strategy from Thiem (largely since he has the other one-handed stroke) sees opponents trapped trying to manufacture angles that feed into Thiem’s best shot. His accuracy when he plays down the line is starting to get real scary, since it was largely a redline shot in 2018 and a 60-40 prospect in 2019. I would say the AO where he beat Nadal was the first time where his backhand down the line was just an automatic point, and really how will people defend that as these long stretches of wins make him more comfortable and more confident? The kid is a monster, and yes tennis he also has a big butt.
Gaston will present the same steady defending and pace to Thiem, but Thiem is a much fitter player than Wawrinka and has a lot more variety/consistency in his game. Thiem in 3.
Zverev Sinner : Here I go hating again. Zverev has become like Fritz for me. I recognize that I tend to devalue their ability and focus on their bad performances/errors, and this skews my judgement. Writing these articles is beneficial for noting leaks like that. In their 3rd round contest though, Zverev and Cecchinato switched roles. Zverev made his first fast start in quite some time (I’d somewhat discount the USO against Thiem because that was more about Thiem being awful to begin) and returned extremely well. He was ripping his forehand crosscourt which is something we haven’t seen from him except in some rare instances late in matches. What went on on the other side of the net though was pretty difficult to watch. Cecchinato was cheated in this match. Nobody informed him of the new ATP rule about the ball having to both clear the net AND land inside the court. He will be filing an appeal, as he avoided both of these things like the plague. Not only did he make a ton of errors, but he took a return position not deep enough to return, and not shallow enough to catch the ball at a decent height. This was the Cecchinato that didn’t win a match for an entire year on tour, and after his first two matches where he was brilliant it is relatively unexplainable why he played this way. Even in this terrible form he was serving for the second set, and the momentum looked to shift but again, he was unaware of the new rules.
Sinner needed two come from behind sets against Coria to win, but he has shown that he is able to consistently produce his offense give the chance, and really what he struggles with is his lateral movement. More so on the forehand wing, but when he’s drawn wide he makes a lot of errors. It’s a similar issue to Kyle Edmund, and it’s partially the extreme grip. If Zverev shows up the same as he did against Cecchinato, he should win this, but even in a terrible lopsided loss, Cecchinato still won 9 games. Sinner will be significantly better, and where Cecchinato couldn’t get an unreturned serve, Sinner has a very competent service motion and can earn easier returns. In the interest of not just picking against Zverev every time, I will point out that Sinner has had fatigue issues late in matches, and Zverev served very well in his previous match. I think there is a big Ferrer factor with Zverev as he has seemed to have a specific gameplan in a few of his matches the past few events. This should be a high octane affair and the victory likely goes to who minimizes their errors. Passive Zverev loses this. Good first serve percentage Zverev wins it. Personally, as a person, I am the sort of person who thinks Sinner is going to win, but not if it goes to 5 sets. Sinner in 4.
Korda Nadal : Korda was probably the surprise of the round for most bettors. Pedro Martinez had been rolling through this draw and has become a very productive player against the 5-150 range of the tour. Korda is very smooth and displays the type of comfort on a tennis court that lets you know he’ll be on tour for a long time. He serve-volleys extremely well, and his forehand is smooth. The trouble with predicting he’d beat Martinez, is Martinez is different from anyone he’d played. Beating Seppi is good, but Seppi is a guy who never really wins a round during the clay season. Beating Isner is great, but Isner’s movement on clay is abysmal and he’s been less than stellar the past season or so. Playing a claycourter who’s been at the top of his game, it’s tough to look and say “Korda’s got this.” Yet, he had it, breaking over and over, and earning a primetime slot against Nadal. Since he’s so early in his career, no result here will be demoralizing for Korda. There’s still that “getting on court with an idol” benefit for him, and though he likely can’t win a set, any service hold or rally won will be a confidence boost for him. All positives here, but Nadal at RG is just a constant drag on his opponents physical reserves. I expect Korda’s serving to falter as this progresses. Nadal in 3.
Halep Swiatek : Anisimova looked good on a few shots early against Halep, showing her easy power. Unfortunately, as soon as Halep moved her she earned an error. This was the same pattern of Halep moving Anisimova over and over, and so the scoreline looks devastating, but it’s really just one issue that Anisimova will have to work on. Her movement on clay needs to improve to challenge the top players. Swiatek and Bouchard was a highly anticipated contest since both had kinda found their games in the restart, but Swiatek was all over her from the start. I am a big fan of underdogs, and on a tour where matches are often decided by a few key points, taking things for granted when backing a favorite is usually costly, but Halep’s defeat of Swiatek here last year was comprehensive. Swiatek is a great player, and her commitment to offense can really get her through tight matches, but Halep’s defending is the sort that there aren’t just endless chances to pick the next shot. She counterpunches with depth and is adept at passing players at net even on the run. Like a tiny Andy Murray, she makes the court seem small, and is perfectly comfortable playing her own offense when the open court presents itself. Halep in 2.
Trevisan Bertens : When you see a baby smile, you smile. It is the same phenomenon with Martina Trevisan. I called her Marta in the last post, and I apologize. Martina smiles from the first to the last point, and it is absurdly refreshing to see someone visibly enjoying their time competing. Sakkari was in full control of their match early, as Trevisan is a generally defensive player, winning by outlasting her opponents and by baiting them into lateral coverage contests. Trevisan was broken serving for the 2nd set but never stopped fighting. She was down multiple times in the tiebreaker but never stopped fighting. Her use of the moonball was exceptional, and Sakkari really missed an opportunity by not moving in on these shots. You’ll make some errors, but giving up court position is almost always wrong. Moonballs are offensive opportunities, and your opponent isn’t hitting them because everything is A ok on the other side of the net. They’re in trouble, and are hoping to buy time. Sakkari seemed throughout this like she’d win. She was really the better player, but her backhand made errors, and as the match descended into constant patterns of attack she found less open court and more smiley lady returns. Trevisan gave me actual joy watching her win her last two matches, and watching her hit her forehand cross court the entire match, then down the line whenever Sakkari bailed out too find a forehand was really remarkable.
Bertens has become a confusing prospect to me, but after a quick dismissal of Siniakova it’s clear she’s not dealing with residual cramping issues from her match with Errani. Trevisan was able to outlast Sakkari, but Bertens presents a more well-rounded attack. I don’t write Trevisan off, but she’s the sort of player who can’t put distance between herself and her opponents. She doesn’t really serve aces, she doesn’t really possess big power, and while she has a great deal of body control in her defending, she does give her opponent the ball to hit. I lean towards Bertens in 2.
Svitolina Garcia : Simple victory for Svitolina against Alexandrova. She hasn’t lost in the last two weeks and Alexandrova’s movement/offense weren’t enough. Garcia was beaten handily in the first set, and I was getting drenched by water coming from the ceiling in the second and third. I can say honestly that beating Kontaveit makes no sense, beating Mertens makes no sense, and now the very low +145 line for Garcia against Svitolina who is great on clay and won the last tournament makes me think she’s in line for another victory, and again it won’t make sense. Garcia makes the kind of errors that professional tennis player don’t make. She seems very awkward at times on her backhand, winding up with her racquet in too close and pulling the ball wide. She struggled early to find the pace of the ball against Mertens and dragged a number of shots long. When she does have her timing though, she crushes the ball. It’s the kind of offense you need to be standing still to execute, but the ball gets through the court quickly, and she tends to go big on returns which can mean a lot late in matches in the WTA.
The puzzle for me in seeing Svitolina listed lower is compounded by seeing that Garcia beat her in their most recent meeting on clay in 2018. Svitolina’s speed and consistency in moving her opponent is the sort of equation that Garcia has consistently lost again. Sometimes though, you have to admit you might be wrong. I lean towards Svitolina ending Garcia’s run here, but I get a similar sense that I did when watching footage of Anderson/Lajovic after being unsure why Anderson would have an edge. I would avoid this one, and I’m still picking Svitolina, but there’s reason to believe Garcia’s run will continue. Svitolina in 2.
Podoroska Krejcikova : Podoroska would be the first qualifier to win a major. That’s how good she has looked throughout her first three rounds, and now she gets a very interesting test. Krejcikova has a slow looking big swing, but the power she lazily seems to generate has shut down her last opponents in the deciding set. It seems like she’s out of it, and in her match against Pironkova she was down a set and looked like she’d be broken and lose in two, but her backhand kept firing, and her forehand was heavy enough to break down Pironkova. Podoroska and Schmiedlova was highly anticipated but didn’t deliver. Schmiedlova’s win against Azarenka seems to have been more about Azarenka, and Podoroska’s offense was in control from start to finish. I haven’t really seen a more noticeable impact player come onto the tour in a while, and though Krejcikova can wear down her opponents, I expect Podoroska to expose her lapses in play where Strycova and Pironkova wore down. Podoroska in 2.
Jabeur Collins : Sabalenka has to be crushed after losing that match. She played exceptional and was only a few inches off on the shots she was missing. After rolling through the second set Jabeur seemed out of this contest, and Sabalenka threatened to break in the third a few times, but Jabeur served well in those pressure moments, serving that we haven’t really seen from her yet this event. The out-wide serve from the duece court was a big factor, and her forehand was crispy. I finished up the day by watching Collins and Muguruza, and it did not disappoint. Collins was the better player in the first set despite being way ahead of Mugu in the errors column. Late in the first set Muguruza had only made 1 forehand error and I had thought Collins solid play and aggressive drives would force Muguruza into errors and that’d be her path to victory. Not so. This was a contest of solid ballstriking throughout, and in the second set Collins missed her targets. She won rallies but lost points, spraying balls wide or long anytime she got a look at a break point. It was hard to watch, and it continued early in the third. She was broken immediately, had a few breakback points and squandered them, and endured one of the longest stretches of missing overheads and swinging volleys that I’ve ever seen. It was 2018 Djokovic level overhead troubles, and the worst part was she was playing excellent and could have been right in the match.
At 3-0 in the third it looked over, but Muguruza serving at 40-15 found a double fault. Then she found an error. Then she found some more double faults. It took a while because Collins was still really choking, but she broke for 3-1. Muguruza really lost her game from 3-1 on, and only notched one more game. Her serve had been excellent throughout, and just disappeared. Her defending had been excellent, but she misjudged balls and found the net. It was a really confusing loss for Muguruza, but the secondary story was how well Collins was hitting the ball. She really crushed her backhand today, and stepped in on every moonball offering Muguruza served up. I would say she hit her forehand inside out less than 10 times in the match, but it was a decent strategy as it kept her in a rhythm.
So can she beat Jabeur? Collins looked a ball off on all her serves today, and actually all her aces in the match were called as lets. If she finds the rhythm, she can run away with this match, as her backhand is so solid and her proclivity for hugging the baseline will challenge Jabeur’s movement. Her issues will be the same here as against Muguruza; when she loses range she tends to play a few games where she hits the ball a few inches too deep, it’s almost as if she needs to remember to control her swing, as I saw her make a visible adjustment in the third where she wasn’t taking such a huge followthrough. This will be a good opportunity for both of them, and both have just beaten an opponent that says that they are genuine title contenders. The names are disappearing from this draw and the players left might not always get these opportunities, but their level of play says they deserve them. Collins in 3
Ferro Kenin : Fiona Ferro was so stressful to watch today. I felt she’d have control against Tig, and I was right but it didn’t translate to a simple victory. Tig is simply a divine defender, and her slices were touted by the announcers as ineffective but they kept Ferro from ever developing any rhythm. Tig wears her heart on her sleeve, and she looks like you stole her baby bunny after she loses points, and screams deafeningly loud after she wins points. It all was a bit distracting from the match, and as the crowd got into it she got a bit more frustrated. After taking a few years off the tour to have one of those babies, Tig really has to be pleased with her restart, and while she lost a lopsided 3rd set, she should have won the tiebreaker, and definitely was the better player in the 2nd set. Tig’s problem in this one was that Ferro seemed to play her best tennis once she was down. Whether it was a break or a break point, Ferro locked down her game when she needed to and although Tig comes up with a lot of great offense when it seemed like she’d never attempt any, she lacks power and is largely just a defensive grinder. The backhand broke down for Tig in the 3rd set, and it was a shame but a great win for Ferro.
Kenin and Bara was a fun match for Bara while she was up 2-0, but from there it was literally all Kenin. Do you think Kenin walks to the store or to walk her dog the same as she does around the court? She’s a legit marcher. She doesn’t seem like the best claycourter, but the round prior she found her range in one set, and in this one she really was excellent. Her backhand is just no place to direct the ball, and she’s begun playing a dropshot down the line off it that pairs so well with her crosscourt offering. Add in a forehand that isn’t huge but has a lot of whip on it, and you have a very difficult ask for Bara. In previous matches Bara’s speed and defending had exposed her opponents, but here since Kenin wasn’t making errors, Bara had difficult scoring points. Her serve left her after she got down in the scoreline, and it was one way traffic.
Ferro and Kenin is a match I expected Kenin to be priced higher in. Oddsmakers have set it as a pickem and while Ferro was great in the third set she really struggled to beat Tig and Kenin’s defense is a similar level but with more power. Stylistically, Kenin’s offense will be easier for Ferro to deal with than it was for Bara, as Ferro is adept at net and has a solid backhand and forehand. The power is there, and she’s very comfortable on clay, but she made a bit too many errors today against Tig for me to see her hitting through Kenin for an entire match. Playing at home though, and given how open her offense will be playing someone who isn’t using so many slices, she’ll be a tough test. Against Rybakina Ferro was excellent, and didn’t make the errors that she did when Tig slowed the game down. I am starting to think Kenin could have a good chance to make the finals though, as her next two matches are ones she should win. Kenin in 3.
Kvitova Zhang : Kvitova really played a great match today. Her stretch forehand created angles over and over, and once she did her backhand power through the court was just unreal reliable. Fernandez was everywhere, and led 5-2 in the first, but Kvitova wore her down, and it wasn’t just power but movement as well. Kvitova has shown up for this event, and pulling victory from a match where she was not on her favorite surface and down early is a very good sign. Zhang was solid today, but I really felt Burel would be a better test for Kvitova. Burel is just plain great. She plays like she’s never had a coach and just understands tennis. She serves well, executes any shot from anywhere when it’s right, and though she seems like a small Lauren Davis type she crushes the ball. It was a tough loss as she seemed throughout the match like she’s cross the finish line, but Zhang basically locked down on defense, and hitting through someone on clay for an entire match is just a tough tough thing to do. Sometimes you play better but lose the match, and that was Burel today.
Kvitova played a better defender in Fernandez, and one with more offense also. Zhang has been playing great, but plays in predictable crosscourt patterns and Kvitova’s power does tend to earn her balls to hit. Barring a similar slow start as she had against Fernandez, Kvitova in 2.
Siegemund Badosa : Siegemund turned around her match against Martic in excellent fashion. She always notches some wins on clay but knee injuries really have kept her from deep runs in the past two seasons. This though is a career changing moment for her. She can beat Badosa Gibert. I don’t say that just because she’s playing so well, but also because even on paper this isn’t an upset for Siegemund. Both are playing very consistent ball and thriving against offensive talents because of it. Ostapenko hit a lot of very angry shots, but every time she loses it’s because of her movement and because of her errors. It’s one plan and that’s ok but the tour is full of defensive tests and that plan isn’t likely to net her any further titles. Badosa is just 20 years old through to her first round of 16 which is brilliant. Someone is going to get their first huge paycheck this event and there isn’t a lot to separate these two. Siegemund has played a lot of offensive talents thus far, and seems to have thrived on moving them as the matches progress. She’s very coherent and measured, but Badosa’s speed may be a major factor in negating that. Badosa also won their most recent meeting on clay last year in a third set. A year’s progress for a junior player can mean a world of difference, and I think the edge sits with her here. Badosa in 3.
PS The requests for possibly more betting advice haven’t fallen on deaf ears. The problem with listing out picks is what I referenced earlier : pick services have an end goal in mind of telling you a defendable story. There is a great deal more than selecting a few matches a day that goes into the process, and unfortunately unless you’re placing the same wagers while livebetting that I am, you’re getting different lines and different results over time. A lot of my decisions tend to reflect my individual status/risk preferences as I go as well, so it’s difficult to just present a comprehensive mirror for people to look at. I’m not saying no though, and I’ve been thinking more about how best to present content that will help ppl avoid losses and traps on the tour, as well as proffer some of the lessons that I learned along the way so that at a minimum, people can save time and skip those hurdles. For the French I’m just going to stick with the writeups, but I’m working on it and will definitely do something next season, and will likely post some generic content/analysis of how the tour’s format/rankings/surface changes lend themselves to some decent spots. Cheers. People say that in Europe.

Source: https://www.bungie.net/en/News/Article/49553
This week at Bungie, we’re consuming stacks of Light.
Within Destiny 2, the exodus of Io, Titan, Mercury, and Mars continues. Zavala has tasked you with spreading word of impending Darkness and keeping our beloved vendors up to speed. There are still a few more loose ends to tie up on these destinations, so get to it.
Along your quest, you’ll have some final chances to earn unique loot and fill out your collections before access to various strikes is impeded by the Darkness.
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While the Traveler may have chosen you, it’s almost time to go beyond the Light. Don’t forget where you came from, though, as we’re celebrating Destiny’s almost-seventh birthday this week! Yeah, we know, it’s been six years. But seven is darker.
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If you haven’t snagged the sweet wallpapers or seen our Stasis deep dives, head on over to our fresh blog article covering the fun! While we're celebrating the past, we're also getting ready for the future.
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Whether you’re a veteran of Destiny or have just been rez’d in the Cosmodrome, thank you for playing, and thank you for being a part of our community.

Suit up

A few TWAB’s ago, Luke Smith took some time to run through changes to our philosophy in doling out rewards through the various activities of Destiny 2. Hit the article again if you’d like a refresher on vanity, cosmetics, and more. Today, we’ll be focusing on core playlist rewards (strikes, Gambit, and Crucible).
To quote the article, here’s what you can expect on November 10:

• We are adding a new set of Armor for the core playlists (strikes, Gambit, and Crucible).
• This armor shares a set of new geometry, with decals and shaders specific to the activity.
• We will create new sets like this each Year (e.g., Year 4, Year 5, Year 6, etc.)
• This set will arrive alongside the next expansion.

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This armor can be earned by completing activities or through vendor rank-ups. Weekly challenges are also being updated to offer avenues for players to earn higher-stat packages for these armor sets.
Additionally, Year 4 will see the return of pursuit weapons. For those of you who may have joined our community in the last Season or two, these weapons have static perks, but allow for some customization. The final two perk columns have multiple perks to choose from, so you can tailor your weapon to your desired playstyle. Our eagle-eyed Guardians may recognize this beauty from a recent Stasis trailer….
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Our goal is to have a pursuit weapon available per Season, earned through a focused quest. Banshee will give you a choice between Strikes, Crucible, or Gambit to earn the base model. Make sure you take a moment to think about how you want to earn the weapon, as you'll be locked in to specific objectives for whichever activity you pick.
Once you finish the main quest, Commander Zavala, Lord Shaxx, and the Drifter will offer you an additional quest which will reward you with weapon ornaments to the theme of their respective activities. If you’re omnivorous and enjoy all three offerings, all three will be available to you.
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So, now that we've caught your eye with some fancy armor and a new sniper, let's take a quick look at how things are changing for core activities as you launch into your new adventures on November 10. Strike, Gambit, and Crucible playlists are being streamlined.
Crucible
Starting in Season 12, the Director will be updated to reduce the number of playlists available at a given time.

• Featured Modes:
  
  • Control
  • Elimination
  • Rumble
  • Survival
    • Both Survival and Survival: Freelance will be available
  • Weekly rotator:
    • Clash, Mayhem, and Showdown
  • Private matches
  • Limited Availability
    
    • Iron Banner
    • Iron Banner: Freelance will make its debut in Season 12.
      • Similar to Competitive, this will be a smaller node next to Iron Banner when the playlist is available.
  • Weekend Availability
    
    • Trials of Osiris
    • Note: Adept weapons, rewarded to those reaching the Lighthouse, return to Trials of Osiris in Season 12. (More details on functionality to come in a Sandbox preview, currently planned for October.)

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Strikes

• Vanguard strikes and Nightfall: The Ordeal will be your two playlist options.
  
  • Each playlist will continue to offer weekly challenges for Powerful loot.
  • Nightfall: The Ordeal will continue to feature matchmaking at lower difficulties, and increased rewards for higher difficulty options.
  • Note: We’re also looking to add Adept weapons to strikes in a future Season. We’ll have updates closer to Season 13 on what to expect.

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Gambit
As covered last week, Gambit and Gambit Prime will be consolidated into a single mode. We have some additional details on specific rule changes, as well as development notes from the team on how things are changing, and the goals behind them.

Hi Gambiteers! We wanted to give you an explanations of rules changes coming to Gambit in November, as well as a key update from last week.
First, some goals we wrote down before we started:

• Build a more approachable Gambit Prime, keeping the one-round format with a longer round, but without the Gambit Prime armor perks.
• Rebalance the motes phase to last 2/3 of each match, rather than half of the match.
• Speed up the Primeval fight (compared to Gambit Prime) to give more of the feeling of a ‘boss rush.’

We started with the Gambit Prime encounters, full stop. However, without the Reaper buffs, the Large bosses that come in enemy waves were too tanky – so we pulled them all down to miniboss or elite. The pacing should feel like how Gambit feels for a pickup group, or how Prime feels for a fully kitted team.
We also playtested the “having the motes” phase target a score of 150, and/or have a heavier mote drain, but this allowed organized teams to steamroll even more effectively – not less. So, we pulled back to the current Gambit Prime mote target and drain.
We started with the Gambit Prime Blockers, but pulled the Taken Captain from the Blocker lineup, as he proved a little too potent for a 10-mote Blocker. We replaced him with the Phalanx, who can be tough to kill, but not as lethal. Since we don’t have the armor perks, we also had to remove the 20-mote Giant Blocker.
We kept the invasions during mote phases at three – just like Gambit Prime – but pulled back the minimum time between invasions during mote phases from 10 seconds to 20 seconds. It never feels good to get invaded back-to-back.
For the boss fight, we started with the Gambit Primeval fight, removed the timed Slayer buffs, increased the Primeval health and potency of the slayer buff given by when killing envoys. We respawn the envoys every 40% damage done to the Primeval – so if you get invaded and the Primeval is healed a lot, you have the opportunity to get more Slayer buffs and catch up. The fight length ends up somewhere in between the original Gambit and Gambit Prime, so we adjusted the invasion timer during the Primeval phase to match – right in between Gambit and Gambit Prime timing.
So, overall this mode will be a little quicker than Gambit Prime – mostly due to shortening of the boss phase and the removal of the larger bosses from the fronts, but one that still gives that great Gambit feeling that you all love.

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We see you’re hungry for info, and we’re excited to bring the heat. As we approach Beyond Light, we’ll have more details on how your weekly rituals are changing. Economy, Eververse, Sandbox, and more. We’re looking forward to talking about things like solo queue Iron Banner, but we have a few things left to tie up as we approach launch.
Stay tuned…

Triumph Trackers

Last week, we announced some changes coming to Triumphs in November. Various Triumphs and Seals will soon become unavailable, leaving you to figure out which things to prioritize before the end of the Season. Partnering with some community API creators, there are now multiple options for you to create a checklist of sorts. Here’s a quick list in no particular order. They’re all amazing, and we hope you find one that suits you best!

• Destiny Item Manager
• Light.gg
• Destiny Tracker
• Braytech.org
• D2Checklist.com

Many thanks to these creators, and we’re excited to see how their portals and communities grow as we begin another year of Destiny content.

The noble quest to vanquish all bugs

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Destiny 2 Update 2.9.2 shipped this Tuesday, and the Player Support team has been prowling the #Help forum in search of fresh bugs to smash. Thankfully, it doesn’t look like there are any major issues cropping up!
This is their report.

COMPANION APP
Early last week, Bungie.net and the Destiny API underwent maintenance. As a result of that maintenance, item transfer performance using the Companion App or third-party apps became roughly 10x faster for most players. The Companion app can be used by all Destiny 2 players on any platform, console or PC.
CONTACT FORMS
Last week, we were investigating an issue with our Contact Forms on Bungie.net. This issue has now been resolved, and players can now use the various contact form to submit help requests on help.bungie.net.
RESOLVED ISSUES
Below is a list of issues that have been resolved with Update 2.9.2 on September 8. The full patch notes for Update 2.9.2 can be viewed here.

• Players will no longer freeze when respawning in Gambit.
• Enemies will no longer stop spawning in Hexahedron area in the Prophecy Dungeon, blocking players from progressing.
• Players who completed Tommy's Matchbook catalyst pursuit will no longer be re-awarded it.
• Redrix’s Broadsword will now be available to reclaim from Collections.
• Players will no longer block quest progress by acquiring Calcified Light without the quest active.

CURRENT KNOWN ISSUES
While we continue investigating various known issues, here is a list of the latest issues that were reported to us in our #Help Forum:

• Player badge counts will sometimes not update when the Season of Arrivals Collections badge is completed.
• The Tribute Hall’s Completionist triumph doesn’t count Season Collections badges.
• Players need to complete the Exodus: Preparation quest before they can begin the Exodus: Evacuation quest for Traveler’s Chosen.
• The Artifact is sometimes enabled in Iron Banner.
• Bounties/progress is sometimes not counted in Iron Banner.

For a full list of emergent issues in Destiny 2, players can review our Known Issues article. Players who observe other issues should report them to our #Help forum.

Stacks on Stacks on Stacks on Stacks

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Have you consumed your daily dose of Light, yet? No? Well, go grab your Traveler’s Chosen and have a stack! I heard it goes well with popcorn, a soda, and a relaxing MOTW.
Movie of the Week: Legends Never Die
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Honorable Mention: Thread the Needle
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Honorable Mention: Wait, that’s illegal!
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Want a chance at the MOTW emblem? Head over to the Creations page and submit your stuff! As a heads up, we’ll be getting a new emblem to hand out for MOTW in Season 12, so shoot your shot before the current offering is gone. More on that in a future TWAB.
It’s weird to think, six years ago I was sitting in my friend’s garage, wrapped in a blanket, playing through Destiny for the first time after calling out “sick” from work. I think my initial character was a Hunter. The cloaks were cool, and the Golden Gun shown in the trailers caught my eye. I had no clue what Rampage was, why Suros was considered good, or why anyone would care about an Exotic Rocket Launcher.
Fast forward to now, we have a massive community with multiple expansions, Exotics, weapons, subclasses, and more under our belts. You’ve fought back the Darkness, lost your Light, met a Wizard that came from the Moon, and more. And now – in only a few months – after looking at beautiful concept art since 2014, we’ll finally sink our boots in the snows of Europa. We’ll also be embracing Darkness abilities for the first time.
I know I’ve said “we’re just getting started” a few times since starting on the Community team… but every release gives us a chance to set off on a new path. Fresh experiences with a sense of wonder, challenges that push you and grow your skill, and opportunities to make new friends along the way. Thanks for joining us on this wild ride.
Now, it’s time for me to hop into Iron Banner as I hunt for a few different rolls on my weaponry. I’ve heard whispers from our Sandbox folk on upcoming changes to 110 Hand Cannons. Might be fun to snag a few random rolls to try out when Beyond Light ships. That conversation is for another time, though. How about next month? We’ll see if this little tease makes it through editorial. If it does, I bet you 200,000 Glimmer that someone makes a five-minute YouTube video about it.
Happy hunting.
Cheers,
-dmg04

Writer: Matt Moore, better known as Hardwood Paroxysm @HPbasketball on Twitter

Full article: The Denver Nuggets Took the Hard Road. Now They’re in the Western Conference Finals.

In the NBA, the origin stories for amazing wins can usually be traced back to the summer. A free agency meeting. Players conspiring to play together. Late-night wine and dines.
This story began in a nondescript arena in an overlooked NBA city in the middle of January during a forgettable season.
The Denver Nuggets were trudging through what was ultimately a 46-win season that came up just short of the playoffs. They had just lost, at home, to the soon-to-be 24-win Atlanta Hawks.
“If this team will just focus, we can be great,” Nuggets head coach Michael Malone told me in the hallways of Pepsi Center. “I believe that. But they have to learn to focus.”
Two years later, inside a quarantine bubble during a global pandemic, playing playoff basketball in mid-September, the Denver Nuggets just became the first team to come back from down 3-1 twice in a single postseason, the latest ending the Los Angeles Clippers’ supposedly charmed run.
The Nuggets were the tougher team. They were the more focused team. And, frankly, the Nuggets were the better team.
In a league defined by the camera flash at the press conference, the Nuggets have reached the Western Conference Finals the hard way. Ground up, from the bottom.
The Clippers’ entire approach this season was to trust in their talent. There will be criticism for head coach Doc Rivers over the coming weeks. But there was no real way for him to build the trust and chemistry he needed to get past a Denver team that has it in spades.
How do you build chemistry when you’ve never hit adversity? How do you work through your weaknesses when you can’t practice because your best player’s whole mantra is load management?
Meanwhile, the Nuggets have kept this core together and it has hit so much adversity through the years … and that’s before we talk about the bubble.

When the Nuggets arrived in Orlando in mid-July, they did not have enough players to practice 5-on-5. Nikola Jokic had tested positive for COVID-19 and was in Serbia. Monte Morris, Gary Harris, Michael Porter Jr., Torrey Craig–four of the Nuggets’ nine-man rotation in Game 7 — were late for unspecified reasons.

That resulted in the team being so short-handed, but needing to practice and work, that the players in the bubble were going heavy minutes first in practice, and then in scrimmages when the other players had arrived but weren’t in condition. Everyone was overworked and exhausted.

Gary Harris went down in practice. Will Barton suffered knee soreness. Jamal Murray suffered an injury.

They were running Bol Bol serious minutes to start scrimmages. They started the playoffs without two starters and didn’t get Gary Harris back until Game 6 of the first round. Will Barton left the bubble to rehab his knee soreness and hasn’t returned.

But they went through it all together. They had suffered disappointing, and sometimes humiliating losses. They had ground through those midseason nights when teams don’t know if they’re good enough. All of that helped the Nuggets learn to trust one another.
In February, the Nuggets went to the Clippers for their second game of the season series. The Clippers blindsided them with a haymaker from the start. By the end of the game, a 132-103 laugher, the Clippers starters were yukking it up on the sideline.
I asked Paul Millsap later about what happened in that game, and after some prodding to get past the thick wall of cliches that Millsap provides to media, he said something that stuck with me.
“We just have to learn how to match the energy of what the other team brings,” Millsap said. “Sometimes in the regular season, you come in thinking it’s a regular-season game, just another of 82, and the other team has different intentions. We’ve done that. You have to be ready for it.”
What’s funny is that Denver still got caught in these playoffs. Their Game 3 effort vs. the Jazz was the worst I’ve ever seen from a playoff team. However, the upset of the Clippers was different. They were exhausted in Game 1 after the seven-game first round series. They lost a coin flip Game 3. They had a disastrous first quarter they couldn’t dig out of in Game 4.
The restrictions of the bubble. The emotional toll of the ongoing social unrest caused by police brutality. Being separated from family. Starting off without half the team. Basketball every two days for two months. Down 3-1, twice.
You don’t overcome that with a good press conference. You don’t overcome that with billboards, or TV market, or preseason expectations.
The Nuggets built their mental toughness and had to earn their spot in the Western Conference Finals the hard way.
President of Basketball Operations Tim Connelly took the hard way.
Connelly had built this Nuggets roster from ground-up. He and his staff, including now-Bulls-lead-exec Arturas Karnisovas had drafted a pudgy Serbian kid who was a passing phenom.
They had took a chance on Murray as a point guard with a scorer’s mentality. They had hired Malone and added supporting pieces, including Millsap, the team’s biggest free-agent signing in franchise history.
But this summer, after all that, home came calling. The Wizards reached out to interview Connelly for their open general manager position. Connelly is from Baltimore, and there were family health issues that meant being closer would be better.
For a man who always says he was just a scout at heart who got an opportunity, it was a chance to take a low-expectations job with a franchise he knew well after working a long time there.
Connelly chose to stay, to try and do the even harder thing: taking a good young team and figuring out how to make them a title contender. That job isn’t complete, the Nuggets will be underdogs to the Lakers (again) and there’s no chance LeBron James lets his off the gas the way the Clippers and Jazz did with a close-out opportunity.
There’s more to do, but Connelly has shown what faith in your own process gets you. No superstar swing-for-the-fences trades (though they tried a few). No miraculous free agent pulls.
“We don’t skip steps,” was the mantra. But that process was only supposed to take them so far, and scouts had asked repeatedly through the season if they really had enough.
“Can Jamal Murray really be a big-time guy?”
“Can you really count on Jokic?”
“Can Malone make enough adjustments?”
Sometimes change is necessary when it’s clear there isn’t a path forward. But the Nuggets are proof that sometimes the best thing you can do is to bet on your team, believe in the work they’ve put in, and learn from your failures instead of running from them.
The Nuggets have finally reached the Western Conference Finals, and they did it the hard way.

Another tournament another app to download. Goot-bye US Open app. Another week of typing F into google chrome before realizing the site starts with an R. The French are classy. But who was Roland Garros? Was he, a fictitious dragon who ruled over the Alps and the Bay of Biscay and all that lay in between? Or was he a French aviator and pilot during World War I? Over the next two weeks, we’ll get to the bottom of this. I know which way I’m leaning.
PS that is Querrey in the photo if you're on mobile, not me
Djokovic Ymer : Novak’s biggest win at the French Open is having Thiem and Nadal on the opposite side of the draw. A healthy reward for the #1 player in the world, and one that will mean a very wide open draw and a very enjoyable snackathon while he watches the other semifinal. Novak, or Snack Attack as he’s known to his close friends and family, will be hungies for this one after a very odd day of frustration against Carreño Busta at the US Open led to a disqualification. Novak won the Rome event with relative ease and is as close to a frontrunner as someone other than Nadal can be at this event.
Ymer has been steadily improving but is still at the top of the challenger level when it comes to clay. This won’t be close, but it’s good to see Ymer stringing together a few seasons of appearances in the majors. Djokovic in 3.
Berankas Dellien : Ricardas Berankas may be closer than he appears. After a good hardcourt mini-swing, Berankas has been absent from the clay warmups. He’s never really been the best on clay although he plays a solid baseline game, and this mostly because while he’s consistent, he struggles to hit through the court on slower surfaces. Dellien on the other hand, does his best work on clay. He’s been losing matches you’d expect him to have a better chance in and hasn’t had many bright points leading up to the break. With Djokovic in the next round and Berankis on his worst surface with minimal warmup, this is a must-win for Dellien. He’s struggled to find the finish line but he’ll have ample chances here, and his defending is similar to Munar’s in terms of lockdown baselining Dellien in 4 or he is likely headed off the tour.
Galan Norrie : This is a brilliant opportunity for Daniel. He’s been hinting at a big run on clay and overcoming a lot of the gatekeepers of the challenger tour, but a lot of third set losses have plagued him, and while it’s considered a short stretch of tour, the clay events are deep with talent. Norrie has ventured to the South American swing once or twice, with relatively poor results. He can be a frustrating opponents at his peak, but his backhand doesn’t get through the court well and he’s just a bit inconsistent with results. He’ll still be a favorite here because playing in the spotlight in a major is something that takes time to adjust to, but Galan will make it close and could eke out a win since he’s still a developing player. Galan in 5.
Sandgren Hurkacz : Sandgren hasn’t had a terrible time on the dirt this year, qualifying for events the last two weeks and unfortunately running into guys who are simply better than him. Almost beating Caruso is a great step, and a year ago that would make him a bit of a favorite to beat Hurkacz. Those of us who watched his matches with Rublev and Schwartzman saw a different Hurkacz from the inconsistent but promising server that’s been exhausting bettors while losing after winning the first set time and time again. Hurkacz was hitting very clean and generating winners relatively easily, and while his serve left him late against Diego, playing a returner like that in a long match will do that to you.
Sandgren and Hurkacz will both be hitting a heavy ball here and looking to hold behind big serves, but one of them has had higher level success in the past few weeks, and I think Hubert, or “Hubert”, as he’s known down at the ‘ol library, has the better serve and bigger groundstrokes. Hurkacz in 3-4, and please when you look at Hurkacz picture him wearing glasses and looking up from his wooden table anytime someone coughs across the room.
Garin Kohlschreiber : This is a good start for Garin, whose physical state is somewhat dependent on Tsitspas. A finals appearance on Saturday will make for a tough turnaround, but I don’t think he’ll withdraw from a major, and given Kohl’s loss to a super-hampered Fognini last week a little bit of fatigue won’t be too much of an issue. That being said, Garin’s game is largely dependent on physical effort and being a ball machine. I would say it’s split 95% that, and 5% having elegant hair. Kohlschreiber won’t just disappear and if Garin is a ghost of himself, he’ll lose, but that’ll be a big dip in level in a short period of time, and the fatigue I expect to hurt Garin’s run at the French is more of a 3rd-4th round type of struggle. Garin in 4.
Humbert Polmans : Polmans name backwards is Snamlop, and that’s important because it’s now the second thing you know about his clay game. Polmans wears a hunting cap and plays a very energetic and consistent game. In normal circumstances he’d have a puncher’s chance, and the lucky losers in tour events are classic for pulling a number of upsets (like Bublik this week) but this is not the spot. Humbert played great in Hamburg and lost early enough that he’ll have a few days to travel and get ready for RG. Humbert in 3.
Vesely Broady : These two will be very happy to play each other first round. Vesely has only just started to eke out wins on this clay swing and Broady has just qualified for the first time, beating Polmans and Kuhn along the way. These aren’t the type of wins that suggest he’ll beat Vesely, but Vesely’s struggles are the kind of thing that could see lower-tier players reel him in. I expect Broady’s timing to be a bit better than Vesely’s to start as he’s had a few matches on these courts, but Vesely really is a tour level player at the end of the day, so I believe both players will have some difficulty pulling away here. Someone in 5. The Vesely that lost to Vukic in a challenger loses. The Vesely that played a decent match against Humbert wins.
Majchrzak Khachanov : If you got into a car accident with a basket full of the alphabet, you miiiiiiiiight get this combination of letters. Kamil just won a challenger in Prostejov, beating some quality players and Andujar in the finals. Everyone who knows Andujar knows he was raised with jaguars, and wins two titles in a row every year then disappears. Majchrzak interrupting this is a very brave feat, but also one that means this isn’t the one-way traffic that a Khachanov Majchrzak match normal would be. The problem for Kamil has been distancing himself against mid-tier opponents, and that is exactly what Khachanov big hitting and aggressive serving have done. Karen struggled against Lajovic last week, but that’s a puzzle he hasn’t solved yet, and likely won’t impact his performance here. He’s got a better shot at excelling in the big moments, and outlasting Kamil’s steady play. Khachanov in 4-5.
Baustista Agut Gasquet : This is a sleeper of a great match. The way Gasquet moves around the court in between points is deceptive given how well he covers the court, and his game looks a bit more devoted to flair than it is to hitting winners. Still, his results over the past decade have been brilliant and his serving is sneaky good at times. Zero warmup matches leading into this is the polar opposite of RBA’s commitment to getting in hard yards on the surface, and that’ll be a big edge for RBA. Not his best surface (I’ll stop harping on this eventually), but RBA is playing some good ball and Gasquet is half a question mark heading into this week. Playing at home and not sporting any visual injury means Gasquet won’t just disappear, but I think rust will be a factor. RBA in 4-5.
Uchiyama Balasz : Uchiyama is most famous for being the inspiration for that Nas song, but his second claim to fame is being a helluva tennis player. Many bettors had genuine panic attacks in his first round loss to PCB in last month’s US Open, and having that fresh in their minds could lead them astray here. Attila Balasz is one of the pure clay specialists on tour, and plays a very unique style of tennis. Tons of dropshots, a strangely effective but flailing backhand, and an affinity for hitting forehand winners from 10 feet behind the baseline are on display from him, as well as one of the best kick serves you’ll see. Given Uchiyama got the business from Duckworth last week, this should be a W for Balasz, who can trouble the winner of RBA/Gasquet but likely can’t win. Balasz in 3.
Pella Caruso : Pella has allegedly been diagnosed with Morton’s neuroma, which is an inflamed nerve in the metatarsal region of the foot. I’ve dealt with nerve issues in the metatarsals after breaking a toe recently, and it is the strangest thing. It’s nonstop pain, even when you’re sitting down, but you can still train. Your foot feels like it’s on fire, but you can still walk and you know nothing is wrong. I’m not sure what treatment he’s getting for it, but the stop and start aspect of tennis is going to really preclude him from doing much on tour while this is an issue, and I believe that’s what is leading to his subpar results since the restart.
Caruso on the other hand has become a household name lately, and although he’s done better on hardcourt than clay in the restart, this is a winnable match for him. I’m just not sold on Pella’s physical ability, and Caruso has the power to break down what is normally a rock-solid defense. Caruso in 3. Disclaimer : There’s a big tendency amongst gamblers to jump on lines because they think they have some injury info. Just keep in mind, the information the general public has is always less than what the books have. If anything, a question mark about an injury is a good reason to avoid betting on a match at all.
Millman Carreño Busta : For a while I thought Millman had a knack for drawing guys he’d have a real war with, but it’s just his style. He doesn’t serve aces but he has a decent serve. He doesn’t hit winners but he swings for the fences on the forehand. He doesn’t have much of a backhand but he puts it in play in decent spots. It’s just very difficult for Millman to overwhelm anyone, and very difficult for players to create offense against what he offers. PCB didn’t look great against Nadal, but two weeks of rest will have him in good shape to compete here. I do expect him to make a decent run at this event, and this is a good test to see where his game is at after a huge payday in the USO. PCB is a professional, but I don’t put it past him to struggle to find form/motivation for a while. PCB in 4-5.
Struff Tiafoe : This is the first line I’ll mention. Tiafoe comes in at +170 for this match, which is much closer than I’d set it. Tiafoe isn’t really a productive player on clay, and lost to local hero Musetti in a challenger last week. Struff blew up with a big lead in the third against Khachanov, and lost quickly in Rome as well, but he’s had some great clay results, and I expect him to come through very well here. The Tiafoe we saw at the USO may be a repeat appearance, but this would be the best win of his career on the dirt, so the line (especially after his loss to Musetti) makes me wary. Struff in 4.
Altmaier Lopez : Altmeir is a challenger level player with a big claycourt game. He plays pretty exclusively on the dirt, and while Lopez is a great server, he may take an L here. Altmaier came through qualifying fairly easily, and Lopez is a wildcard for his effort level and service efficiency, but I’d rather back a qualifier in-form than a maybe of an offensive veteran on a slow surface. Altmaier in 4.
Harris Popyrin : This is a nice matchup, as both of these guys wouldn’t be expect to make the 2nd round at RG very often. I’ve been big on Popyrin’s game in the past, but Harris has had the better win in recent times on clay, beating Caruso in two straight. This will largely be decided by serves, and in the interest of honesty, I haven’t watched many of their recent matches. Popyrin was better for a time, but that seems to have flipped. Someone with their hat backwards in 4.
Pospisil Berretini : Oddsmakers have set the games total for this at 32, which given Pospisil’s serve is a bit low. Vasek is by no means a great clay player, and Berretini is going to make quick work of this, but I do think Pospisil will keep him on court for at least two hours. Berretini in 3.
Medvedev Fucsovics : Spooky line for this one, with Medvedev (who regularly comes in at -1000 against solid opponents) only a 4 to 1 favorite here. Fucsovics hasn’t played any clay warmups and although Med lost to Humbert it was a side event and Humbert played lights out tennis. I guess the premise we’re going with here is that Medvedev’s style isn’t great on clay, but I think he’ll have a good event here as he was a bit more impatient than usual against Humbert. Medvedev in 4.
Mannarino Ramos-Vinolas : If you like lefties who’ve been on tour forever and never change their game, this is the match for you. Local robot ARV has had a disappointing start to his clay season, courtesy of an unexplainably good Bublik. He’s the type of player who generally needs a bit more time to work the point, and doesn’t go for clean winners very often. A bit like a more defensive version of Delbonis, ARV will have a good chance here to get a win. Mannarino has potential to make this close because ARV hasn’t been winning and that mental state is sometimes a difficult hurdle. He’ll also be playing at home which has historically been a huge boost for French players. It’ll depend largely on the condition of ARV’s game, but it will be difficult given Mannarino’s controlled game and ARV’s defense for either player to pull away. ARV in 5.
Halys Giron : These guys just aren’t that good, but they’re in a great section of the draw. Halys has been hanging around the challenger tour, but hasn’t made a great deal of impact. Giron has had a more impressive stretch of wins on tour, but none of them have come on clay. The crowd will help Halys, and I think he’s a bit more comfortable on clay, but Giron is the better player at the end of the day. Not a lot to separate these two. Giron in 5.
Querrey Rublev : I don’t want you to get the wrong idea about Querrey. It’s easy to say he’s washed up or he doesn’t care or he’s only good on grass and fast hardcourt. What’s difficult to do though is to remember that he did this : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W4ICHm96chw&ab_channel=TennisWizard
That is all. Rublev might be coming off a title win, and the courts will be slower, but Querrey’s work on this planet is already complete. Rublev in 4. PS an anonymous source has recently informed me that Rublev’s house in Russia is actually structured like a hamster emporium and he wears a cape and refers to himself only as Tubelev. Vetting my source now.
Monteiro Basilashvili : Monteiro is somewhere fancy winning a challenger as we speak. I love this guy’s work ethic and he plays like he’s Nadal’s wild cousin who mountain climbs and just plays tennis when he’s in town. The forehand is big and he’s going against a guy who hasn’t notched a win since he came back to the tour. Commenting on legal issues isn’t great, but Basilashvili is facing some domestic assault charges back in his home country and there’s some notion that this is not great for his mental state. If they were both at their peak Nikoloz wins, but he’s in the doldrums and Monteiro is winning tons of matches. Monteiro in 3.
Lajovic Mager : Another tough draw for Mager. After getting a motivated Dimitrov he goes up against Lajovic who found his chops last week in a major way in Hamburg. Mager can absolutely crush the ball but he needs some times to find these shots, and Lajovic moves his opponents exceptionally well. A few missed opportunities against Tsitsipas have afforded Lajovic a few days of rest, and he should be good to roll through this one. Lajovic in 3-4.
Djere Anderson : This one of my favorite matchups in the first round. Djere is a great claycourter and plays harder than most when he gets in a rhythm, but he’s been struggling to win matches lately. Anderson’s return from injury has been similar to Nishikori’s as far as results, but not style. Nishikori has struggled to keep the ball in the court. Anderson seems to be able to play his normal game in stretches, but is hesitant to do so. It’s like watching a baby deer test it’s legs out. In a 2/3 format I think Anderson might sprint away, but here I like Djere to make this match physical and beat Anderson, who’ll be happy to go into the indoor season where things are a bit easier on the ol deer bits. Djere in 4-5.
Mayot Davidovich Fokina : Mayot is not the worst, but he’s not the best. Rublev vs Fokina is probably the best 2nd round we’re going to see in this event, and barring injury we’ll get a look at it. Fokina’s loss against Lajovic looked bad since Dusan was slumping, but looking at his form the next few rounds it makes sense. It’s like playing Paire on a day where he makes no errors and serves 16 aces. You come off the court like wait, where’s christmas? ADF in 3.
Shapovalov Simon : Shap had some clay wins that he hasn’t in the past. It’s nice to see the slower surface giving him time to really craft some winners. There aren’t many holes in his game, and he seems to only struggle once opponents settle onto his patterns since he tries to hit through the court on so many shots. When you see the guy shifting to where you’re going there’s a tendency to try to add some juice. Simon’s physical struggles aren’t public, but there’s something off about him. Age/fatigue/injury. I don’t know. The backhand is still beautiful and he’s still a great player, but he just can’t win lately, and this is the wrong opponent to be moving poorly against. Shap in 3. PS if you haven’t seen Shap’s rap video yet don’t see it. It’s not to be seen, like a rare butterfly or a peanut butter jelly sandwich your child hid in their closet for some reason 4 years ago.
Johnson Carballes Baena : Another match I feel good about. RCB is the RBA of ARV. His ability to push the pace without really hitting for winners is a quality the best claycourters all possess. Johnson can play some clay, but usually only in the USA event that consists of hardcourt players playing each other. This will be somewhat close as Johnson is decent on serve and RCB retired from his last match. The appeal of a big check at a major is such that people will make the trip even if they’re not at their best, and this one is RCB’s if he’s healthy, but Johnson’s if he isn’t. No way to pick, but I’m pulling for RCB, as he’ll be the better round 2 against Shap.
Martin Sousa : The hits keep coming. Sousa simply can’t win a match. He doesn’t seem to be playing terribly, just dealing with a huge slump. Martin will know how that feels, as he’s been taking first round losses when he finally makes his way into main tour events for a while. That changed at the start of this year though, and Martin has been a difficult out on clay in recent months. That likely will give him an edge here, and the confidence being based in results rather than in coaches puffery is likely to keep him pushing where Sousa will have doubts creeping in. Martin in 5.
Barrere Dimitrov : Barrere looked like he’d be making a big impact on tour this year before the break. There are some winners and some losers in any sporting revolution, and halting his progress seems to put him in the loser category. Draws are important, and while the solid hitter could have a chance against the new Kanye, this seems to be the old Kanye. Dimitrov tried exceptionally hard to beat Shapovalov in their Rome test, and it was good to see him playing well against even if the overarching idea is that the pinnacle of the tour has kinda passed him by. Dimitrov in 4-5.
Krajinovic Milojevic : Tough pull for Milojevic, who plays excellent dirt and worked very hard to qualify, notching wins against Leo Mayer and Yannick Maden. Kraj is pretty solid on clay and playing his best tennis the past few weeks. He’ll have to work hard to put Milojevic away, but he should do so. Krajinovic in 4.
Bedene Rinderknech : Strasbourg is in France, and Rinderknech is French. I like it. The 25 year old has been doing excellent recently on clay, and it’s nice to see him get a wildcard. Bedene isn’t the type of player who’s unbeatable, and Rinder’s win against Marc-Andrea Huesler (who should be in this event) shows he’s able to compete at tour level. The “home crowd” issue is probably getting annoying to read about now, but there’s some real comfort zone issues with the French players that lets them play comfortably there. Bedene is still a step above, but this could be close. Bedene in 5.
Laaksonen Cuevas : Henri never blinked in the qualifying, and this is a guy who does way more with way less. He trains his fitness at least as hard as anyone on tour, and while his game is pretty one-dimensional, he gets a lot out of it. He reminds me a bit of a local club champion who plays a tour pro and doesn’t just fold up and hope for their adulation. The serve is big and that’s the main weapon, and he’ll need it against Cuevas. Cuevas doesn’t give up much in the way of rallies and uses his variety to expose his opponents. Laaksonen won’t get tired, but he will have difficult ending baseline rallies, and his somewhat predictable approach is something that Cuevas is well suited to defend against. Cuevas in 4.
Munar Tsitsipas : This is a sleeper for an upset, especially with Tsitsipas playing for a title tomorrow. Munar hasn’t shown the type of world-beating dominance I expected him to on clay, because frankly he is a bit small for the tour, but he has a Nadal-level (RIP my inbox) effort on the court. He is rock-solid from the baseline and has a great attitude. Some injuries have hampered his development but even with Tsitsipas playing his best tennis this won’t be a walkover. The huge edge in serving for Tsitsipas means it’ll be tough for Munar to really apply pressure, but I think it’ll be a similar affair as his match with Garin where he seems in control until he begins making errors. Tsitsipas is still prone to shanking random rally balls and returning poorly. After talking up Munar’s chances I still think Tsitsipas may win in straight sets, but it’s one of those matches where I’d never give the spread. Tsitsipas in 3 difficult sets. PS Munar, or Lil Buttons as he’s known in the tennis rap community, buttons all the buttons on his shirt and that’s cute.
Monfils Bublik : Tough draw for both. Monfils has looked half motivated, as if he wants to play but can’t bring himself to until the pressure’s off or it would be an amazing comeback. It’s time to stop looking at these moments as a slump as this is pretty much how he has spent his whole career. When conditions are perfect, he thrives. These are outliers though, not his real level. Bublik won a bunch of sets of tennis this past week and had his chances against Garin. My initial thought looking at this match was that the games total of 35 seemed low. Bublik is likely to hold serve moderately well, and Monfils is likely to get drawn into the skill contest that Bublik represents with his dropshots/serve and volleys/underhand serves. I think this has potential to be the most entertaining match, and while Bublik is looking very good, Monfils has a lot of time here to play himself into a mental state where he can fight. Monfils in 5.
Gomez Sonego : Gomez and Sonego will both like their chances here. Sonego’s been losing, but to quality opponents like FAA and Ruud. Gomez qualified and got a nice article written about him, but his game has been legit and he’s been right around tour level for 2-3 seasons now. Gomez actually beat Seyboth Wild in the qualifiers, which is a huge win. Sonego really hasn’t won many matches, and that’ll be in his head a bit against a qualifier who is hungry to prove himself. Gomez in 5.
Thompson Albot : Our boy Radu hasn’t really been winning much since the tour’s return, which I think puts an asterisk next to the entire sport. It’s bad form for Radu not to get wins, and I believe that’s what Pospisil’s union is mainly focused on. Thompson was awfully disappointing against Coric in the USO, and is pretty bad on clay, but this again is a nice section of the draw with Fritz waiting in round two (I say that now but by the next paragraph I’ll convince myself he’s going to lose). Thompson in 4.
Machac Fritz : Is it legal to cheer? Machac’s recent results don’t say he can beat a player like Fritz, but he has beaten some players who can beat some players who can beat a player like Fritz. Fritz did well against Travaglia, and likely has the edge here. Some home-cooking for the 19 year old will be a factor if he manages to grab a set, but he’ll have to get there on his own and Fritz’ hitting may be a big factor in this one. Fritz in 3-4 but I’ll be crossin my fingas.
Coric Gombos : I see some people on twitter disrespecting my man Gombos. I’m lying, I don’t go near twitter, and only made an account so I can post a portrait of myself. You can view it here :
https://twitter.com/blurryturtle/header_photo
Gombos probably can’t win this, but he is the Gombosiest. Coric in fouric.
Rodionov Chardy : Is Chardy really tryna play tennis anymore? It seems like he’d have been making a retirement announcement this year but the pandemic ruined it. Rodionov did great in the qualifiers and winning is a habit. Chardy has the skill and serving to outclass Rodionov but he just hasn’t been doing the work lately. The upset is somewhat likely in my mind. Rodionov in 4-5.
Moutet Giustino : Local rapgod Corentin Moutet is a tiny little nugget of a player, who plays a big big game. Both have been winning matches lately, and this will be a tight contest. If this gets deep, I like Moutet as his experience winning 5-set matches is a big factor and his game is better after some miles are on both opponents since he thrives on his speed but plays a bit too far behind the baseline. Giustino in 4 or Moutet in 5.
Kecmanovic Schwartzman : We all know Kecmanovic is a great baseliner. He’s one of the tours more competent pushers, but Diego is just a better version of him. Diego was at his best in Rome, and I expect a good run here. Schwartzman in fourtzman.
I feel like there are more matches than usual. Also always nice when they don’t release the qualifier matchups until the day before the tournament. Thus ends my gripes.
Wawrinka Murray : Is it okay if I think they’ll both lose? Wawrinka played one of the funnier challenger events, losing the first set in almost every single round then winning the match and the title. Murray has hinted at the old Murray at times, but fans have grown a bit sadpants when watching him struggle with mid-level tour players. Murray hasn’t played, and Wawrinka looks like he hasn’t wanted to. The edge here goes to Wawrinka, but I expect a great contest as Murray has no quit in him and Stan has shown a prolific ability to find struggle where there is none. Wawrinka in 5.
Koepfer Hoang : Tough wildcard draw for Hoang, though a year ago he’d have been ecstatic. Hoang’s been winning locally, and I wouldn’t sleep on him here. He has a great serve, a big backhand, and is still developing. Home court advantage adds another wrinkle, but Koepfer will likely be physically recovered from his runs in Rome/Hamburg, and he really showed he can elevate his game and cover the court remarkably during that period. Koepfer in 4, and hopefully he’ll be the wakeup call Wawrinka needs in round 2.
Gaston Janvier : Two wildcards playing each other. Good for them. Probably Gaston in 4 (he has the much cooler name/hits a bit bigger)
Nishioka Auger-Alliassime : This one is interesting given FAA’s struggle to find his serving last week. Squishioka can be very frustrating in rallies, but he just hasn’t been able to win matches on clay. Clay is more of a big hitters surface, even though it’s slow. The work ethic is there, but not the offense. A disaster of a day for FAA if he loses this one; I don’t rule it out but it’s unlikely, and Bublik was in great form which explains half the loss. FAA in 3-4.
Ruud Sugita : Ruud has been excellent for years, and now he is looking like a real threat against anyone outside the top ten, and a big hurdle for those inside it. Sugita is a nice guy, but Ruud in 3.
Paul Duckworth : Tommy Paul’s best surface is clay? He really has shown an ability to perform and Duckworth just enjoyed a zipping in his last outing. One way trafffic, and Paul/Ruud in the second round is a great matchup. Paul in 3.
Opelka Sock : Say no to Jack Sock. It is addictive when this half boy/half potato starts winning matches. I think it continues here. Opelka has played no warmups, and moving on clay for such a tall fellow is really tough. He’ll have a tough time hanging with Sock’s pace, and the easier opponent (defensively) is likely to make Sock really focus on hitting to the open court. Sock in 4.
Honestly you’d tell me if there’s extra matches right? I feel like some guys are playing twice.
Cilic Thiem : Cilic is going to be sick of Thiem by the end of this one, but as a fan this is the perfect early round for Thiem. After playing no warmup matches the concern is rust, and so I’m excited to see Thiem have a match where he has to work right away. Typing that makes me a bit scared, as Cilic has played some ok tennis in the warmup, beating Goffin 2, 2. Still, this sub’s affinity for Thiem’s tumbly bum won’t let him lose in the first round, and as he gets going I think we’ll see him kinda shape into a threat for the title. Thiem in 4.
Zverev Novak : Novak isn’t great on clay. Trouble is, neither is Zverev. After a major finals, I don’t picture a guy like Zverev coming in with a smaller ego. I think there will be some harrowing moments in this, and if Herbert plays well in round one I like him to take at least two sets off Zverev. Zverev in 4-5, and I’m interested to see if he’s on the “slow start gradual turnup” path again, as that’s a terrible plan on clay for a guy who’s prone to frustration.
Mmoh Herbert : Mmoh did well to qualify, besting Renzo Olivo. Add in that Hyeon Chung was in their draw, and you really have a lack of offense in that section. Herbert has been bad recently, losing to a number of players he’d normally beat. His game depends largely on his serving, and while he’s one of the best players at net outside the big 3 (I’d put him first/Sock second) he needs to get there to be effective. Mmoh is a defensive test, but Herbert likely won’t want to get dragged into extended rallies, so this will look a bit like a low-rent version of Garin vs Bublik. I think Herbert at home gets the job done, but it may take some patches of trial and error to crack Mmoh’s defense. Herbert in 4-5.
Delbonis Londero : I was initially excited to back Londero a bunch after his USO run, as I know his best surface is clay. This is his second match against his countryman though, and it is a poor matchup for him as Delbonis has been playing decent. Delbonis his big and segments the game nicely, so the pace of the ball is fast, but the progression of rallies is slow. I don’t expect Londero to lose in straight sets, but it’s hard to back him after losing to Delbonis a few weeks ago. Delbonis in 4-5, but for betting porpoises I’d recommend avoiding this altogether.
Cecchinato De Minaur : Hehe. Finally stringing wins together, Cecchinato’s reward is a maindraw against a guy who is a nightmare matchup. Cecchinato plays a classic claycourt game. Big power and deft dropshots. He needs time to produce the first of those, and De Minaur takes that away. The dropshots are cute, but De Minaur covers the net better than most on tour. He lost to Koepfer in his only warmup on clay, and Cecchinato has won a bunch of matches recently, but this is a fairly even matchup. Both are excellent frontrunners, and I think the first few sets will be very competitive. Hard to pick against De Minaur in a long contest early in the event, and Cecchinato’s defense will likely be an issue if ADM is serving well. De Minaur in 4.
Paire Kwon : Paire still avoiding multiple matches, which is an excellent strategy for his longevity as a pro athlete. He basically could lose to anyone at this point, and his retirement in Hamburg appeared to be “I’m tired”. This is a bad sign, and worse still, Kwon is not a player who’ll beat him quick or represent a dominant opponent he can just tank against. This is one I’d advise listening to rather than watching, as Paire’s outbursts will be better than his play. I’m somewhat expecting Kwon to win, although this is similar to Nishioka/FAA where the more stable player lacks the weapons to just win in dominant fashion. Kwon via retirement.
Coria Jung : Coria is a wall. Jung is not a wall. Why not be a wall? Coria in 4.
Bonzi Ruusuvuori : Bonzi beat Karlovic which makes me sad, but I’m happy to see the challenger journeyman get a shot in a grandslam. Ruusuvuori is slowly becoming a household name, and his clay game isn’t adept but it’s a notch better than Bonzi. Fatigue may be a factor here not in hampering Bonzi’s game, but in Ruusuuvuori’s being more crisp. Ruu-uuu-u—- in 4.
Sinner Goffin : One of the sketchier first round matchups, what with wildcards playing each other and Coria and Jung going at it. This happens though, and it’s our gift to watch it. Sinner is one of the more promising prospects on the tour in a long time, and with the next gen guys finally starting to come through with big results and solid play, seeing a guy who seems more mentally stable than they were early on in their career is even better. Goffin losing quickly to Cilic isn’t a great sign, and he’s always a threat to go elfmode and stifle his opponents ability to play offense, but I think Jannik’s serving will give him a small edge here. Sinner in 4.
Fognini Kukushkin : Fognini had ankle surgeries, or else his recent string of poor performances and losses would be his normal string of poor performances and losses. He doesn’t seem willing to press himself yet, and this is another Paire/Kwon style matchup. Kukushkin will take any victory he gets a look at, but isn’t going to overwhelm his opponent. Fognini’s impatiance against Ruud did include a number of shots that missed by very little, and on the slower courts in Paris he may land a greater percentage of these. I expect Fognini to play a bit better, and this will be about optics. If Fognini feels like he looks bad or is in a spot where him trying would risk his ego, he’ll fold, and Kukushkin will win. This is sad to say about a professional athlete, but Fognini has the ankle situation to fall back on, so if he can’t win,he’ll just swing for the fences and inspect his racquet until it’s over. He’s very pretty tho. Kukushkin in 4, hopefully.
Martinez Vukic : Martinez was the best in the qualifying, and Vukic was in the qualifying. Martinez in 3.
Korda Seppi : Korda is becoming a sleeper pick on tour, and Seppi is notoriously at his worst on clay since he hits such a flat ball. I think this will stretch deep, and I am tempted to give the edge to Korda given Seppi’s recent loss to Klahn and Musetti and Korda’s win against Karatsev, who has been one of the best players in the past month on clay on the challenger tour. Korda in 4.
Benchetrit Isner : Benchetrit can make this close since it’s on clay, but Isner should be able to get into tiebreakers, which makes predicting this almost as annoying as Isner bouncing the ball between his legs. The dude’s a muppet. Someone in 4 tiebreakers.
Evans Nishikori : Evans hasn’t been great, and Nishikori has been worse. Nishikori has looked like he was gaining control of rallies and immediately making errors for a few weeks now, and it’s frustrating to predict his matches because there’s that sense that he will find form at some point. Evans likely gets the W here but it will take a lot of work. Evans in 4-5.
Andujar Travaglia : “BEGONE,” commanded Andujar. I stood there speechless. “YOU ARE AN ILLUSION!” he bellowed, waking several colorful parrots who sat atop his head. I was not there. What he saw was only his vision of me, which had come to him in a dream commanded by the vines and souls of tropical frogs. Confident that I had gone, he hopped off his perch on the mountain peak, and began descending. Not in the usual way via legs and feet, but on the breeze of a thousand moths, while nearby shamans began making a thousand broths. Andujar is back, and I hate this matchup. Travaglia was brilliant on serve leading up to RG, and Andujar was a breath of fresh air on the challenger tour, notching win after win after win and rarely dropping a set. This is one I expect to go deep, as both players are at their best. Who will win? A man does not summon the future, lest it become the present. Shamans in 3.
Diez McDonald : idc
Gerasimov Nadal : So we all know what will happen if I suggest Nadal will struggle in a match. Luckily, I won’t have to here. Gerasimov’s movement isn’t good enough to trouble many players on clay, and Nadal is probably the most dominant single-surface player that tennis has ever seen. He looked pretty human last week against Diego, and his muscles were muscley, but not as muscley as usual. Where is his massive crab-arm? The winner of Travaglia/Andujar will be his first real test. Nadal in 2 somehow.
PS User Kuklachert runs a very fun picking contest if you're interested in discord ... check it out here https://www.reddit.com/tennis/comments/izhabroland_garros_tipping_competition/

The Exhibition Match.
The Opening Round.
Quarterfinals first half.
Quarterfinals second half.
-
NFC Wildcard Opening Round Match; “Wendigo” Wendy Hathale Vs JJ Watson
“BEGIN!”
Wendy’s eyes narrowed, and she cracked her knuckles in anticipation, sighing.
“Alright, we’re both clearly freaks of nature. How do you wanna do this?”
JJ’s smile widens, and he leans down, leering at her.
“You think we can just tear each other apart without issue, don’t you?” He chuckles and licks his lips. “You haven’t realised yet that this isn’t YOUR home, little one.” He looks to what I can only assume is an invisible camera only JJ can see and flashes a far too perfect grin, mechanical in its nature. “The poor girl is so clueless, folks! But don’t you worry, JJ can remedy that stupidity!”
He laughs, shaking his head and slapping his forehead, repeatedly shouting “STUPID!” as his laughter grows more guttural, more manic. He drops to a knee and howls with glee.
“My goodness, my first true contest in a LONG time and it’s against a little girl who reminds me SO much of my dear audience back home. It’s almost ironic, I can’t get away from them how hard I try! I may as well say “HONEY, I’M HOME! DID YA GET ME ANOTHER FAILURE?”
He laughs harder, getting off his feet to lunge at Wendy and pin her down, still laughing as his drool coats her head and mask. I felt sick watching it.
Wendy, to her credit, was unperturbed.
“Man, you ever been told how much of a fuckin’ creep you are? You reek of chemicals, look like a dollar store horror mannequin reject and talk in such a creepy way that even the local pervert wouldn’t touch you. But most of all…” She pushes him off with great force and sends the laughing, drooling JJ smacking the canvas before he rights himself to stare at her. In that time, she darts forward and in an instant is across the side of the pit, clutching an ear in her hand and throwing it to the ground as JJ continues howling with laughter, white fluid and pus trickling out of his ear.
“You’re fucking disgusting, JJ.” She quips, turning back around and extending her fingers. I'm staggered, but I proceed with enthusiasm.
“This truly is a blink and you’ll miss it bout, fight fans! Wendy Hathale clears half the pit in a split second and takes JJ’s ear with her! Curious that she doesn’t go to taste it though…”
“Not at all, if you consider that JJ isn’t human.” Nelle replied, searching the contents page of her book for a particular entry, flicking through the pages until she stopped under “I”. A detailed diagram of a spectral shape that shifts at will to scare townspeople laid bare for me to see. “He’s an Ikaggen, a very special kind of trickster god that can shapeshifter into many things to enact his cruelty. But his most common appearance…” She trails off as JJ splayed out on all fours and began twitching while he laughed.
His back hunched up and snapped, stretching out to form the long neck and thorax, a bulky abdomen housing an extra pair of spindly legs with gnarled hooks across the length of them. The front hands reaching up and bending forwards to form the raptorial saw-like weaponry as his skin darkens and the carapace shimmers under the lights, piercing silver antenna split out of his head as the hair recedes and gives way to grotesque bulging eyes. The jaw crunching, splitting and gnashing as mandibles rapidly replace the perfect teeth. He gurgles as his laughter gives way to hisses and growls.
“You are not in The Hotel just as I am not Beneath The Static, we are both vulnerable to the unyielding jaws of death. I am not willing to risk such a thing in front of a live audience, young one. I will tear you to pieces and show the world what lies beneath the static.”
He lunges forward and takes a swipe at her with his hooked claws, slicing the inside of her thigh as she darts back and ripping the skin, flecks of black blood coating the hooks as he chuckles, his body remaining still.
Wendy landed as her leg gave out, looking at it expectantly, hoping it would fix itself. Instead, the blood continued to trail around her until she ripped away the torn fabric and wrapped it around her.
If she was scared, she damn sure didn’t show it.
“Well, I guess you’re truthful about something, JJ.” She said, breathing a little heavy from the blood-loss, steadying herself as she rose to her feet. “Y’know, we get cable in the Hotel Inertia, I’m aware of who you are and what you do… pickin’ on teenagers for your own amusement. You really THAT much of an attention whore that you can’t stay away? They'll grow up and come back stronger, you know. When you pick on someone your own size, you're always gonna lose.”
JJ didn’t respond, swaying ever so slightly like a brittle leaf caught in a mild breeze. He was waiting to strike. Wendy pulled off her sweater and threw it aside, showing a thin stomach that almost caved in, binding wrapping her chest and ribcages, old wounds and scars littering her body.
“This is the result of countless fights, feedings and gruelling fights. Some at home with my “adopted family”, others with The Order of the 13th floor alongside my friends, the ones this fuckin’ tournament ripped me away from at our crisis moment. You think YOU scare me? You think the idea of being torn up and actually dying scares me?” She laughs, it’s hollow and bitter, like she’s remembering the bright side of a vicious beating is the unconscious state she’ll fall into when the pain gets too much.
“You have NO fuckin’ idea. I’d be so happy to go to sleep and never wake up, to have that ceaseless hunger stop for just one day. Do you know what that kind of hunger does to someone? It makes an ordinary person angry on the first day, delirious on the second and manic by the third. Now take what I am and multiply that number by thousands.”
Wendy takes off her mask and shows the gritted teeth biting on her lower lip so much that she’s torn through the flesh, blood coating her chin as the teeth grow more spiked and the jaw grows larger, her eyes blackening and skin greying. She grows taller and the features of a once beautiful woman give way to a horrifying creature known for its insatiable lust for flesh.
Crouching down like a sprinter at the starting line, she stares down her opponent like a piece of meat.
“So just imagine what that’s gonna do to you now I’ve let loose, JJ.”
I can’t believe my eyes. In that moment, the reality of the situation hit me like a freight train and I feel the innate fear of being a small fish in an ocean filled with sharks. I can’t let my composure falter, not with Alduin’s gaze bearing down on me. I take a long drink of water and tumble headfirst into my adrenaline.
“AMAZING! Wendigo Wendy living up to her name as she assumes a more terrifying form! This fight looks to be heading to its climax folks, expect blood and guts galore!”
I was right. Within 20 seconds, it was over.
Wendy leaves great dents in the canvas as she tears forward, JJ swipes at her in the instant she comes into his range, his front forearm hooking into her flesh and pulling her in. She pushes forward, the skin tearing with the force of her movement and an ungodly shriek emitting from her as she bites into the offending arm and pulls up with her jaws, tearing it free while her right hand slices into JJ’s eye, the nails going straight through the soft flesh and pulling at the socket until it’s wrenched completely free.
She casts it aside and lets the wailing JJ Watson stumble away, leaking that same fluid addled with a horrid chemical stench.
Losing strength, he begins forming back into himself; the eye closing up and his suit tattered as he gripped the stump. Wendy watches him for a moment, bits of JJ’s mantis-arm still in between her teeth that she spits out as she stares him down. He’s breathing heavily as she walks closer, every step impactful.
“Well, folks… It seems I underestimated this young woman’s ability to let go. I thought she’d be like my hardcore audience and just cave under the pressure of mortality…” He looks up, that perfect skin cracking around the edges. “But I’ll tell you something, this will make for great publicity!”
She kicks him square in the gut and he’s sent into the air with a wheeze. As he falls down, she catches the back of his neck in her jaws with a sickening crunch, his body twitching in the air as he gasps.
“Looks like… my time at the NFC… is up. But, Wendigo Wendy… I made you see what you fear. What lies Beneath The Static… Death itself.”
He snaps his fingers and the lights go out across the venue, obscuring us for a moment. When they turn on, Wendy is kneeling on the ground in her normal form, exhausted and her mask firmly back on.
“A stunning turn of events! Right as Wendigo Wendy had JJ in her jaws. He pulls a fast one and escapes out of the back door! But, I think we can all agree that while Wendy had some scrapes, it’s absolutely her fight to win!”
I look to Alduin who is seething with rage, but concedes the fight is over and awards Wendy the victory.
“Wendy Hathale advances, we will announce the remaining participants at the end of the interval, but each has been told of their inclusion already. The tournament will recommence in 3 hours. Rest up, you’ll fuckin’ need it!”
-
Alduin storms off to the back, leaving Wendy still struggling to get up as the crowd disperses. I debate going down there to help, but a surprising hand is offered to help her up.
Eustace De Kolta holds out a red-gloved hand, his curled smile betraying his keen and curious eyes.
The guy gave off the sort of vibe one would expect from an old creepy man on public transport.
“You had quite the ordeal, Miss Hathale. I knew you had something special in you, I just wasn’t aware of how unique you truly are…” His voice was like silk, every syllable softly declared and hanging in the air, Wendy looked up before slapping his hand away, struggling to her feet.
“I know what you are and what you do, De Kolta. A single handshake from you and I could end up in that nightmare fuel Pokemon satchel you keep with you. No thanks.” She walks towards him and despite being a solid foot shorter, gets in his face and stares up at him. “You come near me, I’ll pull a disappearing act of my own on your jugular. Understand?” He shows his teeth as he grins and backs away, bowing deeply.
“I look forward to seeing your future matches and I do hope you succeed. It would be most fortuitous if we were to meet in the pit. I think you’d play well with my menagerie.” He stands and watches her as she leaves, an open door leading into the main lobby of the arena now available. Before I can process everything, his gaze locks onto me and I see something I never expected.
The smile immediately dips into a low, sinister grimace.
He looks at me with a hunger and a hatred I have never seen before.“Hey, Sal.” A voice calls behind me. I turn to see Nora in an orange and white hoodie, the hood turned up and a warm smile beaming at me, immediately disarming my sense of anxiety. When I turn back, Eustace is gone.
“Oh, hi! Nora Zayne, you were fantastic in your bout! I knew Pencak Silat was deadly but man… who’d of thought it’d be used so well against monsters, huh?” I stood up and felt my knees buckle, the adrenaline wearing off and hunger overtaking me. Before I even hit the floor, Nora caught me.
“Easy big guy, I gotcha. Let’s get you some food and talk, kay? You coming along, Nelle?” Her informal nature was so unexpected from a woman I’d just seen decimate something Asia fears across the continent, but I felt myself just naturally going with it. Nelle looked and immediately busied herself with the compendium.
“Oh! Uhh.. no, no. I have far too much work to do, research for the wildcard entrants and whatnot. Oh and there’s that uh.. that thing I have to attend to. Gotta speak to Alduin too about something… I’ll catch you in a couple hours to go over notes, kay Sal?” She looked awkward and hurried herself past us as Nora stared incredulously.
“Huh… well, that was a bit odd. But no matter, let’s go get some grub. I’m sure you have questions, right?” I just nodded as she took me by the arm and kept me steady as we barrelled past the denizens of the audience still debating “who would win” scenarios, old champions and other nightmarish spectres. The upper ring was sprawling and hard to navigate, I had no idea how Nora was so familiar with it. As we descended to the middle floor where the vendors and entertainment was situated, we passed a bar serving strange drinks with a multitude of bottles, a beautiful Bernese mountain dog barking at the window, his big fluffy face licking at the glass until a man pulled him away.
“He’s cute, can we stop there?” I asked. “Feelin’ kinda thirsty… maybe they have an adrenaline drink?” She looked back, a tad confused, but didn’t stop as we made a beeline for the fighters only cafeteria.
“What bar?" She asked. I looked again, but in its place stood a donut stand, a surly older man dishing them out by the dozen with a multitude of sprinkles. My mouth agape, she chuckles. "Hey since you'r so eager, I’ll make you a deal; I make it through the semis, you can buy me a drink.” She winked, and I felt my stomach knot up.
Couldn’t tell you if it was the hunger or butterflies, but motormouth was very much silent for a little bit.
“You’re wondering why I’m taking an interest in you, right?” She called over the booming sound of the crowd and pumping metal music, I nodded. “You showed a support in me when you called my fight and when I had to defend you... Well, I looked up and thought you were cute. Got a thing for the nerdy ones.”
“But that’s not all, is there?” I asked, my head pounding as I did so. Maybe it was the music? She looked back and flashed a cheeky grin.
“Nope, but that’s a story for another day. We gotta eat and you’ve got more interesting questions for all of us.” She laughed as we watched a fighter far too drunk for his own good challenging a still-eating Miroslav Zanaya to a fight.
One side punch later, the guy was on his ass and vomiting.
“All of us? What do you mean?”
“The fighters! You’ve gotta meet and interview ‘em ahead of the semifinals and wildcard, don’t ya?” I shrugged, and she laughed again. “Man, you really are clueless, Nelle wasn’t kidding. You’re doing part of her job, too. I’m doing you a favour by bringing you with me.”
We passed a betting table showing the odds for the semifinals and wildcard, Eustace and Wendy respectively being the odds on favourites to win. Nora and Landry Eavy being the biggest underdogs.
Whatever was lurking in the booth and taking slips from paying customers, it had tendrils and shimmering red eyes. I didn’t dare stare too long as we passed it.
Down one more flight of stairs and we were in the employee section housing the nightmares, fighters and various services like medical stations, prep rooms and the like. One long hallway to our left was all that stood between us and some glorious smelling food. As we got halfway down, however, Nora pushed me to the wall and put a hand over my mouth, her slightly taller frame covering me as someone walked past.
I looked to her and was about to protest, but the look on her face screamed danger. Her brow was furrowed. The calm and kind demeanour she’d showed was replaced with an instinct to protect.
As I followed her gaze, I saw why.
It was like watching a great black swarm that undulated into the visage of a human man with long horns. A cloak of hungry, vivacious locusts that jostled and crawled for position. The sound rippled through my ears, my eardrums threatening to burst and my skull screaming for breath as it neared.
When the locusts parted, a skull with an elongated back that stretched out horizontally peered down at Nora, the arms on the back of the thick spine pulling at a sheathed sword on its torso. The smell of rot was so powerful that I felt my vision blur.
“You realise that by coming back here, you’ve sealed your fate and thus our deal must be concluded.” It spoke in a thousand voices at once, the boom of so many souls screaming for relief and joy and ecstasy. A bead of sweat ran down Nora’s forehead as she tried to find the words.
“I’m aware of our arrangement and what it means to return. But I ask that you wait until my time in the tournament has concluded.” The locusts hissed, and the cloak revealed more of this abomination; the shimmering black armour clad in gold, the powerful arms on the shoulder blades, the hoofed feet and a worn down, blackened and cracked NFC Belt.
It turned its head to me and I felt the looming shadow of death put its hands around my throat in a way I can only describe as seeing an oncoming car and veering out of harm’s way, but amplified 100 fold. A sensation that your life could end with one false move.
This creature was a foot away from me and we both know it could crush me in an instant. Fear doesn’t begin to describe how I felt in that moment. He spoke again, silencing her.
“I will decide when such a contest must be undertaken. Be it now, during your next bout or when you are nearing death at the hands of Alduin IF you somehow survive your next two bouts… I will add you to the chorus where you shall remain.” The locusts covered him again, and he walked away, humming. “You should have stayed forgotten, it would have been better for all.”
As he walked away and into the darkness, both I and Nora collapsed against the wall in a heap. It took a good couple of minutes to regain thought, and I’m man enough to admit I was shaking.
“What… what the hell was that?” I breathed. Nora wiped the sweat from her head and stood up, clenching her fist.
“That was someone I made a deal with when I was last here. He offered me a fight I was not supposed to refuse. The penalty for leaving meant he could challenge me anytime, anywhere, and under his rules. If he beats me… well, you’ve seen what happens." She walks with me expediently to the end of the hallway where the other fighters are waiting. Suddenly, all the terrifying and skilled talent we've seen in the tournament ebbs away, just for a moment. She continues, the noise and ruckus of the semifinalists drowned out by the mixture of fear and anger in her voice.
"Where Alduin rules the openweight division and anyone can compete, making her the queen of the NFC... He rules the nightmare division with an iron fist. Only the most terrifying of creatures compete for that prize and the promise of something... more."
She swallowed and turned to me, genuine terror in her eyes.
“That was Abaddon. The NFC's Abyss Champion. And he’s coming for me.”
-
NEXT: There's more going on here than just the fights.