With the Kentucky Derby now just three weeks away, our highlighted race of the week will be the last prep race for the Derby in the Grade: 1, $1 million Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Arkansas.
We will also be looking at the Oaklawn Handicap, a Grade: 2, $750,000 nine furlong contest also for four year olds and up.
Elsewhere, we will take a look at three Graded Stakes races at Keeneland Race Course. The Ben Ali Stakes for four year olds and up, the Jenny Wiley Stakes, an 8 ½ furlong test for four year olds and up fillies and mares on the turf and the Lexington Stakes for three year olds who are desperately trying for some last minute Kentucky Derby points in hopes that a win or a good showing will catapult them into this year’s “Run for the Roses”.
Lastly, on Sunday we will be examining the Grade: 1, $750,000 Apple Blossom back at Oaklawn Park, another 8 ½ furlong race for four year olds and up fillies and mares.
Saturday, April 13, 2019
Keeneland Race Course
Race: 7 (4:24 PM EST Post)
Ben Ali Stakes
If you look up “racehorse rounding back into top form” in the dictionary you might see a picture of Flameaway. The one time Kentucky Derby threat ran a very good third in the Grade: 3 Mineshaft off a nearly six month break two starts back. I really like the way this $400,000 son of Scat Daddy won his last, as he took pace pressure every step of the way while wiring the field. That last race, back to back excellent works since and this being his third start off the layoff, all point to another good effort upcoming. Lastly, I don’t see him having any problems in what is projected to be an off track on Saturday.…………………….Based off his last two races, a win and a fast closing third, both at Laurel Park, Bonus Points also seems to be in peak form right now. The Todd Pletcher trainee draws a good post for his running style and should be coming late in this spot……………………… I know Solomini is quite popular but I’m not a big fan of his. In fact, I believe he is one of the most overrated horses in quite some time…maybe since Keen Ice. Yes, he’s a Grade: 1 winner and yes, he’s hit the board in 9 of 11 career starts but two facts stand out about him to me. 1) He’s won one race since that Grade: 1 win (a span of 16 months) and that was against $40,000 optional claimers and 2) the fact still remains he is 2 for 11 lifetime. This son of Curlin will likely be over bet in this spot. ………….Honorable Mentions: Third Day is a $575,000 son of the corvette looking Bernardini who did well to finish third in the aforementioned Mineshaft Handicap in his last. This handsome colt was trapped behind a slow pace yet finished just a neck behind Flameaway in that race and his one and only race in the slop was an impressive win. Bottom line here is, he could better this rating especially if the track does come up wet…………………The cleverly named Nun the Less looks better suited for the synthetics but note he is 2 for 2 on off tracks. Merits a longshot look if the rains come…………….First Mondays, a $450,000 son of Curlin who missed the break in his last, and Just Whistle, who was a good third in the Peter Pan Stakes last year, both could run well here and neither would be a huge surprise.

Race: 9 (5:34 PM EST Post)
Stonestreet Lexington
Anothertwistafate rattled off three super impressive, large margined wins over the synthetics this year but looked just as good, if not better, in his neck loss last time out in the Sunland Park Derby on the dirt. This $360,000 son of Scat Daddy sat just off screaming early fractions (:45.3, 1:09.3, 1:34.3) before “running on” to just miss the win. Note the :24 second flat internal fraction as it’s the sign of a quality runner. If this handsome, smooth strided colt, who ripped a sensational half mile work for this (:46.4) last week runs well enough here to make it into the Derby (he’s on the threshold on points), no one better go to sleep on him as he appears to have big time talent and would pose an enormous threat………………….Based off his close up, on the board finishes in the Sham, Southwest and Louisiana Derby, Sueno clearly looks next best………………….I really liked Zenden’s Tampa Bay Derby effort at 20-1 in his last. This son of Fed Biz normally assumes a stalking position early on in his races but in the Tampa Bay Derby, this horse blew the gate and ripped off super fast fractions (:22.3, 45.4 and 1:09.3). He understandably tired late but I thought he did extremely well to finish fourth and was only be beaten by four lengths to the likes of Tacitus and Win Win Win. Looks best of the rest here………………..Honorable Mentions: Call me stubborn, but I’m STILL not giving up on the late running Roiland, who has a habit of running well at double digit odds………………Anyone have any idea what to do with Harvey Wallbanger, who wins the Holy Bull at 30-1 then comes back and completely tanks in the Florida Derby? Because I sure don’t. He’s a tough horse to play with such inconsistencies…………If you are hunting a longshot in this race, take a good look at Shang, who is a neck shy of being unbeaten in five starts vs. lesser. Although he obviously will be taking a huge step up in class, it should be noted he ran the last 2 ½ furlongs of his last race in an excellent :30.1, his speed figures are climbing, he handles the wet track very well and the #1 post at this meet is winning at 18% thus far.
Race: 10 (6:12 PM EST Post)
Jenny Wiley Stakes
Rushing Fall is a very special filly. This gorgeous, $320,000 daughter of More Than Ready is 6 for 7 in her career, has already captured two Grade: 1 wins and, had it not been for a questionable ride when losing her one race by a neck, she could be unbeaten. There is nothing not to like about her as she can handle the distance, is adaptable to any pace scenario, handles any “give” in the turf and is 3 for 3 at Keeneland. If you are looking to beat her, which might prove futile, you can use the angle that this will be her first start in exactly 6 months but that’s not enough for me……………………I like Rymska. She is a big, all black (very rare) five year old mare who is 7 for 13 in her career. This multiple Graded Stakes winner could not have looked any better in taking down the Hillsborough at Gulfstream in her last and you get the third start off the layoff angle. Easily looks next best here…………………Bellavais has been gradually improving since October. $485,000 mare by Tapit finished very well in her last and won her previous time out, both at Gulfstream Park. It appears she too can handle a soft turf course and has been on the board in 10 of 15 career races…………….Honorable Mentions: Onthemoonagain is a French invader who has fared very well in all four U.S. starts. Chad Brown trainee could better this rating with the right pace scenario……………Got Stormy came back running off a long layoff when whipping high level optionals. Steps up but that race could set her up for a good effort here……………….The longshot horse in this race is Princess Warrior, who looks overmatched on paper but note her two races on off turf courses were both very good.
Oaklawn Park
Race: 9 (6:22 PM EST Post)
Oaklawn Handicap
After back to back big efforts at “big balloons,” Rated R Superstar has methodically worked his way back into what appears to be top form. Although his rider is ice cold right now, he does like this track and seems to be ok if it rains as expected. …my best guess in an extremely wide open horse race…………………….Giant Expectations disappointed as the 8/5 favorite in the Essex in his last. This 6 year old by Giant Frost chased Battle of Midway and McKinzie two back and wasn’t embarrassed by any stretch, so you know he has ability. It’s the consistency I question as he hasn’t won a horse race of any kind in 16 months. That said he looks next best…………….Quip was up against it when he had to chase the absolutely streaking right now Prince Lucky in his first race back off a long layoff. This good looking son of Distorted Humor did well to finish third in that race and should be tighter for this…………………Honorable Mentions: Tenfold’s claim to fame is running Justify to three quarters of a length in the 2018 Preakness Stakes. This son of Curlin was a very close up fourth in his first race since, handles the slop just fine and should improve off his 2019 debut. Figures close………………Lone Sailor figures to do his normal “drop way back early but come with big run late only to fall short late” routine. Logically, the faster the pace, the better his chances are and the pace figures to be honest in this race……………..Keep an eye on Chris and Dave here too if it rains. Although he seems overmatched, he is 4 for 6 on wet tracks…………..I got to spend several minutes up close and personal with Lookin’ at Lee last year at Saratoga before the Travers. He is a very nice looking, well made horse, but he just hasn’t run to those looks as his 3 for 21 career record would indicate.
Race: 11 (7:43 PM EST Post)
Arkansas Derby
There are a lot of “moving parts” with the big, almost perfectly strided, Improbable, so this race should tell the tale of where we stand with him. His last race, The Rebel, didn’t answer any questions for me. In fact, it seems to have posed more. Let’s start with why he was run down in deep stretch by Long Range Toddy. Was it because he was “parking lot” wide, off a boneheaded ride by DVD, throughout the entire race and, with that being his first race in 10 weeks, maybe he understandably tired late? I don’t know, like I’ve said before, Baffert is the master at sending them out ready, regardless of the situation. Was it the City Zip breeding that is causing the dreaded distance limitation? I don’t know that yet either being he romped, not once but twice, at 8 ½ furlongs before. Whatever the answers are, I know this much….Baffert is not sitting on his hands with this gorgeous colt. I don’t blame him one bit for making a rider change (from DVD to Jose Ortiz) and he is adding blinkers in this spot as well. I absolutely LOVED his last work where, with blinkers on, he sat just off his work mate, passed him on the turn for home and was "reaching out" soooooooooo beautifully down the lane I mumbled “wow” while stopping the clock in either 1:13.3 or 1:14 flat depending on what racing publication you read. This might prove futile, but I am sticking with him until he proves otherwise. That said, this race is a “do or die” for him. He will need to step up right now, in this spot to remain a serious Derby threat………………………….Horse Racing is a lot like other sports in the sense that the best baseball/basketball/football team doesn’t always win, but more of who gets hot heading into the playoffs. In this case, it’s who is getting good at just the right time and, aside from Tacitus and perhaps Vekoma, is there another horse in the country who is getting good right now more that Omaha Beach? After losing a couple of heart breaking, maiden races earlier in his career, this very handsome, very well bred colt (by War Front out of a mare super sire from years ago Seeking the Gold) ran a hole in the wind in the slop to finally break his maiden two starts back. He won by 9 that day and stopped the clock in a blistering 1:21 flat for seven panels. His next and last start was in a division of the Rebel, where he assumed command early, fended off a few others early in the race and then dug in and fended off none other than Two Year Old Colt Champion Game Winner in a thrilling stretch run. The Rebel proved two things. 1) He can handle the route distance and 2) he has the guts of a tight rope walker. Back to back bullet works since the Rebel signal he is holding form and possibly getting better. Big Money Mike gets the leg up……………….The aforementioned Long Range Toddy is a stretch runner who is 7-4-1-1 in his career has never finished more than two lengths behind the winner in his three career defeats. That, readers, is consistency. He draws the extreme outside post which could actually help him in this spot and I love his work pattern since his Rebel upset (8-1) win……………….Honorable Mentions: Although Galilean was passed in the stretch of the Rebel by Long Range Toddy, I still like this very handsome, $600,000 son of Uncle Mo. After annihilating Cal-Breds in his two prior races, this colt, who has a very efficient and smooth stride, did very well to finish third, beaten by less than three lengths in his first try vs. open company and outside the state of California as well. Bottom line here is, he is no easy throw out……………………...Country House is another late runner who, on the surface, looks to be struggling a bit outside the friendly confines of Gulfstream Park but a closer look shows he had legitimate excuses both times. He broke slowly (again) and chased a streaking War of Will two back and, after you guessed it, breaking slowly again, he was ridiculously wide in the Louisiana Derby. That said, this son of Lookin’ at Lucky could be a menace with a clean break and what is projected to be a hot early pace………………….Gray Attempt has won 4 of 6 in his career and is 2 for 3 on this oval plus he recorded a monster work in the mud last week (5F- :58.3). The problem I’m seeing with him is a mile or a mile a sixteenth looks to be “all of it.” In other words, on paper he looks better suited to sprinting.

Sunday, April 14, 2019
Oaklawn Park
Race: 8 (4:42 PM EST Post)
Apple Blossom
This year’s renewal of the Apple Blossom features a rematch from the Azeri Stakes with two of the best older females in the land in Elate and Midnight Bisou and this race figures to be a doozy. Midnight Bisou, who I liked since early last year, got the better of it last time and I’m sticking to my guns that she has a world of talent, will continue to get better and have a tremendous year when it’s all said and done. Four year old by Midnight Lute is off to a good start (2 for 2) in winning the Houston Ladies Classic in January and the aforementioned Azeri in March. She “takes her racetrack with her” as she is 7 for 13 in her career while winning on four different ovals in all parts of the country. Lastly, I believe she still holds a fitness edge over main rival Elate as this will be her third start (off the layoff) while Elate will be making her second start in eight months…………………….Elate is clearly the main threat in this spot. Head hunters in New Guinea could see this two time Grade: 1 winner needed her last as it was her first start in eight months. Filly by Medaglia d’ Oro did very well to finish second in the Azeri when beaten by just one length as the even money favorite. When I was at Belmont Park (before heading over to Aqueduct for the Wood Memorial) last week, I heard several folks on the backstretch talk about how she may not be coming back the same as last year after, by trainer Bill Mott’s admittance, “a few minor injuries”. I’ll give her a mulligan for the Azeri but like Improbable this weekend, she needs to improve off the Azeri to prove that theory wrong………………….Wonder Gadot is another who probably needed her first race of 2019 when finishing second vs. optional $50,000 claimers on March 8 as it was her first start in over four months. Another daughter of “King of the (sales) Ring” Medaglia d’ Oro, this filly actually won two thirds of the Canadian Triple Crown (beating the boys) last year and still has that very long and flowing stride, which is especially good when on her right handed lead………………..Honorable Mention: Escape Clause is an absolute win machine while registering a mind boggling 20 wins in 30 career starts. Granted, she was beating up on far lesser competition at smaller tracks for most of it but still that’s quite a feat. That said, she did win a Grade: 2 at Santa Anita in January and could not have looked any better while blowing out her rivals at Sunland Park in her last. Mare by Going Commando (how did the Jockey Club miss that name by the way?), who stands for less than $1,000, won by 7+, getting a mile in a track record 1:34 flat.

By: Gerard Apadula
Director of Equine Operations and Development
Knights of the Round Stable Thoroughbred Racing Team
[[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])
2019- Record: 22-72 = 31% (My Plays: -$2,314.14)
2018- Record: 107-261= 41%
2017- Record: 92-235 = 39%
2016- Record: 91-229 = 40%
2015- Record: 67-180 = 37%
2014- Record: 29-73 = 40%
2013- Record: 20-59= 34%
2012 -Record: 24-73= 33%
2011 –Record: N/A
2010- Record: 24-74= 33%
Little Bets N’ Pieces
****Superstar Winx makes her final career start in the Group: 1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Royal Randwick. If her win streak continues, this will be her 33rd straight win and 25th Group: 1. The scheduled post time is 11:05 p.m. ET on Friday, April 12th.

**** Lady Pauline, a half-sister to Lady Aurelia, was an eye catching, first time out winner last week at Keeneland.
Going off at an enormous 1-5 betting favorite, the Stonestreet homebred blew the gate and showed a very impressive speed to win by 9 3/4 lengths, stopping the clock in :51:3 for 4 ½ furlongs.
We’ll need to keep an eye on her moving forward.

****In all my years of being involved in this sport, I’m not sure I’ve seen a stronger book of mares to be bred to one first year stallion ever.
Justify, who stands at Coolmore’s Ashford Stud in Paris, KY., for $150,000, has the following list of mares booked: (although this is not all of them)
A Raving Beauty Multiple G1 winner
A Z Warrior G1 winner
Afleet Maggi Dam of G1 winner Dream Tree
African Jade Dam of G1 winner Lord Nelson
Appealing Zophie G1 winner, dam of Belmont Stakes winner Tapwrit
Bar of Gold Won Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint
Bella Jolie Dam of champion sprinter Runhappy
Birdatthewire G1 winner
Blossomed Dam of G1 winner Sippican Harbor
Brave Anna G1 winner
Bubbler Dam of champion Arrogate
Caledonia Road Champion 2-year-old filly
Champagne Room Champion 2-year-old filly
Charming Dam of champion 2-year-old filly Take Charge Brandi,
Classic Strike Dam of G1 winner Union Strike
Dazzling Song Dam of G1 winner Magnum Moon
Diamondsandrubies G1 winner
Diva Delite Dam of G1 winner Midnight Bisou
Dream Dancing G1 winner
D’Wildcat Speed Dam of filly Lady Aurelia
Emma’s Encore G1 winner
Found won Breeders’ Cup Turf
Got Lucky G1 winner
Grace Hall G1 winner
Grazie Mille Dam of G1 winner Mo Town
Groupie Doll Two-time champion female sprinter and winner of the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint
Havre de Grace 2011 Horse of the Year, sold for $10 million
Ithinkisawapudycat Dam of G1 winner Sweet Loretta,
Khancord Kid Dam of Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint winner Bar of Gold
Kosmo’s Buddy Dam of G1 winner Knicks Go
Mining My Own Dam of Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird and G1 winner Dullahan
Misty For Me G1 winner, dam of Cartier champion 2-year-old colt U S Navy Flag
Moonshine Memories G1 winner
Morena dam of Belmont Stakes winner Creator
Noted and Quoted G1 winner
Pretty ‘n’ Smart Dam of G1 winner Cupid
Rare Event Dam of G1 winner Improbable
Sambuca Classica Dam of champion 2-year-old male Classic Empire
Silk and Scarlet Dam of G1 winner Master of Hounds
Silky Serenade Dam of G1 winner Restless Rider,
So Sharp of G1 winner Sharp Azteca
Storm Dixie Dam of Kentucky Oaks winner Princess of Sylmar
Tapestry G1 winner
Together Forever: G1 winner
Turbulent Descent G1 winner
Untouched Talent dam of G1 winner Bodemeister
Vale Dori G1 winner
Yellow Heat Dam of G1 winner R Heat Lightning
Zipessa G1 winner

My Picks For Arlington Million Day, Saturday, August 11, 2018.

I have made my choices on who I am going to bet At Arlington this weekend on Million Day. The first six races or so, I am simply looking to pick up a little change as the races are mostly filled with runners with limited ability. But I do like several in the better races and will take my shot in those races, though I have to leave a few out because I do not spread on my wagers.
1st Race: Maiden Claiming $15-10,000--- 3 YOs And Up Illinois Bred Fillies & Mares--- 6 furlongs AWT--- Purse $14,000:
This race looks like it will run to form, so I like 3)Rachelgotstephen(5-2) to win. But since I do not bet any horse to WP under 3-1), I will use this horse in exacta and tri boxes only. Her trainer Joe Kirby is the son of Frank Kirby who owns this horse but apparently has turned training duties over to his son. Frank Kirby was a trainer that would always bring a longshot in for me when I needed it the most. She has started twice this year and ran 4th both times. Dropping into maiden claimers for the first time this year, so the class break should help.
1)High Power(2-1) will be the one I use in an exacta box with my top pick. She dropped into this class for the first time in her last and open a clear lead before tiring. However, her trainer, Reavis, wins a lot of races in gate to wire fashion. He is switching jockeys to the lesser known Marquez, Jr but he is known for his ability to rate a horse on the lead. Should be a late factor.
6)Frosty Friend(3-1) has done nothing in his first two starts, but they were at Tampa Bay in races open to all fillies. Given a 4 month break where the trainer spent the time getting her fit to run as her works have improved and she seems to enjoy the all weather track, which her bloodlines says she should. Chris Block has been one of the better trainers in Illinois for almost 20 years. Will not be surprise if she wins this race, though I will use her in my tri box only.
2nd Race: Maiden Special Weight--- 2 YOs--- 6 Furlongs AWT---Purse $32,000.
I like the 1)Drilliant(8-1) to WP. His sire Drill, is a son of Lawyer Ron and he won the G1 Del Mar Futurity in his 3rd lifetime start on that track's all weather surface. His broodmare sire, Forbidden Apple, was a multiple graded stakes winner on grass in New York. If Drilliant run to his works, He will be tough to beat in here.
7) Hide The Demon(5-1) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. His sire, Run Away And Hide won all three of his starts, including the G2 Saratoga Special, before an injury ended his career. His broodmare sire is Tapit, who needs no introduction as he has been among the leading sires every year since he went to stud. Hide The Demon would be my top pick but I feel Drilliant has been prepared better for his debut.
2)Grit To Glory(8-1) will be my choice to complete my tri box. His sire, Pioneerof The Nile, is sire of 2015 TC winner American Pharoah, but his dam, Live For Now, is a 1/2 sister to Point Given. His works has not been as flashy as my top two picks, but he certainly has the bloodlines to succeed.
Race 3: Maiden Special Weight--- 3 YOs & Up--- One Mile Turf--- Purse $32,000.
I like the 7)Fifth Ace(4-1) to WP. He has made one lifetime start which came on the all weather track at Presque Isle Downs where he tracked the pace, took the lead turning into the stretch and finished 6th, beaten 2 3/4 lengths. Now, he has been entered in a grass race at the same distance and his bloodlines suggests he will like that surface even more. His dam, Model, is a daughter of Giant's Causeway and her dam is a G1 placed daughter of Machiavellian, the sire of Street Cry.
3)Wicked Gem(6-1) has made three lifetime starts, all on dirt, and has shown very little. However, his trainer, Kellyn Gorder. knows how to get a horse to produce and he has a series of works since his last that indicates he has or is ready to take the necessary step forward. His sire, Gemologist, won his first 5 lifetime starts before he was plummeted in the Ky Derby & Haskell Inv in his last two starts. And while he was never tried on grass, his bloodlines suggest that would probably be the surface he preferred. Add in Wicked Gem's broodmare sire, Mr Greeley(son of Gone West), Clever Trick(son of Northern Dancer's 3/4 brother Icecapade), and English TC Winner Nijinsky II(son of Northern Dancer), this horse should explode on grass. He will be my choice to complete my exacta box.
8)Duchossois(3-1) will be my choice for my tri box. His sire, Animal Kingdom, won the 2011 Ky Derby for his only lifetime dirt winner and spent the rest of his career more successful on grass and all weather tracks. However, I do not like that his last 2 works were extremely fast and they are uncovered. These types disappoints me more than their fair share, so I am willing to take a stand against him winning but will include him in my tri box. Roger Brueggemann is a solid trainer though, so this horse is not out of the question.
4th Race: Allowance O/C $18,000--- N/W 1 Other Than Or Which Have Never 2 Races Or Claiming $18,000--- 3 YO & Up-- One Mile Turf--- Purse $33,000.
I am going to take the only 3 YO in the field and make 5)Southsider(12-1) my choice to WP. His sire, First Defence, was a G1 winning sprinter but his broodmare sire, Southern Halo, was champion sire whose foals ran well on grass and dirt. Add Northern Dancer twice on his female side and Never Bend and one mile should suit him fine. He tried one mile on grass in his first lifetime start, but got off to a slow start and a good run before flatten out late on a turf listed as firm but by the fractions and final times, was obviously very slow. I believe he makes amends against these.
3)Belfast Cowboy(4-1) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. He has the same sire(Myboycharlie) and broodmare sire(Galileo) as the M/L favorite Sistercharlie in the Beverly D to be ran later on the card. He has 3 lifetime starts on three different all weather tracks and switches to grass for the first time. He crosses 4x4 to Danzig which gives him a ticket to win on any surface, especially up to a mile. However, hos broodmare sire, Galileo, is strictly a grass horse whose foals gets better the further they go.
2)Salvage Battle(15-1) will be my choice to complete my tri box. His sire, War Front, is a son of Danzig whose foals are speedy like he was, but most do their best running on grass. He is now known as a sire of sires as several of his sons were graded stakes winners on grass and are producing foals that are excelling on that surface too. He has two starts this year, one at 5 furlongs on the AWT and the other at 1 1/16 mile grass, where he broke last, then tried to press the pace after a quarter mile before tiring in the stretch. One nice work since and his trainer, Chris Block, is better known for winning with his grass runner. However, I feel he will be even better in his next start, and major improvement is expected today.
5th Race: Maiden Special Weight--- 2 YOs Fillies--- 5 1/2 Furlongs AWT--- Purse $32,000.
I like the 1)Take The Over(9-2) to WP. His sire, Overanalyze, was leading first crop sire of 2 YOs by winners last year and should continue making his presence felt. Her works says she should be ready to show the speed her female family displayed in their careers. Michael Stidham is very good with his first time starters also, so I expect a solid race from this one.
8)Twist And Shout(8-1) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. Her sire, Discreet Cat, broke his maiden in his first start in 109 4/5 at Saratoga and was then purchased privately by Godolphin who bred and owns this filly. Her trainer, Eoin Harty, used to train for Godolphin for a while, they went separate ways for several years and have now joined forces again and are winning with horses that are overlooked, including a couple at Saratoga this year. This filly is working as good as my top choice, if not slightly better. Should make for a thrilling race if both breaks like expected.
11)Kajawa(7-2) will be my choice to complete my tri box and she could play spoiler to my exacta. She finished 2nd in her first start on this track and distance. Her trainer, Mike Reavis, wins his share with runners on the lead and she should improve off her first start. Her sire, Cross Traffic, raced only as a 4 YO and ran 2nd in the G1 Metropolitan Mile, getting caught at the wire before going gate to wire in the G1 Whitney H, beating 2 BC Classic winners and a Santa Anita H winner. Her broodmare sire, Maria's Mon, was 2 YO Champion in his only year of racing and the sire of two Ky Derby winners, Monarchos & Super Saver. Lots to like, a small step forward is all that is needed.
6th Race: Claiming 12,500-$10,000--- 3 YOs & Up Which Have Never Won 2 Races--- 1 1/16 Miles Turf--- Purse $13,500.
I will use the 6)Colonel Fred(5-2) in my exotics but will bypass playing him to WP as his odds are a little low for my taste. I think this horse is fit enough to win, it is only a matter of find a field he can beat. Colonel John's foals have been a lot better on grass than dirt so far and while I do not think he outclasses this field, he looks the most likely of a weak field.
3)Justenufftuff(15-1) will be my choice to complete my exacta and the more I look at him, I think he is one that warrants a small WP bet. His sire, Justenuffhumor, won a pair of G2 turf races at Saratoga and he is a 1/2 brother to multiple G2 AWT winner, Lewis Michael, and Champion 2 YO filly, Dreaming Of Anna, who won the BC Juvenile Fillies. Their dam, Justenuffheart, is a 1/2 sister to Kitten's Joy. His last start was his first on grassin a turf sprint and he drew the rail, hit the gate and did not pick up his feet after thatin a distance that was probably too short for him. Brian Williamson trains and learned from his father-in-law, Harvey Vanier, and knows how to get them ready.
8)All Strikes(8-1) will be my choice to complete the tri box. While anyone could jump up in here and surprise, he has picked up a lot of minor shares and I normally like to use these types underneath in exotics, but in no way would I bet any across the board money on this type. Simply too risky.
7th Race: Starter O/C $10,000-$5,000. 3 YO & Up Which Have Started For A $5,000 Claiming Price Or Less Since Jan 1st Or Claiming Price $10,000-- One Mile Turf--- Purse $15,000.
6)Diamondmaze(9-2) will be my choice to WP. He last started on May 28 at one mile on grass, hit the gate coming out, settled near the back on a yielding turf course, made a menacing move into the stretch before flattening out late, His last win was also one mile on grass where he broke alertly and took the field wire to wire on the tiring Fair Grounds turf course. I expect him to get a better break today with 3 decent works in July and they might not be able to catch him.
11)Dancing Rock(12-1) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. In his last off a 2 month break, he sat slightly off the pace, engaged the front runner turning into the stretch, but both were caught by late runners in an effort that was better that it looks. He should move forward off that effort and this is his fourth start this year. While he shows no works since his last, the Kirby's owns their own farm and it has a training track, so you can bet he is fit. Could upset my top choice if pace is faster than expected.
9)Spanish Justice(12-1) will complete my tri box. He has been sprinting on grass lately and should show front running speed on the stretch out and is a big threat to my top choice in making the pace too fast early. And for those that have no idea, his sire, Spanish Steps is a full brother to Unbridled's Song and Spanish Steps is sire of G1 BC Turf wire to wire winner and Older Grass Champion Little Mike. So this horse will have speed to spare.
Race 8: Bruce D Memorial Stakes--- 3 YOs--- One Mile AWT--- Purse $100,000.
6)Wile E Coyote(12-1) will be my choice to WP. He won his last start but was DQ to 2nd for drifting in, impeding the runner up. But they were clear of the rest of the field. I usually consider all City Zip's foals up to a mile , especially on grass and the AWT plays a lot like grass. City Zip is a 1/2 brother to Ghostzapper. Wile E Coyote's broodmare sire, Cactus Ridge, is a son of Hennessy who is best known as sire of Johannesburg(sire of Scat Daddy) and Henny Hughes(sire of Beholder). Cactus Ridge won all 4 of his starts and his best foal was the G1 winning filly Hot Cha Cha but this daughter also won almost $550,000 on the track.
8)Nottoway(10-1) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. He should get a nice stalking trip and could be the one to take advantage of an expected speed duel. His sire, Twirling Candy, showed a lot of front running speed in his racing career, but his broodmare sire, Harlan's Holiday, won both the G1 Florida Derby And G1 Blue Grass S before running 7th in the Ky Derby as the lukewarm favorite. His best son, Into Mischief, is a top sire in racing today. And Nottoway shows the style of racing that carried Harlan's Holiday to most of his top graded wins.
7)The Tabulator(2-1) will be my choice to complete my tri box. He is the class of this field but has shown he runs better if he can get a clear lead early which I do not expect him to get. The fields he has beaten are suspect at best and he has yet to beat a top horse. No way is he a single in any exotic wager, IMO.
Race 9: G1 Secretariat Stakes----- 3 YOs---- 1 1/4 Miles Turf---- Purse $400,000.
9)Analyze It(2-1) will be my choice to WP but I will probably only use him in my exotics bets as his odds will be lower than what I am risking to wager on. His sire, Point Of Entry, took a while before he put it all together and then he became a beast to beat, winning 9 of 18 lifetime starts, including 7 of his last 9 starts, including 5 G1 wins. Both of his losses came in the G1 BC Turf when 2nd to the aforementioned Little Mike and 4th to Galileo's son, Magician, both longshots. A single in exotics, IMO.
I am going to throw everyone a serious contender if they want to make money. 6)Ming(20-1) will be my choice to complete the exacta. His sire, Pour Moi, won 3 of 5 lifetime starts, including the G1 Epsom Derby in his final start. Pour Moi is a grandson of Sadler's Wells and also sire upset 2017 G1 Epsom Derby winner Wings Of Eagles(40-1 odds) from his first crop to race. His broodmare sire Persian Bold is a son of Ireland 2 YO champion Bold Lad. The sire of Ming's 2nd dam is Secreto, who beat El Gran Senor in the G1 Epsom Derby. Sire of his 3rd dam is Sham, second to Secretariat in the G1 Ky Derby & Preakness S. And the sire of his 4th dam is Majestic Prince, who was sweeping the 1969 U.S. Triple Crown before suffering a career ending injury to finish 2nd in his only career loss. Don't know about anyone else, but this is one horse that will be in all my exotics and I will probably end up betting some to WP on him. He taking a big step up in class but he would be far from the first to spring an upset in a major U.S. grass race. Joseph O'Brien is a son of Aidan O'Brien who started training because he gain too much weight(due to his height mostly) to tack the weight required on most horses. He is already a G1 winning trainer.
13)Hunting Horn(7-2) will be my choice to complete my tri box. He is trained by Aidan O'Brien and will make his presence felt. His sire, Camelot, is yet another son of Sadler's Wells stallion, Montjeu(like Pour Moi) and Camelot came the closest to sweeping the English TC since 1970 when Nijinsky II turned the hat trick and it was first career loss when a fast closing second. The Belmont Invitational was his first start as a 3 YO and his third should more him forward.
I will try to hit a super in here. On a small super box, I will throw in the 11)Dubby Dubbie(30-1). Then on a biggie super, I will box my top 3 and put 11)Dubby Dubbie in 4th. While I do not think he can beat my top three, I like and respect his trainer, Michele Lovell, enough to put him underneath. And stranger things have happen in horse racing.
10th Race: G1 Beverly D Stakes---- 3 YO & Up Fillies And Mares---- 1 3/16 Miles Turf---- Purse $600,000.
1)Daddy's Lil Darling(8-1) will be my choice to WP. She won the prep for this race while geared down and now comes the acid test, which I expect her to pass with flying colors.
4)Dona Bruja(6-1) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. She ran 2nd in this race last year as the favorite. The horse who upset her, Dacita, first got recognition when she ran past Tepin in the G2 Ballston Spa in her first start in the U.S., the race before Tepin went on an eight race win streak. She will be making her 3rd start this year and first in three months but her works shows she is fit.
7)Fourstar Crook(9-2) will be my choice to complete the tri box. She has three start this year and ran well in all three. She is making her first start in two months but has been on the work tab regularly and should be primed to give her best effort.
And for the second race in a row, I will give another longshot to be on the lookout for. I do not like this one as much as my last one, but I will box a small super using her with my top 3 picks. 6)Oh So Terrible(50-1) will be my choice for that super. Her form does not show much but she has ran in three graded stakes and excuses can be found why she did not run better. But she has been this distance only once in her career and that was the prep for this race, but she ran her best race yet in only her third start this year. Trainer gave her another race to sharpen her speed, then worked her in a 33 4/5 blowout at 3 furlongs on the AWT and then an easy breeze in 102 for 5 furlongs. But the best part is her sire, Cape Blanco. He is a son of Galileo and after winning the G1 Irish Derby at 3 , shipped to the U. S. at 4 and won the G1 Man O' War S, G1 Arlington Million and the G1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic in his only 3 starts in this country. Oh So Terrible broodmare sire, Numerous, hails from the same female family as Sadler's Wells, Nureyev and even Blame.
11th Race: G1 Arlington Million S--- 1 1/4 Miles Turf--- 3 YOs & Up---- Purse $1,000,000.
I think this race is the weakest of the stakes at Arlington this weekend. But still should be competitive. 7)Twenty Four Seven(30-1) will be my choice to WP. His trainer, Roger Brueggemann, took over his training at the start of this year and he won his first 3 starts under his guidance, before finishing sixth in his last race. The owner of this horse is Midwest Thoroughbreds and they have won over 2600 races and purses over $50M. One of their horse you may have heard of is The Pizza Man, who won the Arlington Million in 2015. Trainer? Roger Brueggemann!! Now, Twenty Four Seven is a son of City Zip, which should tell this distance is further that he wants to go. But that is only if you consider the sire side only. His broodmare sire, War Chant, is a son of Danzig and won the G1 BC Turf Mile in his 8th and final start. Hollywood Wildcat, War Chant's dam, won the G1 BC Distaff in her final start. Twenty Four Seven's second dam, Amelia Bearhart, is the dam of Chief Bearhart, who won the G1 BC Turf at Hollywood Park in 1997. Smash it all together and you get a horse that will not be consider by most. But I will take a shot at a monstrous payday, you can bet that.
9) Deauville(6-1) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. He ran third in each of the last two years in the Arlington Million and he took the lead in the stretch both times only to get nipped at the wire. His trainer, Aidan O'Brien, followed basically the same path as last year but has been pointing for this race. And since his sire is Galileo and he is bred on the same pattern as Frankel, there is no way I will leave him out.
2) Spring Quality(8-1) will be my choice to complete my tri box. He normally run fairly close to the lead but was taken back near the back in his last race. I am guessing it was because he was stuck on the far outside on the inner turf course at Belmont, and horses that far out rarely wins, so the jockey was informed to save as much ground as possible before moving out after they turned into the stretch. Plan worked to perfection, but I expect him to contest the early pace in this race.

EDIT: Both Dividsero and Spring Quality has been declared from the race. So I will now use 5) Century Dream(12-1) to complete my tri box. I mostly bypass this horse because I did not recognized the trainer. But he learned under the tutelage of Sheik Mohammad and Godolphin Stables before going out on his own in 2014. He won 26% of his races in his first year as a trainer and has now added a European Mile Classic win to his growing list of accomplishments. Century Dream's sire, Cape Cross is best known in the states as sire of Ouija Board, who raced in the G1 BC &M Turf S three straight years and won twice and finishing 2nd once against solid fillies and mares. His broodmare sire, Echo Of Light was a G2 winning miler in Europe but stretched his speed to 1 1/4 mile once in the G3 Prix Gontaut-Biron in France. But Century Dream has others in his dam family that will make the distance more reasonable.

Race 12: G3 Pucker Up S---- 3 YO Fillies-- 1 1/8 Miles Turf---- Purse $100,000.
My final WP pick will be 7)Madame Milan(20-1). Her dam, Ville La Rouge was the dam of ill fated Ky Derby winner Barbaro. She has ran only on grass and has given a good account of herself except for her only stakes appearance when she hit the gate to get off last but made a good move to be beaten 4 lengths. Delacour is a native Frenchman and he has worked her like most trainers from that country works their horses. They usually only try to keep their horses fresh by giving maintenance breezes and save their best for race day.
8)Deadline(20-1) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. I simply like her dam's bloodlines and judging by her last start in the Ta Wee S at one mile on grass, she looks like she is starting to mature. Kenneth McPeek, is an above average trainer who gets over zealous sometimes, but looks like he has been patience with this one. He gave her a work since her last start, and she indicated she is ready.
12)Smart Shot(15-1) will complete my tri box. She is another that took a few races to figure things out, but she has won her last 2 races. She has three works since her last race, all good and gives the impression there is another move forward coming. Her sire, Skipshot never raced on grass though he is bred for that surface. All his wins came on all weather tracks in California, including the G2 Swaps S. Her broodmare sire, Smarty Jones won the 2004 Ky Derby & Preakness S before suffering his only career loss in the Belmont S when 2nd. However, his sire, Elusive Quality, is a known sire of grass runners and another son, Raven's Pass beat Curlin on the AWT at Santa Anita after winning several G1 in Europe.
I will box a super in here and will use 10)Secret Message(12-1) to complete that box. All she needs is to learn how to break better and she will be tough to beat. Her trainer, Graham Motion, has elected to give Irad Ortiz, Jr another shot at getting her to settle in the gate. Her sire, Hat Trick is a son of Sunday Silence and his foals usually shows speed from the gate. Her broodmare sire, Gone West, and sire of her 2nd dam, Unbridled's Song, also showed good speed leaving the gate, so it is only a matter of time before she will also.
These are my picks. I think I will make some good money but I always think that. It mainly comes down to track conditions and who likes or dislikes the surfaces most.

Most shocking nonqualifiers of the last decade according to betting odds

My Choices For Arlington Million Day 8-10-2019

Rank	Year	Country	Artist	Song	Average odds to win the final
1	2015	Finland	Pertti Kurikan Nimipäivät	"Aina mun pitää"	16
2	2010	Sweden	Anna Bergendahl	"This Is My Life"	16
3	2011	Norway	Stella Mwangi	"Haba Haba"	20
4	2010	Croatia	Feminnem	"Lako je sve"	25
5	2014	Israel	Mei Finegold	"Same Heart"	33
6	2013	San Marino	Valentina Monetta	"Crisalide (Vola)"	33
7	2014	Belgium	Axel Hirsoux	"Mother"	34
8	2018	Belgium	Sennek	"A Matter of Time"	40
9	2011	Turkey	Yüksek Sadakat	"Live It Up"	40
10	2015	Iceland	Maria Olafs	"Unbroken"	40

I am going to like a lot of horses that will get good odds in today's races. You can use your own judgement whether you will want to take a risk or not, but that is really my best game. I struggle the most when I try to put too many favorites in the mix or when the races results in a lot of favorites doing what they are supposed to do. While I am use to waiting until my horses runs the way I expect them to, I can also understand others who might get impatient. The rewards always outweighs the frustration but it took me years to figure that part out. And it will anyone else also that plays the races the way I do. But value is what will eventually determine whether you win or lose over the long run, another fact that I spent years before I realized it.
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1st Race:
7)Contendress(9-2) Has made two starts, first race tried to contest the early pace and faded. 2nd race, laid off the pace and tried to make up late ground but finished fairly even. Now adds blinkers and looks fast enough to outbreak the favorites if the blinkers helps. The unknown is the other first time starters who shows speed in their works. Her sire, Competitive Edge, a son of Ky Derby winner Super Saver, broke his maiden in his first start, in wire to wire fashion finishing clear by 10+ lengths at Saratoga in 109 4/5.
4)Mysteriously(8-1) First time starter that has some good works for debut. Both sire, Tiznow and broodmare sire, Bernardini, were better in middle distance races, her 2nd dam, Burmilla, a daughter of Storm Cat, won her first two starts, both at 6 furlongs and both in 110 flat at two different tracks. With her, the break will be the key.
3)Josephine Baker(9-5) has made one start and set an uncontested pace but faded when challenged. However, her trainer is leading the trainer standing comfortably this year and will have to include. Also will run with lasix for the first time in her 2nd start and both her works since were more likely maintenance breezes to keep her fit.
1)Chez Paree(3-1) Has made one start and contested the pace throughout but could not get by the wire to wire winner while clear of the rest. Two works since that effort, including her last which suggests she should take a step forward. Broodmare sire, Defrere, was always overshadowed by his full brother, Dehere, a champion 2 YO Colt and sire of Take Charge Lady, among others, but both were known for siring foals that had high speed. Definitely not out of it, but will have more front running speed to contend with.
Bets: $5 Ex Box 4-7($10), $1 Tri Box 3-4-7($6), .10 Super Box 1-3-4-7(2.40), $1 Super Key 7 with 1-3-4 with 1-3-4 with 1-3-4($6). Total Risk $24.40.
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2nd Race:
6)Lyman(20-1) has made one start and trailed the field. However, he tossed his head at the start, was leaned on in the early stages by the runaway winner and simply gave others to much of a head start, especially in a race that was that quick. Now two more works since, one easy and the other that shows he has some fronting speed. A better break and a cleaner trip should put him over the top.
1)High Heater(6-1) First time starter. Trainer is 10% lifetime winning trainer and normally prepares his trainees with a series of slow works. To me, that six furlong work just before his first effort should give him plenty of wind. High Heater has shown flashes of speed in a couple of his works and his bloodlines suggests he should be high speed. His sire, Creative Cause, broke his maiden in his debut at the old Hollywood Park in 56 4/5 seconds for five furlongs and took the Best Pal S in his 2nd start in a 115 3/5 for 6 1/2 furlongs.
5)Top Justice(12-1) Another first time starter. He has some good works for his debut, including a 6 furlong work like my second choice that should help. While his trainer has a 8% lifetime winning percentage in his ninth year as a trainer, he trains mostly cheap stock and spots them aggressively, and has banked more than $7M without a big name runner. Top Justice sire, Danza won a maiden race in his first start, the Arkansas Derby in his 4th career start and finished 3rd to California Chrome in the 2014 Ky Derby, his career finale.
9)Fast Dreamer(9-2)Another first time starter. He also has some good works and bloodlines. However, trainer stop on him for almost a month before putting in his two best work for his first start. But the stoppage as he was approaching being ready always raises a red flag, because it usually indicates a minor ailment or sickness, so I will include underneath mostly.
Bets: $10 WP 6($20), $5 Ex Box 1-6($10), $1 Tri Box 1-5-6($6), .10 Super Box 1-5-6-9($2.40), .50 Super Key 6 with 1-5-9 with 1-5-9 with 1-5-9($3). Total Risk $41.40.
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3rd Race:
6)Detour(15-1) She has made for starts and has not placed in any. However, her trainer has been trying to get her back on grass since her first effort and looks like he might get that opportunity here. Her last two was switched to the AWT which is probably not the surface she wants. Her sire, Bellamy Road, smashed the stakes record in the 2005 Wood Memorial and came 1/5 second off Riva Ridge's track record set when he was 4 YO in 1973. Detour's female family has quite a bit of grass influence. Three works since her last effort for a trainer who has more success on grass than the AWT.
3)Just A Look(12-1) First time starter that has some good works and nice bloodlines for grass. Dam won 3 of 7 lifetime starts, all three on grass, including a listed stakes, with a late kick in Southern California. While her works has been a little inconsistent for my taste, her trainer will sneak a live one through, on occasion.
7)Meghan(5-1) She has made 4 lifetime starts, with one third her only board finish. However, she has had the same problem as my top choice, in that her trainer has tried to get her back on grass after her first effort, and in fact, this makes the four race in a row that they faced each other. While she has beaten my top choice all three times, it was by a nose, nose and 1/4 length, on surfaces she should have had a small advantage on.
5)Quality Too Spare(6-1) She has made three starts, with a third in her last her best effort. While I normally try to find a trainer who has a little more success than this one(no wins yet), she has enough speed to clear early and could hang on for a minor reward, depending on what how bad the others might fade.
Bets: $10 WP 6($20), Ex Box 3-6($10), $1 Tri Box 3-6-7($6), .10 Super Box 3-5-6-7($2.40), .50 Super Key 6 with 3-5-7 with 3-5-7 with 3-5-7($3). Total Risk $41.40.
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4th Race:
7)Blue Sky Kowboy(20-1) Has made 3 starts this year after an seven month break. Won his 2nd start, though it was restricted to state bred and was his first other than grass win and then ran poor against in a state bred stakes race, also moved to the AWT from grass. Though his recent stats shows otherwise, trainer has more than held his own with grass runners throughout his career. Just believe he is ready to give his best effort this year.
6)My Bariley(4-1) Has made 4 starts since his last winning effort, with two against graded stakes horse and another in a stakes which he has previously won. Also holds a recent class edge against these with a good work since his last effort. The one to beat.
8)Cuestion De Tempo(5-1) Has made 4 starts since an eight month break, with his last arguably the best effort since he returned. He has recorded two good works since his last and a mile fits him better than others in here.
3)Marzo(9-2) Has made 5 starts this year, winning his fourth start as an odds on favorite, most likely because others seen his yearling purchase price of $1M. However, that buyer(Coolmore) has long decided he did not have the ability they originally thought he had and decided to cut their losses and move on for $35K. That win was in a conditioned allowance, so I doubt he can do much better than a minor share, though his trainer has turned around the fortunes of several horses. This, so far, does not look like one of those times, though.
Bets: $10 WP 7($20), $5 Ex Box 6-7($10), $1 Tri Box 6-7-8($6), $3 Tri Key 6-7 with 6-7 with 8($6), .10 Super Box 3-6-7-8($2.40). Total Risk $44.40.
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5th Race:
8)Jazz Channel(5-1) Made one start on AWT and showed speed to top of stretch before tiring slightly. Now switches to grass which is the surface she should prefer most. One maintenance work since that effort should help make the forward move necessary to compete in this race. Her sire, English Channel, ran his best races on grass and most of his foals seems to like grass much better than AWTs or dirt. Her broodmare sire, Bernardini is better known for his abilities on dirt and his best foals has followed suit, though a few had shown they like the grass more.
9)Summer Day(12-1) First time starter. Has the workout pattern that has proven most beneficial to me. Both her sire, Sky Mesa, and her broodmare sire, Empire Maker, were G1 winners on dirt but never tried the grass. However, both their pedigrees suggests they could possibly have been even better on that surface, judging by the foals they have produce. Trainer normally only wins a few every year from limited runners, but Summer Day's 2nd dam, G3 SW Summer Mis, was his top runner and her daughter, Summer Again, spent her career in Illinois under his care, though neither was tried on grass.
5)Fall Moon(12-1) First time starter. Also has the workout pattern that seems to work best, working consistently every 7 days. Her sire, Lea, was a G1 SW on dirt and a G3 SW and G1 Placed on grass. However, he has Giant's Causeway and Galileo cross, so both surfaces have suited him. Broodmare sire, Quality Road, also was a G1 SW on dirt but his foals have performed well on both, especially around the mile distances.
2)Aunt Dorothy(9-2) Made one start and finished third. Pedigree fits nicely against these. One work since that effort which was a little too fast for my liking, but trainer tends to make right call more often than not, especially for grass. About a second slower and would have been my second choice and biggest perceived threat to my top choice.
Bets: $10 WP 8($20), $5 Ex Box 8-9($10), $1 Tri Box 5-8-9($6), .10 Super Box 2-5-8-9($2.40), $1 Super Key 8 With 2-5-9 with 2-5-9 with 2-5-9. Total Risk $44.40.
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6th Race:
1)Buttered Noodles(8-1) Has made one start. Tracked front runners, made a bid for the lead at the half then flatten out and faded on the AWT. Has two good works, including a 6 furlong work that is rarely seen in racing today, but used to be an angle as effective as first time lasix when a vet had to determine if bleeding occurred during a race or workout. Buttered Noodles's sire is City Zip, sire of known sprinters/milers on all surfaces. His dam, Flowerbomb, is 1/2 sister to Materiality and My Miss Sophia. She won twice in 14 starts, both at 1 1/16 mile, an AWT maiden race and N/W 2 allowance on grass.
Recklessness(15-1) Has made one start. Broke slowly and pick up horses while not making a dent into the runaway winner margin but just missed catching the runner up. Even good works before that effort proved futile. No works since but returns in 2 weeks, so another work would have been a little too much. A better start is expected. His sire, Midshipman, won the G1 Del Mar Futurity & G1 BC Juvenile Dirt, beating Pioneerof The Nile in the latter while landing 2 YO Champion Colt Award and is a 1/2 brother to the dam of Frosted. His dam made one start on grass and like her son, broke slowly and made up a little ground. 2nd dam won 5 of 18 starts, all at mid distances on dirt including a small stakes race.
9)Mister Not Funny(12-1) Made one start in the same race as my top choice. His works before that effort signaled a mid pack finish was most likely and that is where he finished after break slowly and waiting until the stretch to give his best effort, in a distance much to short and likely not best surface either. He goes with first time lasix in here and a surface and distance that he should perform better in, off two similar works as before his first effort. Still, improvement is expected and could surprise.
7)The Gray Blur(5-1) Made one start and exits out of the race as two of my other choices in here, which I normally will not even consider putting that many together from same effort. However, he ran an even race and basically was eliminated at the start with a less than ideal break for him. His sire, Fast Anna, hails from the same sire line(El Prado) and dam line(Kitten's First) as Kitten's Joy. The Gray Blur's dam line will also help him on this surface. Two works, including a solid one and the addition of blinkers could be all he needs to take this field from gate to wire. Beware!
Bets: $10 WP 1($20), $5 Ex Box 1-3($10), $1 Tri Box 1-3-9($6), $3 Tri Key 1 with 3-9 with 3-9($6), .10 Super Box 1-3-7-9($2.40), .50 Super Key 1 with 3-7-9 with 3-7-9 with 3-7-9($3). Total Risk $47.40.
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7th Race:
4)Rustic Rick(30-1) He returned from a 7 month break, took a few races to get in his best form and then sprung a major upset two starts back in his fourth effort since his return. Has three lifetime efforts on grass, all at one mile, but was asked to face much too tough in his last in his first start against winner. This will be his first time getting a firm turf with competition that simply matches his ability at best. His sire, Country Day, won several sprint grass stakes but also finished 2nd in the 2011 BC Turf Sprint. Dam, Ric Rac, won 4 of 19 lifetime starts, all 4 on grass at either a mile or 1 1/16 mile. No works since his first effort against winners, but returns in two weeks.
2)Jackfruit(20-1) Also broke his maiden 2 back on the AWT and then entered against winners in the same type class level in next. But he finally gets the surface he was really bred for, though he takes a couple steps up in class. His sire, Get Stormy, was a multiple G1 SW, earning more than $1.6M in his racing career. Dam, Ride 'Em Cowgirl, won her only stakes in an off the turf on the AWT, but also ran 2nd in a grass stakes race. This family traces much deeper than these two, but this is enough to let me come to my decision on whether to include or not.
12)Bird(30-1) Made one start and broke his maiden in same class as my 2nd choice. He has a pedigree that suggests he will perform pretty good on grass also, though not as close up in his bloodlines as my choice above him. Sire, Gio Ponti, was a multiple G1 SW on grass and two time grass champion in the U.S. Bird's 3rd dam, Oh What A Dance, produced Heavenly Prize, a G! champion herself and producer of Pure Prize and Good Reward, both foals of Storm Cat and better known for their grass runners.
3)True Loyalty(6-1) He will be working on his fourth start since a 10 month break, with improvement noted in his last. This is one of my angle horse that I will normally not bet against, but I like the others as good or better. While he has no works since his last and comes into this race off a three week break, that is borderline for me to consider him. Exercise helps horses first to get in racing shape and then to maintain that fitness.
This will be one race that I will be sure to box a dime superfecta and "waste" $2.40. It this type of payoff potential that I have always mentioned over and over. The potential for a dime super returning $7-8K makes it a bet I will not let pass me by, but others can.
Bets: $10 WP 4($20), $5 Ex Box 2-4($10), $1 Tri Box 2-4-12($6), .10 Super Box 2-3-4-12($2.40), $1 Super Key 4 with 2-3-12 with 2-3-12 with 2-3-12($6). Total Risk $44.40.
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8th Race:
2)Dazzling Truths(20-1) Made four starts this year with a third his best effort. Here is a horse that actually proves what wotks can do to your fitness and form. His workouts pattern has been spotty and ineffective. 2 works in 23 days to prepare for first start in almost 5 months. Then wheeled back in 9 days and 18 days, which is ok but on outer edge of moving a horse forward. Then a 53 day layoff with 2 works a month apart and he ran flat. So the only reason I will use him in here is most seems like they would rather sprint and he wheels back yet again in 11 days, which is enough time to recuperate but still have what conditioning he got from his last effort left. Edge in a wide open field.
4)Can't Hide From Me(7-2) Unbeaten in three starts but now changes barn and has one slow work since his last effort. Not sure he wants a mile distance but his connections picked a good spot to find out. However, while field is fairly weak, he is be facing his toughest test yet.
1)Sovereign Impact(20-1) Claimed out of his last start by connections who tends to get the best results from their trainees. He has won 2 sprints, one at 5 furlongs and one at 6 furlongs, both on Indiana Downs speed favoring track that often helps front runners look better than they actually are. Has had very little impact in races away from that track. One fairly decent work since the claim.
11) Dabo(5-1) Only one in field that has proven that this distance is within his scope, but both wins have came in races restricted to state breds. His maiden win at 6 furlongs came against open breds and his last to first effort saw him beat my top choice in the first start of his career. He has several good efforts while overmatched in Turfway Park 3 YO preps for the Ky Derby. Sharp right now as he wheels back in two weeks.
Bets: $5 Ex Box 2-4($10), $1 Tri Box 1-2-4($6), .10 Super Box 1-2-4-11($2.40). Total Risk $18.40.
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9th Race:
6)Magic Wand(3-1) Wanted no part of Enable in last, but not many does. She has some races that makes her a contender for the win. Only difference,is she has tried the boys in top races on several occasions over here and ran respectable in them. like her stablemate, she contested Europe's biggest 3 YO fillies races last year.
1)Fleeting(5-2) Making first U.S. start after running in top 3 YO fillies races in Europe. Nicely bred horse who is bred along the same lines as the favorite in here. Only trainer that could possibly give Brown fits with his own handling of his fillies stars, though he is better in Europe when he does not have to travel half way around the globe.
7) Sistercharlie(8-5) Most likely will be odds on and I will try to beat. Makes 2nd start this year but like usual, Brown had her fit for her first test. 2 more good works and looks like that race took nothing out of her. Won this race last year in a contest between 3 Brown's trainees. One to beat.
5)Remember Daisy(30-1) Gets the acid test now but has shown some ability in her career. Though not likely to beat the top three, I will try to beat the rest in here with this one. No works since last, but trainer has farm nearby and probably has used it to keep her fit.
Bets: .50 Super Box 1-5-6-7($12), $3 Super Key 6 with 1-5-7 with 1-5-7 with 1-5-7($18). Total Risk $30.
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10th Race:
7)Valid Point(5-1) Has not started since early June but has the best workout pattern since, and Brown is the one I first started noticing it with. Unbeaten in two starts and bred well enough to make it three, especially since the distance has been shorten to a mile on grass.
5)Ry's The Guy(15-1) Broken his maiden two back and then won his first level allowance race in his last and first effort on grass. As his bloodlines suggests, he put in his best performance to date when entered on the correct surface. Definitely not out of this and could surprise. Sire, Distorted Humor, performed in top level on dirt throughout his racing career, but as a sire is better known as an off track specialist or grass sire. Broodmare sire, Royal Academy, won the mile BC Turf Mile in his last start and when on to be a leading sire in several countries for several years. He is a 1/2 brother to Terlingua, the dam of Storm Cat.
1)Clint Maroon(20-1) After three straight win on grass, his last two had good possibilities why he did not win. His first of those two was a little further than his bloodlines suggests would be his best distance and in his most recent start, he stumbled at the start and then had to circle 6 wide to get into contention, giving his opponents a decided edge. Since that start, he has switched barns and has turned in three good works. His sire, Oasis Dream, was a sprint champion in Europe while his broodmare sire, El Prado is sire of both Medaglia D'Oro and Kitten's Joy. Another that is in with a good shot at an upset.
6)Fog Of War(3-1) Has made 2 starts this year with the second a significant improvement over his first start. However, he will need to take his class up another level or two to compete against these. His sire, War Front, is leading miler grass sire since the death of Scat Daddy. His dam, Say, a royally bred daughter of Galileo out of G1 SW Riskaverse has yet produced anyone close to either parent. Therefore, I will bet the three I like better and make this one beat me.
Bets: $5 Ex Box 5-7($10), $2 Ex Box 1-5-7($12), $3 Tri Box 1-5-7($18), .50 Super Box 1-5-6-7($12), $1 Super Key 7 with 1-5-6 with 1-5-6 with 1-5-6($6). Total Risk $58.
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11th Race:
8)Captivating Moon(20-1) Made one start this year, finishing third in the prep for this race. Ran against good 3 YOs last year while never quite getting over type. New year and a freshening while giving him more time to mature could definitely be the answer. Two nice works since and he should be ready for the next step forward.
1)Robert Bruce(7-2) Made two starts this year, the first simply an out to get him fit. The second start saw him run 2nd to his stablemate, though he had the post position that tends to struggle compared to his stablemate who got another super trip from a post that tends to get good trips on Belmont inner turf course.
3)Bricks And Mortar(8-5) Is the favorite and deserving so. However, he is due for a not so good trip that will test his ability to overcome adversity that has taken many good runners down a notch or two. He is winding down his career as his breeding rights was sold to Japan and he departs after his last race this year, supposedly the BC Turf. Best U.S turf horse in training until someone knocks him down a notch.
4)Catcho En Die(30-1) Has made three starts this year and clearly been off form. However, he ran 4th in this race last year but was moved up to third via a dq of original third place finisher. Now on his fourth start since returning, including his first against the top two choices in here, I look for him to stick around because this field is similar to last year's field, with two horses dwarfing the others and he comes in not having a hard fought win he was coming off of, like last year.
Bets: $10 WP 8($20), $5 Ex Box 1-8($10), $1 Tri Box 1-3-8($6), .10 Super Box 1-3-4-8($2.40), $1 Super Key 8 with 1-3-4 with 1-3-4 with 1-3-4($6). Total Risk $44.40.
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12th Race:
7)Comic Kitten(15-1) 4 starts this year with 2 seconds. But after a mini break of two months, she was entered in an allowance race that the winner slowed the pace down to a crawl and was able to hold her safe in a final time that was on the pedestrian side for grass especially. She needed two more efforts to recover, including drawing the rail on Saratoga turf course, where winners rarely make an impact from. Now she is working on her third try since that good first effort try and look for her to come alive. She has the same monstrous Sadler's Wells cross as Enable, though thru two different sons and grandsons.
2)Aunt Hattie(20-1) Has made 6 starts this year. Working on her fourth effort since her last winning effort with her last being her best effort, indicating she is regaining top form. One work since that effort should help her to retain her form. Her sire, Camelot, came the closest to sweeping the English TC since Nijinsky turned that hat trick in 1970. Her broodmare sire, Danehill, represent the same sire/dam family cross that has produced many top European G1 winners and champions.
10)Art Of Almost(5-1) 5 starts this year, breaking her maiden in her third start, then a conditioned allowance in her fourth start before finishing 3rd against a good G2 field of older mares, just missing second. 4 good works since that effort should have her in her best form.
3)Lightscameraaction(20-1) 3 starts this year, winning her most recent effort, but with some room for improvement. She showed some promise as a 2 YO and will most likely show more promise as she reaches peak conditioning. 2nd dam, Cross Traffic, was a multiple G1 SW and her best son, Cross Traffic, a son of Unbridled's Song, also won the G1 Whitney H and finished 2nd in the G1 Metropolitan Mile.
Bets: $10 WP 7($20), $5 Ex Box 2-7($10), $1 Tri Box 2-7-10($6), .10 Super Box 2-3-7-10($2.40), $1 Super Box 7 with 2-3-10 with 2-3-10 with 2-3-10($6). Total Risk $44.40.
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By my calculation, I have listed $483 worth of bets I will make at Arlington tomorrow. So my goal this week will be to cash tickets worth around $1500. Anything more will be like gravy on top, and anything less will make me try harder again next weekend.

My Picks For Saratoga August 18, 2018.

I have identified some horses that I am willing to take a chance on Saturday at Saratoga, provided that the track is not off. This seems to be my biggest problem thus for this year as the weather forecast and even equibase has been either wrong or ahead of the actual weather that as occurred almost weekly. At some tracks, a little moisture will not affect the outcome that much, but at Saratoga, it will make a world of difference and if you do not adjust, you will struggle. And while I have hit some nice paying races on off tracks, I tend to get more consistency on fast and firm surfaces. So let's begin.
1st Race: Maiden Claiming $40,000--- 1 1/16 Mile Inner Turf--- 3 YO & Up--- Purse $45,000.
If this race stays on grass, my choice to WP will be 11)Letterman(5-1). He has made one lifetime start, broke last, was ranked indicating he was intimidated by seeing other horses around him, but still made a move into contention behind a fast pace before tiring in the stretch. Overall, not a bad race and a good learning experience. His trainer took his time to find another spot for a horse the owner paid $250,000 for and decided to enter him in a claiming race for $40,000. However, both his 2nd start and the softer spot should help him get a better break and make him more competitive. Trainers sometimes will bluff on a horse's potential, in order to get a win for a nice purse. He has bloodlines that is fancy by a lot of breeders and he is bred to excel on grass.
4)Telecommunication(10-1) will be my choice to complete the exacta. He, too, has made one lifetime start last year against Maraud and brow slowly, then went wide into the stretch and failed to make up any ground. After a break of almost a year, back to back solid works and a drop into the claiming ranks, he should be ready to display the front running speed he is bred for. a $42,000 yearling purchase, his sire, Data Link, is a son of major grass influence War Front. Data Link biggest win came in the G1 Maker's 46 Mile S in 2011, but he also ran 2nd in that same race in 2012 to Wise Dan, Champion Older Grass Horse that year. His broodmare sire, Mizzen Mast, started his career in France, ran 2nd in the G1 Grand Prix De Paris and after 2 failed attempts in major grass races in the U.S. he finished his career by winning the G1 Malibu S and G2 Strub S on Santa Anita dirt track. Should show front running speed against these.
2)Azzedine(5-2) has made 5 starts and finished 2nd in three of them. After running an even race for $75000 maiden claimers, his trainer, Chad Brown, has decided to give him a drop of several class levels to try to get him in the winners column. His slightly off the pace style fits well against these. A $336,000 disperal 2 YO purchase, he has yet to meet expectations.
While several of these have not performed anywhere near the expectations of their purchase price, 10)Arch Of The Diver, has to be the one owners have given up on. Off almost two years, apparently to try as a stallion, he has been gelded and returned to training. Simply trying to recoup as much money of his $300,000 purchase price as they can get back. Will not play this one at all, on grass or dirt.
2nd Race: Maiden Special Weight--- 2 YOs--- 1 1/16 Mile Turf--- Purse $85,000.
I will bet the 6)Southern Bridge(4-1) to WP. A $70,000 yearling purchase, he has made one start on grass where he broke near the back and basically ran an even race, though he passed a few horses on a turf course rated firm, but was obviously yielding or good at best. You can tell by how slow the pace was and the front runner went wire to wire.
11)My America(10-1) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. A buyback by owners because the reserve was not met at $335,000, they decided to race the horse instead. His sire is Medaglia D'Oro but his dam Reaching is a daughter of Dansili, a sire who has made his presence felt in the BC turf races through his daughters. Maryjinsky, her dam, is a 1/2 sister to Better Than Honour, the dam of Belmont S winners Rags To Riches & Jazil. My America has one start, an off the turf sprint where he ran an even race. I will discard that race because it was much too short for his bloodlines and also this one will perform better on grass.
This race is stacked with well bred horses but which ones will show front running speed is anyone guess. That said, I will use 3)Vineyard Sound(15-1) and box him in my trifecta. His sire, Stormy Atlantic is a son of Storm Cat and his best foals shows front running speed on grass in top class. Vineyard Sound's broodmare sire, Sultry Song, was a multiple G1 stakes winner on dirt but was also G1 stakes placed in the Secretariat S on grass when third, beaten 2 heads for the win.
Another to consider is 5)Ian Glass(10-1), another first time starter who is throwing decent works for his debut. His sire, Hard Spun, came close to stealing the Ky Derby before running 2nd against Street Sense and his sire, Danzig, is known for siring speedy grass runners, too. His broodmare sire is Galileo, top distance grass horse in the world today. His trainer and owner just upset the G1 Secretariat last weekend with 38-1 shot Carrick. However, instead of crossing with Danzig in his fourth generation on his dam side, he crosses with Northern Dancer, through 3/4 brothers Sadler's Wells & Nureyev. If I decide to bet a super, this one will be in my box.
3rd Race: Claiming $50,000--- 3 YOs & Up--- 7 Furlongs--- Purse $70,000.
I will make a small wager on the 3)Fundy's Tide(15-1) to WP. He is a need the lead type to perform his best and he should get the lead against these. And it is very difficult to catch a front running type that can sprint clear early then slow the pace down and have something left for the stretch. His last race was simply to far for his bloodlines and he will welcome the cut back to a more reasonable distance.
2)Sir Ballantine(10-1) will be my choice for an exacta box. He has never ran under a mile but his pedigree suggests that will be his best distance. His dam, Wind Flow won 5 of 7 lifetime starts, including three stakes in So. California, flashing 109 and change times but did not win past 6 1/2 furlongs and was not even tried past 7 furlongs. This owner paid $210,000 for this horse as a 2 YO and watched while McPeek was over zealous with this horse. He finally turned the horse over to another trainer four starts back and the horse responded with back to back wins at one mile. But his last two was too long and his trainer looks like he finally realized that. Even his works is screaming sprinter and has for a while. Good chance play against these, especially across the board.
I will use the 6)Daddy D T(9-2) in my tri box. He should be the beneficiary of a lot of cheap speed who should tire and come running late but should sit close enough early to make it count.
4th Race: Maiden Special Weight--- 2 YOs--- 6 Furlongs--- Purse $85,000.
My bet to WP will go on 8)Cromwell Avenue(12-1). A $210,000 2 YO purchase, his sire, Flashback is a son of Tapit who beat Golden Cents in the G2 San Felipe and then ran second to that rival in the G1 Santa Anita Derby. His broodmare sire, Wolf Power, was a South African champion grandson of Round Table but has many foals to race in the U.S. and most are blazing speed that is difficult to run down. He has one start but he did not break very well, so I will give him another chance, especially since his 2 works since are good.
4)Endorsed(6-1) will be my choice for my exacta box. His sire is Medaglia D'Oro and his dam is Dance Card, a G1 stakes winning daughter of Tapit, whose last start was a fast closing third to Groupie Doll(2 time winner of BC Filly Sprint) and Judy The Beauty(who returned in 2014 to win the BC Filly Sprint). There is another colt in this race that is bred exactly on the same sire & broodmare sire line(trained by Pletcher) and his dam has a similar record to the dam of this horse. While this colt was retained for racing by his breeders, the Pletcher colt was purchased for $320,000 by his owners.
My pick to complete my tri box will be 1)Pointer View(12-1). His sire is Paynter, a son of Awesome Again out of a full sister to Tiznow. His broodmare sire, Indian Ocean, won three of five lifetime starts with 2 thirds and Surf Cat beat him both times and they both are grandsons of Storm Cat. When he broke his maiden at 6 1/2 furlongs, he ran a 115 flat while in hand the last part. He was purchased as a 2 YO for $200,000 after bringing $80,000 as a yearling.
7)Ahead Of Plan(5-2) will be my 4th choice if I decide to box a super. He was purchased for $475,000 at a 2 YO in training sale earlier this year. He has the works and bloodlines to win this, though.
5th Race: Claiming $40,000--- 3 YO Fillies--- 6 Furlongs--- Purse $64,000.
My pick to win will be 5)Shape Shifter(7-2). She pressed a fast pace in her last in the slop,and got caught late at 3-5. Penn National favors late runners when the pace is contested, even on off tracks, unlike Saratoga. Pino, her trainer, wins at 21% of his lifetime starts and Irad Ortiz Jr. has the mount. I look for her to draw off as she chooses against these but do not expect good odds, as there will be little.
My pick to complete my exacta box will be 8)Simona(15-1). She will sit a few lengths off the early pace but should be able to get by most of the tiring speed to finish 2nd. She was claimed out of her last two starts and now James Ryerson takes over as trainer. While Ryerson best training days are in the past, he will always be known for preparing Unbridled's Song to win the BC Juvenile in his third lifetime start and would win the Fla Derby and Wood Memorial under his tutelage at 3. So he can get a horse ready and her work since her last is a step in the right direction.
4)Richie'slilwildcat(3-1) will be my choice for 3rd. She has a lot of front running speed which is always dangerous at Saratoga but she tires late with or without pressure. And she will feel the pressure today as these are better speed that what she is accustomed to running against but should hold third in this weak field.
6th Race: Maiden Special Weight--- 2 YOs--- 6 Furlongs--- Purse $85,000.
My pick to WP is 4)Kentucky Wildcat(12-1). He is a homebred which simply means the breeder did not sell him, but kept him for racing and breeding purposes later. His sire is Tapit and his dam, Better Lucky, ran 2nd in the 2014 BC Filly Sprint in her last start to Judy The Beauty. However, she is a multiple G1 winning daughter of Ghostzapper. While her works could be better if the trainer wants to tip others, her pedigree and the fact she has work steadily is good enough for me to take a chance on.
3)Most Mischief(10-1) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. His sire, Into Mischief, is a 1/2 brother to Beholder and a top sire in the game today. His broodmare sire, Elusive Quality, sired several speedy types including Smarty Jones(winner of the Ky Derby & Preakness S) and Raven's Pass(winner of the BC Classic). Most Mischief has a 1/2 sister that was trained by this trainer and after taking a few starts to mature, became a SW of close to $300,000. He has started twice and finished third both times, both in good times. He also sports one of the best money making angles in the game and that is finishing 3rd in his last while beaten more than 2 lengths by both the winner & runner-up. Dangerous at solid odds.
O am going to go out on a limb and pick 10)Quick Entry (12-1) to include in my tri box. His sire, Point Of Entry, was a multiple G1 grass winning son of Dynaformer, who is best remembered as sire of ill fated Ky Derby winner Barbaro and Ky Derby 3rd Perfect Drift. Point Of Entry's dam is a daughter of Seeking The Gold. Quick Entry's broodmare sire is Cape Town, another son of Seeking The Gold. Hennessy is sire of his 2nd dam and he is best known as grandsire of Scat Daddy. His last work signals he is ready to win early and while his trainer wins with 6 % of his first time starters, he is dangerous to leave out of any exotic bets.
I will box a small super by including the 2)Code Of Honor(6-1). While Shug is usually not interested in asking his horses to win in their first start, I have to included him because Will Farish is his owner and breeder. He put this horse in a sale but his reserve was not met, so he decided to race him. He tried to sale another horse years ago with the same reserve and there were no takers. The horse name? Sunday Silence who went on to win the Ky Derby, Preakness, and BC Classic as a 3 YO and was leading sire every year in Japan during his stallion career. Code Of Honor's sire is Noble Mission, a multiple G1 winning full brother to Frankel. His dam, Reunited, won the G3 Thoroughbred Club Of America S at 7 furlongs for her only graded stakes win. I will wait until placing any across the board money on this horse, but only because Shug is more interested in racing experience than asking a horse for too much too soon.
7th Race: Allowance--- 3 YOs & Up Fillies Restricted To NY Bred ----N/W 1 Other Than Maiden, Claiming Or Starter Or Which Have Never Won 2 Races--- One Mile Turf-- Purse $77,000.
1)Under Suspicion(12-1) is who I will bet to WP. She is making her first start on grass. Her sire, Friend Or Foe, is a son of A.P. Indy's son Friends Lake and his dam is a daughter of Unbridled. Friend Or Foe won 2 NY Bred Stakes and the Easy Goer S but also gave a good account of himself in several G1 stakes races, including the Travers, Whitney S and the Cigar Mile H. Under Suspicion's dam, Misty Rosette, is a 3/4 sister to Littleprincessemma, the dam of TC winner American Pharoah. Misty Rosette won 4 of 8 lifetime starts including 3 stakes races and ran 3rd in the G1 Test S and the G2 Forward Gal S. While none of this points to whether she will like the grass, there are major grass influence dotted throughout her pedigree that suggest she will. My choice in a weak field.
4)Way Smart(7-2) will be my pick to complete my exacta box. She should be ready to win and move on to the next set of conditions as this is her fourth start this year. With a solid work since her last, and bloodlines to match, she will be a huge disappointment if she does not win in this spot. A key in the horizontals, IMO.
3)Hollywood Cat(3-1) is my choice to complete the tri box. She is the only one with enough proven bloodlines to knock out my 2nd choice. Her sire Courageous Cat was a G1 winner on grass and her broodmare sire, Cryptoclearance, is the grandsire of Candy Ride.
8th Race: Lake Placid S(Grade 2)--- 3 YOs Fillies--- 1 1/8 Miles Turf--- Purse $300,000.
i will bet the 3)Capla Temptress(6-1) to WP. The expected favorite beat her in last year's BC Juvenile Fillies Turf at 1 mile on grass but she steadied early and that gave the winner all the cushion she needed. Capla Temptress has made two starts since and both came this year. In her first start, she just missed winning the G1 Poule D'Essai Des Pouliches(Fr 1,000 Guineas) that is their first race in their TC series for fillies. Then shipped back to Belmont, she finished 7th beaten almost 4 lengths in the G1 Belmont Oaks but was not likely to beat the winner on that day. Her sire, Lope De Vega and grandsire Shamardal(from first crop of Giant's Causeway) each won the first two legs of the French TC but neither attempted to complete the sweep in the St Leger at 1 3/4 miles. Now transferred to Mott's barn and with 2 good works since, she will be tough to deny.
2)Daddy Is A Legend(4-1) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. While she has been beaten by the expected favorite in all three meetings between these, she now is going a distance she should enjoy more than the choice will. Her sire is Scat Daddy, a top grass sire. Her broodmare sire, Benchmark, is a 1/2 brother to multiple G1 distance grass winner, Tranquility Lake. Their dam is a daughter of Danzig, another top influence on grass. Nice work since her last indicates she is ready to turn the tables on the favorite.
7)Andina Del Sur(15-1) will be my choice to complete my tri box. The 1)Thewayiam has beaten her twice but is was Andina Sel Sur first and second start against winners and Thewayiam also had an edge in condition. Now the edge in condition belongs to this one. I expect an improved race against these as she is entering her fourth race since she was in peak form. While I do not believe she can beat my top two choices, she has the bloodlines to be a factor. Her sire is Giant's Causeway and her broodmare sire is Singspiel, a son of BC Turf winner In The Wings(son of Sadler's Wells)and 1/2 brother to Rahy(sire of Giant's Causeway's dam). Singspiel also ran 2nd in the BC Turf in his only U.S. start after winning the G1 Canadian International in his only start in that country.
I actually like Chad Brown's other entry over the favorite at this distance but I also think it is a little further than either will do their best in.
9th Race: Alabama S(Grade 1)--- 3 YO Fillies--- 1 1/4 Miles--- Purse $600,000.
I am betting 1)Piedi Bianchi(15-1) to WP. Though I normally bet against Pletcher with 3 YOs and up after June of their 3 Yo season unless they drop significantly in class, I will bet this one because he had the horse for one start, so he hasn't had the time to screw up the horse yet. With her bloodlines and close finishes in thee G1s, she is worth taking a shot with. She has one start this year, a sprint, where she finished third almost 2 months ago. Her sire, Overanalyze, scored his e biggest graded stakes win at 1 1/8 mile and the only time he tried 1 1/4 miles was the Ky Derby, where he was sandwiched turning into the stretch while making a solid move. Her broodmare sire, Tactical Cat, scored his biggest win in the 1 1/16 mile G1 Hollywood Futurity at 2.
8)Talk Veuve To Me(5-2) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. She has the bloodlines to run as far as asked, especially on her dam's side. They will have to run her down and she is still improving. No Monomoy Girl in here that can go with her early.
My choice to complete my tri box will be 7)Coach Rocks(15-1). I believe they are sending her for the lead but would do better if they would let her rate and make one serious run in the stretch. Oxbow perform his best while on the lead but Coach Rocks female family was strictly distance oriented where most of them sat near the back of longer races and made a strong run in the stretch. If they chose to push her in this race, I think she has no shot to even hit the board, but if they let her relax, she could crash the exacta. She has proven she will rate on several occasions and those happen to be her best races.
I will add the 3)Midnight Bisou(7-5) and box a small super. She is the class of this field but now she is running a distance where bloodlines kicks in and her pedigree shows a lot of mid distance influences but very little classic distance influences. For this reason, I think she is beatable, especially at low odds which she will be.
10th Race: Claiming $25,000--- 3 YOs & Up--- 1 Mile Turf---- Purse $50,000'
I am betting the 6)Bitumen(12-1) to WP. This will be his first start on grass. However, his sire, Mineshaft, is a multiple G1 winner on dirt and he was Horse Of The Year as a 4 YO. His dam, Kobla Cat, is a 1/2 sister to Quality Road. Her sire, Tale Of The Cat, is sire of Gio Ponti, a multiple G1 winner on grass from 1 mile to 1 1/4 mile. Jose Ortiz has been named to ride him and while I am not familar with this horse's trainer, the horse has to many positive to ignore. Also, the trainer is removing the blinkers, apparently to get him to rate and to not be over anxious to go too early.
2)Italian Charm(7-2) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. He has ran third 4 times in six starts this year and now drops several levels in class, from an O/C $40000 to 25,000 claiming. He tends to rate a few lengths off the pace and the added weight should assure he will this time too.
7)Indebted(20-1) will be my choice to complete the tri. Throw out his last because he has ran on dirt twice in off the turf races and did nothing in both. Then if you look where his record states he has ran 3 times at this distance and won once, he really only ran once at the mile distance. The other 2 times were at 7 1/2 furlongs on grass, including breaking his maiden in his first lifetime start. The other was his 2nd start this year and he was in lrss than peak shape. His only race at a mile was at the Meadowlands where he drew the far outside which is exactly like drawing the rail in turf sprints at Saratoga. Not likely to happen. Now his bloodlines suggests one mile on grass will be his best distance. His sire, Malibu Moon's 1/2 brother, Temple City, was a graded stakes winner at 1 mile on grass and his best daughter, Miss Temple City , was a G1 winner at one mile. His broodmare sire, Silver Hawk, won 2 graded stakes at 7 furlongs in Europe. He is making his fifth start this year including both dirt races on a surface he despises and he will be huge odds., but an excellent spot play in this race. Maragh has taken the mount and was making a name for himself in 2014 when he got trampled while riding Wicked Strong and the horse clipped heels when Tonalist veered into his path in a move most believed was an intentional by that horse's jockey and severely injured Maragh. While his determination has led him this far back, he still is not where he was at that point.
These are my picks for Saratoga August 18. While I have not had the best of years handicapping, it is only a matter of time before I explode and get hot. May not be today but it will not be much longer. I feel I am handicapping as good as I ever have, but the luck has gone against me more times than not this year.

Dissection of the Artist: Wave Racer

Hello edmproduction, I'm back with another. Sorry if it took awhile, it's because I've been slacking lately. I've been extremely busy, and not quite sure if I was even going to make this guide. But I'm here now to try my best. This was posted almost week late, because said I would post it last Saturday but I procrasinated and well I sort of got lazy after that. But I did it now.
Today we are going to be looking at the artist Wave Racer. Wave Racer is associated with the label Future Classic, as well as the Electronic music scene in Australia. Wave Racer has also been likened to acts like Basenji, Tomggg, Lido, Cosmo's Midnight, Hoodboi, Sam Gellaitry, Lindsey Lowend, Machinedrum KRANE/KRNE, Cashmere Cat, Flume, Snakehips, Tkay Maidza, ODESZA and of course, Rustie. Wave Racer is known for the sound of "Dofflin" music which is a subgenre of Future Bass which is a subgenre of Trap which is a subgenre of Dirty South Hip Hop which is a subgenre of Hip Hop. I've also heard a lot of people label Wave Racer as Jersey Club, Future Beats or even Future RnB.
Disclaimer: I'm not really talented, and I'm not Wave Racer
This is my second guide after the Rustie one. I will correct any mistakes immediately. Alright let's just get into it then.
I'm trying something new this time. Only keeping each section to 6-8 paragraphs with a lot more structure. I also cited my sources. Very excited to post it so thank you.
[Midnight club beats mediafire, cylp.it chords, wave racer interviews]
Table of contents:

Biography and a quick Discography
Going Back to the Future Bass (a look at the genre of Future Bass)
Composition (voicing chords & chord extensions)
Production Techniques
Sample Packs + Wave Racer's own Samples
Artistic Impact + Afterword
Sources

Biography

Tom Purcell, or Wave Racer, is from Sydney, Australia. Purcell grew up in Sydney playing shows until some of the clubs were shut down due to the "lock out laws." He first got attention with his release of the single Stoopid/Rock U Tonite. In 2014, Wave Racer released Streamers which became the 9th most played track at Triple J.
There are a few things that most likely drew people to Wave Racer. Wave Racer's a e s t h e t i c seemed to be born out of Vaporwave. His music is nostalgic, because Wave Racer utilizes samples and composition methods reminiscent of 80s/90s RnB and Funk.
Secondly Wave Racer seemed to be carrying on the "Future" sound as his predecessors did before him. I'm going to be getting into the history of Future Bass in the next section, so bear with me.
Wave Racer went on to remix Panama's Always in 2014, and I think it's safe to say that Wave Racer's remix slaps. Wave Racer also remixed Stand Still by Flight Facilities, Don't be Shy by D-Cup. Plus a few other remixes I'm too lazy to name so I'll just leave this fantastic post here.
Wave Racer's 2015 EP Flash Drive, received Positive and a few mixed reviews. Many really liked Wave Racer's bubblegum trap and found it to be a more upbeat addition to club music. Others thought that the songs sounded very similar and that Wave Racer's sonic palette might have been getting old. Personally, I thought it was amazing.

What even is Future Bass anyways?

Future Bass is...many things. You can't always quite pinpoint it. You have the lighter, happier future bass like Wave Racer, Basenji and Lindsey Lowend (Windfish EP). You have the heavier, club based future bass like Ryan Hemsworth, Cashmere Cat and Vindata. You have the poppier sound that guys like Flume, Snakehips and Cosmo's Midnight are pushing. Of course we can't forget the "Chill Trap" subgenre (which I consider to be an offshoot of Future Bass and Trap) which includes ODESZA, Slow Magic, Mura Masa and XXYYXX. Remember when Porter Robinson was considered Future Bass? Good times, good times.
I think Future Bass was once considered to be a mix of Trap, Garage, Hip Hop, 90s R&B and Video Games. It was a blending of a 80s/90s aesthetic and forward thinking productions techniques taken from Trap and Hip Hop.
To understand Future Bass we need to go back. Back to 2008. Now, this might be a stretch, but I think Future Bass might have gathered influence from the Swedish electronic music genre known as Skweee. Daniel Savio called it skweee, because of the goal was to "squeeze out as many interesting sounds as possible." Looking back at Daniel Savio's debut 2003 album, Hudarna Från Söder you can see a few similarities with future bass.
Psychofox, There's Something Rotten In Sweden, and especially Please don't all sound kind of like Future Bass. But a darker, much more serious sound. There is a heavier Techno influence. The beats aren't overly complex, but instead rather sparse and minimal.
But that leads us to skweee artist Eero Johannes. With songs like We Could Be Skweeeroes and Polka Plok utilizing Trappy percussion and lush saw chords with funk elements.
I've devised this little timeline to show the progression of Future Bass (I've probably missed a lot of major players so I apologize)
2003: Daniel Savio released his debut album, Hudarna Från Söder, that seemed to embrace the up-and-coming genre of Skweee
2008: Eero Johannes released his self-titled album which took the Skweee sound and expanded upon it
2009: Hudson Mohawke releases Butter which helped HudMo gain more recognition and the interest major pop stars. (FUN FACT: "Fuse" was originally meant to be a song that Rihanna would sing over, but HudMo kept it as a song on Butter Source)
2011: Rustie releases Glass Swords which would then help inspire the Future R&B movement, and eventually Wave Racer.
2012: Flume's debut self-titled album (and Future Bass' rise in mainstream appeal)
2012: ODESZA releases Summer's Gone album (Chill trap vocal slicing's rise in mainstream appeal)
2012: Cashmere Cat releases Mirror Maru EP
2013: Ryan Hemsworth releases Guilt Trips and then releases the album, Alone For the First Time the next year.
2015: Wave Racer releases Flash Drive and it's really good.
2016: Flume's Skin album is released and the world explodes
2016: Lido's album, Everything, is released and it is the most amazing thing ever.

Composition

Wave Racer is known for all his cool chord progressions. Just listen to songs like Rock U Tonite, Flash Drive and his remix of Panama's Always.
So what does Wave Racer do to make his chords so magical?
Two things: Special chords and chord voicing. We're about to get into some music theory up in here so hold on.
Special chords are different from your normal triads. I call them special chords, because "extended chords" doesn't really work for all of them. These special chords include the 7th chord, 9th chord, 11th chord, 13th chord, Suspended chords, Power chords (although Power chords are more rare in EDM and less so in Metal and Rock) and a few others if you're feeling adventurous (Tristan chord, anyone?). 7th chords are chords that include a normal triad, and then another note that is seven scale degrees (IIRC) above the root note. So, take a C Major Chord.
A basic C major triad looks like this: C E G. Add in a 7th chord and it looks like this: C E G B. The B is seven scale degrees above the root note (C). If the B was one scale degree higher than it would be a full octave. Add a D to the CMaj7 (C Major 7th) chord and it becomes a 9th, because the higher D is nine scale degrees above. Add an F and it becomes a 11th chord, and add an A and it becomes a 13th chord. If you play the CMaj13 chord you will notice that there are 7 white notes, and all of those notes are notes within the scale of C Major. Now, this might not seem important until you realize that a CMaj13 chord includes all of the notes from the C Major scale (minus the C an octave up). These chords are versatile, and are typically more present in Jazz, Soul and R&B. Also, since Korean and Japanese Pop take inspiration from Western Jazz, you can find lots of 7ths and Suspended chords in K-Pop songs. Go to hooktheory and look up BoA or something, and you'll see that there is a VERY heavy jazz influence in modern K-Pop/J-Pop production.
IMPORTANT: There is a huge difference between a 9th/11th/13th chord and an add9/add11/add13 chord. A 9th chord is the inclusion of the original triad as well as the 7th and the 9th. An add9 chord leaves out the 7th (B) and only adds the 9th leaving you with (C E G A) instead of (C E G B A). Basically, an "add" chord is just the triad plus whatever note goes along with the 9th, 11th or 13th chord. I was confused by this for the longest time.
I mentioned Suspended chords, and I bet you're wondering what their deal is. Well, their deal is being used as a set up for a chord progression resolution. There are two types of suspended chords, Suspended 2nds and Suspended 4ths. Suspended 2nd chords replace the Major or Minor 3rd (the E in C E G) in the triad chord with a Major second. Suspended 4th chords replace the Major or Minor 3rd with a perfect fourth. Here is an example of them being used as a way to resolve a chord progression. The first chord played is a Csus2 (C suspended 2 which includes C D G) and the next chord played is a Csus4 (C suspended 4 which include CFG). Our hears hear that suspended chord, and it doesn't feel quite right. We almost want it to resolve. We want it to slip down to that C Major chord so the musical "tension" can be released.
And now we'll finally get into how Wave Racer utilizes chords. I looked up the hooktheory tabs for Flash Drive and Streamers (sorry I got kinda lazy). As you can see in this tabs Wave Racer is using a whole lot of Maj7, min7 and Suspended chords. If you click on the chords you can see their placements on the keyboard. You'll notice that they aren't all lined up neatly in a row. This is because of how Wave Racer "voices" the chord.
Voicing is when a composer rearranges the order of notes in a chord to vary the sound. Here is an example. The first three chords are variations on the C Major chord. The first one is just a basic C Major (C E G - with C being on the bottom), and after that I play C Major with the same notes but with E on the bottom. After that chord I play a C Major chord with the same notes, but with the G on the bottom. This is also called Chord inversions. Also, I included demonstrations of the special chords I talked about earlier.
Wave Racer certainly spreads out his chords among many octaves, and prefers to have notes leading into each other. Think of it this way, let's say you are playing a C Maj chord (C E G) and then you play a G Maj chord (G B D). There is a noticeable jump between the two chords since G Maj is played above C Maj regularly. But, if you invert the G Maj chord so that B is on the bottom, D is in the middle and G is on the top it sounds soooo much smoother. Example.
Something incredibly interesting about Wave Racer's song Flash Drive is that the first chord CMaj7 has its notes directly lead into the next chord, bm7. The notes in the CMaj7 chord hardly move at all. In fact you'll notice that almsot all of them move one half-step (or a minor 2nd) up or down to the notes right next to them in order to form the Bmin7 chord (B D F# A). The exception to this rule is the B which moves a Major 2nd down to A, since A# is between A and B which means that there is a 2 semitone difference. You'll also see that the F# is on the top of the bm7 chord, because it's only one half-step/semitone/minor 2nd away from the G in the CMaj7 chord. This creates a much smoother transition to the chords which is very similar in Jazz. Which you can notice in the song's C Jam Blues by Duke Ellington, Countdown by John Coltrane, Giant Steps by John Coltrane and Hatsukoi by Kojima Majumi. The notes in the chords rarely move beyond minor 2nds or Major 3rds, and when they do it is often to highlight the harmonic differences as well as the rising tension in music.
Even in Streamers there aren't giant leaps in terms of chord progressions. So, you'll want to really mess around with chord voicing, spreading chords around octaves, suspended chords and extensions.
Something absolutely GENIUS that is in Wave Racer's music is that his chord progressions don't always resolve. Remember how I mentioned earlier that we want to hear a CMaj chord after a Csus2/Csus4? Well, Wave Racer throws all that out the window and ends Streamer's chord progression on a suspended chord. This is an amazing tactic in that it draws in the listener, who is waiting for the chord to resolve. It creates intrigue, so that the chord progression doesn't feel "finished" and eventually when it does it becomes all the more satisfying. Try ending a few of your own chord progressions on suspended chords and see if it builds up any musical tension.
Wave Racer's melodies make great use of stepwise motion, which is the fancy musical term for a note moving up/down by only a minor 2nd or Major 2nd (up or down 1-2 notes). Stepwise motion is essential for pop hits, as slight movements in notes make for very simple catchy melodies. This isn't always the case though. "Somewhere Over the Rainbow" utilizes an octave jump as well as large skips in their melody. A skip is a musical term for when a note moves up/down by a minor 3rd or larger. Octave jumps full under the skip category. Wave Racer's melodies have stepwise motion, and skipping. Stepwise to give it a simple hook, and skipping to keep it interesting.
For chord progression rhythms you'll want to study Jazz. There are a lot of quick chord changes there. Triplets, chords being played for half a bar, chords changing after three bars and many other options exist. Most importantly is to stick to a consistent rhythm. Wave Racer doesn't change the chords too much rhytmically during a few of his songs. But it's important to find a rhythm that can be catchy and danceable (if you are wanting to make catchy, danceable music of course). You could also start chords in between beats, and not exactly on the first bar. If you have the Cthulu vst you can mess around with creating chords and rhythms very easily. Of course you can break chords up and play them in a rather quick fashion. Or you could punch holes in your blocked chords with sidechaining, LFO tool or some volume automation. I'd personally just copy the rhythms from Japanese Pop Music, Jazz and Alternative R&B. Chord progressions aren't copyrighted, so stealing them is fine (just don't steal the melody). If you want to make your own chord progressions, then you can just take the rhythms from these songs instead.
Tip that many other musicians have given: Study much more than Electronic music. Immerse yourself in as many genres as possible to learn all the different techniques. Jazz has so much to offer in terms of harmonic complexity and rhythm. Soul is the king of chord voicings, and Pop hits are the essense of the phrase "brevity is the soul of wit."
Wait! One more thing. Wave Racer and Basenji used to be apart of a Nu-Disco duo known as "Pablo J and the Lobsterettes." Which explains Wave Racer's 80s/90s Future J-Funk Nu-Disco House influence and a e s t h e t i c s.

Instruments (new section added)

Wave Racer uses a wide variety of synths, instruments and techniques to make the songs he does. In songs like Flash Drive he uses those wavey lush supersaw chords, square arps and slap basses. Whereas in Steamers he uses Dubstep snares, bell leads and trap vocal chants.
Here's just a quick list of instruments to try out:
Supersaws (preferably soft, lush and not too trance-like)
Arps (Square waves or bells)
High melodic leads (bells or portamento synths)
Slap basses
Kalimbas and marimbas
Harps and guitars
Flute sounding leads
The occasional bassline that is a kinda gritty 80s sounding bass
Trap and hip hop vocal chants (especially great if they are from recognizable memes like "catch me outside how out that")
R&B acapellas
Trap, Hip Hop and Dubstep drums
Small percussion samples like toms, woodblocks, sticks and rims.
Lots of hi-hats
Sampled drum breaks from 80s/90s R&B songs
(More additions): Make sure to give these instruments very distinct and clear sounds. Wave Racer arps sparkle, and his slap basses are rich and full. His kicks have enough punch to be noticed, but they aren't too overpowering. Sometimes subtle Kicks work really well.
The important thing to take away from this is that each element has its speciality highlighted. Bells sound twinkly and high while supersaws are lush and wide. Making these attributes more present means that each element in the mix not only has a specific purpose, but they have a distinctive sound.
Wave Racer is great at this. The high pitched vocal verses of Flash Drive are complimented by the slidy sounding pads and the short and sweet harmonized vocal melodies. His sound also has a certain swing to it. Elements don't always start on the first bat and continue for a specific amount of time. I'm not great at this, but Wave Racer is really letting his melody breathe. It's not continuing through every single bar. It's a subtle characteristic of his music. So maybe try writing melodies with short spaces in between them.

Sample Packs (+ Wave Racer's own samples)

Wave Racer used a clip from an Adventure Time episode in his song Stoopid
Wave Racer uses the whoop from Loleatta Holloway's song Crash Goes Love/) and the "what" from Rye Rye's Shake it to the ground in his song with Lido, World Record.
Also, fun fact: Many of the vocal samples from World Record are recordings of Lido Source
Wave Racer and Cosmo's Midnight sampled Rick James' Mary Jane/) in Introooo. Wave Racer also sampled Janet Jackson/) on Streamers (That "wooo!" chant in the background)
Also, Streamers utilizes a lot of Little John "What!" samples being pitched up and down.
Wave Racer's remix of Ghost Town DJ's "My Boo" includes a sample of the drum break from Lyn Collin's Think About It which comes in at 0:12 seconds in WV's remix.
Wave Racer also uses the water drop sample and the "bring it back" sample in multiple tracks. I don't know specifically where these are from, but I know that they are very popular samples in Jersey Club (and Baltimore club)
Speaking of Jersey Club, you can definitely see the influence that songs like Heartbroken - DJ Jayhood remix had on today's more modern Hoodboi/Dj Sliiink/Drippy Dolphin/Trippy Turtle/FOFOFADI type Jersey Club.
So, what samples should you use? Everything. Especially R&B acapellas (preferrably from a song that has achieved meme status). Grab a sample of Navi from Legend of Zelda or Pikachu's cry from Pokemon Yellow. Hell, if you really want to be unique record your Grandmother queefing and turn it into a squelchy bass.
For drums you'll want to find some Kicks that are kinda clicky and punchy, but not too clicky and punchy. On a scale of Flume to Ambient Drone you'll want to sidechain your Kicks moderately at Machinedrum level. Your snares should punch and snap, but not too punchy or snappy. Wave Racer uses a lot of trap sounding snares, with the ocassional dubsteppy sounding snare like in Streamers. In terms of drum placement: start with a basic trap beat, now add 10 different percussion loops. All jokes aisde, experiment with syncopation (percussion hits and notes not perfectly on beat - pefect example: Burial). Your syncopation game better be so on point that nobody is able to keep up with your music when dancing at a club.
Wave Racer's synth chords are those lush future bass supersaws (which I'm personally not that good at making), but try detuning multiple saw waves, play with cutoff filters and try manually slicing bounced audio of the chords. A lot of Wave Racer's leads sound very bell-like and his arps are square waves. I'd recommend VSTs like Serum, Massive, Synth1 and Sylenth1 for the chords (Wave Racer uses Sylenth1 himself). Then Synth1, TAL-U-No-62 or MiniMogueVa for the pads, basses and analog sounding synths. Although, in my opinion, it matters more that you nail down composition and the voicing of the chords. Build the synth around the melody and not the other way around (it's up to you. There is no wrong way to do things).
Oddly enough, Future Bass isn't really all that well...bassy. There's not a whole lot of that sub-shaking, club bursting, soul booming bass that's in most trap songs. That's different for guys like Mura Masa or KRNE who really want that subbass to be known to you.
There are a lot of melodic elements happening in Wave Racer's tracks. So many little oneshot samples, flourishes, short and sweet motifs and melodies. Probably smart EQing, timing and placement within the stereo field helps accomplish this (I'm not an expert so I can't give a very in-depth explanation)
And now...the sample pack recommendations
Splice Users [Pack provider - Pack]
Champagne Drip Sample Pack (eveything is very close to Wave Racer's style here)
SteLouse Sample Pack Vol. 1-2 (Kicks, Snares and FX)
Ekali Sample Pack Vol. 1-2 (Snares are especially Future Bass-y)
KRNE/KRANE Sample Pack Vol. 1-4 (drums are a bit heavier than Wave Racer's, but still great samples nonetheless)
Electric Mantis Sample Pack (Kicks, Snares, synths and vocals)
Decap Drums that Knock Vol. 1-3 (More Lofi Hip Hop oriented, but the snares are spot on)
Getter Sample Pack (Dubsteppy Snares will sound nice with some Reverb and Compression)
josh pan x Gill Chang - Childhood sample pack (Drums are very hard-hitting, but still recommended for the 808 subs, and the Slaps/Snares in the pack)
CAPSUN ProAudio - 4:20 The Smokers Kit (basic Trap drums, but some soft kicks and nice percussion loops to play with)
IQ Samples - 813 Hypercolor Bass (Kicks, Claps, Drum fills and chants.)
Medasin Microdose Vol. 1-3 (Kicks and Snares are perfect for Wave Racer's style)
Function Loops - Progressive PsyTrance (Kicks that are punchy and clicky similar to Wave Racer's or Machinedrums)
Xfer Drum Kit (Great all around drums. Somewhat basic sounds, but easy to find what you are looking for)
Loopmasters - Classic Synthology (synth oneshots)
CAPSUN ProAudio - Retro Stabs & Analogue Chords (amazing sounding chord oneshots)
Jaykode Classical Bass sample pack
CAPSUN ProAudio - Chill Trap and Future RnB (Snares, synths and oneshots)
Artisan Audio - Organic Deep House & Downtempo (Analog Kicks, Snares, Hats and Claps are 10/10. Recommended for those who like Machinedrum type drums)
CAPSUN Audio - LoFi Soul & Future Beats
Brasstracks - Brass Pack
Au5 Elemental Sample Pack
Tisoki Sonds Vol. 1
W.A. Production - Future Bass & Trap Ammo, Chained Future Bass, Flumed Future Bass, Hybrid Trap Crew and Future Bass Gang sample packs (all around great Future Bass samples)
W.A. Production - Redhead Roman Exclusive EDM
Rankin Audio - Jersey Club (very close to Lido and Cashmere Cat), Future Beats and R&B, Future Soul & Bass, Future Trip Hop, Future Bass Drum Hits, Fundamental Hip Hop Kits and Future R&B sample packs (pretty large assortment here)
Prime Loops - Future Bass Elements (Synths)
Aso Cozy Sounds Vol. 1 (Kicks and Snares)
Origin Sound - Fundamental Future Trap
CAPSUN ProAudio - Textures (Drums and oneshots)
CAPSUN ProAudio - Down Low Trap & Twerk (Snares)
Black Octopus - Organic Elements (percussion)
Non-Splice Users
Lush Waves Drum Kits
Gravez - Ascension Kit Vol. 1
ICYTWAT Vol. 2 Drum Kit
Candy Boy Phonk Kit
AAKHU Essentials Kit
Nodusk Future Waves, Nodusk Future Bass Drums, Nodusk Future Vocal Chopsand Nodusk Future Bass Movements
Noir Sound Drumkit Vol 1

Artistic Impact + Afterword

Wave Racer without a doubt is also responsible for Future Bass' meteoric rise in popularity. Rustie and HudMo were there first, but Wave Racer and Flume helped it become more accessible. Wave Racer's more "wavey, cutesy, 8-bit rainbow-y" style has certainly influenced a lot of artists (Snail's House, ABSRDST, Shawn Wasabi, Tomggg). I think Wave Racer's sound is a great blend of the nostalgic period of the 80s/90s with more modern production techniques and songwriting styles. He certainly is very good at balancing multiple melodic elements in a track. I'd say that Wave Racer is incredibly creative, and has built up a very distinctive and signature sound palette. He probably just followed his influences, and the music he makes now is where it took him. I'm excited for his future. His popularity means that more remixes, collaborations and EPs/Singles are on their way eventually. Who knows? We may have a Wave Racer album by 2019. Or maybe an official Wave Racer, Basenji collab under their current aliases. The possibilities are endless, and exciting.
Thanks for reading and I hope this helped some people out. It took quite a while to finish, and I didn't have as many technical facts as I had hoped. But overall I was able to delve deeper into the theory behind Wave Racer's music. Hope you enjoyed it! I appreciate any and all feedback.
God my left hand hurts.
Sources:
http://www.youredm.com/2015/10/14/your-edm-interview-with-wave-racer-on-his-new-ep/
http://sweaty320.com/2015/06/review-interview-wave-racer-westword-music-showcase.html
http://www.mymusicisbetterthanyours.com/2015/08/wave-racer-our-interview-with-the-future-bass-star-and-ticket-contest-for-san-francisco/
https://gwradiomusic.wordpress.com/2014/03/27/an-interview-with-wave-race
http://www.complex.com/music/2014/03/wave-racer-interview
https://www.scenewave.com/2014/02/interview-wave-race
http://runthetrap.com/2014/11/13/rtt-exclusive-interview-surfing-world-wave-race
http://www.whosampled.com/
https://www.hooktheory.com/
https://www.ultimate-guitar.com/
http://www.thejazzresource.com/jazz_theory.html
http://www.jazzstandards.com/theory/overview.htm

Are you betting on Eurovision this year? Don't follow the bookmaker's suggestions because they are always wrong.

My Pedigree Thoughts-- Most Of What I Have Mentioned Can Be Found Online But Takes Hours To Research.

I will give you my opinion of every horse's pedigree that looks to be pointing to this year's derby. but I will let each of you make the final decision of who you want to risk money on. Most of my thoughts will be dead on but there are instances where I may overlook a sire but more likely it will be the dam I tend to overlook.
Bolt D'Oro is first up. His sire was Medaglia d'Oro, a son of El Prado. Medaglia d'Oro only G1 win at 1 1/4 mile was the Travers S where he ran the last 1/2 mile in 51 flat and was all out to hang on beating the only other graded stakes winner in the field, Repent, whose biggest win was the G2 La Derby, ran that year at 1 1/16 miles. But he also ran second in two editions of the BC Classic, Belmont S(finishing the last half in 53 2/5), and the Pacific Classic(to Candy Ride when he set the track record that he still holds in 1:59 flat). His best runners were at their best up to 1 1/8 miles, though his only runner to win at 1 1/4 mile was Songbird, who did it twice, in 203 flat and 204 flat, both on fast tracks and finishing times that are respectable for fillies but a little slow for the best colts. Bolt D'Oro dam, Globe Trot, won three times in 17 starts, all at 1 mile but no stakes wins. But her sire is A.P. Indy, giving Bolt all the distance pedigree he will need. While I would not be surprised if he won, his trainer will face pressure during derby week that he has never experienced before. It is the downfall of many, especially the first time. The more I watch his races makes me believe the trainer will try to get him on the lead, and I think he is beatable if the trainer succeeds.
Enticed is another son of Medaglia D'Oro(see above). His dam is It's Tricky, a multiple G1 winning filly up to 1 1/8 mile. However, the only time she tried 1 1/4 mile, she ran 2nd to Royal Delta, a champion 3 YO & 4 YO filly. She just recently died from foaling complications producing a Pioneerof The Nile colt, who also died. Her other foal was a year older full sister to Enticed and retired without racing to preserved the bloodlines. It's Tricky sire, Mineshaft, is a son of A.P. Indy who was Horse Of The Year in 2003 and winning at 1 1/4 mile twice in 2 attempts, the Jockey Club Gold Cup in 2:00 1/5 and the Suburban on 201 3/5, beating Volponi in the latter, pulling away at the end. His best sons were Effinex, a G1 winner at 1 1/4 mile and Dialed In, beaten favorite in the 2011 Ky Derby. Enticed trainer, Kiaran McLaughlin has experienced the pressure of derby week several times, including a 2nd in the 2005 Ky Derby with Closing Argument at 80-1, and two 4ths with Frosted and Mohaymen, both sons of Tapit. As of now, Enticed is my pick to win this year's derby and will most likely be the one I will end up betting. Knowing McLaughlin, I believe he will ask the jockey to rate this horse and make a move turning for home.
Bravazo is a son of Awesome Again, who was Horse Of The Year in 1998 when he won the BC Classic against probably the best field top to bottom ever assembled for that race, including Silver Charm, Swain, Victory Gallop and Skip Away, all multiple G1 SWs up to 1 1/2 miles. Awesome Again is a top sire and his best son, Ghostzapper, also won the G1 BC Classic on his way to Horse Of The Year in 2004. Bravazo's dam, Tiz O' Gold, is bred on the exact same lines as Tiznow but her broodmare sire, Slew O' Gold was Seattle Slew's most accomplished runner on the race track, winning the older horse TC at 4 YO after narrowing missing sweeping it as a 3 YO. While Bravazo is bred to handle 1 1/4 miles, he will need to run faster than he has thus far to be a factor against G1 competition. A likely pace setter.
Promises Fulfilled is a son of Shackleford, who ran 4th in the Ky Derby after setting the pace and then won the Preakness S, beating Animal Kingdom. His dam, Marquee Delivery, was graded stakes placed at 1 mile and 1 1/8 miles. His broodmare sire, Marquetry, won the 1 1/4 mile Hollywood Gold Cup, just lasting and beating a career G3 winner but was trounced in at least a half dozen other attempts at 1 1/4 mile, including twice more each in the Gold Cup and BC Classic. If Promises Fulfilled gets a slow pace is the only way, he will be a factor in the Ky Derby and I personally do not see that as possible. I will definitely make this one beat me.
Magnum Moon is a son of Malibu Moon, who sire Ky Derby winner Orb, a horse Magnum Moon is similar bred like. Orb's broodmare sire was Unbridled and Magnum Moon's broodmare sire is Unbridled's Song. However, there is a major difference in their female lines that could prevent Magnum Moon from getting the 1 1/4 mile distance. Unbridled's broodmare sire, Le Fabuleux, is a son of Wild Risk, a great grandson of St Simon and himself the broodmare sire of Blushing Groom(broodmare sire of Awesome Again). In Unbridled's female family under Le Fabuleux, his dams traces to Man O' War twice and more important, to La Troienne twice. Unbridled's Song was super fast and the beaten favorite in the 1996 Ky Derby when 4th to another Unbridled's son, Grindstone. Unbridled's Song broodmare sire was Caro, whose best sons were better on grass than dirt. However, Caro's daughter, Winning Colors, won the Ky Derby in 1988, mostly because the trainers of that derby gave her no respect and she got to run all alone throughout and lasted. Unbridled's Song initially was better at siring sprinters/ milers types when he first started breeding, but his progeny started getting more distance as he aged. Underneath in Magnum Moon pedigree is Giant's Causeway whose broodmare sire is Rahy, a son of Blushing Groom. So before I can dismiss this horse, I will want to see how he fares in the Arkansas Derby. Pletcher has screwed up on several top 3 YOs just before the derby and this could possibly be another one. The Apollo curse(unraced as a 2 YO) will eventually be broken and this one has the bloodlines to do it, especially with his slightly off the pace style of running.
Quip is a son of Distorted Humor, who was better as a sprinter during his racing career. He was the sire of Ky Derby and Preakness winner, Funny Cide, but Funny Cide's broodmare sire(Slewacide) had more to do with that than him. Distorted Humor can produce a distance runner but usually when he gets a lot of help from the dam. And that is not the case with Quip. Starting with his broodmare sire, Indian Charlie, his female family is loaded with sprint/miler type runners and producers. Definitely one I will not consider.
McKinzie is a son of Ky Derby winner Street Sense. However, he has the running style that resembles his broodmare sire Petionville, a son of Seeking The Gold, who found 1 1/8 miles to be his limit. Mckinzie's running style is the preferred style Baffert now tries to teach all his horses to use but I believe he would be much more dangerous if allowed to sit mid pack and make one big run. But Baffert has been burned twice using that type of tactics on favorite type horses and I do not see him changing what has worked for him 4 different times versus none(due to misjudged rides mostly). So I will try to beat this one.
Good Magic is a son of Curlin, who ran third in the Ky Derby in his 4th lifetime start, then won the Preakness and ran 2nd in the Belmont S on his way to the 3 YO Champion. He was Horse Of The Year at 4 in 2008. Good Magic's broodmare sire is Hard Spun, who beat Curlin when 2nd in the 2007 Ky Derby behind Street Sense, then ran 3rd in the Preakness and 4th in the Belmont before finishing 2nd in the BC Classic in the slop against Curlin. Hard Spun's sire was Danzig, who mostly known for siring milers but his broodmare sire was Turkoman, a son of Alydar, who was Champion Older Horse after maturing as a 4 YO. However he ran 2nd in the Travers S and 3rd in the BC Classic as a 3 YO, so he showed he preferred distance. There will be no one in this year derby that is better bred to handle a distance than Good Magic. And with Chad Brown(who learned under Bobby Frankel) as his trainer, it will be hard to bet against this one. Only downfall might be two races before the derby but Brown has proven he knows how to get them fit quickly.
Solomini is another son of Curlin(see above). His broodmare sire is Storm Cat. However, Solomini's dam, Surf Song, is an unraced 1/2 sister to Frosted but with one noted difference. She is inbred 5x5 to ultra stamina influence Princequillo. When a horse is inbred, they will often turn out closely resembling the inbred horse. She has five foals to race and Solomini is her first graded placed foal. Early in his career, Princequillo flashed speed but was unable to win often until he was claimed for $2500 and tried at distances of 1 1/4 mile and up. He set the 1 3/4 mile track record at Saratoga in 1943 as a 3 YO and was brought by Arthur "Bull" Hancock for breeding purposes. Baffert announced before the Rebel, that he would have to find another spot for Solomini because he was going to run Justify in the Arkansas Derby. Maybe worth a wager in the exacta or trifecta, but only if he gets little or no respect at the betting windows. I still believe he represents Baffert's best shot at another derby win.
Flameaway is a son of Scat Daddy, who probably is best up to 1 1/8 miles on dirt. He is better bred for grass and that is why most of his foals perform better on that surface. Flameaway's broodmare sire is Fusaichi Pegasus, winner of the 2000 Ky Derby and Mr Prospector's only son to win at 1 1/4 mile or further in a G1 race on a fast track. The only other time he raced at 1 1/4 miles was the BC Classic that year and he was no factor against Tiznow & Giant's Causeway. I see Flameaway as a pace factor only and there are quite a few I like better.
Firenze Fire is a son of Poseidon's Warrior, who did not win a stakes race past 6 furlongs. However, Poseidon's Warrior broodmare sire is Smarten who also is broodmare sire of Smart Strike. Smarten won 4 derbies as a 3 YO and ran 2nd in the Travers S and the Arkansas Derby. Firenze Fire's broodmare sire is Langfuhr, the best siring dirt son of Danzig. Langfuhr is the sire of Wando who won Canada's TC(restricted to Canadian breds) but got crushed when he raced against America's best and Lawyer Ron, who won the Arkansas Derby and several other G1 up to 1 1/8 miles. Firenze Fire has a sneaky good pedigree especially on his dam side and that makes him a possible for an underneath slot but think him winning is probably a little far fetch. He is one I will probably make beat me because I like several others more.
Free Drop Billy is a son of Union Rags, who won the 2012 Belmont S and whose only off the board finish in his career came in the Ky Derby when he got sandwiched at the start, squeezed back and had to take up but then closed with a rush to finish 7th, making up more than a dozen lengths. Free Drop Billy's broodmare sire is Giant's Causeway who has been a top runner and sire throughout his life. He has the pedigree to burn none believers and it will mostly be the type of trip he gets that determines the final outcome. While I am leaning against betting him to win, he is one I will have to consider underneath.
Snapper Sinclair is a son of City Zip, who was a solid sprinter during his racing career. I bet a lot of his horses at under a mile on dirt and usually up to a mile on grass. However, we are talking about 1 1/4 mile on dirt here and there is no way I can even consider that. Snapper Sinclair's broodmare sire is Yes It's True, another confirmed sprinter who was at his best up to 7 furlongs. And while he has a little help from other parts of his pedigree, the fact he has 2 sprinters in the 2 most important spot of his pedigree makes him a do not include in any bets for me. Pass.
Combatant is a son of Scat Daddy, who as I mentioned earlier was at his best up to 1 1/8 miles on dirt but his best runners are better on grass. Combatant's broodmare sire is Boundary, who also was a sprinter during his racing career. Boundary did sire Ky Derby and Preakness winner, Big Brown, but it was discovered after the Preakness that he was receiving monthly steroids shots, which has always been illegal in all horse racing jurisdictions because it can mask more potent drugs. When confronted, the trainer admitted to administering the steroids, leading to a 10 year to lifetime ban on the trainer. That said, Combatant does have a nice pedigree underneath that makes it hard to dismiss him. Forty Niner ran 2nd in the 1988 Ky Derby to Winning Colors and is Mr Prospector's best siring son. Combatant's dam is also inbred 3x4 to Northern Dancer and 5x5 to Native Dancer. Also, Slew O' Gold can be found on the dam side. If you like this horse, you can be sure you will get some solid odds on derby day, especially if he runs close but finishes 2nd or 3rd in his last prep. Have not yet toss him myself, waiting to see how the derby sets up.
Blended Citizen is a son of Proud Citizen, who ran 2nd in the 2002 Ky Derby and 3rd in the Preakness, beating Medaglia D'Oro. Proud Citizen is one of only a few sires that has sired 2 Ky Oaks winners, Proud Spell and Believe You Can. Proud Citizen's son, Went The Day Well, lagged near the back of the pack in the 2012 Ky Derby but was closing fastest of all at the end to finish 4th, beaten 2 1/2 lengths, making up 8 lengths in the stretch alone against I'll Have Another and Bodemeister. Proud Citizen's third dam, Arctic Dancer, is a full sister to Northern Dancer. Blended Citizen's broodmare sire, Langfuhr, was arguably Danzig's best producing son on dirt but was also a solid sire on grass. While he was a sprintemiler during his racing career including winning the G1 Metropolitan Mile, several of his foals stretched their speed up to 1 1/8 mile on dirt. With three crosses of Nearctic in his 5th generation and two crosses of Natalma(Mahmoud's grand daughter who was dam of Northern Dancer & Arctic Dancer), Blended Citizen is bred very similar to Danehill, sire of 348 SWs(most all time by one sire). However, Danehill won two sprint stakes on grass during his racing career and most of his foals were also best at sprinting up to a mile on grass. While I feel Blended Citizen best surface will be the all weather tracks and grass, there is little in his pedigree that suggest he can not perform well at 1 1/4 mile on dirt. However, he will have to run a race he has not proven capable of yet to be a factor but has the look of one that could finish in the lower have of the exotics, keying a monstrous payoff.
Strike Power is a son of Speightstown, a very fast sprinter during his racing career that Pletcher was forced to stop on twice during his racing career due to major injuries, once for almost 2 years. Speightstown still owns Saratoga track record for 6 furlongs in 108 flat and he won the BC Sprint, also in 108 flat, in the last start of his career as a 6 YO. Strike Power's dam, Gold D'Oro, won at 1 1/4 mile on grass in allowance company and showed she preferred distances of 1 1/8 miles to 1 1/4 miles on grass. Her sire is Medaglia D'Oro and she has a rare cross of 3/4 brothers Sadler's Wells and Nureyev, both top sires on grass at distances. Gold D'Oro's dam line traces back into 1941 TC winner Whirlaway. However his pedigree is tilted too much towards speed on dirt for my liking and he will be one I will leave out of my bets.
Old Time Revival is a son of Brethren, a 1/2 brother to 2010 Ky Derby winner Super Saver. Their dam, Supercharger, is a full sister to She's A Winner, dam of 2006 Ky Derby & Belmont S seconds, Blue Grass Cat. Brethren, also trained by Pletcher, won his first 3 starts including the G3 Sam F Davis S before running third in the Tampa Bay Derby and 11th in the Arkansas Derby, effectively knocking him out of the TC consideration. Brethren dam line is also the dam line of California Chrome's broodmare sire, Not For Love. However, Brethren's early career mirrors that of this year derby hopeful, Magnum Moon. Old Time Revival's broodmare sire is Congaree, who ran third in the 2001 Ky Derby after contesting the fastest pace in Ky Derby long history. Congaree would win the Hollywood Gold Cup at 1 1/4 miles and run 2nd in the SA Handicap as a 4 YO. His broodmare sire Mari's Book, a son of Northern Dancer, was also broodmare sire of Ashado, champion 3 YO filly and Champion Older filly as a 4 YO. While Old Time Revival has some more stamina influences in his dam family, he seems to prefer setting the pace and that will probably be his downfall against this type of horses. Another I will not consider, myself.
Instilled Regard is a son of Arch, who won the G1 Super Derby at 1 1/4 miles, beating a G3 quality field at best. Here is a sire that I disagree with the pedigree experts assessment on his distance abilities. The experts thinks he is a 1 1/4 mile sire but his progency says otherwise. True, he is sire of BC Classic winner, Blame but Blame's female family produced Sadler's Wells and his full brother Fairly Bridge, and Nureyev, along with dozens of others who displayed distance capabilities. Outside of Blame, Arch's other foals was good up to 1 1/8 miles but none lasted the 1 1/4 miles distance. However, his sire line is one of the best stamina influences but Arch's dam line was simply middle distance horses at best. Instilled Regard's broodmare sire is Forestry, a son of Storm Cat but who sports the same dam line as Mr Prospector, just a few generations later. This dam line was also at their best up to 1 1/8 miles and struggled at any distances past that point. However, Instilled Regard's second dam, Heavenly Prize, won 9 of 18 starts including several at 1 1/4 miles and never finished worse than third, including a solid third to Cigar while he was in the middle of his 16 straight winning streak. The Risen Star S is a toss for this horse and every other horse than ran in that race as no horse passed more than one horse throughout that race. While it is common to see no moves in a 4 or 5 horse field, it has to be at least 1 in 10,000 to see none in a 8 or more horse fields. So I am going to wait to see what he does in the Santa Anita Derby before I will be willing to totally exclude him from consideration.
Catholic Boy is a son of More Than Ready, who ran 4th in the 2000 Ky Derby. However, he never won past 7 furlongs in his racing career, though he ran 2nd in the Blue Grass S on Keeneland's notorious speed favoring track and 2nd in the Louisiana Derby against horse than proved to be a cut below the better horses of that year. As a sire, More Than Ready's foals has always been high class sprinters/milers, especially on grass but none has won at 1 1/4 mile on either surface. The only son I found of his that won at 1 1/8 miles on dirt was Verrazano, who won both the Wood Memorial and Haskell Inv as a 3 YO in blowouts. But he did not finish anywhere near the money in 3 tries at 1 1/4 miles. Catholic Boy's broodmare sire, Bernardini, won the Travers S and the Jockey Club Gold Cup at 1 1/4 mile as a 3 YO before running 2nd in the BC Classic. However, his best distance son, Stay Thirsty, had no problem handling 1 1/4 miles but his broodmare sire, Storm Bird, had a lot of influence in that. His 2nd best son, To Honour And Serve, won several G1s at 1 1/8 miles but was not close in two tries at 1 1/4 miles. So while I will not say Catholic Boy can not win(because anything can happen during a race), my money will be going on others that has family that succeeded at 1 1/4 miles or further.
Avery Island is injured and off the derby trail.
My Boy Jack is a son of Creative Cause, who finished 5th in the 2012 Ky Derby after making a strong move before hitting the invisible proverbial brick wall at the 1/8 pole. Creative Cause's sire, Giant's Causeway, had no problem with the 1 1/4 miles distance but his dam, Dream Of Summer, limit was 1 1/8 miles but she was even better at up to a mile. Her sire line is the same as Uncle Mo and this sire line is much more dangerous on grass. My Boy Jack's broodmare sire, Mineshaft, was Horse Of The Year at 4 YO and won both of his attempts at 1 1/4 miles. And believe it or not, he is the only son of A.P. Indy out of a Mr Prospector mare to win a G1 race at 1 1/4 miles. My Boy Jack's dam was unraced but is bred to another daughter out of a Mr Prospector's son. And for this reason, I will be looking elsewhere.
Greyvitos is a son of Malibu Moon, who broke his maiden in his first start and then got injured in his second start while finishing second. Malibu Moon sired 2013 Ky Derby winner, Orb, who won in a muddy edition of the derby like his pedigree suggested he should and never came even close to reproducing that form at the 1 1/4 mile distance. Malibu Moon's best foals are solid at 1 1/8 miles but rarely wants to go any more route of ground. Greyvitos was last seen winning the Remington Springboard Mile in December and had surgery to remove bone chips from his knees after that race. He has yet to make his 3 YO debut, but is now back in training. Greyvitos's broodmare sire is Najran, who won up to a mile and actually tied Dr Fager's world record of 132 1/5 for a mile on dirt in the G3 Westchester H. His best two runners were fillies, including Greyvitos's dam, and both were solid up to 1 1/8 mile on grass. His dam also has some distance influence in her family tree. However, I can not believe any horse will be able to beat the best off one prep at 1 1/4 mile and will have to pass, especially with his pedigree.
Audible is a son of Into Mischief, who won the 1 1/16 mile CashCall Futurity on Hollywood Park's all weather track in a fast time. Into Mischief is a 1/2 brother to Beholder, who won the Pacific Classic at 1 1/4 mile as a 5 YO against horses better suited for shorter distances and then ran 2nd to California Chrome in the same race as a 6 YO. Beholder two races outside of California was better than most perceived as she ran 2nd in the Ky Oaks, beaten a 1/2 length by Princess Of Sylmar and then 4th, beaten 1 length by that rival in the Ogden Phipps H. However, true to her pedigree, she performed her best at 1 1/16 miles and 1 1/8 miles against the best of her class. Audible's broodmare sire, Gilded Time, won the BC Juvenile Dirt as a 2 YO and was injured shortly thereafter and missed the derby. He returned in the BC Sprint after a year layoff and ran third, beaten 3/4 of a length. However, his pedigree suggested he would struggle at a 1 1/4 mile. In fact, his best son, Gayego, won the G1 Arkansas Derby at 1 1/8 miles and ran near the back in both the Ky Derby & Preakness S, fading badly both times. So there is no way I will consider betting this horse under any circumstances. I have never made money betting this type and rarely does this type beat my horse. Pass.
The Tabulator and Paved, a filly, are not nominated to the derby. The Tabulator has good breeding but has been sent towards the lead in each of his starts and I will not consider him mostly for that reason and the expected pace battle that is shaping up along with being inactive this year. Paved, a filly, will prove she belongs on the grass and/or all weather tracks against her own kind. She beat a less than stellar field in the El Camino Real Derby.
Kanthara is a son of Jimmy Creed, who won the G1 Malibu S at 7 furlongs. His sire was Distorted Humor and his dam, Hookedonthefeelin, only added to his sprinting ability. Kanthara's broodmare sire, Noonmark, was a son of Unbridled's Song, whose best races were as an off the pace sprinter that did not run on as the distance stretch out slightly. So I will take a pass on this one as I simply do not see enough stamina influences to help him.
World Of Trouble is a son of Kantharos, who won his only 3 starts, including the G2 Saratoga Special in the mud. Kantharos's sire, Lion Heart, ran 2nd in the 2004 Ky Derby to Smarty Jones, also in the mud. World Of Trouble's broodmare sire, Valid Expectations was a confirmed sprinter whose biggest win came in the G3 1 mile Derby Trial S. He tried G1 competition twice and was crushed on both occasions. Simply does not have enough pedigree for my liking. Pass.
Lombo is a son of Graydar, a G1 winning son of Unbridled's Song who won 5 of his 6 lifetime starts, including the Donn H and New Orleans H, defeating G1 winners Flat Out, Take Charge Indy, and Bourbon Courage in the Donn H at 1 1/8 miles in wire to wire fashion. He concluded his career by winning the G2 Kelso H at a mile in 1:34 flat. Lombo is from Graydar's first crop. Lombo's broodmare sire, Johannesburg, went unbeaten in 7 starts as a 2 Yo, including beating a solid field in the G1 BC Dirt Juvenile handily after winning Europe's biggest 2 YO races in his first 6 starts. In his first crop, he sired Scat Daddy, who won the G1 Champagne at 1 mile and G1 Florida Derby at 1 1/8 miles. Lombo is another who would benefit from a slow pace but I really think he is overmatched against these. Pass.
Noble Indy is a son of Take Charge Indy, who won the G1 Florida Derby at 1 1/8 miles. In his only try at the 1 1/4 distance, he finished 19th of 20th beaten 50 lengths by I'll Have Another. Take Charge Indy is a 1/2 brother to Will Take Charge, champion 3 YO of 2013. Noble Indy's dam, Noble Maz, won a couple of turf sprints restricted to Pennsylvania Bred, Her sire, Storm Boot, did his best running in turf sprints also, though he did not win a stakes race. Storm Boot's best son, Delta Storm also spent his career on all weather tracks and grass in Southern California but won only 2 small stakes, both at 6 furlongs. While I am willing to throw his Risen Star race out, I still do not see him being a factor at 1 1/4 mile. Pass.
Pony Up is a son of Aikenite, a son of Yes It's True whose top effort was a 2nd in the G1 Breeders' Futurity at 1 1/16 miles on Keeneland's all weather track. When tried on dirt, he was beaten soundly a number of times in mid distances and his only win in a dirt stakes came in the G2 CD Handicap at 7 furlongs. Pony Up's dam, A.P. Petal, is an unraced daughter of A.P. Indy bred with a Mr Prospector daughter that produced many good foals but for the most part with distance limitations. However, Pony Up is in bred 4x4 to Secretariat and crosses with Bold Ruler three times in his 5th generation. Throw in Secretariat's 1/2 brother, Sir Gaylord, as the sire of his fourth dam and you have a horse that will probably run all day. His Holy Bull race is better than it looks on paper and this is the Pletcher horse that most likely will be live on derby day. Definitely one I will keep an eye on and will be a part of my final decision.
Vino Rosso is a son of Curlin, champion 3 YO of 2007 and Horse of the Year in 2008. His broodmare sire is Street Cry, sire of both Street Sense and Zenyatta, both confirmed late runners. Street Cry, as a runner, was sent to the lead and set blistering paces throughout his career, but often tired late. He was a classic example of a horse who was asked to run early but probably would have been better as a late type runner. I say this because his female family was loaded with European champions and most of them did their best running late. His Tampa Derby Derby run was not a good indication of his running ability as the pace was crawling, at best, and Velasquez tried to keep him close to have a chance and he did not respond mostly because he had nothing to run at. While I like others better, I know he could surprise with a pace to run at like he will get in the Ky Derby, if Pletcher decides to push forward. Not likely, though.
Tiz Mischief is a son of Into Mischief, who won the G1 CashCall Futurity on Hollywood Park all weather track and is a 1/2 brother to Beholder. His broodmare sire, Tiznow, won back to back BC Classic in 2000 and 2001 at 1 1/4 miles. Like his pedigree or not, he has six full brothers and sisters that either placed or won in G1 races at 1 1/4 miles or produced at least one runner that won in G1 races at a classic distance. His full brother, Budroyale, ran 2nd in the 1999 BC Classic after running 2nd in the 1999 Hollywood Gold Cup and adding a second in the 2000 Santa Anita H, all at 1 1/4 miles. Tiz Mischief has been posting fast works since his first work and everything will eventually click. Whether that will be before the derby or in the derby remains to be seen. The Tampa Bay Derby ran in a similar fashion to this year's Risen Star S and horses exiting both of these should be on everyone's list to watch out for. After looking back at the Tampa Bay Derby, I now realized the outcome was the results of very slow paces in both races. That said, I still am on the fence with this horse because he has yet to run to his works. Hoping to see one more race before the derby from him and knowing Romans, it probably will be the Blue Grass S.
Hollywood Star is a son of Malibu Moon, sire of 2013 Ky Derby winner Orb on a muddy track. Hollywood Star's dam, Hollywood Story, ran 4th in the 2003 BC Juvenile Fillies against Halfbridled for the third graded stakes in a row against that rival and Ashado as a maiden and came back to win the G1 Hollywood Starlet in her next start. She ended her career winning 4 graded stakes, including the G1 Vanity H at 1 1/8 mile. Her sire was Wild Rush, who won the Illinois Derby at 1 1/8 mile but his biggest win came in the G1 Metropolitan Mile H. Hollywood Story's broodmare sire was Dynaformer, best known as sire of Ky Derby winner Barbaro but also sire of Point Of Entry, a champion turf distance son. Hollywood Star is another trainee of Romans and is probably the best bred son for distance of Malibu Moon this year. However, he has only been seen once this year and that inconsistent makes me wonder if Romans is up to something with this horse. He has been talking about both Tiz Mischief and Free Drop Billy a lot, but has not mentioned this horse. But if you look at the works of each, this one is working faster than his other horses.
Ayacara is a son of Violence, a son of Medaglia D'Oro and winner of 3 races in 4 lifetime starts, including the G1 CashCall Futurity on Hollywood Park's all weather track. He fracture a sesamoid bone while finishing 2nd in the Fountain Of Youth and was retired. Violence third dam, Sky Beauty, won the U.S. TC for fillies while winning 15 of 21 lifetime races. His broodmare sire, Pulpit, is the sire of Tapit and grand sire of 2014 Ky Derby & Preakness winner California Chrome. Ayacara has yet to display any resemblance to his pedigree and looks like a fringe player, at best. Not for me until noted improvement is shown. Pass.
Sporting Chance is a son of Tiznow, winner of two BC Classic at 1 1/4 mile. His dam, Wynning Ride, won the Iowa Distaff for her only stakes win, but she ran 2nd in the G1 Hollywood Starlet S on Hollywood's all weather track and third in the G1 CCA Oaks at 1 1/4 mile. Her sire is Candy Ride, unbeaten in 6 lifetime starts, including the G1 Pacific Classic where he broke the track record in 1:59.11 and still owns it today. His pedigree on his dam side is tilted heavily towards speed and is one I will try to beat. However, Lukas will do his best to have him ready but I still believe it looks like a fast pace is setting up in this year's derby.
Givemeaminit is a son of Star Guitar, who won 24 of 30 lifetime starts, mostly races restricted to Louisiana Breds. His sire is Quiet American, sire of 1997 Ky Derby & Preakness winner Real Quiet, Cara Rafaela(dam of Bernardini) and Quiet Dance(dam of Horse Of The Year Saint Liam and 2nd dam of Gun Runner). Givemeaminit's broodmare sire is Turkoman, a son of Alydar out of a mare by Round Table's son Table Play and U.S. Horse Of The Year in 1986. Sire of Givemeaminit's second dam is Pleasant Colony, winner of the 1981 Ky Derby & Preakness and third in the Belmont S. Sire of his third dam is Illustrious, another son of Round Table from 1926 Belmont S winner Chance Play, a closer relative of Man O' War including the same sire. I absolutely love his pedigree and he will be my bet to win the Ky Derby if he qualifies in this weekend's Louisiana Derby. I have him to win in the first future book at 70-1 and would have placed more on him to win in the next 2 futures if they had not moved him to the field. Instead, I used Enticed in the second future book to win and got 62-1. Either one wins and I will kick back for months.
Justify is a son of Scat Daddy, who won the 1 1/8 mile Florida Derby in 2007. Scat Daddy's best foals ran better on grass than dirt, however. Scat Daddy's best performing horse on dirt looks to be Frac Daddy, who ran second in the 2013 Arkansas Derby before finishing 16th in the Ky Derby. El Kabeir won 2 G3 New York preps in the 1 1/16 mile Gotham S and 1M 70Y Jerome s. He ran 3rd in the Wood Memorial and scratched from the Ky Derby on the morning of that race. He would never hit the board again in a graded stakes. Daddy Nose Best won the G3 Sunland Derby for his only graded stakes win on dirt before running 10th in the Ky Derby and 9th in the Preakness. Scat Daddy's son Daddy Long Legs won the UAE Derby at 1 3/16 mile on their then all weather track before finishing last in the 2012 Ky Derby. His only other start on dirt, he finished last in the BC Juvenile Dirt the previous year. Justify's dam, Stage Magic, finished third in the G3 Gardenia S at 1 mile after battling the pace and tiring to finish 6 3/4 lengths behind Groupie Doll. She also finished third in the Pippen S at 1 1/16 mile, again tiring late. Justify's second dam was the G1 placed Magical Illusion. Her G1 placing came in the CCA Oaks after battling Ashado for the lead and stopping cold at the mile pole in the 1 1/4 mile test to finish 3rd beaten 12 lengths. Justify's broodmare sire, Ghostzapper, is a 1/2 brother to City Zip but he won the BC Classic at 1 1/4 mile after setting a slow pace for a G1 race and sprinting home in 47 4/5 seconds at Lone Star Park, a track known for sub 46 splits for distance races. Most of his foals performs better under a mile, like City Zip but he has some that performed well in distance too, unlike City Zip. Which one will Justify be? Only time will tell but I will make him prove to me that he can do what his bloodlines says he can not do against G1 competition.
These are the known runners that is still pointing for the derby. There are several good ones that will fly under the radar and you will get good odds. There are several others that will be overbet and ripe to take a stance against. But the final decision will be yours whether you want to try to make a little or make a lot with just a few dollars risked. I personally normally bet a lot(for me) but as always, will only include the few horses I think will have the best chance of surprising. Good luck to all and hopes this helps.

Welcome to Nicer Odds community, best odds-comparison website out there and your way to securing best odds and best offers in the world of betting. Nicerodds.co.uk is an odds comparison website that assist bettors of various sports and events in finding and comparing the best offers and odds to enable them place bets at best prices on nicerodds ... The odds are collected from bookmakers that have odds on Eurovision Song Contest 2020. We don't offer any bets on these odds. We have commercial relationships with some of the bookmakers. The odds are subject to change, and can be seen as bookmakers' prediction of the betting: Who will win Eurovision Song Contest 2020? 2011 Eurovision song contest betting odds at Ladbrokes.com Jedward’s Eurovision odds slashed into 5/2 as favouritism draws closer. Having been so short for so long, France face a real fight to keep hold of favouritism. Blue’s Eurovision odds drift despite strong showing in rehearsals. Song of the Year Odds. LOS ANGELES, CA (TheSpread) – Differing from Album of the Year, which goes to a production team, the 2011 Song of the Year at the Grammys is all about the writers and composers. Here is a look at the odds for this category. The Song of the Year is pretty competitive this time around as all have odds of +400 or less with the favorite, F*** You by Cee Lo coming in with ... Germany and the United Kingdom became the latest nations to reveal their entries for the Eurovision Song Contest 2020 today.… Read More 25th February 2020 Betting Odds Eurovision 2020 by Anthony Granger

Eurovision Song Contest 2011 - Top 6 Songs - Betting - Oddschecker - favorites - William Hill

eurovision song contest 2013 - betting odds. prediction betting odds: who are the finalists (semi final 1& 2) in eurovision 2011. british-based betting agency betfred revealed its first set of ... Dana International represented Israel at the 2011 Eurovision Song Contest in Düsseldorf with the song Ding Dong Recap of all the songs from the 2011 Eurovision Song Contest Final - Duration: 6:44. Eurovision Song Contest 336,678 views ESC Yorkshire has ranked the 42 known songs in the 2017 Eurovision Song Contest by Betting odds. Odds were taken from Paddy Power and correct on 13/3/17. Disclaimer: The contents of this video ... Published on Apr 9, 2011 Having listened to the songs in this years' contest, here is a run-down of the best songs and a list of current odds as quoted by William Hill. Category

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