Another tournament another app to download. Goot-bye US Open app. Another week of typing F into google chrome before realizing the site starts with an R. The French are classy. But who was Roland Garros? Was he, a fictitious dragon who ruled over the Alps and the Bay of Biscay and all that lay in between? Or was he a French aviator and pilot during World War I? Over the next two weeks, we’ll get to the bottom of this. I know which way I’m leaning.
PS that is Querrey in the photo if you're on mobile, not me
Djokovic Ymer : Novak’s biggest win at the French Open is having Thiem and Nadal on the opposite side of the draw. A healthy reward for the #1 player in the world, and one that will mean a very wide open draw and a very enjoyable snackathon while he watches the other semifinal. Novak, or Snack Attack as he’s known to his close friends and family, will be hungies for this one after a very odd day of frustration against Carreño Busta at the US Open led to a disqualification. Novak won the Rome event with relative ease and is as close to a frontrunner as someone other than Nadal can be at this event.
Ymer has been steadily improving but is still at the top of the challenger level when it comes to clay. This won’t be close, but it’s good to see Ymer stringing together a few seasons of appearances in the majors. Djokovic in 3.
Berankas Dellien : Ricardas Berankas may be closer than he appears. After a good hardcourt mini-swing, Berankas has been absent from the clay warmups. He’s never really been the best on clay although he plays a solid baseline game, and this mostly because while he’s consistent, he struggles to hit through the court on slower surfaces. Dellien on the other hand, does his best work on clay. He’s been losing matches you’d expect him to have a better chance in and hasn’t had many bright points leading up to the break. With Djokovic in the next round and Berankis on his worst surface with minimal warmup, this is a must-win for Dellien. He’s struggled to find the finish line but he’ll have ample chances here, and his defending is similar to Munar’s in terms of lockdown baselining Dellien in 4 or he is likely headed off the tour.
Galan Norrie : This is a brilliant opportunity for Daniel. He’s been hinting at a big run on clay and overcoming a lot of the gatekeepers of the challenger tour, but a lot of third set losses have plagued him, and while it’s considered a short stretch of tour, the clay events are deep with talent. Norrie has ventured to the South American swing once or twice, with relatively poor results. He can be a frustrating opponents at his peak, but his backhand doesn’t get through the court well and he’s just a bit inconsistent with results. He’ll still be a favorite here because playing in the spotlight in a major is something that takes time to adjust to, but Galan will make it close and could eke out a win since he’s still a developing player. Galan in 5.
Sandgren Hurkacz : Sandgren hasn’t had a terrible time on the dirt this year, qualifying for events the last two weeks and unfortunately running into guys who are simply better than him. Almost beating Caruso is a great step, and a year ago that would make him a bit of a favorite to beat Hurkacz. Those of us who watched his matches with Rublev and Schwartzman saw a different Hurkacz from the inconsistent but promising server that’s been exhausting bettors while losing after winning the first set time and time again. Hurkacz was hitting very clean and generating winners relatively easily, and while his serve left him late against Diego, playing a returner like that in a long match will do that to you.
Sandgren and Hurkacz will both be hitting a heavy ball here and looking to hold behind big serves, but one of them has had higher level success in the past few weeks, and I think Hubert, or “Hubert”, as he’s known down at the ‘ol library, has the better serve and bigger groundstrokes. Hurkacz in 3-4, and please when you look at Hurkacz picture him wearing glasses and looking up from his wooden table anytime someone coughs across the room.
Garin Kohlschreiber : This is a good start for Garin, whose physical state is somewhat dependent on Tsitspas. A finals appearance on Saturday will make for a tough turnaround, but I don’t think he’ll withdraw from a major, and given Kohl’s loss to a super-hampered Fognini last week a little bit of fatigue won’t be too much of an issue. That being said, Garin’s game is largely dependent on physical effort and being a ball machine. I would say it’s split 95% that, and 5% having elegant hair. Kohlschreiber won’t just disappear and if Garin is a ghost of himself, he’ll lose, but that’ll be a big dip in level in a short period of time, and the fatigue I expect to hurt Garin’s run at the French is more of a 3rd-4th round type of struggle. Garin in 4.
Humbert Polmans : Polmans name backwards is Snamlop, and that’s important because it’s now the second thing you know about his clay game. Polmans wears a hunting cap and plays a very energetic and consistent game. In normal circumstances he’d have a puncher’s chance, and the lucky losers in tour events are classic for pulling a number of upsets (like Bublik this week) but this is not the spot. Humbert played great in Hamburg and lost early enough that he’ll have a few days to travel and get ready for RG. Humbert in 3.
Vesely Broady : These two will be very happy to play each other first round. Vesely has only just started to eke out wins on this clay swing and Broady has just qualified for the first time, beating Polmans and Kuhn along the way. These aren’t the type of wins that suggest he’ll beat Vesely, but Vesely’s struggles are the kind of thing that could see lower-tier players reel him in. I expect Broady’s timing to be a bit better than Vesely’s to start as he’s had a few matches on these courts, but Vesely really is a tour level player at the end of the day, so I believe both players will have some difficulty pulling away here. Someone in 5. The Vesely that lost to Vukic in a challenger loses. The Vesely that played a decent match against Humbert wins.
Majchrzak Khachanov : If you got into a car accident with a basket full of the alphabet, you miiiiiiiiight get this combination of letters. Kamil just won a challenger in Prostejov, beating some quality players and Andujar in the finals. Everyone who knows Andujar knows he was raised with jaguars, and wins two titles in a row every year then disappears. Majchrzak interrupting this is a very brave feat, but also one that means this isn’t the one-way traffic that a Khachanov Majchrzak match normal would be. The problem for Kamil has been distancing himself against mid-tier opponents, and that is exactly what Khachanov big hitting and aggressive serving have done. Karen struggled against Lajovic last week, but that’s a puzzle he hasn’t solved yet, and likely won’t impact his performance here. He’s got a better shot at excelling in the big moments, and outlasting Kamil’s steady play. Khachanov in 4-5.
Baustista Agut Gasquet : This is a sleeper of a great match. The way Gasquet moves around the court in between points is deceptive given how well he covers the court, and his game looks a bit more devoted to flair than it is to hitting winners. Still, his results over the past decade have been brilliant and his serving is sneaky good at times. Zero warmup matches leading into this is the polar opposite of RBA’s commitment to getting in hard yards on the surface, and that’ll be a big edge for RBA. Not his best surface (I’ll stop harping on this eventually), but RBA is playing some good ball and Gasquet is half a question mark heading into this week. Playing at home and not sporting any visual injury means Gasquet won’t just disappear, but I think rust will be a factor. RBA in 4-5.
Uchiyama Balasz : Uchiyama is most famous for being the inspiration for that Nas song, but his second claim to fame is being a helluva tennis player. Many bettors had genuine panic attacks in his first round loss to PCB in last month’s US Open, and having that fresh in their minds could lead them astray here. Attila Balasz is one of the pure clay specialists on tour, and plays a very unique style of tennis. Tons of dropshots, a strangely effective but flailing backhand, and an affinity for hitting forehand winners from 10 feet behind the baseline are on display from him, as well as one of the best kick serves you’ll see. Given Uchiyama got the business from Duckworth last week, this should be a W for Balasz, who can trouble the winner of RBA/Gasquet but likely can’t win. Balasz in 3.
Pella Caruso : Pella has allegedly been diagnosed with Morton’s neuroma, which is an inflamed nerve in the metatarsal region of the foot. I’ve dealt with nerve issues in the metatarsals after breaking a toe recently, and it is the strangest thing. It’s nonstop pain, even when you’re sitting down, but you can still train. Your foot feels like it’s on fire, but you can still walk and you know nothing is wrong. I’m not sure what treatment he’s getting for it, but the stop and start aspect of tennis is going to really preclude him from doing much on tour while this is an issue, and I believe that’s what is leading to his subpar results since the restart.
Caruso on the other hand has become a household name lately, and although he’s done better on hardcourt than clay in the restart, this is a winnable match for him. I’m just not sold on Pella’s physical ability, and Caruso has the power to break down what is normally a rock-solid defense. Caruso in 3. Disclaimer : There’s a big tendency amongst gamblers to jump on lines because they think they have some injury info. Just keep in mind, the information the general public has is always less than what the books have. If anything, a question mark about an injury is a good reason to avoid betting on a match at all.
Millman Carreño Busta : For a while I thought Millman had a knack for drawing guys he’d have a real war with, but it’s just his style. He doesn’t serve aces but he has a decent serve. He doesn’t hit winners but he swings for the fences on the forehand. He doesn’t have much of a backhand but he puts it in play in decent spots. It’s just very difficult for Millman to overwhelm anyone, and very difficult for players to create offense against what he offers. PCB didn’t look great against Nadal, but two weeks of rest will have him in good shape to compete here. I do expect him to make a decent run at this event, and this is a good test to see where his game is at after a huge payday in the USO. PCB is a professional, but I don’t put it past him to struggle to find form/motivation for a while. PCB in 4-5.
Struff Tiafoe : This is the first line I’ll mention. Tiafoe comes in at +170 for this match, which is much closer than I’d set it. Tiafoe isn’t really a productive player on clay, and lost to local hero Musetti in a challenger last week. Struff blew up with a big lead in the third against Khachanov, and lost quickly in Rome as well, but he’s had some great clay results, and I expect him to come through very well here. The Tiafoe we saw at the USO may be a repeat appearance, but this would be the best win of his career on the dirt, so the line (especially after his loss to Musetti) makes me wary. Struff in 4.
Altmaier Lopez : Altmeir is a challenger level player with a big claycourt game. He plays pretty exclusively on the dirt, and while Lopez is a great server, he may take an L here. Altmaier came through qualifying fairly easily, and Lopez is a wildcard for his effort level and service efficiency, but I’d rather back a qualifier in-form than a maybe of an offensive veteran on a slow surface. Altmaier in 4.
Harris Popyrin : This is a nice matchup, as both of these guys wouldn’t be expect to make the 2nd round at RG very often. I’ve been big on Popyrin’s game in the past, but Harris has had the better win in recent times on clay, beating Caruso in two straight. This will largely be decided by serves, and in the interest of honesty, I haven’t watched many of their recent matches. Popyrin was better for a time, but that seems to have flipped. Someone with their hat backwards in 4.
Pospisil Berretini : Oddsmakers have set the games total for this at 32, which given Pospisil’s serve is a bit low. Vasek is by no means a great clay player, and Berretini is going to make quick work of this, but I do think Pospisil will keep him on court for at least two hours. Berretini in 3.
Medvedev Fucsovics : Spooky line for this one, with Medvedev (who regularly comes in at -1000 against solid opponents) only a 4 to 1 favorite here. Fucsovics hasn’t played any clay warmups and although Med lost to Humbert it was a side event and Humbert played lights out tennis. I guess the premise we’re going with here is that Medvedev’s style isn’t great on clay, but I think he’ll have a good event here as he was a bit more impatient than usual against Humbert. Medvedev in 4.
Mannarino Ramos-Vinolas : If you like lefties who’ve been on tour forever and never change their game, this is the match for you. Local robot ARV has had a disappointing start to his clay season, courtesy of an unexplainably good Bublik. He’s the type of player who generally needs a bit more time to work the point, and doesn’t go for clean winners very often. A bit like a more defensive version of Delbonis, ARV will have a good chance here to get a win. Mannarino has potential to make this close because ARV hasn’t been winning and that mental state is sometimes a difficult hurdle. He’ll also be playing at home which has historically been a huge boost for French players. It’ll depend largely on the condition of ARV’s game, but it will be difficult given Mannarino’s controlled game and ARV’s defense for either player to pull away. ARV in 5.
Halys Giron : These guys just aren’t that good, but they’re in a great section of the draw. Halys has been hanging around the challenger tour, but hasn’t made a great deal of impact. Giron has had a more impressive stretch of wins on tour, but none of them have come on clay. The crowd will help Halys, and I think he’s a bit more comfortable on clay, but Giron is the better player at the end of the day. Not a lot to separate these two. Giron in 5.
Querrey Rublev : I don’t want you to get the wrong idea about Querrey. It’s easy to say he’s washed up or he doesn’t care or he’s only good on grass and fast hardcourt. What’s difficult to do though is to remember that he did this : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W4ICHm96chw&ab_channel=TennisWizard
That is all. Rublev might be coming off a title win, and the courts will be slower, but Querrey’s work on this planet is already complete. Rublev in 4. PS an anonymous source has recently informed me that Rublev’s house in Russia is actually structured like a hamster emporium and he wears a cape and refers to himself only as Tubelev. Vetting my source now.
Monteiro Basilashvili : Monteiro is somewhere fancy winning a challenger as we speak. I love this guy’s work ethic and he plays like he’s Nadal’s wild cousin who mountain climbs and just plays tennis when he’s in town. The forehand is big and he’s going against a guy who hasn’t notched a win since he came back to the tour. Commenting on legal issues isn’t great, but Basilashvili is facing some domestic assault charges back in his home country and there’s some notion that this is not great for his mental state. If they were both at their peak Nikoloz wins, but he’s in the doldrums and Monteiro is winning tons of matches. Monteiro in 3.
Lajovic Mager : Another tough draw for Mager. After getting a motivated Dimitrov he goes up against Lajovic who found his chops last week in a major way in Hamburg. Mager can absolutely crush the ball but he needs some times to find these shots, and Lajovic moves his opponents exceptionally well. A few missed opportunities against Tsitsipas have afforded Lajovic a few days of rest, and he should be good to roll through this one. Lajovic in 3-4.
Djere Anderson : This one of my favorite matchups in the first round. Djere is a great claycourter and plays harder than most when he gets in a rhythm, but he’s been struggling to win matches lately. Anderson’s return from injury has been similar to Nishikori’s as far as results, but not style. Nishikori has struggled to keep the ball in the court. Anderson seems to be able to play his normal game in stretches, but is hesitant to do so. It’s like watching a baby deer test it’s legs out. In a 2/3 format I think Anderson might sprint away, but here I like Djere to make this match physical and beat Anderson, who’ll be happy to go into the indoor season where things are a bit easier on the ol deer bits. Djere in 4-5.
Mayot Davidovich Fokina : Mayot is not the worst, but he’s not the best. Rublev vs Fokina is probably the best 2nd round we’re going to see in this event, and barring injury we’ll get a look at it. Fokina’s loss against Lajovic looked bad since Dusan was slumping, but looking at his form the next few rounds it makes sense. It’s like playing Paire on a day where he makes no errors and serves 16 aces. You come off the court like wait, where’s christmas? ADF in 3.
Shapovalov Simon : Shap had some clay wins that he hasn’t in the past. It’s nice to see the slower surface giving him time to really craft some winners. There aren’t many holes in his game, and he seems to only struggle once opponents settle onto his patterns since he tries to hit through the court on so many shots. When you see the guy shifting to where you’re going there’s a tendency to try to add some juice. Simon’s physical struggles aren’t public, but there’s something off about him. Age/fatigue/injury. I don’t know. The backhand is still beautiful and he’s still a great player, but he just can’t win lately, and this is the wrong opponent to be moving poorly against. Shap in 3. PS if you haven’t seen Shap’s rap video yet don’t see it. It’s not to be seen, like a rare butterfly or a peanut butter jelly sandwich your child hid in their closet for some reason 4 years ago.
Johnson Carballes Baena : Another match I feel good about. RCB is the RBA of ARV. His ability to push the pace without really hitting for winners is a quality the best claycourters all possess. Johnson can play some clay, but usually only in the USA event that consists of hardcourt players playing each other. This will be somewhat close as Johnson is decent on serve and RCB retired from his last match. The appeal of a big check at a major is such that people will make the trip even if they’re not at their best, and this one is RCB’s if he’s healthy, but Johnson’s if he isn’t. No way to pick, but I’m pulling for RCB, as he’ll be the better round 2 against Shap.
Martin Sousa : The hits keep coming. Sousa simply can’t win a match. He doesn’t seem to be playing terribly, just dealing with a huge slump. Martin will know how that feels, as he’s been taking first round losses when he finally makes his way into main tour events for a while. That changed at the start of this year though, and Martin has been a difficult out on clay in recent months. That likely will give him an edge here, and the confidence being based in results rather than in coaches puffery is likely to keep him pushing where Sousa will have doubts creeping in. Martin in 5.
Barrere Dimitrov : Barrere looked like he’d be making a big impact on tour this year before the break. There are some winners and some losers in any sporting revolution, and halting his progress seems to put him in the loser category. Draws are important, and while the solid hitter could have a chance against the new Kanye, this seems to be the old Kanye. Dimitrov tried exceptionally hard to beat Shapovalov in their Rome test, and it was good to see him playing well against even if the overarching idea is that the pinnacle of the tour has kinda passed him by. Dimitrov in 4-5.
Krajinovic Milojevic : Tough pull for Milojevic, who plays excellent dirt and worked very hard to qualify, notching wins against Leo Mayer and Yannick Maden. Kraj is pretty solid on clay and playing his best tennis the past few weeks. He’ll have to work hard to put Milojevic away, but he should do so. Krajinovic in 4.
Bedene Rinderknech : Strasbourg is in France, and Rinderknech is French. I like it. The 25 year old has been doing excellent recently on clay, and it’s nice to see him get a wildcard. Bedene isn’t the type of player who’s unbeatable, and Rinder’s win against Marc-Andrea Huesler (who should be in this event) shows he’s able to compete at tour level. The “home crowd” issue is probably getting annoying to read about now, but there’s some real comfort zone issues with the French players that lets them play comfortably there. Bedene is still a step above, but this could be close. Bedene in 5.
Laaksonen Cuevas : Henri never blinked in the qualifying, and this is a guy who does way more with way less. He trains his fitness at least as hard as anyone on tour, and while his game is pretty one-dimensional, he gets a lot out of it. He reminds me a bit of a local club champion who plays a tour pro and doesn’t just fold up and hope for their adulation. The serve is big and that’s the main weapon, and he’ll need it against Cuevas. Cuevas doesn’t give up much in the way of rallies and uses his variety to expose his opponents. Laaksonen won’t get tired, but he will have difficult ending baseline rallies, and his somewhat predictable approach is something that Cuevas is well suited to defend against. Cuevas in 4.
Munar Tsitsipas : This is a sleeper for an upset, especially with Tsitsipas playing for a title tomorrow. Munar hasn’t shown the type of world-beating dominance I expected him to on clay, because frankly he is a bit small for the tour, but he has a Nadal-level (RIP my inbox) effort on the court. He is rock-solid from the baseline and has a great attitude. Some injuries have hampered his development but even with Tsitsipas playing his best tennis this won’t be a walkover. The huge edge in serving for Tsitsipas means it’ll be tough for Munar to really apply pressure, but I think it’ll be a similar affair as his match with Garin where he seems in control until he begins making errors. Tsitsipas is still prone to shanking random rally balls and returning poorly. After talking up Munar’s chances I still think Tsitsipas may win in straight sets, but it’s one of those matches where I’d never give the spread. Tsitsipas in 3 difficult sets. PS Munar, or Lil Buttons as he’s known in the tennis rap community, buttons all the buttons on his shirt and that’s cute.
Monfils Bublik : Tough draw for both. Monfils has looked half motivated, as if he wants to play but can’t bring himself to until the pressure’s off or it would be an amazing comeback. It’s time to stop looking at these moments as a slump as this is pretty much how he has spent his whole career. When conditions are perfect, he thrives. These are outliers though, not his real level. Bublik won a bunch of sets of tennis this past week and had his chances against Garin. My initial thought looking at this match was that the games total of 35 seemed low. Bublik is likely to hold serve moderately well, and Monfils is likely to get drawn into the skill contest that Bublik represents with his dropshots/serve and volleys/underhand serves. I think this has potential to be the most entertaining match, and while Bublik is looking very good, Monfils has a lot of time here to play himself into a mental state where he can fight. Monfils in 5.
Gomez Sonego : Gomez and Sonego will both like their chances here. Sonego’s been losing, but to quality opponents like FAA and Ruud. Gomez qualified and got a nice article written about him, but his game has been legit and he’s been right around tour level for 2-3 seasons now. Gomez actually beat Seyboth Wild in the qualifiers, which is a huge win. Sonego really hasn’t won many matches, and that’ll be in his head a bit against a qualifier who is hungry to prove himself. Gomez in 5.
Thompson Albot : Our boy Radu hasn’t really been winning much since the tour’s return, which I think puts an asterisk next to the entire sport. It’s bad form for Radu not to get wins, and I believe that’s what Pospisil’s union is mainly focused on. Thompson was awfully disappointing against Coric in the USO, and is pretty bad on clay, but this again is a nice section of the draw with Fritz waiting in round two (I say that now but by the next paragraph I’ll convince myself he’s going to lose). Thompson in 4.
Machac Fritz : Is it legal to cheer? Machac’s recent results don’t say he can beat a player like Fritz, but he has beaten some players who can beat some players who can beat a player like Fritz. Fritz did well against Travaglia, and likely has the edge here. Some home-cooking for the 19 year old will be a factor if he manages to grab a set, but he’ll have to get there on his own and Fritz’ hitting may be a big factor in this one. Fritz in 3-4 but I’ll be crossin my fingas.
Coric Gombos : I see some people on twitter disrespecting my man Gombos. I’m lying, I don’t go near twitter, and only made an account so I can post a portrait of myself. You can view it here :
https://twitter.com/blurryturtle/header_photo
Gombos probably can’t win this, but he is the Gombosiest. Coric in fouric.
Rodionov Chardy : Is Chardy really tryna play tennis anymore? It seems like he’d have been making a retirement announcement this year but the pandemic ruined it. Rodionov did great in the qualifiers and winning is a habit. Chardy has the skill and serving to outclass Rodionov but he just hasn’t been doing the work lately. The upset is somewhat likely in my mind. Rodionov in 4-5.
Moutet Giustino : Local rapgod Corentin Moutet is a tiny little nugget of a player, who plays a big big game. Both have been winning matches lately, and this will be a tight contest. If this gets deep, I like Moutet as his experience winning 5-set matches is a big factor and his game is better after some miles are on both opponents since he thrives on his speed but plays a bit too far behind the baseline. Giustino in 4 or Moutet in 5.
Kecmanovic Schwartzman : We all know Kecmanovic is a great baseliner. He’s one of the tours more competent pushers, but Diego is just a better version of him. Diego was at his best in Rome, and I expect a good run here. Schwartzman in fourtzman.
I feel like there are more matches than usual. Also always nice when they don’t release the qualifier matchups until the day before the tournament. Thus ends my gripes.
Wawrinka Murray : Is it okay if I think they’ll both lose? Wawrinka played one of the funnier challenger events, losing the first set in almost every single round then winning the match and the title. Murray has hinted at the old Murray at times, but fans have grown a bit sadpants when watching him struggle with mid-level tour players. Murray hasn’t played, and Wawrinka looks like he hasn’t wanted to. The edge here goes to Wawrinka, but I expect a great contest as Murray has no quit in him and Stan has shown a prolific ability to find struggle where there is none. Wawrinka in 5.
Koepfer Hoang : Tough wildcard draw for Hoang, though a year ago he’d have been ecstatic. Hoang’s been winning locally, and I wouldn’t sleep on him here. He has a great serve, a big backhand, and is still developing. Home court advantage adds another wrinkle, but Koepfer will likely be physically recovered from his runs in Rome/Hamburg, and he really showed he can elevate his game and cover the court remarkably during that period. Koepfer in 4, and hopefully he’ll be the wakeup call Wawrinka needs in round 2.
Gaston Janvier : Two wildcards playing each other. Good for them. Probably Gaston in 4 (he has the much cooler name/hits a bit bigger)
Nishioka Auger-Alliassime : This one is interesting given FAA’s struggle to find his serving last week. Squishioka can be very frustrating in rallies, but he just hasn’t been able to win matches on clay. Clay is more of a big hitters surface, even though it’s slow. The work ethic is there, but not the offense. A disaster of a day for FAA if he loses this one; I don’t rule it out but it’s unlikely, and Bublik was in great form which explains half the loss. FAA in 3-4.
Ruud Sugita : Ruud has been excellent for years, and now he is looking like a real threat against anyone outside the top ten, and a big hurdle for those inside it. Sugita is a nice guy, but Ruud in 3.
Paul Duckworth : Tommy Paul’s best surface is clay? He really has shown an ability to perform and Duckworth just enjoyed a zipping in his last outing. One way trafffic, and Paul/Ruud in the second round is a great matchup. Paul in 3.
Opelka Sock : Say no to Jack Sock. It is addictive when this half boy/half potato starts winning matches. I think it continues here. Opelka has played no warmups, and moving on clay for such a tall fellow is really tough. He’ll have a tough time hanging with Sock’s pace, and the easier opponent (defensively) is likely to make Sock really focus on hitting to the open court. Sock in 4.
Honestly you’d tell me if there’s extra matches right? I feel like some guys are playing twice.
Cilic Thiem : Cilic is going to be sick of Thiem by the end of this one, but as a fan this is the perfect early round for Thiem. After playing no warmup matches the concern is rust, and so I’m excited to see Thiem have a match where he has to work right away. Typing that makes me a bit scared, as Cilic has played some ok tennis in the warmup, beating Goffin 2, 2. Still, this sub’s affinity for Thiem’s tumbly bum won’t let him lose in the first round, and as he gets going I think we’ll see him kinda shape into a threat for the title. Thiem in 4.
Zverev Novak : Novak isn’t great on clay. Trouble is, neither is Zverev. After a major finals, I don’t picture a guy like Zverev coming in with a smaller ego. I think there will be some harrowing moments in this, and if Herbert plays well in round one I like him to take at least two sets off Zverev. Zverev in 4-5, and I’m interested to see if he’s on the “slow start gradual turnup” path again, as that’s a terrible plan on clay for a guy who’s prone to frustration.
Mmoh Herbert : Mmoh did well to qualify, besting Renzo Olivo. Add in that Hyeon Chung was in their draw, and you really have a lack of offense in that section. Herbert has been bad recently, losing to a number of players he’d normally beat. His game depends largely on his serving, and while he’s one of the best players at net outside the big 3 (I’d put him first/Sock second) he needs to get there to be effective. Mmoh is a defensive test, but Herbert likely won’t want to get dragged into extended rallies, so this will look a bit like a low-rent version of Garin vs Bublik. I think Herbert at home gets the job done, but it may take some patches of trial and error to crack Mmoh’s defense. Herbert in 4-5.
Delbonis Londero : I was initially excited to back Londero a bunch after his USO run, as I know his best surface is clay. This is his second match against his countryman though, and it is a poor matchup for him as Delbonis has been playing decent. Delbonis his big and segments the game nicely, so the pace of the ball is fast, but the progression of rallies is slow. I don’t expect Londero to lose in straight sets, but it’s hard to back him after losing to Delbonis a few weeks ago. Delbonis in 4-5, but for betting porpoises I’d recommend avoiding this altogether.
Cecchinato De Minaur : Hehe. Finally stringing wins together, Cecchinato’s reward is a maindraw against a guy who is a nightmare matchup. Cecchinato plays a classic claycourt game. Big power and deft dropshots. He needs time to produce the first of those, and De Minaur takes that away. The dropshots are cute, but De Minaur covers the net better than most on tour. He lost to Koepfer in his only warmup on clay, and Cecchinato has won a bunch of matches recently, but this is a fairly even matchup. Both are excellent frontrunners, and I think the first few sets will be very competitive. Hard to pick against De Minaur in a long contest early in the event, and Cecchinato’s defense will likely be an issue if ADM is serving well. De Minaur in 4.
Paire Kwon : Paire still avoiding multiple matches, which is an excellent strategy for his longevity as a pro athlete. He basically could lose to anyone at this point, and his retirement in Hamburg appeared to be “I’m tired”. This is a bad sign, and worse still, Kwon is not a player who’ll beat him quick or represent a dominant opponent he can just tank against. This is one I’d advise listening to rather than watching, as Paire’s outbursts will be better than his play. I’m somewhat expecting Kwon to win, although this is similar to Nishioka/FAA where the more stable player lacks the weapons to just win in dominant fashion. Kwon via retirement.
Coria Jung : Coria is a wall. Jung is not a wall. Why not be a wall? Coria in 4.
Bonzi Ruusuvuori : Bonzi beat Karlovic which makes me sad, but I’m happy to see the challenger journeyman get a shot in a grandslam. Ruusuvuori is slowly becoming a household name, and his clay game isn’t adept but it’s a notch better than Bonzi. Fatigue may be a factor here not in hampering Bonzi’s game, but in Ruusuuvuori’s being more crisp. Ruu-uuu-u—- in 4.
Sinner Goffin : One of the sketchier first round matchups, what with wildcards playing each other and Coria and Jung going at it. This happens though, and it’s our gift to watch it. Sinner is one of the more promising prospects on the tour in a long time, and with the next gen guys finally starting to come through with big results and solid play, seeing a guy who seems more mentally stable than they were early on in their career is even better. Goffin losing quickly to Cilic isn’t a great sign, and he’s always a threat to go elfmode and stifle his opponents ability to play offense, but I think Jannik’s serving will give him a small edge here. Sinner in 4.
Fognini Kukushkin : Fognini had ankle surgeries, or else his recent string of poor performances and losses would be his normal string of poor performances and losses. He doesn’t seem willing to press himself yet, and this is another Paire/Kwon style matchup. Kukushkin will take any victory he gets a look at, but isn’t going to overwhelm his opponent. Fognini’s impatiance against Ruud did include a number of shots that missed by very little, and on the slower courts in Paris he may land a greater percentage of these. I expect Fognini to play a bit better, and this will be about optics. If Fognini feels like he looks bad or is in a spot where him trying would risk his ego, he’ll fold, and Kukushkin will win. This is sad to say about a professional athlete, but Fognini has the ankle situation to fall back on, so if he can’t win,he’ll just swing for the fences and inspect his racquet until it’s over. He’s very pretty tho. Kukushkin in 4, hopefully.
Martinez Vukic : Martinez was the best in the qualifying, and Vukic was in the qualifying. Martinez in 3.
Korda Seppi : Korda is becoming a sleeper pick on tour, and Seppi is notoriously at his worst on clay since he hits such a flat ball. I think this will stretch deep, and I am tempted to give the edge to Korda given Seppi’s recent loss to Klahn and Musetti and Korda’s win against Karatsev, who has been one of the best players in the past month on clay on the challenger tour. Korda in 4.
Benchetrit Isner : Benchetrit can make this close since it’s on clay, but Isner should be able to get into tiebreakers, which makes predicting this almost as annoying as Isner bouncing the ball between his legs. The dude’s a muppet. Someone in 4 tiebreakers.
Evans Nishikori : Evans hasn’t been great, and Nishikori has been worse. Nishikori has looked like he was gaining control of rallies and immediately making errors for a few weeks now, and it’s frustrating to predict his matches because there’s that sense that he will find form at some point. Evans likely gets the W here but it will take a lot of work. Evans in 4-5.
Andujar Travaglia : “BEGONE,” commanded Andujar. I stood there speechless. “YOU ARE AN ILLUSION!” he bellowed, waking several colorful parrots who sat atop his head. I was not there. What he saw was only his vision of me, which had come to him in a dream commanded by the vines and souls of tropical frogs. Confident that I had gone, he hopped off his perch on the mountain peak, and began descending. Not in the usual way via legs and feet, but on the breeze of a thousand moths, while nearby shamans began making a thousand broths. Andujar is back, and I hate this matchup. Travaglia was brilliant on serve leading up to RG, and Andujar was a breath of fresh air on the challenger tour, notching win after win after win and rarely dropping a set. This is one I expect to go deep, as both players are at their best. Who will win? A man does not summon the future, lest it become the present. Shamans in 3.
Diez McDonald : idc
Gerasimov Nadal : So we all know what will happen if I suggest Nadal will struggle in a match. Luckily, I won’t have to here. Gerasimov’s movement isn’t good enough to trouble many players on clay, and Nadal is probably the most dominant single-surface player that tennis has ever seen. He looked pretty human last week against Diego, and his muscles were muscley, but not as muscley as usual. Where is his massive crab-arm? The winner of Travaglia/Andujar will be his first real test. Nadal in 2 somehow.
PS User Kuklachert runs a very fun picking contest if you're interested in discord ... check it out here https://www.reddit.com/tennis/comments/izhabroland_garros_tipping_competition/

October MWC Entry for [Old Traditions]
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Grunli walked down the ancient trail arm in arm with his grandfather. His brothers and sisters had shunned the activity long ago, but he enjoyed the time he got to spend with the old man. As they made the daily trek to the crumbling old ruin, his grandfather would regale him with all the ancient myths and legends of their people. It was a fascinating look into the superstitions and culture of generations long past, plus he enjoyed the sound of his Grandpa’s voice. Almost nobody believed in the Old Ways anymore. Modern science and technology had taken residence in the imaginations of the people and forced out such simple beliefs.
The old sagas were fanciful stories of primeval beings born of the night and giving laws, agriculture, and technology. Now, with the recent invention of the Steam Engine by the Engineer’s Guild, his people were entering into a fascinating new modern age. Just five years ago they had discovered how to generate and harness Electricity for lighting using water wheels. If you were lucky, you could even see one of the new lighter-than-air sky ships as it carried passengers from city to city. Progress and abundance were promised with every new discovery.
Yet, there was something captivating, and maybe even a little magical, about slowing down and taking the time to walk the beaten old path. The deep antiquity of the daily tradition infused a mysterious kind of meaning into it. For over three thousand years his people, and his family in particular, had performed the rituals of the Ou’ardayeen, the Ancient Ones. His grandfather was the last of an unbroken line of priests reaching all the way back to the construction of the temple.
“What are you thinking about in that sharp mind of yours, Grunli? You have been quiet the whole time and we are almost half way there.”
His head jerked a little as he glanced over to see his grandfather looking at him. Even though he was old, his eyes were as lively and sharp as when he was a young man.
“Oh, nothing really. I was just thinking of how much I enjoy walking the trail with you every day and hearing the old stories.”
The old man patted Grunli’s arm and said, “Yes, not many left to tell them these days. Maybe just me.”
They walked a few more steps before he continued, “The belief in the Ancient Ones is like this trail we walk. Back in my youth, it was a broad, and easy. Many trod it to honor the Old Ways. Now, the trail is nearly overgrown, and roots tangle my old feet if I go it alone. But, in spite of all that, the trail remains. It will remain, as long as someone is there to walk it. It is important we never lose the path.”
As if the old man planned it, and he probably did, they both stepped over a vine-like root crossing the trail.
“Grandpa, I have been accepted into the Technological Institute in Brodenia. I will be leaving next month.”
The old man stopped walking for a moment and looked at Grunli. For just a moment, he saw a vapor of sadness and regret cross the old man’s face, before it was replaced by a warm smile.
The elderly priest shook his arm and beamed, “That’s wonderful my boy, simply wonderful! You have been studying to get in for what, two years now?”
“Two and a half, yes. It is a great opportunity.”
“Indeed it is. I am very proud of you. And your parents, may they rest peacefully in the Ancient’s Embrace, would have been too. I am sure you will make a very fine engineer.”
He appreciated his grandfather’s words, but despite his optimism Grunli knew he had wounded the old man. Ever since his parents died in the accident, the family had grown apart. It was obvious that none of his siblings wanted to take on the mantle of being a Priest of the Old Ways. All it meant was a paltry stipend from the government covering the barest of essentials, and a commitment to a mythology becoming more irrelevant with each passing day.
“I’m sorry, Grandfather. I know you were hoping I would take your place as the priest one day. I just don’t think that is the life I want for myself.”
He felt the old man squeeze his arm tightly as he said, “There’s nothing you need to apologize for. It’s a new world out there, an exciting world. There is little a daily walk to an old pile of stones and reciting ancient incantations can do to compare with that. If you could humor an old man though, there is something I should show you at the temple today.”
“Sure, Grandpa. Of course.”
The path opened up and they saw the ancient building. It was a large pyramid made of huge grey cut masonry blocks set in a courtyard of stone. The jungle would have overtaken many of the old buildings but for Grandfather. There were neither intrusive vines crawling up the side of the structure, nor upstart weeds growing in the cracks of the pavers. The man had spent a lifetime carefully tending the area, and it was a testament to the seriousness with which he took his task as priest and caretaker.
As they entered the dark foyer, Grunli walked to a shelf and retrieved an oil lamp. Lighting it, they proceeded down the dark hallways to the central chamber.
He always liked this part. It felt like he was traveling back in time to descent into the dark interior. When he was younger, he thought if he strained hard enough he could hear the echoes of the ancient chants and rituals that once honored this place. Beautiful murals adorned the walls, still as vibrant as the day they were painted thanks to their never seeing the face of the sun.
Vivid images showing the digging of irrigation canals, the construction of buildings, and the formation of government were masterfully portrayed. As the visitor traveled down the hallway it told a story to them. Subtle textures in the walls made the images seem to move as the unsteady light of the lamp passed by.
When they reached the end of the hallway, above the door was the image of the Ou’ardayen. It had strange, long limbs and was surrounded by a pantheon of other celestial beings depicted in stylized animal motifs. In all the murals, the Ancient Ones were always represented as smaller than the rest, even than one of his own people.
He stood staring at the image and said, “It’s strange. I never thought about it before, but the Ancient Ones are always portrayed as being small. They are almost diminutive compared to the other divine beings, and even smaller than us. That doesn’t make much sense. I would think the artists would have portrayed them stronger, and larger.”
“Good!” his grandfather replied, “You see the lesson in it?”
Turning his head away from the image he said, “I’m afraid I don’t, Grandpa.”
Gesturing broadly at the hallway paintings the priest said, “These things were not done through strength of arm, but of mind. The Ancient Ones were not conquerors; they were teachers, instructing us in how to live better. They were powerful, to be sure, but that is not what made them mighty.”
Grunli nodded slightly and said, “You’ve told the story so many times I know it by heart. In the Before Times, famine, disease, and war plagued the land. Then, servants of the darkness came and enslaved the world. After uncounted centuries of captivity, our tears and cries went unanswered and we stopped asking. Hope was lost, until one night a new star was born to die in the constellation of the Huntress, Harlana. From the night sky came the Ou’ardayeen. They fell upon our enslavers and banished them from our lands. They then gave us the gifts of civilization and promised never to abandon us to the darkness again.”
His grandfather walked in front of him and faced him with a smile. The angle of the light highlighted his wrinkles and suddenly the old priest looked tired, and worn.
“You have learned the old truths well, my grandson. These words weren’t made for the dusty tomes of old libraries, to sit awaiting rediscovery by some future scholar so they might one day see the sun again. They were spoken in the beginning, and spoken they have remained since the beginning. At least I can go to my grave knowing these ancient truths have found a home in a living, breathing mind and heart.”
At this, the old man sat heavily on one of the stone benches, “Could you do me a favor?”
“Of course, what is it?”
Gesturing around the room, he said, “My knee has been acting up with the weather lately. Do you think you could perform the ritual today?”
Grunli was stunned. His grandfather had never asked him to do it before, despite years of sitting to the side on that very bench and watching.
“Are you sure? Isn’t that against the rules or something?”
At this the old man straightened up and said, “Oh, you may be right. Let me see if it is okay with the other priests.”
He looked to his left and then to his right asking, “Does anyone have a problem with my grandson performing the ritual today? If so, speak up.”
He waited for a moment, putting a hand to his ear and straining toward the darkness.
He lowered his hand and said, “Well, it looks like they aren’t answering. I’m pretty sure it’s because they’re all dead.”
He broke into a broad smile and started laughing. Grunli joined him and they filled the ancient hall with a rare sound in the dark and hallowed chamber.
When they were done, Grandfather waved a hand at the boy and said, “You have seen it so many times I bet you could do it blindfolded.”
Grunli, still recovering from the laughter, said, “Yeah, you’re probably right.”
“Care to make a wager on it?”
Grunli quirked his head to the side and asked, “A wager? What do you have to wager with? No offense Grandpa, but your stipend doesn’t even cover new sandals every season.”
The old priest leaned forward and said, “If you are able to do the ritual blindfolded, I will show you a part of the temple you have never seen before.”
He was skeptical at that offer. He had been to this temple every day with the old man for years. He was positive there was nowhere he hadn’t seen.
“Come on, there’s no such place. I know every square inch of this place and you know as much.”
Grandfather’s eyes sparkled now as he said, “I stand by my bet. Take it or leave it.”
The idea of seeing something new in the temple intrigued him, and he said, “Yeah, you have a bet.”
“Good, come over here then and let’s get started.”
They two of them moved over to the entry doorway, and the Priest took off the sash from around his waist and tied it around the head of the younger man.
“There you go,” Grandfather said, “No peeking now or the bet is off.”
Grunli felt a small thrill of excitement as he began.
From his position in the entry doorway, he took twelve steps forward and reached out his left hand to touch the Pillar of Self.
He solemnly recited the words of the ritual in the Ancient Tongue, “The knowledge of self begins the journey.”
He turned to his right and took three steps forward and placed his right hand on the Table of Light.
“May the Light of The Ancients guide my way.”
He took six steps backward, and spun to face the opposite direction to touch the Pedestal of Sight.
“With eyes unclouded, I see all things.”
Sidestepping to the left, he placed both hands on the Altar of War.
“To battle the darkness that threatens life.”
Taking three steps back and turning to the right, he put his right hand on the Podium of the Promise.
“With the help of the Ancients, shall I overcome all evil.”
He waited for a moment, and after a handful of seconds his grandfather began clapping.
“Well done! Well done indeed my boy!”
He reached up and took the blindfold off.
His grandfather walked over to him without any hint of pain in his knee and said, “Now, I have a debt to pay.”
The old priest guided him to one of the antechambers off the main hall. It was a map room he had been in countless times before. On the floor was a miniature representation of the main hall, down to the tiniest detail.
“Uh, Grandpa, I have been in here before.”
Smiling at him, the priest said, “Do you know the name of this room?”
“Yeah, it has the name inscribed above the doorway. This is the Keyless Gate.”
The priest smiled at him and said, “It gladdens my heart to know you remember what I taught you about the Old Tongue. What do you think it means?”
“Honestly, I always thought it was some kind of metaphor or something.”
He paused for a moment then continued, “My main memory of this place was when I was playing as a little boy in here and I broke the miniatures. I always appreciated you for fixing it and not telling mom and dad.”
Surprise shone clearly on Grandfather’s face as he asked, “What are you talking about?”
“You don’t remember? A whole bunch of them got pushed into the floor.”
“Not in the least, what are you talking-“
They were interrupted by a distant booming sound that echoed through the halls. They exchanged a glance and Grandfather said, “I think we need to see what that was. I will show you the rest tomorrow.”
Together they made their way out of the ancient structure and were soon back on the path.
Grunli asked as he assisted the older man, “Do you think one of the sky ships exploded?”
Looking aloft, Grandfather said, “No, what we heard was more like thunder, but the sky is clear today.”
They made their way toward the ancient stone house. The huge standing stone in the front of the house greeted them through the trees. It had carved into it the symbol of the Ou’ardayeen. It was nearly as old as the temple, and the house was apparently built not long after.
The structure was terribly out of date by modern standards. Even to the casual observer, however, the marks of improvements and renovations done over the ages could be seen. It was in a horrible state of disrepair; its only positive attributes were the high ceilings and exquisite antique stained glass windows. That didn’t really make up for the drawbacks, however.
About sixty years ago, the former High Priest, Grunli’s Great-grandfather, began a renovation project but ran out of money due to reductions in government support. The resulting repairs left many poorly patched, and very drafty, holes in the walls. Some of the larger ones you could even see daylight through. Grunli had promised himself he would make sure they were boarded up better before he left for the Institute.
There was a series of three more of the deep booming noises and when he went outside to investigate, he saw strange clouds in the sky. They went on for miles, and were as straight as an arrow. He had never seen anything like it before.
As he was wondering over them, a blast of wind nearly took him off his feet. He shut his eyes against the blowing dust and vegetation and pushed his hands tight against his ears. Despite his efforts, the sound was painfully loud.
He cracked his eyes open and through blurred vision saw a massive shadow descending out of the sky toward him. He struggled to his feet and began taking unsteady steps toward the door. As he reached it, his grandfather ushered him in and closed the door.
Even inside, they both had to shout to be heard.
Grandfather asked, “What did you see? What is happening?”
“Three clouds in the sky, straight, and extending nearly to the horizon.”
Grunli was taken aback at his grandpa’s reaction. He went pale, eyes opened wide, and nearly fell backward. If the dining table hadn’t been there to catch him he would have fallen.
“What is it Grandpa? What’s going on?”
The old man didn’t answer, but turned stiffly and walked over to a cabinet. It was the one that held the most ancient scrolls of their faith. Shaking, he withdrew a key he wore around his neck and attempted to fit it into the lock. Seeing he was unable, Grunli moved close and folded his hands around his grandfather’s and gently helped him open it. With trembling hands, the old man hastily examined and discarded scroll after scroll. The priceless texts started making pile on the floor as he searched.
About half of the scrolls were discarded when the rumbling sound outside stopped.
Grunli started moving to the door to take a look outside when Grandfather spat, “Wait! It’s not safe!”
He retreated back to stand next to his grandfather and asked, “What has you so scared Grandpa?”
He got no answer until the priest found the scroll he was so desperately searching for. It looked older than the others, if such a thing were possible. Taking it to the table, the old clergyman began tracing his finger on the page and reading words in a strange tongue barely over a whisper.
Suddenly stopping, he exclaimed, “Here! Here it is! ‘The Servants of Darkness descended on the earth. Their voices boomed like thunder and their passing rent the skies like a mighty beast.’”
The old man looked at Grunli and immediately the younger man understood: the ancient evil had returned.
“You must hide my boy, you are not safe. They will know I am a servant of the Ancient Ones, even now they are at the door.”
“What?”
“Here, hide here,” the old man said, pulling one of the looser wooden patches away from its place. Behind it was a half finished walkway to a long abandoned extension to the house.
“But what about you? There’s room for both of us, you can hide too.”
“Obey me now, my child. I am old, and no threat to them. If they find me maybe they will not search the house.”
Grunli protested and took his grandfather’s arm, “How can you know?”
The old man gently took his grandson’s hand off his arm and said, “Grunli, my wonderful boy, it has to be you. I am too old. Summoning the Ancients takes a knowledge of the Old Ways, and a member of our bloodline. That’s why it has always been passed from parent to child within our family. You and I are all that’s left, don’t you see? You alone of your generation have the tools to do what must be done. The mantle now passes to you.”
“But I don’t know how to do that. It has to be you. You are the High Priest. Your whole life you have been training for this.”
“No, my boy, my whole life I spent passing on my knowledge to someone worthy. I spent it preparing you. I am old and full of years. If my time has come, it will rest on you to save our people.”
With that, he pushed Grunli into the hollow and replaced the patch. There were strange whining noises outside followed by the sound of heavy footsteps on metal.
Moving to the opposite side of the room, Grandfather looked at the front door and spoke, “So much to tell you but so little time. In the Keyless Gate, you must push the symbols in the same order as-“
The door exploded inward showering the room with splinters. The shockwave from the burst threw Grandfather against the wal.. What Grunli saw next caused his blood to run cold.
There in the doorway was a creature standing head and shoulders above the tallest of his own people, and twice as wide. Muscles rippled under its skin as it stepped cautiously into the room. It had a thin coat of flat fur covering its whole body, rectangular ears high on its head, and a long, toothy snout. Perhaps most unsettling were its eyes. They were intelligent, and predatory. It wore some kind of metal armor, and carried an axe in one hand and what looked like some sort of firearm in the other. Seeing the old priest, it focused its attention on him.
Grunli was barely able to make out the speech of the creature. He recognized it as the Ancient Tongue, but its grammar and pronunciation were different than his grandfather taught him.
“Abomination of stone, outside you have. Old symbol of enemy. Where is enemy?”
Grandfather pushed off the wall and with an air of nobility Grunli had never seen from him answered in the Old Tongue, “I am the High Priest of the Ou’ardayeen. I serve the Old Ways. Go, return to the darkness, if you value your lives. If you remain, you will face destruction at the hands of the Mighty Ones.”
At the mention of the Ou’ardayeen, the creatures pointed ears flattened against its head and it darted cautious looks around the room.
It replied, “Tell me, you will, or death I will give you.”
Seeing its reaction to the words, Grandfather’s expression became resolved and he said, “The Ou’ardayeen taught us to use words of peace. Such words are our solution to conquer our strife. To defeat the Servants of Darkness, the sword is the key.”
A deep rumbling growl came from the creature and in one swift motion it stepped forward and slashed its axe through the last priest of the Old Ways. Grunli barely held back a cry as he watched the monster take something precious from him.
The creature leaned over the broken body of his Grandpa, and said, “Not words or sword can us defeat, old foolish one.”
Sorrow, anger, and terror all fought to gain control of him. Ultimately, terror won.
There, standing before him in the flesh, was one of the myths from the Before Times. When it began searching around the room, a fear older than antiquity, an echo of the forgotten horror born from centuries of slavery cried out for him to run away as fast as he could and never look back.
He waited, barely able to breathe as the monstrous hulk prowled around the room. It examined the holy artifacts collected there with the care of a barbarian. Pottery from ancient times was examined briefly then carelessly tossed aside to shatter on the intricate rugs covering the stone floor.
Eventually it was satisfied, or bored, enough to leave. Grunli heard the heavy footsteps on metal again, and soon the terrible rumble began. Dust and vegetation blew into the house through the shattered door. In less than a minute, the roar faded, and the wind subsided.
He never remembered how long he sat in that little hole, almost too scared to breathe. He was lost and outside of time. All he remembered later were the sounds of screaming and crying faintly filtered through the jungle, and the occasional deep rumble of an explosion.
When his senses returned, it was dark outside and the night chill was seeping into him. Slowly, he pushed the boards away and stepped into the room. There, on the floor, was the body of the man that raised him. Moonlight filtered through the stained glass and gently washed over him with pale motes of color. It was almost as if the sky itself wished to honor this fallen priest.
Grandfather’s face, even in death, held a noble and resolved expression. Grunli’s heart broke when he saw his Grandpa’s open eyes held none of the spark of life that burned so brightly in them just hours before. The sense of loss was crushing, and for a few long minutes all he could do was stand there under its weight. When he was able to move again, he reached down and closed the old man’s eyes and whispered the Prayer of the Departed over him. When he was finished, he reverently reached over and pulled one of the rugs over the body.
Then, he cried.
He cried deeply and bitterly, and when he was done, he stood and walked out of the door and made his way to the Temple Path.
Though it was dark, he needed no lamp. The moonlight filtering through the canopy above and his familiarity with the path meant his foot never faltered. When he reached the Temple, it was bathed in moonlight. The dark grey stones had lost the comfortable familiarity they possessed in sunlight. Now, the Temple looked like an alien, dangerous place.
He walked across the courtyard and into the entry foyer. Moving to the shelf with the lamp, he retrieved it and felt around for the sparker. He found it, and began trying to light the lamp. In the flashes of the sparks, he saw the wick had burned out. Shaking the lamp gently, he found there was also no oil left. He realized that in their haste to leave, neither of them had extinguished it.
They kept a little pair of scissors and a small bottle of lamp oil on the shelf and within moments he had located both. It was awkward in the dark to trim the wick and refill the lamp, but eventually he was walking down the ancient hallway, light in hand.
The murals held a new significance for him, as he saw them now not as myth or legend, but history. He recognized in the dark shadows of the depictions of the Before Times the forms of creatures he had now seen with his own eyes. As he hurried to the Main Hall, he wondered how many other truths were told in plain sight for any who had the eyes to see them.
The ominous sense of foreboding that struck him outside melted away as the lamp illuminated the familiar interior. Passing through the Main Hall to the antechambers, he soon stood facing the miniatures in the Keyless Gate room.
He remembered the last words his Grandfather spoke to him. He had been thinking of this since he left the house and he had an idea of what to do.
Reaching down, he pushed the tiny Pillar of Self down, and it slid into the floor. Next he moved his hand to push down on the Table of Light. Following the ritual, he pressed each of the pieces down and when he finished with the Podium of Promise, there was a loud clicking noise, followed by a loud, “Thunk” from the back wall. He picked up the lamp and moved to take a closer look.
There, he saw some of the stones were protruding out from the wall. Feeling around the edge, he found a groove carved into the side. Gripping the groove, he pulled and a section of the stone wall swung open to reveal a hidden passage beyond. How many times had he been in this room and had no idea what mysteries lay just steps away?
His thoughts were interrupted by an unfortunately familiar sound. The deep rumbling he had heard before was being filtered and echoed through the halls of the Temple.
He ran back to the entrance as fast as he could. Concerned about betraying his position, he shielded the lamp light with his hand as he moved toward the entrance to the Temple. About half way through the first tunnel with the mural, he placed the lamp on the ground and used the flicker of light to guide him the rest of the way.
When he arrived, he hid his body inside the doorway and leaned his head out to the side to get a good look at the cause of the noise. There, in the courtyard, was one of the great sky ships of the Servants of Darkness. It stood on three great legs, and large pods on its sides glowed with blue fire as the wind it produced scoured the stone.
The fire and sound died away, and a ramp opened from the bottom. Heavy footsteps banged against the metal as six of the Evil Ones he had seen before descended. In front of them, they harshly pushed one of his own people down the ramp.
“This, this is the place,” he stammered, pointing to the Temple.
The creatures spoke in the Ancient Tongue, “Speak sense, or death we will give.”
Realizing his mistake, the man again gestured at the Temple and said perhaps the only word from ancient times most people still knew, “Ou’ardayeen.”
The creatures looked at the temple, then began slowly and cautiously walking past the man toward the entrance.
The man dropped to his knees and his words were barely audible to Grunli, “Oh thank the Old Ones, they are going to let me live.”
As they walked, the last of the monsters to pass by casually reached out one of the strange firearms toward the man and a ball of what looked like green electricity leapt from the device. When it hit him, he screamed and writhed as green sparks danced over his body. When they faded, he fell to the side and made no more sound.
The creatures began making a strange, rhythmic sound. He soon realized it was laughter. He stood, peering, shocked at the casual way these creatures extinguished life.
As he was fighting revulsion, he was blinded by a brilliant beam of light. He closed his eyes and pulled his head back out of sight and blinked.
“Saw something, perhaps,” he heard one of the creatures say, “Cautious we walk.”
Moving as quickly as he could without making too much noise, he worked his way back through the tunnel and retrieved the lamp as he passed. He made a direct route to the Keyless Gate. As he entered the room, he hurried toward the secret door. In his haste and poor light, one of his feet caught on a miniature and he fell.
He hit the mural pieces and the lamp bounced out of his hand. It tumbled through the air, spilling the oil as it went, landing in the hallway on the other side of the door. The lamp rolled to a rest, barely touching the wick’s flame to the flammable liquid now covering a large area of the floor. The pool caught fire with a quiet, “Fwoompf,” and the room lit up with more light than it had possibly ever known.
He knew that was going to act like a beacon drawing them straight to him. If anyone were in the Main Hall looking down toward the path to the antechambers, it would be impossible to miss. When they got here, the pool of fire would point them directly into the mysterious hallway.
As he quickly stood up, he heard a loud click under him and looked down. The miniature pieces were returning to their positions. He heard the soft grating of stone and saw the door starting to close. Doing his best to avoid the pool of fire, he edged his way past the door just before it closed. He jumped over what remained of the pool of oil and retrieved the lamp. It would still burn for a little while, but he had minutes at most. After that, he would be alone in the dark with no knowledge of how to get out, if that were even still possible.
He made his way down the corridor and after a few steps the path began descending down. He followed it, and after one or two minutes it opened up to a huge room. His little circle of light faded to black after a few paces, and was unable to reach the far walls. Turning to look back at the entrance, he saw a large frieze on one of the wall to his left, and rough cut stone on the right.
Raising the lamp, he moved toward the carvings and saw it was a retelling of the story from the hallway at the beginning of the temple. As he followed along the wall, he saw it included more details of the story than he was familiar with. Also, the artistic style was more basic, and there were many deep shadows his tiny light could not penetrate.
Continuing, he saw the familiar tale of the Before Times, and the Servants of Darkness. He reached the corner of the room, and it turned squarely to the left. The story continued on that wall and he proceeded. He reached the next two corners and guessed he was in a large square room.
As he was moving along the wall opposite the doorway, he heard a loud banging sound echo faintly behind him. The Evil Ones had reached the Keyless Gate.
A fresh sense of resolve entered him and he moved faster across the wall, looking for a way out. The mural continued, and in this version spent much more time on the battle between the Ancient Ones and the Servants of Darkness. The battle raged across the wall until he got to a scene of armor-clad Ou’ardayeen plunging a sword into the heart of the last enemy.
More clangs echoed through the ancient structure as the monsters behind him tried to break down the door.
After the construction of the Temple, the wall went to the uncut stone. It didn’t make sense. Why would they stop the story there? Hurrying, he jogged until he reached another corner. That was the fourth corner, could there be only one entrance and exit to this room?
He made his way through the dark and was soon standing in front of the entry again. From here, the clanging noise was mixed with the sound of stone chunks falling on hard stone. They had broken through. The banging noise stopped and was replaced with scraping, clawing noises followed by more chunks of stone on floor.
Having searched all the walls to no avail, he thought there must be something in the room. Maybe there was a stairway?
Positioning himself at the door, he walked directly into the darkness, holding the lamp high. After a score of steps, he saw something glint in the dark ahead of him. Picking up his pace, he moved quickly forward.
Out of the darkness, the skeletal face of an Evil One emerged. Startled, he stopped and fell backwards onto the ground. Recovering his wits, he cautiously stepped forward and saw it wasn’t just the head, but an entire skeleton of one of the monsters. Protruding from its breastbone was something metallic. Stepping forward, he saw it was a sword. He had never seen metal like this before. The blade showed no signs of age, and shone like pure Silver.
He brought the light closer, and saw the blade penetrated all the way through the body and lodged in the spine of the beast. There was something familiar about the pose it was in.
Turning to the left, he nearly ran through the darkness and soon found himself in front of the carvings depicting the last enemy slain by the Ancient Ones. The position of the creature depicted on the wall matched the one on display in the center of the room. It must have been the same one.
Looking up at the mural he thought, What am I supposed to do now? If only Grandpa had been able to tell me the rest.
The painful memory of his grandfather’s last moments replayed in his mind, and a fresh wave of grief washed through him. He remembered the feeling of helplessness as they spoke in the Ancient Tongue. He thought about the old man’s final words, and how he said that the sword would defeat the Dark Ones.
Is that it? Does the sword have some special power?
He reached up and took hold of the hilt and slid it out of the skeleton. It came out easily and even cut through some of the bone with little more than its own weight.
As soon as it was free, the bones quivered and clattered to the ground. The sound echoed through the room. As it faded, he heard shouting coming from the hallway.
Holding up the lamp in one hand and the sword in the other, he turned to face the doorway and waited. He considered putting out the lamp so he could ambush them, but realized their lights were so powerful it wouldn’t make a difference. Plus, he was sure the flame would go out soon.
As he stood in tiny circle of light, he kept thinking about his Grandfather. He saw in his mind that final strike, the spray of blood, and then later those eyes devoid of life.
Grandfather, if only you had enough time to tell me what to do next.
He tried to push everything out of his mind, and focus on his Grandfather’s final words.
“To defeat the Servants of Darkness, the sword is the key.”
His eyes went wide as he realized his Grandfather did tell him.
He ran through the darkness to the battle scene. Holding the dwindling light up close to the carvings, he saw a thin hole in the chest of the last Dark One. Carefully, he placed the tip of the sword in. It fit perfectly. He pushed it into the wall.
When it reached the hilt, there was a sound like the chiming of a small ornamental church bell and the carved rock cracked. The wall shook, and what turned out to be a thin layer of rock and fell away from the wall to reveal massive metal doors. They began to swing open toward him and he took a few steps back. Dust filled the air and set him to coughing.
When it settled, he uncertainly stepped through the cloud into the doorway. Inside, dark metallic and glass surfaces reflected his tiny flame. Truly, this was something out of the ancient legends. Looking in, he felt something familiar about the place, though he knew that was impossible. Nobody had seen this place since the construction of the Temple.
Slowly, the light dwindled. He looked down at the lamp and saw the flame shrink until it vanished, leaving only red motes of smoldering wick in the darkness.
Then, he understood. Grandfather had even prepared him for this.
From his position in the doorway, he took twelve steps forward and reached out his left hand. He felt the cool smooth surface of glass, as he whispered in the Ancient Tongue, “The knowledge of self begins the journey.”
The panel lit up, and above his hand it showed a glowing outline of one of his people.
He turned to his right and took three steps forward and placed his right hand on a Table.
“May the Light of The Ancients guide my way.”
The room lit up with the radiance of the sun at mid day, dispelling the oppressive blackness. He immediately noticed there, in the center of the room, was a metallic statue of one of the Ou’ardayeen.
He took six steps backward, and spun to face the opposite direction and reached out a hand to touch another glass surface.
“With eyes unclouded, I see all things.”
The panel lit up and in the center of the room, hanging in the air like a cloud, appeared a large glowing blue sphere. It had shapes on it, and he recognized part of it as his homeland.
Sidestepping to the left, he leaned the sword against the table and placed both hands on it.
“To battle the darkness that threatens life.”
Around the sphere and on its surface, numerous red lights blinked to life.
He retrieved the sword and took three steps back and, turning to the right, he put his right hand on the final glass panel.
“With the help of the Ancients, shall I overcome all evil.”
The statue shimmered, and a slight ripple passed over it. Starting from the head and moving down, the metal surface turned to fine dust and began falling away to reveal the armored figure.
When the outer metallic shell was gone, the being it revealed dropped to a knee and Grunli could tell it was breathing heavily.
In his best Old Tongue he said, “I and my people are in danger. The Servants of the Darkness are close outside. Can you help us?”
The being slowly lifted its head to look at him. It had a glass visor over its face and even without seeing its eyes he knew it was studying him. Suddenly aware of what kind of presence he was in, the thought of not offending it came to mind. He dropped down to his knees and bowed low with his face to the ground.
“Forgive me. I mean no offense Mighty One. Please forgive any lack of formality.”
He heard the Ou’ardayeen walk slowly toward him. It reached down and took the sword with one hand, and his arm with the other, drawing both upward. It slid the sword into a sheath across its back. With its now free hand, it opened its visor and Grunli got a good look at it for the first time.
Dark brown skin and eyes looked back at him from inside the helmet.
“Don’t bow to me,” it said, “I am your friend, not your master.”
A noise outside made the Ancient look over Grunli’s shoulder.
It looked at him and he said, “The Evil Ones are here.”
The Ou’ardayeen’s eyes narrowed and it walked past him and drew its sword. Turning, Grunli saw it walk out into the darkness. Beams of light shone around the room and then focused on one spot. All he could see was multiple shadows of the Ancient being cast across the floor of the room as all the lights were aimed at it.
In a moment, the shadow was gone and a primal cry of fear and rage erupted from the Servants of Darkness. One by one, the beams of light shook, then projected at odd angles as the monsters holding them were slain. The sound of their strange weapons fire erupted and he saw some of the bolts speed across the room and impact the far walls and ceiling. The sound of shearing metal mixed with wet, splashing sounds echoed through the hall, soon to be overshadowed by agonized screams of pain.
Then, it all stopped. Grunli didn’t know what to do, so he just stood there. The sound of footsteps approached out of the darkness, and the Ancient stepped into the room. Hints of blood sprayed on its armor were all that indicated the carnage recently wrought.
It walked to Grunli and said, “You and your people will be safe again soon.”
“Truly, the legends of the Ou’ardayeen’s power were all true,” the young man exclaimed.
Turning to face him, the Ancient stared for a long moment.
Finally, it spoke, “What are the Ou’ardayeen?”
Pointing, the young man said, “You. You are the Ou’ardayeen.”
It cocked its head to one side and said, “My species is human, I don’t-
It paused then continued, “Oh, I understand.”
Grunli looked at it, confused, “What?”
“You’re saying it wrong. It’s pronounced, ‘The Guardian.’”

A complete analysis of the Bereznyak-Isayev BI-1

Why it is a very unique vehicle that was overlooked, but will soon be rare and highly valued
The BI is an interesting plane, and due to its in-game characteristics, the setup of the event, and the overall attitude of players, I have realized that it is very likely that this will be an extremely expensive plane soon, and that there is a way to get it discounted right now, but it is only viable until the 12th of October. This post is quite long, but I hope you find it as interesting as I did, and if at all possible, helpful as well.

READ ME: There are four sections to this analysis, each which details why this plane is likely to be sought after; read only the part/s which interest you most, as it is quite long (even by TEC standards). View conclusion for TL;DR.

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The most unique gameplay and flight characteristics in War Thunder

From tier I-V there are two basic strategies. Having more energy than the opponent by climbing or staying at high speeds, and turnfighting. Most planes specialize in a certain area while lacking in another another, such as the Fw 190 Ds or P-47s which have great guns, engine power, and energy retention, but sacrifices turnfighting capability and speed. On the other hand we have the A6M1 "Zero" or Spitfire, which can climb well and turn very well, but sacrifice speed, energy retention, and have bad guns. The BI has the capability to do everything that these planes do but better, except it has horrible guns.
Apart from this plane, there are almost none which have good everything, and while the BI has some detriments, it out-preforms every single plane at its tier in every non-weaponry department, especially considering it is at 6.7. The fact that its the only useable rocket plane in the game (RIP Me 163) and it faces propeller planes and early jets means that it has gameplay that is not replicated with any other plane in the game.
In terms of performance, its only detriments come from the fact that it preforms unlike any other plane in the game. You see pilots fly at 100% throttle and dive at 700km/h in this thing then crash because they cant pull up. Compare this to a player who just unlocked their first jet, and starts climbing at 250km/h then tries to dogfight propeller planes. Until then their doctrine was good for propeller planes, but they must learn to adapt to the completely new fighting style. The same goes for the BI. At low speeds it can outturn a Spitfire and Ho 229, especially with flaps. At mid speeds (just under 600km/h) it can pull a sustained 14g, which is nearly impossible save for the Ho 229 and a some Mach capable jets.
At high speeds (600+) The BI is a flying brick, but consider two things. First; it can sustain 750km/h with only 35% throttle, second, it can sustain 500km/h in a climb at 45% throttle and reach 5000m after 2.5 minutes with 60 seconds of fuel left. Compare this to the British 7,000 GE Premium, the Spitfire FR Mk XIVc, which according to the WT climb chart, takes 4 minutes and 45 seconds to reach the same altitude at 100% throttle, so the BI already out climbs it by a considerable margin at 35% throttle, while at 100% it can reach that altitude in 1 minute and 10 seconds, over four times faster. Practically Nothing around these BRs can outclimb this plane, or outrun it either.
It is notable that at low altitudes you get "REDUCE SPEED" warnings around 730 km/h, but it your plane will not rip. Instead, you can go up to 900km/h at which you simply stops accelerating (its your top speed). You dont rip anything at this speed, but your controls are quite sluggish.
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At over 600km/h other planes have a maneuverability advantage, but this plane can pull up and cut throttle to stay above them, and now as the enemy has been maneuvering, they are slow, and you can swoop down on them or turn in with them, as at slow speeds you excel. If they try to run away, at 35% throttle you can easily outrun them, so if they turn you catch them, and if they run, you catch them. The enemies best bet is trying to make you overshoot, as the BI's incredible energy retention can be a curse at times, as even at 0% throttle you can convert 800km/h into 2500m of altitude, but it also means slowing down to stay on an evasive enemies tail is hard. You can always pull up and out though, and dive back on them as mentioned before.
With such a powerful engine, it is limited with a 1 minute and 57 second fuel load. This is deceiving, as I have tested the longevity of the fuel at different throttle settings, and it is as many have noted, non linear. For the exact data on how long fuel lasts, check out this post. If the fuel consumption and throttle percentage were directly correlated, you would expect that for 60 seconds of fuel; 100% throttle would last 60 seconds, 10% would last 600 seconds, and 1% would last 6000 seconds, while in reality as it is non-linear, 100% lasts 60 seconds, 10% lasts 6,600 seconds (1h 50m), and 1% lasts for 660,000 seconds (183 hours). At 35% throttle you have about 8 mins of fuel, a respectable amount, and as mentioned above, you can sustain 750km/h. This engine is even more powerful than the other rocket plane, the 163, but the 163 is at 8.0-8.7 where it faces MiGs and Sabres, while this plane is at 6.7 where it faces P-51s and Me 262s, and it can completely dominate them.
The % of throttle used exponentially increases the fuel used. But this is deceiving, the airframe of this plane creates almost no drag, so cutting throttle doesn't really limit top speed, only makes it take longer accelerate to such speeds. At most throttles the BI can sustain a very high top speed, as it only needs a bit of thrust to counteract what air resistance it does experience, so it can stay at high speeds. You almost never want to use throttles above 50%. The situations in which high throttles can be useful is in a stallfight when you need more thrust to hang in the air a bit longer, if you are at low speeds and need to get the energy advantage quickly, be it getting to a top speed then throttling down, or climbing up to escape low enemies. When hunting bombers do not use full throttle, as at high altitudes your rip speed and controllability decreases significantly, and you will never reach high enough altitudes if you waste your fuel in a 100% throttle and 60 degree climb, you wont have fuel left over, but at 35% you climb slower, but still much faster than anything else, and by the time bombers start reaching your bases, you can easily be at 6000-7000 meters with a good amount of fuel left.
As fuel efficiency is quite important, it would be very useful if someone who is good with data and aeronautical concepts could find the most efficient throttle + angle of climb combination for this aircraft. From what I have seen, 35% throttle at 400km/h is quite efficient and can get you to altitude fast.
Now about its guns. In protection analysis you can compare the damage of AP-I and FI-T, but not HE, and although there is info about the 20mm ShVAK in-game and on the wiki page, no where could I find the muzzle velocities of each round, and much info is from years ago, so finding accurate reliable information was hard. I, along with many players would be grateful if u/gszabi99 could extract the data for the damage and velocity of different types rounds, or if Gaijin would allow us to do protection analysis for every round, as until now the consensus on best belts are based on speculation.
From what I can tell, the HE has a bad reputation. On protection analysis, AP-I does good damage when hitting a critical component, but doesn't do well on wings or the main fuselage. I would estimate that without a pilot snipe or fire, it would take 3-4 shells to the same spot of the wing to snap it, four shells to the tail to break the controls, but only 1-2 shells to destroy an engine. FI-T appears to explode on impact, but does little damage. It would probably take 3-4 shells to the same spot to snap a wing, five to the tail to kill the controls, but four for an engine. Overall, the AP-I seems better, as it appears to have a higher muzzle velocity, is likely to start fires (which can kill much more reliably then the guns damage itself), and pens more, so is more likely to reach the pilot. FI-T can also be useful, but seems to spark more often, and its lack of pen make it useless when hunting bigger planes. For dogfighting it can be better, as snapshots during turning tend to hit flat wings, and while AP-I passes right through, FI-T damages the whole wing. Its lack of pen doesn't matter, as planes that dogfight you are small and lightly armored, and the spread of damage can do more on a hit. If your style is being on an enemies tail and fighting armored and big enemies, AP-I is best for fires, pilot snipes, and killing engines. If you prefer turnfighting, snapshots, and fighting light enemies, FI-T might be best for you.
On the topic of guns, from what I am seeing, the Russian air tree is preforming much worse in the current meta then its contemporaries. From tier I to VI its planes are generally outclassed, with few notable exceptions such as the MiG-17AS and the IL-2s. At low-mid tiers their engine performance and guns are mediocre, and in upper tiers the Phantom is dominant. Gaijin will surely see that people are not grinding out the Russian tree nearly as much as other nations with better planes. I cant predict what they will change to attempt to balance this, or even if they will do anything about it at all, but it is possible that, as we have seen in the past, if a certain thing is underperforming, it will have its characteristics improved, and if it is over preforming, vice versa. I think we can all agree that ShVAKS are underperforming, but the question is whether Gaijin will do anything about it.
It is easily a 7.7 worthy in terms of performance, but its bad guns mean it is 6.7 and faces props and early jets, both of which can do nothing against it if the pilot is smart and does not take unnecessary risks. It reminds me of the He 100 when it was at 1.7. A plane that preforms incredibly well, but as it had guns worse those that of biplanes, it was placed at a br at which it faced biplanes, and nothing could touch it. Good players were in a position where they could not be killed if they played it right, and could shred the enemy team.
Overall it could be argued that it is the best plane at its BR, but it depends on how much you like guns. If you are experienced in nations with bad guns such as Brittan, Russia, Japan, and France, you may like this plane. If you are more inclined to nations with powerful guns, having to adjust to shitty guns would probably not be fun.
Below is a list of pros and cons it has compared to other planes it faces.
Pros:

• Best MER (Maneuvering Energy Retention)
• Best low speed maneuverability
• Great mid speed maneuverability (Almost as much as 229)
• Best climb rate
• High top speed in level flight (900km/h)
• Good top speed in a dive (Mach 0.81)
• Best acceleration
• Best poweweight ratio (Even good compared to tier VIs)
• Guns have low rate of fire which helps conserve ammo
• Very unique
• Good repair cost
• Interesting in Sim
• Could be acquired for free/cheap

Cons:

• Expensive now that the event is over (85 Gjn at the moment of posting)
• Guns are bad
• 45 RPG
• Controls lock up at 600km/h
• Fuel load requires throttle control
• Plane is less controllable and more susceptible to rips at high altitudes and in dives

As a summary of its characteristics; it is better then everything it faces, but its lackluster guns make it rare to be able to use its performance advantages to get more than two kills per sortie.
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The setup of the "Strategist" event will make it very rare

There are a few things I have seen about the event itself that are extremely likely to make the BI very rare. First; although we are in quarantine, people are very busy with work and school, and it took around four hours a day for 10 days to get the Merk or the BI. It was also during the work week, so most people could only grind those four hours in addition to the work they already had, and one weekend. If people had a day or two off, they may have been able to grind it then, but Gaijin in their infinite wisdom capped the rewards at 40 per day, so players could only earn 1/6th of the materials needed (3 offensive docs at 80 intel per doc means 40 intel x 6 days). Thus to get it for free you had to participate in an intense grind for the max reward for at least 6 days, and many people didn't have the time. This was bound to make the reward rare, as who in their right mind would spend hours every day on intense grind for a videogame? (Needless to say I am not in my right mind)
The second characteristic which makes the BI rarer is the fact that the Merk comes before the BI, and in addition, the Merk can be exchanged for the BI, but the BI cant be exchanged for the Merk. Go to the Strategist map and you will see what I mean; three docs for a Merk coupon, and the Merk coupon can be exchanged for a BI coupon. If you had the choice between getting a BI or a Merk for free right now, the logical decision would be to get the Merk, because you know if you get the BI, you are stuck with the BI, but if you get the Merk, you have a chance to exchange it if in the end you decide that you would prefer the BI. This means more players will keep the Merk, as well as put the Merk up for sale rather than the BI, because its logical that if you can exchange it for a BI, it would be more valuable because it gives you the chance to get both instead of just being worth itself. It was also believed and repeated by Youtubers covering the event that the Merk would be the better vehicle to sell to make money. Considering the pervious two points, it is odd to consider that in practice the BI coupon is selling for 5 gjn more than the Merk. We will get into the reasons why this happened in the next section, but it has to do with the fact that the Merk appears to be the better reward (as we reasoned logically before), and thus people kept it and neglected the BI, making the BI rarer in the end.
As the Merk was exchangeable for the BI, most people kept the Merk. As of right now there are 9.3 times more Merks than BIs on the market. The last characteristic of the event that will make the BI much more rare is the fact that the Merk will no longer be exchangeable for the BI on the 12th. As we have seen, there are disproportionately more Merks than BIs, and when the possibility to exchange the one to the other stops, there will still be many times more Merks than BIs, making the BI much rarer.
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How players see the BI + how they act in the market

One of the most interesting and hard to measure variables about things like these event vehicles are peoples opinions towards them. Fortunately for me, there are myriads of Reddit and fourm posts from the average player about their feelings on the event, as well as many Youtube posts about the event which most WT players watch, and my own experience in the game, where I played consistently with and against teams full of Merkvas, while in Air battles there were only 2-3 BIs per game, and I was able to talk with players of each to get a general impression of what they think of them.
The first thing to consider is the first impression everyone had when the event was announced. The first thing almost everyone saw was that there is a rocketplane with two shitvaks, only 45 RPG, and less than 2 mins of fuel, and almost every comment about it was that it would be really bad. From what we knew, all signs said it would be true! We had no idea that its flight characteristics would turn out to be practically the best at its tier, it would have more engine power than the 163, and the fuel would be manageable with throttle control. On the other hand, we had the Merkava 3D. This was seen as easily the better vehicle, from first sight is is a very good looking tank, while the BI looked like dildo with wings. On top of that, the Merk boasted the best round in the game, good general performance, part of a Israeli collection, has a good supporting lineup and a great repair cost. Based on this primary info, the BI seems quite bad, just a meme plane, while the Merk seems like a very good vehicle.
Now lets consider the Youtubers. They are good players who had early access to the vehicles, and have quite an influential voice. What they say, especially if many of them agree, would be believed by the majority of their audience, and thus those interested in grinding the vehicles (Especially if it reinforces their first impression). In all the videos of early gameplay and ideas for how to grind the event, the advice that the Merk was the better vehicle, and that to make money it would be best to sell the Merk, was almost universal. Everyone who made a video said that the BI itself was ok, but its guns were extremely frustrating to the point of being almost useless, while the Merk was portrayed as quite good. Now there is a thing to consider about WT Youtubers. As it is usually one of their prime sources of income/favorite hobbies, they play WT a lot, more than the average player and their viewers. As they play so much, they get really good, and for tanks; "No armor is best armor" (Phlydaily). The gun is the thing that matters the most to really good players, and armor is there for if a mistake is made and you are in a position where the enemy can shoot you (Spookston and others). As Youtubers tend to be above average players, they note it has the best gun (round) in the game, and ok survivability. As they are very experienced, they can position themselves so as to not get killed, and with the best round, do really well. But as mentioned before, armor is for if mistakes are made, and boy does the average player make mistakes.
Even in my B1 ter and Tiger H1 (famously OP tanks), I can get penned a lot because I make mistakes. Nearly everyone agrees that the Tiger H1 is OP at its br, almost unpenable if played right, but if a flanking enemy shoots you, you get sniped, or there is more than one enemy to angle against, you are easily penned. It takes a good player to position correctly, to know when and how much to angle, to not ever expose a flat plate. I tend so hear people say that when they play allies they can never pen Tigers, but when they play Tigers they always get penned. The point I am trying to make is that the average player is average, and not having armor to protect them when they fuck up means they die. Look at the OP R3, and yet most R3 players rush a cap and come in guns blazing and get killed instantly. It is a good vehicle, but the lack of armor makes the average player not do great in it. The R3 is similar to the Merk in the fact that they are really good vehicles with bad armor, and while they are great for experienced players who know every spot in the map and how to correctly position by heart, most will just push and be disappointed when they get killed by a sniper every time. Long story short, the Youtubers said that the Merk was a really good vehicle because of its gun, but for most players its just OK if not underwhelming, and the the state of allied 10.3 confirms it. When considering the BI, Youtubers opinions started to change once they had the BI for longer. It started out as being not recommended at all, but slowly they began to learn how to fly it and that it is actually quite fun. This change is the same learning curve we all have experienced with jets. It was a completely new and unique playstyle, and even the really good players had bad first experiences because they didnt know how to fly it properly and use all its incredible performance advantages. Thus, slowly the BI has been enjoyed by those who play it more and more, and consequently, the opinions of the Youtubers and players about it have improved.
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Initial opinions about the BI/in favor of the Merk:
A BI... to fly - War Thunder Napalmratte
🔴First Look - Bereznyak-Isayev BI-1 - War Thunder LiveStream🔴 WhooptieDo
The Issue with War Thunder's events Ash
War Thunder's Event Problem Spookston
War Thunder - Merkava Mk.3D "The Hard Hitting Prize!" Bo Time Gaming
Holding The Line - Merkava Mk.3D War Thunder DEFYN
Merkava Mk.3D - IT IS HERE - Crafting Event "Strategist" Vehicle... RagingRaptor
Players who I had met in-game who had just unlocked the BI crashed or ran out of fuel and ammo a lot, and said that it was ok but its guns were trash and its flight characteristics were very weird.
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Recent positive opinions on the BI:
Day 3 Thoughts - Wargame "Strategist" - War Thunder TheEuropeanCanadian
RUSSIAN SPACE INTERCEPTOR... PhlyDaily
2 Minute Hero The Iron Arminian
The Russian Ohka | War Thunder BI ConeOfArc
Players wo have played the BI for longer now, such as those who have spaded it, appear to get 1-2 kills on average per sortie, then btb to rearm and come back to the combat. Overall they usually get 1-3 kills per game and rarely die. They say that it is very fun once you get the hang of it, and that you can easily outmaneuver the enemy, stay alive, and get shots on target, but the worst part is the 45rpg and bad damage. Even with every shot on target after getting an enemy slow, only 45 chances to shoot limits how much the planes superb performance can be used before a btb.
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Now lets consider value. As the BI was first considered to be trash, the initial expectations of the market were quite low:
Processing img fdugkuukfyr51...
While in contrast the Merk had many buy orders, and for higher prices. This makes sense as people thought that it was much better. As people began finishing the event, they would keep whichever they wanted more, usually the Merk judging by the lack of entire teams of BIs at 6.7. If they wished to sell, they would but up the Merk, as everyone said it was more valuable and would sell better. Thus the Merk coupons came onto the market by the hundreds, while even now there are less than a hundred BI coupons for sale. Now armed with the knowledge of supply of each vehicle, lets look at the current prices of each. The lowest 32 sale orders for the Merk are 80 gjn, while there is a single BI going for 85gjn, then more priced higher. This doesnt make sense, why is the coupon for the supposed better vehicle (which can also be exchanged for the more expensive one) cheaper than the supposed worse one? You could just buy the Merk for cheaper and exchange it for a BI through the Strategist map, why is the price so high? The answer is a fundamental principal of supply and demand, the fact that the fewer of something there is, and by extension the rarer something is, the more valuable it is. As of right now, the advice has been to not sell the BI, but to sell the Merkava, which means everyone intending to sell, either listed a Merk coupon on the market, or is saving it to sell when the price goes up, and much fewer have done similarly with the BI. The only thing keeping them more or less balanced is the fact that you can exchange a Merk for a BI, so their differences in price are limited. But soon the final stage of the event will be over, and this conversion will be no longer possible, leaving a ton of players with Merk coupons on the market, and an extremely limited number of BI coupons. This precipitates a huge inflation in the cost of the BI, because as of now only around 90 new BIs will ever be created, while there are hundreds of Merks that can be redeemed.
As it is such a unique vehicle, and the opinion of those who play it is generally improving, it will likely be highly regarded, and as such drive up its price quite a bit on top of the fact that it is going to be quite rare already. Something quite similar happened with the AU-1 from the last event, but now there much less BIs on the market than AU-1s after 6 months, and the AU-1 is not nearly as unique as the BI!
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Two chances to buy it for cheap

Right now the BI is going for 85 Gajouble Roubles, but if you are interested there are two ways to pick it up for less. Unfortunately, as it was an event vehicle, there is no way to get it for free anymore, and the limited supply means that the price will only go up as it gets rarer.
The first method is one I thought up and made a post about earlier which you may have seen. It involves buying the Merkava, which due to saturation is going for 5 gjn less than the BI, then going to the Strategist crafting map and converting your Merkava into a BI. Its easy and saves you 5 bucks, but if you want to do this you better hurry, as the event ends in a few hours and you wont be able to exchange it for a BI any longer.
The second method is less sure, but will probably work. As the anniversary sale approaches, sellers in the market, including the sellers of the BI, will want money to spend during the sale, and thus will sell their vehicles for lower prices instead of holding out at a higher price. If the sale is really good this year, then the price will lower more because they will really want the money to buy the packs on sale. The drawbacks are that from now to the sale the price could rise substantially and even with the lowered price cost more then you can get it for now, and if the sale is bad, then the price of the BI wont lower.
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Conclusion (TL;DR)
After looking at all aspects of the event, the behavior of the players, and the vehicle itself, I have found that it is a very fun and good vehicle if used right, and that it is more unique than any other vehicle on the market except the E 100 and the P-59, all of which offer a completely unique experience that can be replicated by practically no other vehicle in game. The Merk is has a good gun and looks good, but is not that unique, while the BI is very fun.
In terms of value, the BI is already much rarer than the Merk, and its cost on the market will soon increase to surpass the Merk by far. If you are interested in it, I would recommend acquiring it soon before it gets too expensive.
If you have a still have a coupon and are deciding which vehicle to redeem; first consider your current experience with top tier American tanks. If you enjoy that type of combat, would like an addition to your top tier lineup, or want to use this tank to grind tier VII, the Merk offers what you want. If you dont play high tier ground RB and dont have a lineup at that BR, want a vehicle that offers significant advantages over the enemy, and want to have fun and not stock grind, than the Merk may not be for you. If you want a vehicle that offers an experience unlike any other in the game and you find outmaneuvering your opponents fun, the BI may be for you. You dont need a lineup, you dont need to suffer a bad stock grind and horrible team composition, and you dont even need to have any Russian planes, you can just get it and start flying.

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Afterword

Truly the best reward is the Lübeck F224. A decent amount of grinding to get a quite good vehicle, although because Gaijin didn't design Naval battles to be fun no one plays them. If they added some more good sea premiums I am sure they would revamp naval because they would have an incentive to do so. It could be fun as well if low tier sea grind wasn't so terrible.
The worst reward is easily the half track. At such a low BR, battles are rarely fun. The vehicle itself may be iconic, but if it was the 75mm variant at a higher BR I would be much more inclined to get it.
If I were to design the event there are a few things I would change. I would still want it to be necessary to grind so people would play and get these rewards on top of normal tree grind, a win-win, but not to much to burn out the participants. Ideally, there would be two tiers of reward instead of three, the first with the 75mm variant of the half track or the Lübeck. This way there are two good vehicles to choose from for a lesser grind, and people are happier for it. It may also entice more players to get into naval. The second tier reward would be the BI or the Merk, as these are good vehicles and the grind is just right. In addition only tier III and up would be allowed, no more sealclubbing innocent new players with the B1 ter or F4U 1A. In addition to these rewards I would make gameplay more important in getting the rewards. When I was grinding, I could drop a single bomb from my 264 and be AFK the whole match and get enough activity for the reward, but in a fighter I needed more than one kill to do that, and you don't have the option to climb into space as you need to fight for activity. There was a pitiful reward for actual performance, the assault groups, and even then you only got it if you got first place. I would make the event last slightly longer as well, and perhaps add another reward to each tier to make there be good variety and represent minor nations. Thus players would be satisfied to get one or two of their preferred vehicles, while those set on hardcore grind could get all three tier one rewards and one tier two, or two tier two rewards and one tier one reward max.
I procrastinate writing my essays for school by writing an essay for WT, ironic.
Some information I referenced may have changed slightly between me writing it and you reading it, for example, it may be after 12:00 GMT on the 12th, so exchange of coupons will no longer be available, and the market data may have shifted a bit.
As of the exact moment of posting the event will end in 6h 32m. It is 11:27, I have school tomorrow, and I am tired so I will check responses in the morning.
If you have read my whole paper, good job! (If you just scrolled here, see the TL;DR in the previous section) I wrote it because I want to help any players who are interested as well as players who have the BI and are learning how to fly it, and because what I saw and learned seemed very interesting to me, and I wanted to share it with others who may be as interested about this event. If I am wrong in a certain area, or some info is not up to date, please let me know.

You know who I hate? People who talk about Star Wars on the internet.
For some reason the way Star Wars fans phrase their posts just fucking bugs me. They type like it's a college thesis, like they're a Star Wars intellectual, like people will think they're cool for their deep knowledge on the EU lore. I see this everywhere, in WhoWouldWin threads, in the comments of posts on here, even in the comments of my Star Wars RTs. There's always those one or two people who draft up a fucking essay, and the worst part is they always get their facts wrong while still speaking with that trademark air of false authority. They either mix canon and Legends or just use fan theory bullshit. God, I just hate people who talk about Star Wars on the internet so fucking much.
Anyways, time to talk about Star Wars on the internet. I finally got done with this: the sequel to my last post about Legends wank. If you're wondering about what "Legends" is or why I hate Legends wank so much, just read that last post, it covers it all in the intro.
Last post I focused on Palpatine, but this post doesn't really have any theme, still focusing on Dark Side stuff though. Speaking of my last post, I've actually updated it with new material, so go read it again if you want. I reference it a bit in here so you might want to do that to get context.
Before getting into things, I want to address some criticisms of the last post.

• You used WoG! - Yes, yes I did.

And that was the only criticism. Yeah, I guess that's a sign I did pretty well last time, because the Legends wank crowd just fixated on the one point I made that relied on WoG to ignore the entire thread instead of actually trying to come up with any actual rebuttals. Honestly I think it's a bit funny, cause I'm willing to bet my mother's life that if tomorrow George Lucas came out and said "mmm, every Legends Jedi is an MFTL multiverse buster," the same type of people who complain about using that piece of WoG would be tripping over each other to update the VSBW profiles first.
But okay, let's talk about WoG. If you don't know what WoG is, it stands for Word of God, and people use it to refer to something an author says about their story outside of the context of that story. Think of J.K. Rowling saying wizards shit on the floor and use magic to clean it up on Twitter. It wasn't in a book, but the author said it. That's what WoG is.
Personally, I think WoG should be judged on a case by case basis. This is how most battleboarders look at WoG, and I disagree with this mindset, I accept it more based on who's saying it and how much sense it makes with the presented material. I stand by using Tom Veitch's statements about Force Storms in my last post and still find them completely 100% legitimate, since he's the sole author of the Dark Empire story and his statements make the story make more sense instead of less. He also said it was the intended explanation when the comic was being released. I do, however, understand some people's trepidation when it comes to accepting WoG, which is why I've included other points about Force Storms in the post to outline why, even if you toss out WoG, they're still not applicable in most combat scenarios and don't scale to his other Force abilities.
I learned my lesson though, and I won't be using any WoG in my Legends wank posts again. Not because I think using WoG is wrong to do, no, I just don't want the whole post to be ignored because of one point. So yeah, that's my piece on WoG, not gonna say any more about that. Onto the actual thread.

The Claim: Darth Nihilus is a surface wiper

When someone comments "Legends is crazy bro," they usually like to tack on a few examples of "crazy" Legends characters. Abeloth, Grandmaster Luke, the one Sith that was immortal, etcetera. Because of the Obi-Wan Death Battle, he's become a recent favorite for this - I can't tell you how many times I've seen someone say "Obi-Wan can open a black hole with his mind!" because of that garbage fucking video. But a perennial favorite of the "Legends is crazy bro" posters is Darth Nihilus, an intimidating black-cloaked villain from the Knights of the Old Republic series.
From the way people talk about this guy, you'd think he's the Legends version of Galactus, a guy who flies around the galaxy eating planets and shitting out supernovas. Of course, as with all Legends characters, he is drastically, drastically oversold.
Saying Nihilus "eats planets" is misleading. He doesn't suck up the entire mass of a planet into his mouth, he uses a special Force Drain technique to consume the Force energy of the population of a planet, which causes collateral damage for unspecified reasons. Though it's said/implied he's done this numerous times, we only see Nihilus actually do this once to a planet called Katarr, in a flashback scene in a comic. It's shown to cause widespread ruination and reduce people to skeletons.
This is a good feat, sure, but the calc people toss around for it has more inflation than DeviantArt. A Narutoforums calc claims that he's outputting 727.586 petatons here. Or, as Death Battle would put it, 54 TRILLION HIROSHIMAS.
Just look at the assumptions being made. It assumes that Katarr was obliterated to the point where it was a flat ball of dust and all the oceans were evaporated, based on the end of the comic where you can see it through the windows of Nihilus's ship and it's shown as a featureless ball. But this can be explained as the ship having moved further away from the planet to the point where you can't see any detail on it in the time between him wiping the planet and going down to pick up his disciple from the place. It's said to be days later in a text box, so for all we know he could've travelled to a completely different planet in that time. The comic obviously doesn't accurately draw Katarr to scale anyways, so it being depicted as a flat ball in the last pages is probably just artistic license anyways, if it's the same place.
If that wasn't enough, we actually see what the surface of the planet looks like after the wipe, and check it out - there's still some shattered buildings around, ruined trees, and what looks like a still-standing tower in the background. I don't think those would be there if all the mountains were reduced to atoms and all the oceans were evaporated as the calc claims. So the 727 petatons number can be safely chucked in the dumpster.
Look, I'm obviously not gonna say Nihilus can't surface wipe with his Force Drain. It's pretty explicit from the comic. But what I am gonna say is that nobody scales to it, his other powers don't scale to it, and it's also just kinda irrelevant.
Before I cover those though, I just have one last thing to talk about: there's actually a debate on whether or not Nihilus's Force Drain is the thing that causes the damage when he "eats" a planet.
It mostly comes from this one encyclopedia entry for him which says that he drew "more and more power from worlds that he blasted into ruin" while traveling on his special ship, the Ravager. So the "blasting" comes before the "drawing," or draining. Basically people use this to say that what Nihilus actually does is destroy the surface of planets with the Ravager's weaponry and then sucks the Force out from the people on it after.
It's interesting, and the comic can actually line up with this idea if you read it a certain way. Honestly, a draining ability causing random explosions is pretty weird if you ask me, and the bystanders we see during this explosion seen don't really look like they're getting their Force drained. The depiction of his draining power is also off, in the game we see it's an orange energy bolt. No random explosions, no creeping black shadow. So it's possible the destruction we see in the comic is thanks to the Ravager firing on the colony, and the Force Drain happened after off-panel.
So yeah, I see why people think this could line up. But there are, of course, things that contradict this. Visas, Nihilus's disciple and survivor of the attack says that the destruction of Katarr wasn't done with a ship and the KOTOR Campaign Guide conflicts with this too, since it said he wiped out the life on the planet "using the Force."
So yeah, it's probably not the ship blasting thing. Just wanted to clarify that, cause I knew people would ask. From here on out I'm going with the regular interpretation.

Nobody scales to it

Nihilus is routinely pointed out as being an absolute oddity among the Sith and Force users in general. He's not even a regular being: he's a "Dark Side aberration", he's been called a living wound in the Force. His souped-up Force Drain is pretty well defined as a unique ability to him thanks to his specific origin and biology, and tons of Sith Lords have unique powers of their own. So scaling other Force users to his feat isn't really something you should do. I don't even think Palpatine could replicate this: sure, he could replicate any other of Nihilus's feats based on statements, but I don't know why he could use his super special wound in the Force "Lord of Hunger" Force Drain power.
Saying that anyone who isn't a living wound in the Force powered by pure overwhelming hunger could replicate his special Dark Side hunger-fueled Force Drain just lacks any sort of sound basis and doesn't work either objectively or narratively.

His other powers don't scale to it

Sure, Nihilus can suck out people's Force energy on a planetary scale, but it's not like he can put that power behind a Force push or something. I think this is pretty obvious but I feel the need to point this out because of the "VSBW model of damage output scaling."
This is a term I just made up for that thing VSBW does, you know, that thing. A witch could have two spells - shooting fireballs and making a big storm in the sky. VSBW will take how many biggatons it takes to make the storm, then claim her fireballs hit with the same force, when the best feat for the witch's fireballs is one lightly singing cardboard. It makes no sense to me because the fireball and the storm are obviously two separate things, so conflating them makes little sense.
But of course, people will say "well, all his abilities are powered by the Force, so they should all be equivalent." Short answer, fuck off. Long answer, no, there's tons of Force users in Legends and canon that have like a specific "gimmick." Yarael Poof's gimmick in Legends is that he's good at illusions, as an example. Others are specifically talented at using the Force to make cold mist, or specifically talented at telepathy, or psychometry, or mind reading, or whatever.
It's very, very well established that people can be better with certain Force powers than others. And once again, Nihilus's whole gimmick is that he's got a super special Force Drain he can use to suck the Force energy out of people. He's literally called THE LORD OF HUNGER. So saying "yeah his super special Force Drain damages a planet's surface, so he can do that with a Force push" is fucking dumb.

Kinda irrelevant

So his other powers don't scale to his Force Drain, hope you get that by now. So, outside of being useful for sucking out another character's Force energy in battle - which is a powerful move, believe me - his Force Drain's range is pretty much irrelevant. Sure, it can work on a pretty massive scale, but that doesn't really matter if he's just fighting one person. I'm not saying Force Drain isn't a good power against other Star Wars characters, just that the scale of it doesn't matter when people generally just put characters in one-on-ones on WhoWouldWin-type sites.
It also doesn't matter if he's not fighting someone from the Star Wars universe, since logically they wouldn't have any Force in them for him to suck out. Yes, his Force Drain affects more than just Force users, but everyone in Star Wars has Force in them, even planets have Force in them - this is pretty consistent, they say this kinda stuff in the movies. So Nihilus's Force Drain is only really relevant when you match him up against another Star Wars character.
But people like to equate stuff like life energy or ki or Force or chakra or Reishi or souls or whatever in battleboarding just to make things fair, so I guess that point is up to personal interpretation / the rules someone lays out in a thread.

Verdict: Only with a Force power that no one else scales to, that's unique to him, that his other powers don't scale to, and that's mostly irrelevant in a standard WhoWouldWin scenario.

The Claim: Vitiate is a surface wiper

There have been plenty of online Star Wars games over the years, but Star Wars: The Old Republic is easily the most popular. The main threat, as I understand, is this evil Sith guy with like 20 different names: Tenebrae, Valkorion, the Sith Emperor, whatever. Most people just call him Vitiate, as will I in this post.
I don't really care for MMOs, so I never really got into SWTOR despite being a Star Wars fan. My only exposure to it has been through research for these Legends posts, and I have to say, it looks just as boring as any other MMO. I also just kinda hate every aspect of its design, but that's neither here nor there. This is a battleboarding post, and the big thing every "Legends is crazy bro" poster talks about from SWTOR is Vitiate's planet-wiping ritual.
Yep, it's a ritual. Yeah, that word alone makes things pretty open-and-shut. Force rituals don't really scale to other abilities or Force users for obvious reasons. This particular ritual really doesn't scale, cause it requires - wait for it - the death of eight thousand Sith Lords to pull off. Sure, it wiped out all life on the planet it was performed on, a place called Nathema, which yeah, that's impressive. It worked by sucking all the Force out of the planet, which made Vitiate immortal and much, much stronger in the Force than he already was. It's a good ritual, not challenging that. But eight thousand Sith Lords is definitely not something Vitiate has on hand at all times.
There's some other stuff I could mention about this Nathema ritual, like how it also took ten fucking days and required some kind of computer named Zildrog which killed all the Sith Lords or something, but I really don't have to. You see, nobody gives two shits about the Nathema ritual. That's right, I just wasted your fucking time talking about it.
Here's the answer you'll get if you say "Vitiate's stuff is rituals" to your average Star Wars battleboarder.

While yes, the ritual on Nathema required the sacrifice of thousands, his later feat on the planet Ziost was done completely with his own power and was NOT a ritual. So, in summary, Darth Vader could TOTALLY blow up a planet bro!

So, let's talk about the Ziost wipe. The Ziost wipe, despite what people may claim, is still pretty obviously a ritual. Let's first explain the situation, I'm gonna be doing this in bullet points.

• At this point in the story, Vitiate is going around in a spirit form. He was trapped in this temple on Yavin, but after a battle there he was able to leech power off the death being caused to escape. He was left weakened by this, so he went to this planet called Ziost to replenish his power.
  
• He does this by taking over people's minds and killing people so he can sap the power.
  
• He's specifically taking over soldiers and Sith and using them to murder as many people as he can. The more people he murders, the stronger he gets, and the more people he can take over. It's a cycle basically. His goal is the accumulation of power to replenish himself. He even gains power from the people the player kills.
  
• After he's powered up enough to do so, or at least back to full strength, he unleashes a wave which moves across Ziost, turning every living thing to dust and turning the landscape into a dead husk.
  

Yeah, the argument people use here is that Vitiate can did the wipe alone without any ritual sacrifice because he was weakened beforehand, then got back to his standard level of power by slaughtering people on Ziost, then right as he was at that level did the wipe. Honestly, I don't know where people get the idea he did it right when he was at full strength. At the end of the missions on Ziost which you spend fighting those he's mind controlled, you actually go back to the space station place that serves as a mission lobby. During the time the player is there, it's clear Vitiate still has people under mind control and is still killing to increase his power. I can't find any indication of canonically how long the gap is between you leaving the planet and you getting the signal that the planetary wipe is happening, or if Vitiate did it right after getting back to full power. I might just be missing something, so let's just go with the assumption that he did the wipe right as he got back to full strength.
Remember when I said Force users have gimmicks in Legends? Well, Vitiate's is rituals, pretty much. That and being a body-hopping spirit. He uses rituals for a ton of shit, rituals are kinda his thing. Here's the evidence Ziost was just another use of the ritual, even if he did it of his own power. More bullet points.

• The effects of the Nathema ritual are described like this. Note these details: "utterly obliterating all traces of his victims," "buildings intact," and "no color."
  
• You can clearly see from this clip that the victims were "utterly obliterated" - they get turned to dust.
  
• This is what the aftermath of the Ziost wipe looks like. The planet is all shades of black and gray - no color. You can also see a standing building in the background.
  
• Here's some gameplay footage of a guy wandering around on Ziost post wipe. Yeah, most of the buildings seem alright, just like the book description of Nathema. And once again, no color. The monsters he sees were made by Sith alchemy by the way, if you're wondering how they're around.
  
• The Ziost wipe made Vitiate stronger, just like the Nathema ritual did.
  
• Later, when a character brings up his past ritual on Nathema, another mentions Ziost, saying that he did something similar there. The character probably used the word similar and not "the same" since they wouldn't know if it was exactly the same or not.
  

Some people try to say that this Codex entry disproves the idea that Ziost was a ritual. This is because it uses the word "but" while talking about rituals, separating the Ziost wipe from rituals as being its own different thing. This is not the greatest of arguments cause we see how the Ziost wipe works and I think it's pretty clearly supposed to be the same ritual Vitiate's famous for. The "but" here is more likely separating the "whispered rumors" nature of the previous planet-wiping events to the "clear display" of the Ziost ritual. The fact that they talk about an address to the Galactic Republic right after points to that. Honestly, it's how I read it the first time I saw it, this other interpretation didn't even cross my mind.
So yeah, it's a ritual. He can maybe activate it of his own power after the Nathema amp, but still, it's a ritual - very clearly its own thing with its own purpose and means of being performed. There might be some differences in the execution of Nathema and Ziost, but the practically identical outcomes show that the same principle is at play. And again, the ritual is more akin to a planetary Force Drain like what Nihilus does than some sort of planet-killing death wave. So let me address the same points as I did for Nihilus here.

Nobody scales to it

Saying that people can scale to a ritual is weird to me, but I guess you could say that if another Sith got their hands on the information of how to perform the ritual, they could do it, which would be a form of scaling. Sure, that works out to me I guess, but they probably wouldn't be able to do it of their own power like Ziost. Vitiate was only able to after doing it the first time, which permanently amped his power to a massive degree. They'd have to do the eight thousand Sith sacrifice first.

His other powers don't scale to it

Yeah this is just kinda obvious, Vitiate doesn't rip the crust off of planets with telekinesis or whatever, the ritual is what he does.
Honestly I don't get why people think you can scale Force powers to other Force powers at all. Like, what if a Force user only showed the ability to mind control people. Would you calc how many joules of energy it takes to mind control someone to determine how much they could hypothetically lift with their telekinesis? What if they only ever used Force lightning? How would you get the power of their mind control from that, would you take the wattage or something? Do you see why I think this is weird?

Kinda irrelevant

Since this is basically a weird version of Force Drain - works by sucking the Force out of the victims and the planet - just refer to the Nihilus section I guess. The funniest thing here is that, since planets in other verses wouldn't have Force in them to be drained out, you can argue that if you dropped Vitiate on real life Earth he wouldn't be able to surface wipe it. Kill everyone on the planet over time, sure, but not suck its Force out.

Verdict: Only with a Force power that his other powers don't scale to and that's mostly irrelevant in a standard WhoWouldWin scenario.

The Claim: Darth Bane is a surface wiper (feat. the thought bomb)

I'm gonna try and make this one brief. It's less complicated than those two doozies we just had to cover, so yeah. Remember the thing I joked about in the last post, "Darth Bane's world-crushing strategy?" Well, it turns out it's actually referring to a ritual that Darth Bane came up with.
Once again: ritual. Already it doesn't scale to anything, be that other Force users or Darth Bane's other abilities. It's a pretty uncomplicated ritual too, basically a bunch of Sith just sit together criss cross applesauce and channel their energy to make a storm that burns down a forest.
Apparently some people think this is surface wiping for whatever reason, which I don't understand. This ritual was intended to burn down a forest to force some Jedi out of hiding and is noted as being similar to and weaker than the thought bomb ritual, another ritual that involves a bunch of Sith joining together to do a thing.
Not going to say too much about the thought bomb as it's pretty complex, but it fucked up the ecosystem of the planet it was performed on, sucks up the spirits of Force users, and is a suicide attack. Otherwise, it's similar to the other ritual here with the Sith needing to join together to do it. Read the Wookieepedia page if you want to learn more. So Bane's ritual is explicitly weaker than that, despite his boast while performing it that he's going to "kill a world."
Also once again, we have an inflated Narutoforums calc. Sheesh, lots of Star Wars discussion on a forum for an entire different series.
The issue here is that the calc assumes the ritual covers half the planet when it stopped at the edge of a forest. It's also a bit wonky cause they made a lightning storm that burnt down the forest, it wasn't just some kind of direct energy blast or whatever. Trying to get a number out of the ritual is just kinda pointless anyways. It was cut short, so we didn't see its full power, and it's explicitly noted as being weaker than the surface-level thought bomb ritual. Plus, as we know from other Legends material, Force users combining their powers is multiplicative and not additive, so you can't even divide it by the people present or whatever.

Verdict: Only with a ritual that involves a bunch of Sith joining power.

Well, since I just covered a number of "surface wiping feats," let's go back to my first post and gather together all the surface wiping Force user stuff, shall we?

• Palpatine's Force Storms - Even ignoring the WoG which says Palpatine can't make Force Storms of his own volition, they don't scale to his other abilities and are completely irrelevant in most combat scenarios. If he tried using one in a normal fight, he'd almost 100% kill himself with it just due to its sheer size and erratic nature. So it's only really good as some kind of weird suicide attack.
  
• Random unnamed Sith Sorceress's ritual - Requires an obelisk to be built and several centuries of prep time, so it obviously doesn't scale to her other abilities and is completely irrelevant in any combat scenario I can think of. Also, this killed her.
  
• Nihilus's Force Drain - Pointed out as being unique to him, clearly doesn't scale to his other abilities, and the "planet wiping range" of this power is completely irrelevant in most combat scenarios.
  
• Vitiate's first ritual - Requires eight thousand Sith Lords worth of sacrifies.
  
• Vitiate's Ziost feat - Still a ritual, even if he can activate it on his own now. Doesn't scale to his other abilities and the "planet wiping" trait of this ritual is completely irrelevant in most combat scenarios.
  
• Darth Bane's ritual - Requires planning and multiple Force users joining together (which we know is multiplicative and not additive, so no one involved can scale), so it's completely irrelevant in most combat scenarios.
  
• Thought bomb ritual - Same as above, except it's also a suicide attack.
  

Well, looking at it, it seems pretty consistent to me that you either need a lot of outside assistance or some sort of super special gimmick power which is completely irrelevant to combat to surface wipe in the Star Wars galaxy. To be clear here, when I say "combat" I'm talking about a 1v1 scenario you'd usually see on a battleboarding site.
So, yeah. Saying something like "Force users can surface wipe with some abilites" is technically true, but very dishonest and misleading, cause there's like... literally 3 Force users, Palps, Vitiate and Nihilus (talking about "mortals" here, not space gods or whatever) that you can argue can reliably surface wipe without any external help. Even then, they're not using raw Force power or telekinesis to do it, they're using super special gimmick powers that aren't really that relevant in a fight.
Oh, and let's talk about who those 3 are. Nihilus is literally a Dark Side aberration whose entire gimmick is that he can drain planets, and Vitiate and Palpatine have both been called the strongest Dark Side user ever. Trying to say whatever random Force user has surface wiping power cause Vitiate or Palpatine or Nihilus exist is just fucking stupid, especially cause they have to use special gimmicks to do so.
I feel like people get the wrong idea about what I'm trying to prove with debunking Legends shit. I'm not trying to say Legends is anemically weak or anything, I'm not trying to say it's the weakest setting in existence, I'm not trying to say Legends Jedi couldn't tear apart a soggy piece of paper. Legends Force users are still strong, they're just not strong like Dragon Ball Z characters are - their strength doesn't come from planet busting laser beams or whatever, it comes from stuff like powers that bypass conventional durability, mental manipulation, and other forms of "hax." I know every battleboarder wants their favorite series to be just like DBZ, but that just isn't how Star Wars is.

The Claim: CANON PALPATINE IS MFTL+++!!!!1!!

That is not a joke, people fucking believe this. I bet you weren't expecting to see canon wank make an appearance in this post, but I saw this and I just had to comment on it. It's even from The Rise of Skywalker, the movie where Palpatine is constrained to a giant mechanical baby chair for the majority of the run time.
Here's the calc and here's the quote used from the canon expanded novelization. He's apparently 2000 times faster than light because he sent his spirit to Exegol to inhabit his new clone body before the events of TROS. Cause y'know, he was a clone in that movie, they never actually explained that in the movie itself I don't think.
Yeah, this is sounding awfully familiar, isn't it? Gotta say, 2000 times FTL seems small when compared to the outlandish number for the equivalent feat from the other post. This is because the calc-er decided to go with a timeframe of 24 years, based on the first appearance of Snoke. This is actually pretty clever thinking, props to the guy who did this. But, if they had just read 1 sentence further, they would've known that Palpatine was in his clone body before his old one even hit the bottom of that giant shaft. It's written a little oddly, but it's pretty clear that's the implication - there's no mention of any time spent wandering space or whatever, just a straight jump from his old body dying to jolting awake in his new one.
So, does this make the feat even better since the timespan's shorter? Well, I think you can guess the answer - this is pretty clearly just him warping his spirit over to his clone body. I'm not going to repeat the same arguments I made for the other spirit warp feat, I'm just going to repeat that I don't understand why people use this kind of shit at all.
Like, if you go with the "hurtling through space for 24 years at 2000c" interpretation what do these people think was going on during all that time? Seriously, I have so many questions if we go with this version. Here's just a few:
Was Palpatine screaming and laughing evilly as his spirit shot through space at MFTL speeds? Was it instantaneous for him or did he feel every hour? Was he at risk of getting sucked into a black hole? Or hit with a supernova? Was he doing ghostly loop de loops around solar systems for kicks? Is it like the Google Chrome dinosaur game where you have to dodge cactuses and birds, but with celestial bodies? Did every asteroid he dodge give him 10 bonus points on his score? Would he get hurt if he slammed into an asteroid? Did he have to eat or sleep? Did he stop by Dex's Diner to pick up a wampa burger on the way to his clone body? Did he have to take bathroom breaks to spirit pee? Did he fly by Leia and Han's house to scare baby Kylo Ren in the cradle? Was that what made him evil? Was he really bored after year 10, or did he enjoy it the whole way through? Was he playing Mario Kart Tour on his Force spirit iPhone to pass the time? Or was he playing a more "old man" game, like solitaire or sudoku? Did he know where he was going? Did he need a map? Or did he have one memorized? Could he have run in with other Force spirits just floating around? Did he have an awkward conversation with ghost Obi-Wan or ghost Yoda? Did he have to then fight them on the spirit plane to keep them from warning Luke? Was it like an awesome extra-dimensional battle where they shot ghost lasers at each other? Oh, what if he took the wrong Force spirit exit and ended up on Naboo? Could he have possessed someone else, like something other than his clone body? Was there a wacky mixup where he accidentally ended up in the body of a Gungan cause his old man eyes mistook it for his clone body? Did he spend a month or two in that Gungan body because he grew attached to the previous owner's wife and kids and enjoyed being back on his home planet? Did he have to have awkward Gungan sex with the wife to keep up the charade? Did he see the effects of the wars he caused on the Gungans and start to feel bad and regret the whole Sith thing? Did he have to then remind himself what he was doing and throw himself down that big shaft in the Naboo power plant Darth Maul fell down so he could get his soul out again? Or did he just commit suicide by booma sling to the temple? Was he emotionally scarred after that? When he did get back to his clone body, did he send money to the Gungan family to make sure that they were being taken care of? Did he secretly deliver a present to the little Gungan children's doorstep on Life Day? Did they open the door just as he was able to flee down the corner? Did the children, still grieving their father's death, catch sight of the back of his robe and ask their mom who that old man was? Did she look wistfully after him, shaking her head and saying she didn't know, but that she felt there was something familiar about him?
Honestly, this should be a fucking Disney+ series, this sounds entertaining as hell. You could call it "Dude, Where's My Clone?" and appeal to the stoner demographic. Or, perhaps, go in a more dramatic direction: "Star Wars: Soul Searching." Any way you slice it, a galactic roadtrip with a senile Sith spirit sounds like it could be really fun. Get on it, Dave Filoni.
Anyways, I don't really get why people think Force spirits have to travel anywhere at all. Remember how Obi-Wan died on the Death Star, then his spirit showed up on Hoth in Empire? Was he like, already there? Did he know through the Force Luke would need him there in a few years and start jogging over at a brisk 20,000c at the end of the first movie? How about his trip from Hoth to Dagobah? Or over to the forest moon of Endor?
When Force spirits show up - you know, how they fade into a scene - is that them popping out of lightspeed? Yeah, I really don't think so, they can just teleport I'm pretty sure. Well, "teleport" is probably not the right word, but you know what I mean.
Oh, here's another question: what about projections? Like how Luke sent a Force projection over to Crait in Last Jedi. Was his projection moving MFTL to get there in time or something? Does that mean canon Luke has MFTL reactions too? I think Yoda did the same thing in Rebels or something. Does that mean...
Wait. I should stop giving these people ideas.

Verdict: lol no.

The Claim: "The ability to destroy a planet is insignificant next to the power of the Force."

Jesus Christ, what am I doing? Why do I have to make an argument against this? Why do people use this?
I bet you think this is some kind of joke, but no, I see people use this statement all the fucking time. Fucking Death Battle used it in a Q&A, oh God, shoot me please let this nightmare end, I pray for death every day and it never comes. Either people use the original version Vader said in the original Star Wars or the version from the Dark Empire endnotes which upgrades it to being an entire system instead of just a planet.
First off, I'd like to point out that the Dark Empire endnotes version of the statement isn't specifically being said about Palpatine. The wording is "he said this during the time when he served the Emperor," not "he specifically said this about the Emperor." This is like basic reading comprehension, I learned this shit in kindergarten, but people misread this shit all the time and say "yeah Vader was talking about the Emperor." No he wasn't, learn to read.
Second, I seriously don't think that the VSBW crowd that brings this line up have even watched Star Wars or understand it at all. I'm willing to bet most have only seen the Dark Empire version posted around and don't know that the line is from the movie.
I'm certain about this because there are much better lines to wank. Obi-Wan says that the Force "binds the galaxy together" in the original movie. Does VSBW not know about this? Of course they don't, the only Obi-Wan quotes they know are fucking unfunny prequel jokes. If they did know about it every single character would be a galaxy buster because "they can control the Force which is a galaxy-binding energy." It's not too far from how they jerk off Yarael Poof.
Here's the thing: the ability to destroy a planet is insignificant next to the power of the Force. We see this in the movie. Luke Skywalker was only able to destroy the Death Star after he accepted the Force and let it guide him during the trench run. If it weren't for the Force, he wouldn't have made the shot. The Force allows him to overcome the planet-destroying Death Star. At the risk of sounding pretentious, that's kinda the fucking point.
The Force is higher than material things, it's not just something Jedi use to lift things into the air, it's literally their religion. It's a religion for the Sith, too, that's why Darth Vader's saying that in that scene. It's the same thing as a Christian person saying "God is mightier than all."
Taking this claim at surface level is the exact same thing as taking Admiral Motti's claim about the Death Star being the "ultimate power in the universe" at surface level. Sorry VSBW, gonna have to slide Palpatine down from a multi solar system buster to a sub-planet buster, he can't be higher than the Death Star. Move Abeloth and Grandmaster Luke and the Mortis trio and everyone else down too. Motti just said that the Death Star, which can only bust planets, is the "ultimate" power in the universe, so nobody can be higher. I'm sorry, I don't make the rules.
You know, it probably seems like I've been going hard on Legends wank, but honestly it's quite the opposite. I've been generous. I've given this shit the benefit of the doubt at every opportunity, and not once in this post or the post before have I used the "this is just a statement" argument. Even though a lot of this shit is just fucking statements.
Jerec with the Valley of the Jedi being able to blow up solar systems? Just a statement, we never see this.
The Sith Meditation Sphere being able to blow up stars? Just a statement, we never see this, the only guide that says this recaps the story incorrectly. It was the Sith Corsair ship that blew up the star in the comic, not the Sphere.
Wutzek being able to blow up solar systems? Just a statement, we never see him do anything like this.
And this? This is the definition of "just a statement." If you use this scene to say Jedi can blow up planets, you are a fucking moron, full stop.

Verdict: Please, please, please fuck off with this shit.