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DKNG - Fundamental DD Part II - DKNG
Not Financial Advice (NFA) Warning: Wall of Text. If you hate reading just skim through the bolded/italicized Ever since I publicized my findings on DKNG, the stock has underperformed & probably has fucked a lot of people here, especially given the overly bullish stance back in June. Unless you took my advice & got into Puts then, congrats, welcome to tendie town. For the ADHD retards, here’s what the next wall of text is going to summarize: I believe at the current price of ~$30, the stock is oversold. A tech-focused, high-growth Company that has made sports betting easy to understand with an aesthetically pleasing interface similar to how Robinhood has neatly laid out stock market gimmicks so even high-schoolers can make sense of it I believe, is underpriced at these levels. Let’s get into some details as to why the stock has underperformed: First off, the news slate revolving sports with the rumored delay/cancellation of the MLB season & the NFL watching from the sidelines is in my view, just a part of why the stock has underperformed. We’ll revisit this later in this post, but I want to focus on the drivers of the stock’s recent underperformance, & why these factors are now in the rearview mirror. Part I – The Past Has Passed – SPAC-related Equity Dilution History lesson first: DKNG went public via a SPAC merger, which has exploded in popularity recently. Anyone serious about analyzing stocks going forward needs to do their homework on this, Google is your friend. A feature of most SPAC merger to public listings that creates a headwind to near-term share prices are embedded equity dilution events, usually in the form of earn-outs (stock bonuses to execs, the SPAC sponsor) & conversion of Warrants. On 5/24, the earn-outs were triggered, adding 6m shares to the share count. On 6/26, 16.3m warrants converted to DKNG, netting them ~$188m of cash. Stepping back a little, in addition to the above, on 6/18 DKNG launched a follow-on equity offering of 16M shares @ $40/Share [1], receiving $621M in proceeds. The last part is tricky to understand from a dilution perspective. To simplify, historically it’s almost a coin toss whether a Company’s shares outperform on the onset of an equity offering. While issuing shares does dilute the existing shareholder base, it theoretically shouldn’t, if the proceeds from the offering are earmarked for investments/projects that yield outsized returns. This is the reality for the long term, theory for the short-term. For the short-term, the ‘reality’ isn’t that the proceeds will be used for investments/projects that yield outsized returns, it is more about how convincing management is to investors that the investments they intend to pursue with the proceeds will outweigh the dilutive effects of issuing incremental shares. That’s a mouthful, but hopefully you get what I’m trying to convey. All of this stuff put together – the Company has increased its share count by ~39M, but now has a whopping ~$1.4Bn of cash [2]. More on this in the next section. Part II – MLB News Should Not Fucking Matter & DKNG Is Positioned As the Leading Online/Mobile Sports Platform DKNG should not be so tied to MLB news or any of this shit as the ongoing success of the NBA/NHL season + Soccer in Europe has effectively created a blueprint on how to regulate player behavior so that they maintain professionalism amidst the pandemic. I’m going out on a whim here, but I truly think the MLB threatening a cancellation of the season is pure posturing to get these fuckers to behave appropriately. Maybe a ‘bubble’ is what it takes to get these players to focus on their jobs instead of going out & contracting COVID, but I argue that isn’t necessarily required given Soccer in Europe. So there’s already a proven path here without the need for a bubble in Soccer, so MLB/NFL should be fine, and execs need to study how they got it done in Europe. Okay, back to some facts. Anecdotally, I’ve kept in touch with a handful of sports bookies from California to New York & even internationally about what they’re seeing – all of them say that since the NBA season started on 7/30 & since Soccer (especially the Premier League) resumed in June, along with other leagues like La Liga & Serie A, they’ve seen massive increases in betting. These numbers are also showing up in the official data [3]:
Average % increase in sports betting handle from April 2020 to June 2020 (handle is the total $ wagered in sports bets) from the states that reported up to June 2020 (NJ, PA, MS, RI, WV, IA, IN, NH) of +258%!
Note: NV is left out due to the site I sourced showing a weirdly negative number – so I dug into the official filings & show specifically, Sports Mobile betting growth from June since April has growing by at least +73% [4]
REMEMBER: This is for June only! No NBA, No NHL, No MLB, just Soccer, Golf, NASCAR & UFC. The data clearly shows that there was a ton of pent-up sports betting demand, which leads one Wall St. analyst to think that betting on the NBA/NHL could ABSORB the MLB’s sports betting handle (handle = total $ size of sports bet) [5]. Remember, the MLB season is still ongoing, with games being played. The entire focus is on the Miami Marlins & St. Louis Cardinals. Fucking retards. Additionally, I want to remind everyone that DraftKings.com is the #1 Fantasy sports website in the U.S. [6]. Also, since April 2020 site visitations are up +86% [7] & Google Search Trends for “Draft Kings” is up ~3xcompared to PRE-COVID levels [8]. What does this mean? They are piquing more people’s curiosity than prior to COVID/ongoing slate of sports. This is important because remember that ~$1.4Bn chest full of cash I mentioned DKNG had assembled earlier? Well, that money is being put to work & results are already coming in, which is exactly what DKNG intended to do with it. Part III – Legalization of Sports Betting in the U.S. I could write a fucking bible on this topic alone, but for now we’ll stick to some basics. Due to COVID, it’s easy to understand that each State’s financial situation is clearly in shit. Because of this, you better believe that these guys are going to start taking a hard look at how they can extract additional tax revenues, & what’s one of the easiest ways to do this? Legalization & taxation of gambling. The big players: CA, TX, FL & NY. First, CA pushing its legislation out to 2023 was fucked up, but here’s a twist I want to add to this: Anything that has to do with gambling in CA you better believe is lobbied against by not just the Tribal casino owners in CA, but by the deep pockets of Las Vegas money. Similar thing can be said for FL, but let’s take a look at some actions by LV/nationwide gambling companies that are starting to align financial incentives with guys like DKNG.
MGM / GVC Holdings JV in BetMGM - $450m total invested
PENN invests $163m into BS Sports
Caesars has a 20% stake in William Hill plus partnership deals with The Stars Group (TSG) & our winner DKNG for operating its sports books
So it’s safe to say going forward, nationwide legalization of sports betting will reap rewards for everyone involved, & no longer be something LV money is completely focused on safeguarding. Let’s also not forget that DKNG didn’t become the Company they are today because of their fancy app, but because their management team has a HISTORY of navigating the U.S.’s legal framework to get what they want out of it.
The Crown Jewel – The Internet Gambling Prohibition & Enforcement Act: I said it in a previous post, but I want to emphasize that them getting Fantasy Sports to be labeled a ‘game of skill’ by FEDERAL Law as opposed to gambling is just something for the history books. Fucking genius shit. When this happened I bet every casino from LV to every Indian Tribe that has one was against it, yet DKNG & other DFS providers won.
There’s more, but more recently: Getting into IL:
In IL, there’s an 18-month ‘penalty box’ for Companies that offer DFS to offer sports betting. Our guys at DKNG created a workaround to this situation with their partnership with Casino Queen [9]. DKNG being savvy again.
https://preview.redd.it/it6vqxvxzci51.jpg?width=900&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d5ba4c7f80a1439c4283f4b30e3514629fcf504b Now that we have passed the opt-out deadline and are only about three weeks away from the Chiefs and Texans kicking off the 2020 NFL season, I wanted to put together my pre-season power rankings and put all 32 teams in separate tiers, to give you an idea of where I see them at this point. When putting together this list, I considered the talent on the roster, coaching staff and what will be a more important factor coming into this season than it has been in previous – the continuity as a franchise, since the COVID situation has limited the amount of preparation and ability to build chemistry as a team. That will be especially tough for new head coaches and inexperienced teams. With that being said, this is how I would group them:
Super Bowl contenders:
This group of four represents what I think are the four elite teams in the NFL. They all feature complete rosters, excellent coaching and continuity as a franchise. I think these are the franchises that will most likely square up against each other in the conference championship games on either side of the bracket. 1. Kansas City Chiefs We have heard this many times over the course of the offseason – the reigning Super Bowl champs bring back 20 of 22 starters (actually 19 now) on offense and defense combined. They have the best player in the league, the most dangerous receiving corp, above-average O-line play and a still improving defense, that just added some much-needed speed at the second level, which will allow DC Steve Spagnuolo to even more versatile. So at this point I can not have anybody unseat them. I think Clyde Edwards-Helaire (LSU) will be a star in that offense, they get a couple of guys back that missed their playoff run and there are plenty of young, developing players on that roster. What general manager Brett Veach has done this offseason in terms of securing Patrick Mahomes for the next decade and still opening up cap room to also sign their best defensive player in Chris Jones is amazing to me. My only two concerns for Kansas City at this point are a lack of depth in the secondary and the fact they will have to go on the road when they face the four best teams on their schedule – Baltimore, Buffalo, Tampa Bay and New Orleans, which has me favoring the second team on my list for the number one seed in the AFC and which this year means having one more game in the playoffs on their road to another Super Bowl for Andy Reid’s troops. 2. Baltimore Ravens Right behind the Chiefs, as the biggest competitor for the AFC is Baltimore. They were the best team in the regular season from this past year, but the Titans handed them only their third loss of the season in the Divisional Round at home. While they did lose what to me is a first-ballot Hall of Fame guard in Marshal Yanda, outside of that the Ravens to me have an even better roster. The reigning MVP Lamar Jackson is only entering his third season in the league, the Ravens just added a top prospect in J.K. Dobbins (Ohio State) to a backfield that set a league-record in rushing yards and some of these young receivers will continue to develop. On defense, they addressed the two areas that needed some help, when they brought in Calais Campbell to boost their pass-rush and two top-six linebackers on my board in the draft (Patrick Queen & Malik Harrison). They may not have as many superstar names as some other teams, but without a full offseason to prepare for it, that Greg Roman offense could be even tougher to stop if Marquise Brown becomes a more dependable deep threat (now fully healthy) and I love how multiple Wink Martindale is with his defense, combining the different pressure looks to go along with more versatile pieces up front and one of the elite secondaries in the game. You combine that with a rising young special teams coordinator in Chris Horton and a great motivator and in-game decision-maker in John Harbaugh – I just can’t find a lot of L’s on their schedule. 3. San Francisco 49ers Obviously the Super Bowl hangover will be brought up a lot of times with the loser of that contest, but unlike a lot of these teams coming off the big game – yet similar to the actual winners in the Chiefs – John Lynch did a great job re-tooling for the few losses they did have and didn’t overspend on some of their talented guys. Kyle Shanahan to me is the best offensive play-caller and game-designer in football, with a diverse rushing attack and the type of personnel to match it, while Jimmy G, despite some issues, is coming off his first 16-game season in his career. Defensively, they are losing what I thought was their best player in DeForest Buckner, but they did replace him with a top ten prospect in Javon Kinlaw (South Carolina) and Fred Warner is an emerging superstar. Their Seattle-based scheme under Robert Salah may not be very complex, but the Niners have a ferocious pass-rush, fast-flowing linebackers and a great safety tandem to be very sound in their execution. The Deebo Samuel injury is definitely a concern for me and if he doesn’t get back a few weeks into the season, I might drop San Fran a spot or two, plus I don’t love what they have at that second cornerback spot, but as for now I see the recipe that made me predict them winning the NFC West ahead of 2019 and what allowed them to be up double-digits in the fourth quarter of the Super Bowl. 4. New Orleans Saints One of the themes this offseason for me has been how loaded this Saints roster is and that they just need to win this year. This is the final season with Drew Brees at the helm, they are already in a horrible place with the cap – before that even goes down in 2021 – and to be honest, a lot of their key contributors are getting pretty old now. While I have seen a significant drop-off in the arm-strength of Brees, other than that I don’t see any offense with this Sean Payton-led offense – the front-five is elite, Alvin Kamara should be back to 100 percent as a dynamic dual-threat back and they finally found a number two receiver in Emmanuel Sanders. When healthy, that defensive line is a dominant unit, I think third-round pick Zack Baun (Wisconsin) gives that linebacker group some versatility and they have a lot of experience in the secondary, including a guy I thought would be a future star on the outside in Marshon Lattimore. Before anything else, they need to take care of divisional-rival Tampa Bay – which is a very tough challenge already – but if they can do that, they are fairly in the hunt for the NFC’s top seed. There’s a lot of pressure on this group because of the cap situation, their all-time great QB having his “Last Dance” and brutal playoff losses in recent years, but they have all it takes to finally break through all the way.
Playoff contenders:
This second tier consists of eight teams that to me have only or two holes on their roster, while their coaching gives them an advantage over the majority of teams in the league and they bring back most of their pieces from a year or at least improved in those areas. I expect all but one of these squads to make the playoffs in 2020, as long as they don’t suffer significant injuries along the way. 5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Number five in the entire league seems pretty high for a team that finished below .500 last season, but this is not just about Tom Brady coming in, but rather the roster Tampa Bay has built around him. To me Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are the top receiver duo in the league, the Bucs arguably have the best tight-end room in the league and the offensive line only got better with superhuman Tristan Wirfs (Iowa) playing one of those spots on the right side. I have talked about this a lot over the offseason, looking at the match between Bruce Arians’ vertical-based passing attack and what Brady is used to, in terms of spreading the field and getting the ball out of his hands quickly. My bet is they go to a bit of hybrid and figure things out. Maybe more importantly, I don’t think people realize what they have put together on defense. Last season the Bucs finished number one against the run, they forced the fifth-most turnovers (28) and tied for sixth with yards per play (5.1) in the league. Todd Bowles is excellent defensive mind, who now enters his second season with as much talent as he has had since his Arizona days. Jameis turned it over 35 times last year (12 more than any other player in the league), while Tom didn’t even crack double-digits once again, and he immediately improves their situational football awareness and overall execution. This is a very dangerous squad. 6. Dallas Cowboys When you talk about some of the most talented rosters in the league, the Dallas Cowboys come to mind right away – especially on the offensive side of the ball. Dak Prescott now has one of the premiere receiver trios with the selection of Ceedee Lamb (Oklahoma) in the draft, still probably a top-five offensive line and Zeke looking to re-establish himself as a top-tier back, after looking a step slow for most of last season. Defensively they are getting back Leighton Vander Esch, whose energy they desperately missed for stretches last season, and they have a very deep rotation at the defensive line (even though nobody knows what we’ll get from a couple of guys that were out of the league), while Mike Nolan will change things up a little more and get his guys into the face of opposing receivers. We have yet to see how much Mike McCarthy will want to have say in the offensive play-calling, but I like that they retained a young and creative OC in Kellen Moore, and as far as in-game control and CEO duties go, I certainly believe McCarthy is an upgrade. There are some questions with the secondary after the loss of Byron Jones and losing Travis Frederick to retirement hurts, but I think those are things that can be overcome. Something that I think should not be overlooked is the signing of former Rams kicker Greg Zuerlein and his special teams coordinator John Fassel, after converting only 75 percent of their field goal attempts last season (6th-lowest in the league) and missing a couple of crucial kicks. 7. Philadelphia Eagles Right behind the Cowboys, I have their division rivals from Philadelphia. I think the Eagles actually have a better quarterback, the best defensive player among the two teams in Fletcher Cox and a more experienced secondary. However, with Brandon Brooks out for the season and maybe the worst group of linebackers in the NFL, I could not put this group ahead of Dallas, even though they have come up victorious against them in the big games recently. Last year Carson Wentz carried a group of skill-position players from the practice squad and a banged-up O-line to a division title. This upcoming season he will go from already wasn’t an overly dynamic receiving crew to a group of track stars, most notably with first-round pick Jalen Reagor (TCU) and a hopefully healthy DeSean Jackson, plus Miles Sanders I think is ready to emerge as a star back for Philly. The defense did lose some long-time stalwarts like Malcolm Jenkins and Nigel Bradham, but I loved the addition of Javon Hargreave in the middle to free up the other guys to attack upfield and with Darius Slay as their new CB1, not only does that move everybody one spot lower on the depth chart, but it also finally makes more sense for Jim Schwartz to be as aggressive with those zero-blitzes, since he has the guys to cover. Those two newcomers also fit perfectly when matching up against Dallas, because of an improvement interior run defense and having a guy who can match up with Amari Cooper, after the other guys got toasted for the most part. 8. Buffalo Bills For the first time in about twenty years, a team not named the Patriots will enter a season as favorites in the AFC East – and it’s actually not that close for me. Buffalo made a switch last season offensively to more 11 personnel and quick-tempo with Brian Daboll moving to the booth. This offseason they finally got the big-armed Josh Allen a dependable deep threat in Stefon Diggs, who averaged 12.0 yards per target last season (second-highest in the league), which – similar to what I just talked about with the corners in Philadelphia – moves everybody else down one spot in the food chain. And I love what they do defensively, with Sean McDermott and Leslie Frazier’s game-plan specific zone pattern coverages, with a versatile secondary to execute those, to go with a deep D-line and two super-rangy linebackers. Even outside the Diggs trade, Buffalo has made some sneaky-good deals since losing that Wildcard game at Houston in such heart-breaking fashion. Whether that is Mario Addison as double-digit sack guy in four straight years, added depth on the O-line or a really solid draft class to complement what they already had. I don’t want to crown them at this point, but to me they are the favorites for the AFC’s number three seed as for right now, since I think the South doesn’t have that clear front-runner to win the majority of their divisional games. 9. Seattle Seahawks I would have probably had the Hawks as the final team of this group or right at the top of the next one a couple of weeks ago, but after acquiring Jamal Adams, I think they have re-established themselves as that second team in the NFC West, since I had them very close with Arizona originally, I did not love what they did in the first two days of the draft (somewhat of a trend with them), they lost their second-best defensive player at that point in Jadeveon Clowney, I’m not sure if they upgraded on the offensive line and we don’t even if know if Quinton Dunbar will be suspended at this point. With that being said, Seattle has finished above .500 every single year with Russell Wilson under center and while I’m not a fan of their conservative approach offensively, where they don’t allow Russ to throw the ball on first downs and push the tempo a little at times, they are one of the most effective rushing teams and they have two lethal weapons to catch those trademark rainbow balls from the Seahawks QB. Defensively there are still some questions about the edge rush and at second corner spot, but Pete Carroll at least has what he wants most in a team at those positions – competition – and you already saw them go to more two-high looks in coverage than we are used to, telling me they utilize Jamal’s versatile skill-set more than what that strong safety mostly does in that system. 10. Green Bay Packers The whole Aaron Rodgers-Jordan Love drama has been looming large over the offseason and that has brought us some interesting discussions, but let’s not allow this to take away from the fact Green Bay just had a first-round bye in the playoffs and made it to the NFC title game. While they were 8-1 in one-score games and should regress more towards the mean in terms of the success rate in those close games, the North is still wide open and they have a few things going for themselves – they have the best quarterback in the division, the best offensive line, the most versatile and effective pass rush and a lot of young talent in the secondary. The first-round selection of a future signal-caller aside, I wasn’t too fond of what they did in the draft. Even though I liked Cincinnati’s Josiah Deguara and can see what they want to do with him as H-back/move guy in this offense, I thought they did not get Aaron Rodgers help in the receiving corp, which has no proven commodity outside of Davante Adams. Their defense got absolutely steamrolled in two games against the eventual conference champion 49ers, but I hope to see Rashan Gary develop in his second season and I think Christian Kirksey was a very under-the-radar signing as a run-stopping linebacker. I think schematically with Matt LaFleur’s offense based on what they did under Sean McVay and Mike Pettine being very creative himself they are one of the better coaching staffs in the NFC, but I would like to see them open up the offense more for Rodgers and break tendencies more often with their coverage calls. 11. Pittsburgh Steelers Another very dangerous squad for me is the Steelers. I have talked many times about how bad the Steelers quarterback situations was last season, as both Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges finished near the bottom in air yards per attempt, percentage of throws beyond the marker and many others. We have only seen Big Ben throw in some short clips on the internet, but if he is just 70-80 percent of what he was in 2018, this team is bound for a playoff berth. There are some question marks with this group of skill-position players, but I expect Juju to bounce back in a major way with a capable QB and being healthy himself, I have already picked Diontae Johnson as a breakout candidate for this season and I like the diversity of this group of backs. Pittsburgh’s defense was already elite last year, finishing top five in both yards and points allowed, tied for first in yards per play (4.7), the most takeaways (38) and sacks (54). If former Raven Chris Wormley can replace Javon Hargreave as a two-down run-stopper at least and rookie Antoine Brooks Jr. (Maryland) can fill a very specific role as their second sub-package linebacker in place of Mark Barron, I think they will one of the scariest units in the NFL once again. So the best all-around defense for my money and an offense who I would say has top ten potential at the very least is a tough match-up. Maybe not quite battling with the Ravens for the North, but the top Wildcard spot for sure. 12. Indianapolis Colts If there is one team in the AFC that could go from finishing sub-.500 to making it all the way to the conference championship game, the Colts would be my pick. I thought Philip Rivers had a really rough 2019 campaign, in which his arm looked rather weak and his decision-making hurt the Chargers on multiple occasions, but he will play behind by far the best offensive line he has ever had and they will run the heck out of the ball. Indy already had a pretty good back in Marlon Mack, but Wisconsin superstar Jonathan Taylor, who they selected in the second round, will be one of the front-runners for Offensive Rookie of the Year if given the chances in combination with what I believe is the best front-five in the entire league, plus their other second-rounder Michael Pittman Jr. (USC) will be that Vincent Jackson/Mike Williams type target for Rivers. More importantly, with the trade for a top 50 player in the league in DeForest Buckner, this entire Colts D immediately takes a step forward, since he is a perfect fit as that 3-technique in their front and help them disrupt plays at a much higher rate, to go with range in zone coverage behind that, including the “Maniac” Darius Leonard chasing people down. I’m a big fan of Frank Reich and the coaching staff he is has put together, in terms of in-game decision-making, offensive gameplans and just the intensity his team plays him.
Fringe playoff teams:
This middle tier is made up from all those teams who I expect to be at .500 or above, firmly in contention for a Wildcard spot at least. They can be some areas of concern, but overall they have the roster ready to compete with the big dogs and/or feature above-average coaching. With a couple of these there is a change at quarterback and head coach respectively, but they have enough around those to overcome that. 13. Tennessee Titans This definitely seems a little low for a team that is coming off an AFC Championship game appearance, but people seem to forget the Titans were 8-7 ahead of week 17 and if it wasn’t for the Steelers losing their final three games, this group wouldn’t have even been in position to lock down the six seed. Things were also made a lot easier by their division rival Texans, who sat most of their starters after beating Tennessee two weeks prior. So as impressive as their playoff run was, you have to think of what happened before that and put it into perspective a little. With one more playoff spot in each conference, their chances of making it to the tournament should be at least equally as good, but I believe the Colts are the favorites to win the South and for me the Steelers are the favorites for the fifth seed. With all that being said, there is plenty to like about this team still – they can pound you with the Derrick Henry and the run game, Ryan Tannehill at least gives them the threat of pulling the ball and going deep off play-action, they have some young weapons catching the ball and defensively they are very versatile in how they set up gameplans. I also like the mind-set Mike Vrabel installs in these guys and I was impressed with what OC Arthur Smith did in 2019. If there are two spots that could decide if this group is fighting for a division title or that final playoff berth, it will be their rookie right tackle Isaiah Wilson (Georgia) and recently signed edge rusher Vic Beasley. 14. Cleveland Browns While I don’t see them competing for the AFC North – just because of how loaded the Ravens are – the Browns are pretty clearly the most talented team that is considered to be third in their division. In terms of their group of starting skill-position players at least, they are near the top of the NFL, the O-line to me already just made my top ten ranking with room to move up, if healthy they are at least in the conversation for that with the D-line as well, with a Defensive Player of the Year candidate in Myles Garrett, and I like how they have assembled their secondary. Now, they have some unproven guys at the linebacker level and Cleveland’s potential is largely dependent on which Baker Mayfield we will get. With Kevin Stefanski coming and installing an offense that will be built on the zone run game and bootlegs off that, where his quarterback is put on the move, I could see much more efficient play and more comfort in that system. Something that really jumped out to me on tape was how many times Baker seemed to not be “on the same page” with his receivers, expecting routes to break off differently and unfortunate drops in certain situations. Even though the preparation for the season does look a lot different and QB & WRs haven’t been able to spend too much time together, I expect this to improve and more suitable roles for those pass-catchers overall. And if they are ahead in more games, that pass rush will be a problem. 15. Arizona Cardinals There are certainly still some issues here, but the Cardinals are probably the most exciting young team in all of the NFL. Kyler Murray was a one-man show last season and is due for a big jump, with DeAndre Hopkins being added to a receiving corp that severely lacked dependable weapons, to go with some other youngsters fully healthy, Kenyan Drake looked like a different player once he came over from Miami and the O-line should at least be marginally better. Defensively they transitioned a little up front, with big gap-pluggers on the line and Isaiah Simmons being that ultra-rangy player on the second level, who can run guys down on the edges, if those ball-carriers forced to bounce outside, plus they have maybe the most underappreciated edge rusher over the last four years in Chandler Jones. I don’t think they are very deep in the secondary, but Budda Baker is an absolute baller, Jalen Thompson emerged late last season and I already predicted Byron Murphy would have a breakout second season. With Kliff Kingsbury and Vance Joseph, Arizona has creative play-calling on both sides of the ball and they now have the personnel to execute at the needed level as well. Like I mentioned, I was ready to have the Cardinals at least go toe-to-toe with Seattle for a playoff spot, but the addition of Jamal Adams has shifted the balance again to some degree. And if you just go based off my rankings, two NFC Wildcard spots already go to teams from five to seven. 16. Denver Broncos A team that has been getting a lot of love this offseason is the Broncos. They have pretty much all the pieces that you usually see with those rising squads – a promising second-year quarterback with a lot of weapons surrounding him, a ferocious defensive front and having shown signs late last season. My belief in them has taken a bit of a dump unfortunately since I thought they did well to improve the offensive line, with Garrett Bolles on the left end being the only weak-spot, but now that Ja’Wuan James won’t be available at right tackle for the second straight year (injury last season and now opting out), their duo of OTs is a concern for me. Defensively you have to love what they have in the front seven, with Von Miller and now again Bradley Chubb coming off the edges, Jurrell Casey added to the interior to go with Shelby Harris and Alexander Johnson being an under-the-radar standout at linebacker. I’ve always been a big fan of Justin Simmons, but that second corner spot is still up in the air. I like Vic Fangio and that coaching staff they have put together in Denver, with Pat Shurmur providing a QB-friendly offense, the game’s best O-line coach in Mike Munchak and most of the people that have helped Fangio put out elite defenses at multiple stops before. So the Broncos are still the most dangerous opponent of the Chiefs in the AFC West, but now I’m not sure if they can add some drama over the fourth quarter of the season. 17. Minnesota Vikings At the same time, a team that has been a little overhyped to me this offseason is Minnesota. While I don’t love how the Packers have operated since February, what have the Vikings done to really improve? They traded away the best deep threat in the league last season in Stefon Diggs, stalwarts on the D-line in Everson Griffen and Linval Joseph are now gone, their entire group of corners has combined for less than 1500 career snaps and their offensive coordinator is now in Cleveland. I’m intrigued by the combination of Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson, who could be pretty interchangeable in their roles and I like their 12 and 21 personnel groupings, but they lack depth at the receiver position. And the defense will be relying on several inexperienced pieces to step in. I mean their three starting corners from last year are off the team now. So I don’t really get how most people all of a sudden put them ahead of the Packers. With that being said, I like the offensive scheme and always thought Gary Kubiak was a huge factor in their success on the ground at least. On defense there are certainly question marks – especially in the secondary – but Minnesota could easily have a top five player at their respective position at all three levels, with Danielle Hunter, Eric Kendricks and Anthony Harris, plus they still have some promising young guys like Ifeadi Odenigbo, Mike Hughes and a deep rookie class. Their only true shade nose Michael Pierce opting out hurts though. 18. New England Patriots This offseason must have been a rollercoaster for Patriots fans. First, Tom Brady leaves and everybody goes crazy. Then people start getting onto the Jarrett Stidham hype train and talk about how good the rest of this team still is. Out of nowhere they sign Cam Newton for the veteran minimum basically and they are back in the conversation for the top teams in the AFC all of sudden. And now, they lead the league in players opting out of the season, with key defensive pieces like Dont’a Hightower and Patrick Chung, to go with a couple of role players on offense at least. So now they are right at the bottom of these fringe playoff teams for me, because purely based on the roster, they are not even in the top 20 league-wide, but they still have maybe the greatest defensive mind in NFL history in Bill Belichick and one of the best offensive play-callers right now in Josh McDaniels. Obviously a lot of this will come down to what version of Cam Newton we will get and even if he is and can stay totally healthy. Not only is New England the most adaptable team in terms of how they can adjust to personnel and how flexible they are with their game-plans, but Cam is a great fit in that offense, where he can spread the field and make decisions based on defenses adjusting. The one area that took the biggest bump – outside of quarterback I’m guessing – is the offensive line, because they lost a legendary position coach in Dante Scarnecchia and their probable starter at right tackle in Marcus Cannon. While the Pats do have some young players, who can replace part of the losses, they were already more in plan for the pieces that left before there was any virus outbreak.
Around .500:
This broad group of seven teams represents all those franchises who will be dancing around .500 mark in the win-loss column. A couple of teams have the potential to win nine or ten games, while others could see those numbers on the wrong side of the column as well. There are obvious question marks in certain areas, even though they might feature top-tier players and/or coaches. 19. Houston Texans It’s kind of tough to put a team here that has won its division the last two years, but I think the Texans are pretty clearly number three in the South now. I love Deshaun Watson and I think he has fairly established himself as a top five quarterback in the NFL, but Bill O’Brien just took away an elite wide receiver in DeAndre Hopkins and replaced him with an injury-prone Brandin Cooks to go with another always banged up Will Fuller and a declining Randall Cobb, to go with a David Johnson in the backfield, who was unrecognizable last season. I think the O-line is improving, but outside of Laremy Tunsil maybe, they don’t have anybody other than Deshaun who is clearly above-average in their role. And defensively they finished in the bottom five in yards allowed and tied with Cincinnati (who picked first overall in the draft) for an NFL-high 6.1 yards allowed per play. Hopefully having J.J. Watt back for a full season should help, I like the selection of Ross Blacklock (TCU) on the inside and there are some talented young corners on this roster, who could be better much in 2020. I would not be surprised if they are that .500 team at heart and their quarterback carried them to a couple of wins that they weren’t supposed to get – which we have seen him do many times before – but it’s more likely to me that they are fighting for one of the two bottom Wildcard spots. 20. Atlanta Falcons Very rarely do you have a team that was among the worst over the first half of the season and among the best over the second half. The Falcons started out 2019 with a 1-7 record, but would go on to win six of the final eight games. Their defense was absolutely atrocious early on last season, with no pass-rush impacting the opposing quarterback and several miscues in coverage. With Raheem Morris taking over the defensive play-calling, they showed a lot of improvement already and there are signs that trend will continue. While there are some questions about the back-end and if they can get consistent production from their rush outside the top two guys, I think Dante Fowler is an upgrade over Vic Beasley, I like Marlon Davidson (Auburn) as a guy with inside-out flexibility on sub-packages and Keanu Neal is back healthy, as that Kam Chancellor-type, who can be that extra defender in the box in their system and punish receivers when catching the ball over the middle or in the flats. Offensively I believe this is still a team that can move the ball – they just have to start doing so earlier in games. While the top NFL receiver duo is in their own division with the guys in Tampa Bay, Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley could easily be that next one. They lost a very productive tight-end in Austin Hooper, but I believe Hayden Hurst can replace at least 80 percent of that production, and while we have no idea what we get from Todd Gurley and his knees at this point, last year the Falcons had one of the least effective per-touch backs in Devonta Freeman. Plus, the O-line should take a step forward with former first-round pick Chris Lindstrom returning from injury. 21. Las Vegas Raiders To me the Raiders are still in transition, not only moving to Las Vegas, but also in terms of roster construction and the culture Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock are trying to establish. Outside of Tyrell Williams, that entire group of receivers was overhauled, they have a lot of young pieces on the defensive line and the secondary, plus they will have at least two new starters on the second level of their defense. By far the biggest thing they have going for them is the offensive line and second-year back Josh Jacobs running behind it. When I did my top ten offensive lines in the NFL a couple of weeks ago, I had the Silver & Black at number five, and Jacobs was already a top 100 player in the league for me, with how physical and elusive a runner as he is. I could easily see the Raiders finish near the top in terms of ground production, and I also like the young guys they brought in around that, with Henry Ruggs III (Alabama) keeping the defense honest with his speed, Bryan Edwards (South Carolina) as a physical receiver, who will get hands after the catch, and Lynn Bowden Jr. (Kentucky) as that chess-piece potentially, that you can use in a multitude of way. My bigger question here is if Derek Carr is willing to push the ball down the field. Defensively I like the rotation they have on the interior D-line and the two linebackers they brought in via free agency, most notably Corey Littleton. There are still some questions about how snaps will be split between their corner group, but I’m excited to see a full season of Jonathan Abram hopefully. These guys have some attitude and an energetic head coach. 22. Los Angeles Rams Oh, how far we have come. Just one-and-a-half years ago the Rams were officially 20 spots higher basically, when they lost the Super Bowl to New England. Ahead of last season, I predicted them to miss the playoffs and while they made a bit of a run at it late, that’s what ended up happening. Now I see them as the fourth team in their own division – even though that says more about the competition they face rather than them. I still believe in Sean McVay and his ability to win on paper with play-design and game-planning, but Jared Goff has turned out to be an average quarterback, they don’t have a prime Todd Gurley setting the table anymore and the offensive line had some major issues, for large stretches of last season, especially in the run game. I was very high on Cam Akers, who they selected in the second round out of Florida State, but he will obviously be a rookie with shortened preparation, rather than an Offensive Player of the Year like Gurley was for them. Defensively, they have two elite players in Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey and I like some of the other guys in their roles, but overall the high-end talent beyond the two biggest names isn’t overly impressive. Leonard Floyd might be their top edge rusher and he has always been more of a Robin, they have no proven commodity as stand-up linebacker and I have yet to see if Brandon Staley can actually be an upgrade over Wade Phillips as their defensive coordinator. 23. Detroit Lions While I was going back and forth with putting the Lions third or fourth in the NFC North, I recently said they are among the top two teams that could go from worst to first in their division and I would not be surprised if they were in the hunt for a Wildcard spot in the last couple of weeks of the season. His second year in a system under Darrell Bevell – where he wasn’t just going in shotgun 40 times a game and asked to make magic happen – Matthew Stafford looked like an MVP candidate as long as he was healthy in 2019. That duo of Kerryon Johnson and my top-ranked running back in the draft D’Andre Swift (Georgia) could be one of the most dynamic ones in the league, the receiving corp is highly underrated and I like those rookies competing for the two guard spots. Defensively, they seem to finally look like what Matt Patricia wanted, when he came over from New England, in terms being versatile with their fronts and having guys who can take on receivers in man-coverage. With that being said, there is also a good chance that the Patricia experiment could go to shambles, if some of the veterans get turned off by his style of coaching without having established that winning culture, and this team has simply been dealing with too many injuries to key players. I don’t think there is much of a gap between the Lions and Vikings for example, but Detroit has not shown the stability of some other organizations. 24. Chicago Bears A franchise that I don’t really hear anybody talk about – unless it’s their quarterback competition – is that team from the Windy City. I understand that the Bears aren’t really sexy because they lack those superstars on offense that people will recognize, but I’m higher on some of the guys they do have on that side of the ball and on defense they could be much closer to 2018, when they led the league in points allowed and turnovers forced, rather than being just inside the top in most categories last season. A guy I already predicted to break out for Chicago this upcoming season with a bigger workload is running back David Montgomery, to go with Anthony Miller as a gadget player and developing young pass-catcher and one of the more underappreciated receivers out there in Allen Robinson. Defensively, I thought the biggest issue last season was Akiem Hicks missing double-digit games, as a table-setter with his ability to disrupt plays from the interior, and Leonard Floyd didn’t provide much on the opposite side of Khalil Mack, who they upgrade from with Robert Quinn, who just had his best season since the Rams were still in St. Louis. Now, I don’t love what they have at that second safety spot to complement Eddie Jackson, someone will have to fill that second corner spot – even though I’m a fan of second-round pick Jaylon Johnson (Utah) – and nose tackle Eddie Goldman opting out is a huge loss. If the quarterback position can just complement the rushing attack and the defense plays up to their potential, this group could be competing for second in the North, but Foles or Trubisky could still hold them back. https://preview.redd.it/aep6uj385di51.png?width=1060&format=png&auto=webp&s=07674898e4de7d73699c065907983e69612c56a4 The final tier is in the comments!! If you enjoyed this breakdown, I would really appreciate if you could visit the original piece - https://halilsrealfootballtalk.com/2020/08/18/ranking-all-32-nfl-teams-in-tiers-pre-season/ You can also listen to my analysis on the Youtube channel - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zz7WE0epZw8
Last week I detailed how I expect the Dolphins to easily clear $100 million in spendable salary cap space heading into free agency, even after considering the monumental effective cap cost of our rookie pool for the draft. This week, I’m going to examine free agency options at the positions addressed and who I expect our major targets to be. Unlike last year, I’m not going to focus very much on our own impending free agents this time around. I addressed the very few free agents I expect to return this year in last week’s segment, so this piece will be almost exclusively focused on free agent targets across positions of need. Additionally, because we are still so far out from the draft and because I expect we will try to address as many holes as possible first through free agency so that we’re not pidgeon-holed into selecting specific positions in the draft, I’m not going to dive too far into the draft except in a few circumstances. For those who haven’t been keeping up with the series and would like to catch up, see the links below:
Like we covered last week, our needs on offensive should be readily apparent to anyone even remotely following the Dolphins. Ignore the talking heads who bafflingly keep trying to speak the Dolphins drafting a wide receiver in the first round into existence. That won’t happen barring some stunning fall like how Laremy Tunsil fell into our laps a few years ago. The Dolphins badly need to find a quarterback of the future, an offensive line to protect him, and a running back to share the load with him. That’s not necessarily the order I see those positions being prioritized in free agency, though. As mentioned in replies to last week’s post, I expect that our free agency efforts will be heavily focused on building in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Before I get into free agents I expect that our front office tries to prioritize, I’ll go through free agents, position by position. All rankings are from PFF, which, while not perfect, tend to be pretty accurate in the aggregate over a season.
Quarterback
2020 is shaping up to be a very strange year at quarterback. There’s a lot of big names potentially available here, and that’s going to cause talking heads to have a lot of controversial and “bold” takes, such as all the suggestions we’ve seen that Tom Brady will come to Miami. It’s not going to happen. There’s very little reason to believe that we make any free agency moves at the quarterback position. Ryan Fitzpatrick is under contract for $8 million in 2020 and we only save $4 million by cutting him. However, as discussed, the signing of Chan Gailey as our offensive coordinator makes a commitment to Fitzpatrick abundantly clear. We also save no money by cutting Josh Rosen since, as a former first-round selection, his base salary is entirely guaranteed. I expect that we’ll add a third quarterback to the team in the draft, but I don’t see us being remotely active at the position in free agency. Make no mistake, though. The quarterback landscape across the NFL looks to be very different in 2020. Free agents include Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Case Keenum, Teddy Bridgewater, Ryan Tannehill, Jameis Winston, and Marcus Mariota. Every single one of those players started multiple games for their current teams in 2019. Brees likely returns to New Orleans, Tannehill will almost certainly be tagged, and Winston may as well. I’d have to bet that Brady returns to the Patriots, especially now that they’re retaining McDaniels as offensive coordinator, but it’s unclear how that shakes out. Eli Manning probably retires unless a team stuns the world to give him the starting job somewhere. That still leaves Rivers, Keenum, Bridgewater, and Mariota up in the air, and that’s before potential cuts or trades for guys like Cam Newton and Derek Carr who could shake up the market further. The biggest way that free agency at quarterback impacts the Dolphins is how it informs the decisions of other teams in the draft. Of particular concern are the Chargers (6), Panthers (7), Jaguars (9), Raiders (12, 19), and Colts (13). The Chargers, Panthers, and Raiders are in the best position to have the draft capital to leap the Dolphins. The Raiders can cut or trade Derek Carr and save $16.5 million in 2020. In a trade, Carr would be on a three-year deal at $19 million, $19,625,000, and $19,777,519 over the next three years. That said, I’m not sure that the Raiders actually move on from Carr. Last year he had a career high 70.4% completion percentage, 21 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, a passer rating of 100.8, and an ANY/A of 7.25. Those are respectable numbers, and rather than using multiple mid-firsts to trade up to the top of the draft, I have to imagine Gruden likes his chances to use their two firsts and three thirds and $50 million in cap space to retool their roster rather than commit to starting over with a rookie quarterback in his third year as head coach. With a ten year contract, though, he has more security than most to make a dramatic move now. The Panthers are almost certain to move on from Cam Newton in 2020 under their new head coach Matt Rhule. Reports are that they want to trade Newton, who would carry a $19.1 million cap charge for another team in 2020 and save the Panthers just as much. I don’t expect that the trade market for Newton will be robust. He’s in a very similar position to Joe Flacco last year, who only earned the Ravens a fourth, which doesn’t give the Panthers much more immediate ammunition to move up for a quarterback. With a new head coach and the departure of Luke Kuechly, the Panthers may see themselves in a true rebuild and instead look ahead to 2021 for their quarterback of the future rather than mortgaging firsts over multiple years to try to get their quarterback now. There’s a very good chance that they’re in the same position we were this time last year with Ryan Tannehill and a new head coach coming in. That leaves the Chargers, who almost certainly aren’t looking to bring back Philip Rivers. As the clear second team in a market that’s already proven fickle on football teams not named the Raiders, it’s possible that the Chargers might view the 2020 draft as an opportunity to make a splash by drafting their quarterback of the future. Or they could be one of the teams trying to make a splash by grabbing one of the bigger names in free agency. Our best hope is that they like a guy like Herbert or Love that they think they can get by standing pat if nobody else is moving up. We won’t be the only team that the Lions or the Giants call if they’re fielding an offer to move up and they think they can get a higher bidder. What’s really important, though, is that with five first round picks and four seconds in the next two drafts, nobody is in a position to outbid the Miami Dolphins to move up in the draft in April. As Grier signalled loudly on Thursday, the Dolphins have “more than enough” draft capital to trade up in the draft. In a season sure to be full of vacuous statements, smokescreens, and misdirection, that statement might be the most honest thing we hear out of Grier’s mouth regarding the draft for the next couple months. It’s a signal loud and clear to teams looking to trade up that we can outbid them, and an invitation to teams fielding offers to keep us in the loop. That might cause teams ahead of us to try and bluff to get us to move up ahead of another team “trying to move up”, but if we believe it’s credible and want to beat the bid, there’s little doubt that we can.
Offensive Line
I’ll take a brief step back for a moment to remind everyone that I do not consider myself a great evaluator of talent and rely heavily on others who do this kind of stuff for a living. I know it can be a controversial metric, but one source I’ve always relied on for these posts is Pro Football Focus’s premium stats. Their grades are far from perfect, but it’s some of the best cumulative data available, and I find that while they’ve occasionally got some outliers, their grades usually align with the general consensus. Moreover, their advanced stats are some of their better material. Unfortunately, there’s not a whole lot on offer in that regard for offensive linemen. I believe what follows generally follows the eye test. I’m not going to come out here swinging with data that should really surprise anyone, and I’m not going to try to use PFF’s gradings to try to advocate for fringe players who are undervalued. I’m not trying to beat the system with this analysis. This brings us to the first position group where I expect we will be active in 2020 free agency. Offensive line talent is at a premium right now, and as noted previously we have PFF and Football Outsider’s worst-ranked offensive line in the game. After letting Ja’Wuan James walk in free agency last year and trading Laremy Tunsil to the Texans, there’s a lot of pressure to rebuild this position group from a bunch of nobodies. Rookies Michael Deiter and Shaq Calhoun are the only two players on the line who played any amount of time, and both underwhelmed.
Deiter and Calhoun
Player
Offensive
Pass Blocking
Run Blocking
Total Snaps
Pass Snaps
Run Snaps
Sacks
Hits
Hurries
Pressures
Penalties
PBE
Deiter
42.5
37.8
45.5
996
708
287
6
15
23
44
5(1)
96.2
Calhoun
44.2
44.0
43.9
471
332
139
2
3
13
18
2(1)
96.8
For those of you unfamiliar with PFF’s grading system, plays are graded on a scale of +2 to -2 and then the cumulative scores are normalized to a score of 100 where 100 is the best score ever recorded for the position. Because they normalize the scores that way, that doesn’t mean that 50 is average and both Deiter and Calhoun were just above average. In fact, the median overall offensive grade among guards in 2019 was 59.6. Right about now, you should be getting the sense that neither Deiter nor Calhoun were particularly good last year. Let’s hit the rapid fire on just how not good these guys were. In pass blocking, Deiter’s grade ranks 114th of 123 guards. Calhoun’s is 108th. Deiter’s Pass Blocking Efficiency (PBE), which is a score normalized to 100 of pressures allowed as a percentage of total pass blocking snaps with a weighting toward sacks, was tied for 92nd among 118 qualifying guards. Calhoun’s was tied for 76th. Deiter’s penalties were tied for 97th worst. Calhoun’s better here, but he also played half as many snaps and was on pace to be in a similar place as penalties as Calhoun. It doesn’t stop there, either! Deiter was PFF’s 115th ranked guard in run blocking; Calhoun was 117th. That’s not to say that we should give up on either of them developing or playing better with better pieces around them, but we should not be complacent pursuing opportunities to upgrade over either of them.
Davenport, Webb, and Davis
If our guards were bad, our tackles weren’t much better. Julie’n Davenport, Jesse Davis, and J’Marcus Webb all played significant snaps for us at tackle throughout the season, and they were all pretty bad.
Player
Offensive
Pass Blocking
Run Blocking
Total Snaps
Pass Snaps
Run Snaps
Sacks
Hits
Hurries
Pressures
Penalties
PBE
J’Marcus Webb
34.4
32.0
37.1
543
372
171
7
6
26
39
8(3)
93.4
Julie’n Davenport
56.5
61.5
41.3
534
389
145
6
9
16
31
1(0)
94.9
Jesse Davis
58.9
59.6
53.6
975
696
279
4
5
33
42
4(1)
96.5
J’Marcus Webb is PFF’s worst tackle out of 120 total tackles, 117th in pass blocking, and 118th in run blocking. Davenport was 93rd overall, 82nd in pass blocking, and 114th in run blocking. Davis was 85th overall, 87th in pass blocking, and 91st in run blocking. In terms of pass blocking efficiency, Webb was 110th of 118, Davenport was 90th, and Jesse Davis was the only one in the bunch in the top half of tackles (barely) tied for 57th. You might have wondered why we didn’t try to maximize our running backs out in space and instead constantly rushed up the middle for small gains? Having tackles who were hot garbage blocking was certainly a big part of it.
Kilgore
Only center was acceptable through the season. Kilgore’s performance through thirteen games ranked him at 15th (of 49) in pass protection allowing three sacks, four hits, and 12 pressures with a pass-blocking efficiency good for tied for 23rd of 48 qualify centers. Even that’s not all that great, and given that none of his contract is guaranteed and he’s a free agent in 2021, if an upgrade was available we might pursue it. That said, given the dire need at guard and tackle, I imagine we keep Kilgore for another year. I go over all of this now to make abundantly clear how dismal our offensive line is right now. Webb and Davenport are free agents who won’t be making a return. Davis, Kilgore, Deiter, and Calhoun are all under contract, but if more than two of them are still starting for the Dolphins in 2020, that will be a colossal failure by the front office. Between free agency and the draft, we should be looking to add a minimum of three offensive linemen. Fortunately, we have the cap space and the draft capital to make this a reality.
Tackles
There are a handful of tackles available in free agency who would be an immediate upgrade for the Dolphins, although I’ll admit that’s a pretty low bar. Given that the draft is looking pretty top-heavy in offensive tackle talent in particular (depending on who you ask, there’s at least four tackles projected to go in the first round and another two or three who could be anywhere from late firsts to seconds), I expect we’ll only target one tackle in free agency. We’ve got some options. For each of these guys, I’ll discuss how they finished relative to their peers in 2019 and then include (where available) PFF grades for the last three seasons. Bryan Bulaga (RT) While older than maybe we’d initially want--he’ll be 31 by the time we can sign him--Bulaga is still one of the best right tackles in the game. He finished just behind Jack Conklin seventh among all tackles in run blocking in 2019, and performed better in pass blocking, grading at 41st overall with a pass blocking efficiency score good for 32nd in the league. Bulaga allowed four sacks, four hits, and nineteen hurries on 612 pass blocking snaps.
Year
Offensive
Pass Blocking
Run Blocking
Total Snaps
Pass Snaps
Run Snaps
Sacks
Hits
Hurries
Pressures
Penalties
PBE
2019
77.1
73.3
79.4
959
612
347
4
4
19
27
7(1)
97.2
2018
75.0
84.0
59.3
781
559
222
5
3
14
22
8(0)
97.4
2017
61.4
72.0
49.0
232
155
77
1
1
10
12
1(0)
95.5
Aside from age, another major knock on Bulaga will be his penalties. Unfortunately Bulaga’s 2017 season is the outlier across his career, as it’s the only time he’s had fewer than five penalties in a season. The final knock against Bulaga is his injury history. 2019 was the first season since 2016 in which Bulaga had played in all sixteen games. The Packers aren’t flush with cap space and have several other free agents contributing significant snaps to the team who need replaced which might leave Bulaga hitting the market. Offensive linemen often have long careers well into their 30s, and Bulaga on a 3-4 year deal might be reasonable. He’s likely not our first choice, but for the past six seasons while healthy, Bulaga has consistently been one of the best pass blocking tackles in the game and would be a massive improvement for us on that front. Jack Conklin (RT) At 26, he’s one of the youngest tackles expected to hit the market this season. He’s also one of the surest bets not to be re-signed. Although he’s stated that he’d “love” to re-sign with the Titans, with both Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry as unrestricted free agents, the Titans are in a tough spot to keep together the team that took them from the wildcard round to the AFC Championship. Tannehill is likely to receive the franchise tag projected at a whopping $26,895,000 and Henry could receive the transition tag at $10,189,000. That alone accounts for more than half of all of the Titans’ cap space with Conklin, Logan Ryan and Termaine Brock all unrestricted free agents with over 60% of total snaps played this past season. Conklin allowed five sacks, four hits, and 24 pressures on 617 pass-blocking snaps with the Titans this season. His pass blocking grade was 45th among tackles (T51st in pass blocking efficiency), but his run blocking grade was sixth.
Year
Offensive
Pass Blocking
Run Blocking
Total Snaps
Pass Snaps
Run Snaps
Sacks
Hits
Hurries
Pressures
Penalties
PBE
2019
80.6
74.0
83.7
1108
617
491
5
4
24
33
9(1)
96.6
2018
66.8
69.2
66.2
498
317
181
4
1
14
19
7(3)
96.1
2017
72.4
73.8
69.0
1099
632
467
2
8
21
31
8(2)
97.4
Despite his age, Conklin’s performance has been consistent across his young career despite an injury-shorted season in 2018. Demand at the position, Conklin’s age, and his consistency aside from the short year last season is going to drive his price up, although likely not quite to the gaudy APY number that Lane Johnson signed this November (more on that later). D.J. Humphries (LT) Humphries checks a lot of boxes as the type of guy the Dolphins might target. He’s 27-years old and can be a long-term solution at left tackle where he’s played 2,694 snaps the past four seasons. Following a season-ending knee injury in 2018, he put up a solid season in pass protection in 2019, allowing only two sacks, one hit, and 27 hurries. His pass blocking efficiency was tied for 27th among all tackles. He was poor in run blocking (94th out of 120), but has performed much better in previous years.
Year
Offensive
Pass Blocking
Run Blocking
Total Snaps
Pass Snaps
Run Snaps
Sacks
Hits
Hurries
Pressures
Penalties
PBE
2019
1046
677
369
64.5
76.3
52.3
2
1
27
30
13(1)
97.5
2018
522
342
180
68.8
62.9
72.2
4
8
16
28
2(0)
95.0
2017
204
104
100
81.7
66.0
86.1
0
0
5
5
0(0)
97.4
Humphries has been a mixed mag throughout his career with injuries and up-and-down performance that has rarely turned toward downright awful--although 14 penalties in 2019 is pretty nuts. But that’s exactly why he might be the kind of guy the Dolphins take a look at if the Cardinals decide to replace Humphries through the draft. He won’t break the bank, and if we strike out on better options in free agency, he could be a cost-effective solution that’s still a major upgrade over any of our current tackles. His worst pass blocking grade of his career (61.8 his rookie season) is still better than any of our tackles this past season, and his worst run blocking grade of his career (52.3 in 2019) is barely worse than our best (Jesse Davis). Greg Robinson (LT) Likely a cheaper option, if he hits the market. This former second overall selection in the 2014 draft has had a pretty average career, but posted career-high grades last year in Cleveland. Last year, he allowed four sacks, five hits, and seventeen hurries on 535 pass blocking snaps. His pass blocking efficiency ranked him 42nd among all tackles and his overall pass blocking grade was 56th. He's marginally better in run blocking, ranking 49th among all tackles. He’s also 28-years-old.
Year
Offensive
Pass Blocking
Run Blocking
Total Snaps
Pass Snaps
Run Snaps
Sacks
Hits
Hurries
Pressures
Penalties
PBE
2019
66.9
69.3
62.8
860
535
325
4
5
17
26
11(2)
96.9
2018
59.6
68.8
52.1
498
311
187
1
0
19
20
10(3)
96.3
2017
54.6
53.4
53.2
395
257
138
3
3
18
24
5(3)
94.4
That Robinson managed to rack up 13 penalties in 2018 while only playing half a season’s worth of snaps is downright impressive. Aside from him being the living definition of mediocrity on the offensive line, his penchant for penalties is the biggest knock on Robinson. But he’ll likely be even cheaper than Humphries. If we strike out on other free agents, or only want a short-term stop gap (Robinson has played for three teams in the past four seasons already), Robinson is an option and his most recent season would still be an improvement over our current tackles. I can see a scenario where we either whiff on guys like Bulaga and Conklin or spend more on the offensive interior and instead pursue a guy like Robinson as a stopgap for the 2020 season so that we only need to draft a single tackle in 2020 and can instead punt until 2021 with one of our two first round selections then to find the bookend at the other side of the line. Halapoulivaati Vaitai (RT) Vaitai saw about 40% of the Eagles total snaps this season at right tackle, and while he was far from a stud in pass protection (45th overall and 72nd in pass blocking efficiency), he ranked 10th against the run. The Eagles could end up keeping him and starting him at right tackle and moving Lane Johnson over to left tackle to replace Jason Peters, but he might also hit the market in free agency.
Year
Offensive
Pass Blocking
Run Blocking
Total Snaps
Pass Snaps
Run Snaps
Sacks
Hits
Hurries
Pressures
Penalties
PBE
2019
74.4
64.6
76.2
540
331
209
2
8
13
4(0)
95.8
2018
47.7
52.7
38.9
350
224
126
4
4
9
17
2(0)
94.7
2017
59.4
52.3
61.8
1031
600
431
9
14
28
51
6(0)
94.7
There’s risk in pursuing a guy like Vaitai, but he performed very well in his limited performance in 2019. If we’re investing in other positions on the line, we might bet that Vaitai will be able to repeat his 2019 performance with other good linemen around him. If the Eagles let him go, he’s the kind of guy I could see a tackle-needy team like the Dolphins thinks can take a decent stint as a back-up in 2019 and put together a good season as a starter. Given his up-and-down history (not listed above is his rookie season which was pretty similar to 2019), it’s riskier than most moves, but could provide good production at cost.
Guards
As previously established, our guards were bad this season. Our guards have been bad for years. The last time we had a good guard was when Laremy Tunsil played at left guard his rookie year. The last time before that was way back in Tannehill’s rookie season when we had Incognito. Adam Gase infamously dismissed our woes on the interior offensive line by insisting you don’t need to invest in guards, but NFL trends over the past several seasons have run counter to that logic. Despite trotting out woeful ineptitude at the position for the past seven years, we’ve only drafted three guards in all that time: Jamil Douglas in the fourth, Isaac Asiata in the fifth, and Michael Deiter in the third. It’s time the Dolphins get serious about addressing the offensive interior, but this draft isn’t exactly stacked at guard (or the offensive interior line) the way it looks like it is at tackle. Fortunately, there are a handful of options who may be available in free agency. Ereck Flowers (LG) Flowers is young (only 26) and coming off of a decent season in Washington. He’s not the big prize available in free agency from Washington’s offensive line, but he’s still a significant upgrade over anyone we’re rostering right now.
Year
Offensive
Pass Blocking
Run Blocking
Total Snaps
Pass Snaps
Run Snaps
Sacks
Hits
Hurries
Pressures
Penalties
PBE
2019
64.2
69.0
60.1
937
588
349
2
2
20
24
6(1)
97.6
2018
65.1
62.0
63.4
588
353
235
3
7
28
38
6(2)
93.8
2017
66.8
70.4
52.8
1001
653
348
6
8
27
41
9(3)
96.2
His pass blocking efficiency was good for 43rd. In 545 pass blocking snaps he allowed two sacks, two hits, and twenty hurries. He played his first four season primarily at left tackle, and he seems to have weathered the switch to left guard in Washington well. He’s far from a world-beater, but he’s competent and is another guy who won’t break the bank. His previous experience at tackle is also always useful in the event that injuries require he shift over. Graham Glasgow (RG) Speaking of players for whom a move to guard was agreeable, Graham Glasgow moved from center to right guard this year and did a pretty great job of it. He allowed zero sacks, five hits, and 20 hurries on 559 pass blocking snaps and put up a career-high 74.2 grade in run blocking.
Year
Offensive
Pass Blocking
Run Blocking
Total Snaps
Pass Snaps
Run Snaps
Sacks
Hits
Hurries
Pressures
Penalties
PBE
2019
74.1
69.0
74.2
872
559
313
0
5
20
3(0)
97.6
2018
70.1
73.8
69.1
1076
673
403
1
5
15
21
9(6)
98.2
2017
71.1
71.8
67.0
1042
681
361
3
6
17
26
4(0)
97.7
Glasgow was already pretty solid as a center in 2017 and 2018, and he made the transition to guard pretty well. At 28-years-old, he could be a solid contributor who has the ability to play both guard and center, and that kind of flexibility has value, as noted with Flowers. It becomes even more valuable considering the time that Kilgore has missed over the past two seasons. Andrus Peat (LG) A couple of years ago, Peat was looking like a stud young guard, but he’s posted back-to-back horrendous seasons in 2018 and an injury-shortened 2019.
Year
Offensive
Pass Blocking
Run Blocking
Total Snaps
Pass Snaps
Run Snaps
Sacks
Hits
Hurries
Pressures
Penalties
PBE
2019
48.7
56.5
47.0
628
388
240
3
3
13
19
3(0)
97.1
2018
39.8
47.3
40.4
879
494
385
3
4
17
24
8(0)
97.3
2017
68.3
66.4
63.7
932
524
408
4
6
18
28
6(1)
96.7
I mostly bring Peat up because his name is one that’s certain to come up in free agency discussions, and someone’s going to look at his first three seasons in the league and think he can return to that performance. He’s risky, but his recent performance is likely to affect his price, and he’s young so there’s upside there for him to turn it around and be a long-term piece on the line. Brandon Scherff (RG) Of the two guards out of Washington, Scherff, age 29, is obviously the bigger catch. He’s missed time due to injury and had a lot of penalties (9) this season, but when he was on the field he was still great, ranking as PFF’s seventh overall guard and allowing only 10 total pressures (one sack, nine hurries) in 394 pass blocking snaps. Moreover, Sherff has been stellar for years.
Year
Offensive
Pass Blocking
Run Blocking
Total Snaps
Pass Snaps
Run Snaps
Sacks
Hits
Hurries
Pressures
Penalties
PBE
2019
75.0
72.0
76.3
643
394
249
1
0
9
10
9(1)
98.5
2018
70.8
84.0
62.3
506
301
205
1
1
7
9
2(0)
98.2
2017
79.9
72.3
79.3
867
524
343
3
4
15
22
2(1)
97.5
It may be worrisome to some that Scherff has ended the past two seasons on injured reserve (2018 for a pectoral tear and 2019 for shoulder and elbow injuries), but if the medicals look good, his performance on the field is good enough to justify the added risk, and he’d be a major get in free agency at a position of need. Michael Schofield (RG) Schofield’s a good pass blocking guard but won’t offer much of an improvement in the way of run blocking if his 2019 performance is anything to go on. He finished 17th in pass protection (allowing one sack, seven hits, and 18 hurries in 688 pass blocking snaps) but 97th in run blocking. He’s a cheaper option we may look to if we strike out on the premier names in this free agency class. At 30, he’s on the older end of players on this list as well.
Year
Offensive
Pass Blocking
Run Blocking
Total Snaps
Pass Snaps
Run Snaps
Sacks
Hits
Hurries
Pressures
Penalties
PBE
2019
63.6
76.9
50.3
1057
688
369
1
7
18
26
1(0)
97.9
2018
62.7
71.7
53.1
1116
680
436
5
5
21
31
0(0)
97.2
2017
57.0
48.1
63.1
407
230
177
2
5
18
25
2(0)
93.6
He’s been pretty consistently that same guy the past two years with the Chargers at right guard: a good pass blocker, but a poor run blocker. He played almost all of his snaps as a back-up RT tackle in 2017 with the Chargers and fared much more poorly than he did at the same position with Denver in his rookie season. Joe Thuney (LG) The clear prize at guard in free agency. Especially if the Patriots bring back Tom Brady, it’s going to be hard for them to afford to bring back Thuney as well. The 2019 All Pro guard figures to see a big pay day, and we should be the ones to give it to him. Thuney was absolutely stellar in pass protection last year, allowing only 17 total pressures (one sack, four hits, and twelve hurries) on 732 pass blocking snaps. His run blocking brought him down, but he finished as PFF’s sixth-ranked guard regardless. Did I mention that in 1,201 snaps he had no penalties on top of everything else? That’s crazy.
Year
Offensive
Pass Blocking
Run Blocking
Total Snaps
Pass Snaps
Run Snaps
Sacks
Hits
Hurries
Pressures
Penalties
PBE
2019
79.2
88.0
68.7
1201
732
469
1
4
12
17
0(0)
98.7
2018
75.5
85.3
68.0
1371
765
606
0
5
21
26
5(0)
98.1
2017
74.4
74.9
68.8
1354
835
519
5
10
31
46
3(0)
96.7
He’ll be sure to break the bank and may even reset the market at the position, but we badly need an infusion of talent on the interior offensive line, and Thuney’s a guy who can absolutely give it to us. He’s 28-years-old and can be a staple of our offensive unit for our quarterback of the future for years to come. Thuney is the kind of guard you throw money at, and if he does reset the market, he’ll have earned it. Greg Van Roten (LG) Also one of the older guys on the list, Van Roten is similar to Schofield in that he offers solid pass blocking (24th among guards with one sack, three hits, and 13 hurries) with poor run blocking (63rd among guards).
Year
Offensive
Pass Blocking
Run Blocking
Total Snaps
Pass Snaps
Run Snaps
Sacks
Hits
Hurries
Pressures
Penalties
PBE
2019
65.6
74.3
57.3
704
446
258
1
3
13
17
2(1)
97.9
2018
59.8
68.8
53.6
1059
668
391
2
2
32
36
2(0)
97.0
2017
62.9
29.4
65.5
10
3
7
0
0
0
0
0(0)
100.0
Having only played ten snaps in 2017 (one at tight end and nine at center), you might as well disregard that season. Before that, he was in and out of the NFL and the Canadian Football League. He was the only offensive player to play all of the Panthers’ offensive snaps in 2018. In 2019 he dislocated his toe in week 12 and was placed on IR. He’s another, cheaper option we might consider if we whiff on bigger names.
Center
As mentioned earlier, I don’t think that center is a position we actively pursue, but given that Kilgore’s contract has no guarantees, if an upgrade is available it’s a possibility. Even if we wanted to address the center position in free agency, however, there’s not a major upgrade to be had, at least not someone who’s young enough to be a long-term contributor and to justify moving on from Kilgore. Connor McGovern As far as immediate upgrades go, McGovern comes to mind. McGovern had a career year in his contract year, allowing only one sack, three hits, and 11 hurries in 609 pass-blocking snaps and scored PFF’s fifth highest pass blocking grade for centers.
Year
Offensive
Pass Blocking
Run Blocking
Total Snaps
Pass Snaps
Run Snaps
Sacks
Hits
Hurries
Pressures
Penalties
PBE
2019
71.9
82.5
64.0
1013
609
404
1
3
11
15
0(0)
98.6
2018
58.3
38.7
66.2
1056
667
389
2
5
36
43
6(0)
96.4
2017
49.2
58.8
49.5
418
247
171
1
3
12
16
3(0)
96.3
He’s been considerably less consistent the rest of his career, however, allowing two sacks, five hits, and a whopping 36 hurries on 667 pass-blocking snaps in his first full year starting in 2018, earning a dismal 38.7 pass blocking grade that season. He was a competent run blocker in both seasons. It’s also worth noting that more than half of his snaps came at right guard in 2018 and almost all his snaps came at right guard in 2017. McGovern looks like another player for whom the position change has yielded positive results. If he can keep up his play from 2019, he’d be an improvement over Kilgore. That’s a big if, though. At 27 he’s far more a long-term solution to the position than Kilgore who is five years his senior. I’m far more gun shy about rewarding a player for a single year of elevated performance than injuries, however, and I’m not sure I’d pull the trigger here.
Running Back
Running back is not a position with much of a shelf life, and outside of a few top backs in the league, rushing production is perhaps the most replaceable production on the field. Many fans bemoan the backs we’ve let leave in recent years, but history has largely vindicated the Dolphins’s reluctance to commit to backs beyond rookie deals. The Texans surely regret paying Lamar Miller so much. Jay Ajayi can’t even find a spot on an NFL roster these days. While Drake has played well in Arizona, it remains to be seen whether he can actually sustain that. Even Damien Williams, who we’re watching be very successful in the playoffs now, only has 750 rushing yards and 350 receiving yards since he left the Dolphins. We haven’t let any world-beaters go. So to say that I’m against spending money on running backs in free agency is an understatement, and frankly this year doesn’t look like a particularly good one to be pursuing anyone either. Has a holdout ever worked out more poorly for a player than it has for Melvin Gordon this year? Do we really want to go out and spend money on a guy like Jordan Howard? The only two running backs I’d really even consider trying to bring in right now might be Austin Ekeler or Gus Edwards, and the former will almost certainly be tendered (and he’s not worth giving up draft picks for) and the latter is an exclusive rights free agent. Both, notably, are also undrafted free agents. While the recent draft has shown that premier running back talent is dominant in the league (the leading rusher in the NFL has been a former first round pick four of the past five years), there’s also plenty of evidence showing that middle-round selections for running back can return big dividends. Sorry guys, I’m not going to dive into rushing stats to demonstrate that like I did for quarterbacks. Maybe next year (but probably not). That’s not to say that we shouldn’t improve at the position. Right now, Patrick Laird is our only running back worth half a damn on the roster, and we definitely need to bring more bodies into the group. We should probably target a running back in the middle rounds of the draft. Maybe the second if someone falls, but in general I’m against investing a lot of draft capital or cap space into the position. It’s also worth noting that in moving to a spread offense under Gailey, rushing is unlikely to be the focal point of our attack. Versatile backs who are useful both as pass blockers and receivers are going to be very important, so a bruiser like Derrick Henry (who I doubt makes it to free agency) doesn’t seem like the type of player we should be targeting.
Tight End
As noted last week, Mike Gesicki stepping up for us in 2019 was a big get, and I expect that his role will increase even more in Gailey’s offense as he was very successful in college in a similar scheme. That said, one of the ways that we can continue to help out our offensive line in both pass blocking and run blocking is to run more sets with multiple tight ends. We brought in a lot of tight ends last off season to try and improve the group, but really only Gesicki has emerged as anything worthwhile. I don’t expect this position to be a major priority, but there’s a couple free agents who might be worth looking at if they become available. Given the much lower likelihood that we’ll actually pursue one of these targets, I won’t go into as much depth as above for the offensive line. These are just some names to keep in mind that might not be completely out of left field. Austin Hooper Hooper’s a threat in the passing game, no doubt. In the past two seasons he’s caught 146 of 180 targets for 1,447 yards and ten touchdowns with only four drops. He has similar flaws to Gesicki, though, as he’s rarely used in pass protection and isn’t the stoutest run blocker (although he’s still an improvement over Gesicki in blocking). He’d be another big-bodied passing threat in what figures to be a passing-heavy offense, though. Hunter Henry Hunter Henry’s a very similar guy to Hooper. In his first two seasons he was much more effective in pass protection and run blocking, but he had a down year in 2019 after missing all of 2018, but he’s another guy who provides a big-bodied receiving threat that provides match-up problems for linebackers. Tyler Eifert He’s starting to get on the older side, but he’s probably the most well-rounded of the tight ends available in free agency. Eifert didn’t get a lot attention in the passing game this season, but he was solid in pass protection and decent in run blocking. He’s probably not a guy we target unless he’s really cheap.
Wide Receiver
We’re not going to sign a wide receiver in free agency. We’re probably not going to draft a wide receiver before the fifth round in April either. DeVante Parker and Preston Williams figure to be our two main targets in 2020, and last week I already discussed that I think we should drop both Jakeem Grant and Albert Wilson while keeping Allen Hurns and bringing back Isaiah Ford. That doesn’t leave much room for additional wide receivers who should expect to see much playing time. I’ll readily admit, though, that it does skew towards a single skill set. Isaiah Ford is the smallest of the bunch listed at 6’2” and 189 pounds. The others are all 6’3” or taller and over 200 pounds. They all posted combine 40 times right around the average for wide receivers (4.48). In that group Hurns figures as our slot receiver (where he played 50% of his snaps last season). The group lacks lateral speed, shiftiness, and speedsters in general, but we’ve had both of those recently (Kenny Stills, Jakeem Grant, Albert Wilson) and except for Stills none of those players ever provided consistent production. Regardless of what the team ultimately decides to do with Wilson and Grant, wide receiver is the last position any of us should expect to invest in this offseason, whether that’s in terms of cap space or draft picks. The only way I see us grabbing a wide receiver is if someone unexpected falls into our laps in April.
DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average): calculates a team's success based on the down-and-distance of each play during the season, then calculates how much more or less successful each team is compared to the league average. DVOA Pass/Run Defense Rank: Team’s NFL rank in DVOA pass or run defense so far this season. #1 means best DEF against the pass/run, #32 means worst DEF against the pass/run. Weighted DEFENSE: is adjusted so that earlier games in the season become gradually less important. It better reflects how the team was playing at the end of the season. ATS = Against the spread DVOA from https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef/2019
Opp (BAL) Pass DVOA: #3 Opp (BAL) Run DVOA: #21 Opp (BAL) Weighted DEF: #4 Injuries to Watch DEF (BAL): LB Chris Board (OUT) S Anthony Levin (Q) DE Jihad Ward (Q) Injuries to Watch OFF (NYJ): OL Chuma Edoga (OUT) TE Ryan Griffin (OUT) RB Bilal Powell (OUT) WR Demaryius Thomas (D) OL Kelvin Beachum (Q) RB Ty Montgomery (Q) Key WCB matchups: None Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Jamison Crowder (20%) Robby Anderson (17%) Le’Veon Bell (14%) Demaryius Thomas (14%) Ryan Griffin (12%) RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Bilal Powell (79%, 21, 3) Ty Montgomery (32%, 12, 3) QB/WTE Breakdown Fresh off a comeback win against the Dolphins last week, Sam Darnold (downgrade) and the Jets head into TNF against likely the best team in football. It won’t be an easy matchup for Darnold, who has cooled off a bit after a torrid three game stretch Weeks 10-12. The Ravens have given up the second fewest FPPG to QBs this season, and have the 3rd best pass DVOA. Considering the low projected point total for the Jets, Darnold is not a 1QB option, and should be viewed as a risky QB2 option against one of the better secondaries in the league. He has a tough Week 16 matchup against a stingy Pittsburgh defense as well, so Darnold doesn’t need to be owned in most leagues down the home stretch. The matchup for the Jets’ wide receivers is not quite as challenging, as the Ravens have given up the 15th fewest FPPG to WRs. That being said, since the addition of CB Marcus Peters, this has been an elite unit. Robby Anderson has put up a quality stretch the past few weeks, albeit against inferior competition, and is deserving of consideration in many lineups. He’ll face tough boundary matchups, but he’s almost too hot to bench right now. Consider him a boom-or-bust WR3, with a slight upgrade in standard formats due to his big play ability, and only bench him if you have comfortable alternative options. Jamison Crowder (downgrade) has been a disappointment after seemingly cementing himself as a PPR stud, failing to get over 30 yards any of the past 3 weeks. He’ll likely draw stud CB Marlon Humphrey in coverage, which is a tough matchup, and is too risky to start this week outside of deep formats. Consider him a WR4 at this point. Demaryius Thomas is banged up and likely to sit this week, and TE Ryan Griffin has been placed on IR. RB Breakdown It appears that Le’Veon Bell (volume upgrade) will return from his short stint as a professional bowler, and will resume his status as a workhorse back for the Jets. He’s been cleared by the medical staff and is good to go, and both of his backups are nursing injuries. That means that Bell should immediately resume his heavy workload, the question is just how effective he can be in a tough matchup. The Ravens have given up the 4th fewest FPPG to RBs on the season, despite a below average rush DVOA. Consider Bell a usage-based RB2, with an upgrade in PPR leagues, who should likely be in all lineups simply because his volume is projected to be so high. He probably won’t win you your week, but has a high enough floor to ensure he doesn’t lose it for you.
Ravens
Opp (NYJ) Pass DVOA: #22 Opp (NYJ) Run DVOA: #2 Opp (NYJ) Weighted DEF: #14 Injuries to Watch DEF (NYJ): CB Brian Pooler (OUT) S Jamal Adams (D) CB Arthur Maulet (D) DL Quinnen Williams (D) DL Henry Anderson (Q) S Matthias Farley (Q) DL Steve McLendon (Q) DL Nathan Shepherd (Q) Injuries to Watch OFF (BAL): OT Ronnie Stanley (D) TE Mark Andrews (Q) QB Lamar Jackson (Q) Key WCB matchups: None Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Mark Andrews (19%) Marquise Brown (17%) Nick Boyle (13%) Willie Snead (13%) Hayden Hurst (10%) Seth Roberts (10%) Mark Ingram (9%) RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Mark Ingram (55%, 18, 3) Gus Edwards (33%, 4, 0) Justice Hill (10%, 3, 0) QB/WTE Breakdown The Ravens enter Week 15 as huge home favorites against the Jets, and with their quarterback expected to play through injury should be able to handle their business. Lamar Jackson (auto-start) has labored through a quad injury this week in practice, but is tentatively expected to suit up in a plus matchup against a depleted Jets’ secondary. New York has been middle of the pack in FPPG allowed to QBs this year, but are on a downward trend as a defense overall. Jackson has shown that he can win in a myriad of ways, with his legs and his arm, and owners should continue to ride him this week unless reports come out that his quad injury will limit him severely on Thursday night. He’s an elite QB1 every time he suits up, and that will be the case again on TNF. There simply isn’t much volume to go around in this passing game. Mark Andrews has been a consistent force as a TE1 this season, but is banged up heading into Week 15. It appears likely he will suit up, but monitor injury reports closely leading up to kickoff. The Jets have given up the second fewest FPPG to TEs this year, so the matchup is a bit riskier than would be expected. Considering his injury status, he should be downgraded to mid-range TE1, but if he’s active he should likely be in your lineup. After Andrews, the only fantasy relevant pass-catcher in this offense is Marquise Brown (upgrade). Brown hasn’t been reliable this season, and managed to finish with negative receiving yards last week. But... the Jets have given up the 10th most FPPG to WRs, and have allowed more than 80 yards per game to opposing #1 WRs, making this a potentially exploitable matchup (Football Outsiders). With Andrews likely limited, or perhaps out altogether, consider Brown a decent WR3 option, just know his floor is extremely low. There are no other names to monitor as streaming options in this low-volume pass game. RB Breakdown The backfield split in Baltimore has remained quite consistent throughout the season, with Mark Ingram (upgrade game-script) handling a slight majority of the snaps and touches while ceding some to his two backups to keep him healthy. He struggled in a good spot against Buffalo last week, but that was more an indication of the games overall defensive conditions than any particular issue with Ingram. Consider him a solid RB1 this week based on the Ravens position as home favorites. The Jets have given up the 10th fewest FPPG to RBs, but Ingram contributes in the run and the pass game, and generally gets a high percentage of the red-zone opportunities as well. Gus Edwards and Justice Hill aren’t fantasy relevant, although Edwards should be owned as the direct handcuff for Ingram. Score Prediction: Ravens 30, Jets 13
Opp (DET) Pass DVOA: #25 Opp (DET) Run DVOA: #18 Opp (DET) Weighted DEF: #27 Injuries to Watch DEF (DET): DE Austin Bryant (Q) LB Jarrad Davis (Q) DL Da’Shawn Hand (OUT-IR) LB Christian Jones (Q) A’Shawn Robinson (Q) Injuries to Watch OFF (TB): WR Mike Evans (OUT) QB Jameis Winston (P) Key WCB matchups: Chris Godwin vs. Darius Slay (Rotoworld) Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Chris Godwin (20%) Mike Evans (20%) Cameron Brate (12%) Breshad Perriman (11%) O.J. Howard (10%) Ronald Jones (9%) RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Peyton Barber (38%, 15, 5) Ronald Jones (35%, 15, 5) Dare Ogunbowale (29%, 5, 5)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Despite getting the win in an exciting shootout at home against Indy, the Bucs have been eliminated from playoff contention. Jameis Winston’s (upgrade) exciting season continued, as he rolled up 456-yards passing, 5 touchdowns (4 passing, 1 rushing), and of course, 3 interceptions. He’s on track to become the first player in NFL history to throw 30 touchdowns and 30 interceptions in the same season. From a fantasy and game watching perspective, it really doesn’t get much better than that. With Winston under center, neither his team, nor the other team, is ever out of the game. On tap is a matchup against a fading Lions team, who have been abysmal on defense of late, they rank just 27th in Weighted DEF DVOA - ceding 20.5 FPPG to QBs and 24.4 to RBs. Continue to fire up Winston as a solid QB1. Mike Evans (hamstring) has been ruled out for the rest of the season, pulling a hamstring just as he was crossing the goal line on a 61-yard touchdown scamper. Evan’s absence elevates 3rd-year breakout Chris Godwin (upgrade) even higher into the WR1 realms. Highly respected CB Darius Slay consistently covers the slot (Rotoworld), unlike most other No. 1 CBs who tend to stay outside; meaning Godwin should see plenty of Slay, but the matchup isn’t imposing. Slay has been consistently exploited by wideouts given double-digit targets (Rotoworld). Additionally, Slay has been far from elite this season, ranking as PFF’s No. 95 CB. Fire up Godwin as a top-3 option this week. Both Justin Watson (5-59-1 in Week 14) and Breshad Perriman (3-70-1 in Week 14) found the end zone in Bucs win over the Colts last week, and both make intriguing streamer options in a plus matchup against the Lions. However, it’s impossible to know which will receive the volume, making both feast-or-famine WRs. Proceed at your own risk, but both carry matchup winning upside - DET cedes the 2nd most fantasy points to No. 2 WRs (Rotoworld). Sans Evans, Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard (stash) may see an increase in volume. The edge goes to Howard, but it’s still a risky proposition. It’s preferred to stash not start Howard, as a juicy Week 16 matchup against HOU (8.2 FPPG to TEs) is on deck. RB Breakdown The rollercoaster ride that is the Bucs backfield continued last week, with Ronald Jones and Peyton Barber seeing identical touches. DET is a great matchup for opposing backfields, hemorrhaging 23.8 FPPG to RBs. However, given that TB is a passing team, and that touches seem to be split right down the middle, it’s impossible to recommend either running back. Fade if possible. If that’s not an option, Jones is the preferred play, but it’s a coin flip.
Lions
Opp (TB) Pass DVOA: #19 Opp (TB) Run DVOA: #1 Opp (TB) Weighted DEF: #11 Injuries to Watch DEF (TB): OLB Anthony Nelson (Q) OLB Jason Pierre-Paul (Q) Injuries to Watch OFF (DET): WR Marvin Jones (OUT-IR) QB Matt Stafford (D) RB Bo Scarbrough (Q) G Joe Dahl (Q) G Rick Wagner (Q) Key WCB matchups: None Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Marvin Jones (20%) Kenny Golladay (17%) Danny Amendola (17%) T.J. Hockenson (15%) J.D. McKissic (11%) RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Bo Scarbrough (48%, 20, 3) Ty Johnson (30%, 3, 1) J.D. McKissic (23%, 5, 4) QB/WTE Breakdown The Lions miserable season rolled on with a loss in MIN. David Blough (don’t) has been a passable stopgap in the absence of Matt Stafford and Jeff Driskel, but you aren’t starting him in any fantasy format. Stafford hasn’t been placed on IR for whatever reason, but it’s unlikely we see him play again in 2019 considering Detroit's place in the standings. Marvin Jones (ankle) has been lost for the season, meaning Chris Lacy will likely replace him (Rotoworld). Lacy has played just 11 snaps this season and doesn’t have a target, he’s not a fantasy option. Kenny Golladay (upgrade) has 216-yards and two touchdowns in two games with David Blough at the controls. The matchup couldn’t be better, TB may have the worst secondary in the NFL. Danny Amendola (upgrade PPR) has received 8 targets in two games with Blough, but has failed to do anything meaningful with them. He’s a WR3 for the anemic DET offense. TB cedes 31.4 FPPG to opposing WRs, worst in the NFL. Logan Thomas and Jesse James are splitting snaps right down the middle, rendering both useless for fantasy. RB Breakdown Before exiting with a rib injury late in the 4th quarter, Bo Scarbrough grinded for 65-yards on 19 carries, producing one catch for an additional five-yards. He remains questionable for Sunday, but isn’t a great option anyway in a tough matchup - TB boasts the No. 1 Run DVOA and cedes just 11.3 FPPG to RBs. Consider him a volume-based flex option if he goes. If he doesn’t, neither J.D. McKissic or Ty Johnson should be considered viable fantasy options. Kerryon Johnson returned to practice Wednesday, and is eligible to return for Week 16 if activated. It’s worth checking your wire to see if he’s available, he could be important for Fantasy Championship week - although a Week 16 matchup against DEN isn’t amazing. Score Prediction: Buccaneers 30, Lions 20
Opp (WAS) Pass DVOA: #18 Opp (WAS) Run DVOA: #24 Opp (WAS) Weighted DEF: #19 Injuries to Watch DEF (WAS): DE Ryan Kerrigan (OUT) CB Quinton Dunbar (Q) LB Ryan Anderson (Q) CB Fabian Moreau (Q) Injuries to Watch OFF (PHI): WR Alshon Jeffery (OUT-IR) WR Nelson Agholor (Q) RT Lane Johnson (Q) RB Jordan Howard (Q) Key WCB matchups: None Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Zach Ertz (25%) Alshon Jeffery (19%) Nelson Agholor (18%) Dallas Goedert (15%) Miles Sanders (10%) J.J. Arcega-Whiteside (6%) RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Miles Sanders (56%, 19, 5) Boston Scott (44%, 16, 6) Jay Ajayi (6%, 2, 1) QB/WTE Breakdown At this point, neither the Eagles or the Cowboys look like they deserve a playoff spot, but the winner of the NFC East will get in. The battle for that title takes place in Week 16. PHI managed to rally late on MNF against an increasingly hapless New York Giants team. Luckily for the Eagles, after a hot start in the first half, Eli Manning turned back into a pumpkin. Carson Wentz (upgrade) churned out a back-end QB1 start in the comeback, but PHI looked completely inept until their back was against the wall. Regardless of inconsistency, Wentz has managed to make the most against soft secondaries, and WAS definitely qualifies as that - ceding 18.3 FPPG to QBs and 21.7 to WRs. Consider him a back-end QB1. Alshon Jeffery (foot, IR) has been diagnosed with a Lisfranc fracture and will miss the remainder of the season. It’s close to a worst-case scenario for the aging receiver who has dealt with a myriad of injuries throughout his career. Already running on fumes, Jeffery faces a long road to recovery. Nelson Agholor is also banged up, missing Week 12 and Week 14. It’s likely he sits again this week, meaning the passing game will run through Zach Ertz (upgrade), Dallas Goedert (upgrade), and to a lesser extent, rookie J.J. Arcega-Whiteside. Ertz and Goedert sit firmly in the TE1 ranks, as both should see an increase in volume sans Jeffery. Whiteside and the other passing options aren’t viable options, don’t attempt to get cute. RB Breakdown It was Boston Scott rolling up yards last week, not Miles Sanders. Although, that can be attributed to Sanders dealing with cramps at times. Either way, it’s possible that Jordan Howard makes his return this week. Keep an eye on his availability, as it should render Scott back to waiver fodder. The matchup is good, WAS cedes 20.3 FPPG to RBs. Consider Sanders a solid RB2, while Howard will be a solid flex if he is able to suit up. If he doesn’t, Scott has some upside as a flex option, albeit a risky one.
Redskins
Opp (PHI) Pass DVOA: #16 Opp (PHI) Run DVOA: #8 Opp (PHI) Weighted DEF: #12 Injuries to Watch DEF (PHI): DE Derek Barnett (Q) CB Jalen Mills (Q) LB Kamu Grugier-Hill (P) Injuries to Watch OFF (WAS): RB Derrius Guice (OUT-IR) OT Morgan Moses (Q) OT Donald Penn (Q) WR Trey Quinn (Q) WR Paul Richardson (Q) OG Brandon Scherff (Q) Key WCB matchups: None Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Terry McLaurin (24%) Chris Thompson (19%) Kelvin Harmon (17%) Steven Sims (13%) Paul Richardson (13%) RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Adrian Peterson (43%, 20, 0) Chris Thompson (40%, 7, 8) Derrius Guice (14%, 5, 0) Wendall Smallwood (3%, 2, 0) QB/WTE Breakdown The Redskins have been playing better of late, winning two of the last three, and playing competitively against a much better Green Bay team this week. The wins can be chalked up to playing slumping teams in DET and CAR, and this offense is still not moving the ball. Dwayne Haskins (don’t) produced another sub-par performance against GB, throwing for his usual 170-yards with a touchdown and an interception. He’s not good, and the matchup isn’t good, he’s not a fantasy option. The only piece of the passing game worthy of consideration is Terry McLaurin (upgrade). The PHI secondary has been consistently roasted this year by receivers with elite speed, and ‘Scary Terry’ certainly fits that mold. Still, the issue isn’t McLaurin’s talent, it’s whether or not Haskins can deliver a catchable ball. That remains to be seen, so Terry is no more than a boom-or-bust WR3. Don’t consider the other WAS passing game options. RB Breakdown It’s safe to wonder why the Redskins decided to bring back Derrius Guice (knee, IR) in a lost season. But at this point, the shortcomings of the Redskins as an organization are well documented, and no blunder made should be considered surprising. With Guice out of the picture, Adrian Peterson becomes a serviceable volume based RB3. The matchup is awful - PHI boasts a top-10 Run DVOA and only cedes 15.2 FPPG to RBs. Don’t expect much from AP. Chris Thompson (upgrade PPR) looked healthy, and should resume his PPR-dynamo ways. He caught 7 passes for 43-yards last week, and assuming he stays on the field, that should be around his floor. Score Prediction: Eagles 20, Redskins 17
Opp (GB) Pass DVOA: #17 Opp (GB) Run DVOA: #26 Opp (GB) Weighted DEF: #24 Injuries to Watch DEF (GB): CB Kevin King (Q) Injuries to Watch OFF (CHI): TE Ben Braunecker (Q) WR Taylor Gabriel (D) OT Bobby Massie (Q) Key WCB matchups: None Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Allen Robinson (25%) Anthony Miller (20%) Taylor Gabriel (20%) Tarik Cohen (17%) Javon Wims (8%) RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: David Montgomery (64%, 20, 1) Tarik Cohen (47%, 9, 6) Ryan Nall (1%, 0, 0) QB/WTE Breakdown You have to think that Mitchell Trubisky (downgrade) has enjoyed proving his doubters wrong during his recent three game blow-up that has coincided with a three game win streak. Last week, Trubisky surprised almost all fantasy enthusiasts (us included) by going off for over 30 points against a previously solid Cowboys’ pass defense. This week things get a bit tougher, as the Packers have given up the 6th fewest FPPG to QBs on the season. Still, the current stretch Mitch is on makes him at least worth rostering and in consideration for a starting spot. Consider him a high-end QB2 with a risky floor, but a suddenly quite appealing ceiling. But proceed with caution in chasing last week’s points. The scrambling and rushing ability he demonstrated against DAL is why he was a worthy fantasy option last year. As Trubisky goes, so does this offense, so it’s no surprise that Allen Robinson (auto-start) has been a quality asset during Trubs recent run of success. He’s scored 4 times in the past 3 games, and is seeing consistent volume as the clear #1 in this pass game. The Packers are a tough matchup - 7th fewest FPPG allowed to WRs - but ARob has been too hot to leave out of lineups at this point. Consider him on the WR1/2 borderline this week. With Taylor Gabriel (concussion) likely out again this week, Anthony Miller (downgrade) should continue to see additional opportunities to produce. He’s averaged over 13 points per game the past three weeks (.5 PPR), and his role has increased as the season has progressed. Despite the tough matchup, he can be viewed as a low-end WR3, but his floor is dangerously low considering his still uncertain role. This has the looks of a week you might want to have him on your bench. RB Breakdown Can you trust David Montgomery (upgrade standard) in fantasy playoffs? That’s the question most owners are asking if they somehow made it to playoffs with the talented but unreliable back on their roster. While we can never know for certain, things seem to at least be trending in his favor. The Packers have given up the 6th most FPPG to RBs on the season, and have the 26th ranked rush DVOA. Although the Bears are road underdogs, the improved play of Trubisky at QB is also a plus in terms of potential red zone opportunities. And finally, when Montgomery fumbled last week (which was after he likely should have been ruled down by forward progress) he returned and was still a part of the offense. His floor is lowered by his lack of activity in the passing game, but the matchup this week negates that to some extent. Consider Montgomery an RB2 in most situations; he should have success on the ground but needs a TD to reach his ceiling. Tarik Cohen simply hasn’t gotten the volume to be a trustworthy start, regardless of matchup, so leave him on your bench on or waivers.
Packers
Opp (CHI) Pass DVOA: #7 Opp (CHI) Run DVOA: #11 Opp (CHI) Weighted DEF: #8 Injuries to Watch DEF (CHI): DT Roy Robertson-Harris (Q) LB Danny Trevathan (Q) DT Akiem Hicks (likely to play) Injuries to Watch OFF (GB): TE Jimmy Graham (Q) WR Geronimo Allison (Q) OL Billy Turner (Q) Key WCB matchups: None Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Davante Adams (30%) Jamaal Williams (23%) Allen Lazard (11%) Aaron Jones (10%) Jimmy Graham (9%) Geronimo Allison (8%) Marquez Valdes-Scantling (6%) RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Aaron Jones (58%, 22, 7) Jamaal Williams (42%, 7, 1) QB/WTE Breakdown The Packers struggled to put the Redskins away last week, and Aaron Rodgers (downgrade) wasn’t able to capitalize on the plus matchup for fantasy owners. Outside of a few blow-up games, the former MVP hasn’t produce the numbers that we are accustomed to this season. Perhaps some of that is due to team conditions, as the defense and running game have stepped up this year, but regardless it has left him outside of the elite QB1 ranks this year. The Bears still have an imposing defense on paper, and have given up the 7th fewest FPPG to QBs on the season. They are similarly stout against both the pass and the run, so it doesn’t necessarily set up as a week for the Packers to pound the run either. Rodgers can be viewed this week as a low-end QB1; if you have an elite alternative with a good matchup it might be worth going another direction. His floor is relatively stable and he should be able to put up a solid final line, but we aren’t anticipating a “boom” week. The Packers trend towards a run-heavy approach has also hurt the production of their pass-catchers this season. Davante Adams (auto-start) remains an elite WR, but has had some issues with injuries and low volume this year. He’s too good to bench, even in a somewhat tough matchup, but he’s not the same guaranteed 10+ points we were accustomed to in the past. The Bears give up the 9th fewest FPPG to WRs, but that shouldn’t deter you from starting Adams. Consider him a solid WR1 this week, and hope that the Bears continue to have success on offense, forcing the game into a high-scoring pace. No other Packers’ receiver has been able to carve out fantasy relevance, and only Allen Lazard has topped 50 yards in the past few games. Lazard, and the other complementary wide receivers, are not reliable fantasy options in the second week of fantasy playoffs. TE Jimmy Graham (downgrade) has been mostly mediocre this year, and doesn’t offer any upside. Consider him a low-end TE2 that would need his first TD since Week 7 to have any hope of paying off. RB Breakdown Is there a more boom-bust player in fantasy right now than Aaron Jones (auto-start)? Coming off two down weeks, he rebounded against the Redskins with over 150 total yards and a TD. This week, he will take aim at a Bears’ defense giving up the 15th most FPPG to RBs, with the 11st best run DVOA. The Packers are home favorites, which works in Jones’ favor, and his ceiling is such that you cannot sit him in a given week or else risk missing out on 25+ points. Consider him a RB1, and just live with the ups and downs that come with riding the young back. His backfield mate Jamaal Williams (downgrade standard) has carved out a solid role in the Packers offense, but doesn’t have nearly the ceiling that Jones does. Last week, he surprisingly had no catches, and produced only 26 total yards with no scores. In a somewhat tough matchup, he’s no more than an RB3/flex in PPR leagues, with a slight downgrade in standard formats. Unless you are extremely thin at RB, he likely can’t be trusted in the second round of the fantasy playoffs. Score Prediction: Bears 16, Packers 13
Opp (CIN) Pass DVOA: #30 Opp (CIN) Run DVOA: #28 Opp (CIN) Weighted DEF: #28 Injuries to Watch DEF (CIN): DT Geno Atkins (Q) CB Darqueze Dennard (Q) DE Sam Hubbard (Q) DT Renell Wren (Q) Injuries to Watch OFF (NE): WR Julian Edelman (P) WR Mohamed Sanu Sr. (P) QB Tom Brady (P) WR N’Keal Harry (P) OL Ted Karras (Q) Key WCB matchups: None Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Julian Edelman (26%) James White (14%) Mohamed Sanu (13%) Jakobi Meyers (12%) Phillip Dorsett (10%) RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: James White (61%, 11, 7) Rex Burkhead (27%, 7, 0) Sony Michel (13%, 6, 1) Brandon Bolden (3%, 1, 0) QB/WTE Breakdown KC got their revenge against NE last week, winning a playoff-esque game 23-16. Tom Brady (upgrade) hasn’t looked great in recent weeks, but the offensive struggles may be more a reflection of the weapons around him, than Brady himself. On tap is an atrocious Cincinnati squad that is clearly vying for the No. 1 pick in next years draft. The matchup is the only reason to consider Brady a borderline QB1, if you have a better option, it may be prudent to go that direction. Positive game-script may work against Brady, the Patriots defense and run-game can likely win this game without help from the passing game. That being said, CIN surrenders 20.8 FPPG to QBs and 20.7 to WRs. Don’t get cute in fantasy playoffs, Julian Edleman (upgrade) has been the only serviceable pass catcher in this offense. Mohamed Sanu, N’Keal Harry, Phillip Dorsett, and Jakobi Meyers are too inconsistent to trust. Sanu carries the #revengegame narrative, but he’s a risky proposition due to volume in an otherwise great matchup. Since his monster 14 target game in Week 11, he’s only seen 6 targets combined over the last three weeks. Harry only played two snaps due to injury, and it’s unclear how much healthier he’ll be in just a weeks time. It’s anyone’s guess who sees volume, so all are recommended fades. RB Breakdown Similar to the passing game mess, the Patriots backfield has devolved into a 3-man RBBC. Sony Michel (upgrade standard) received his second-lowest touch total last week for the season, carrying just 5 times for 8-yards, adding one catch for an additional yard. He simply hasn’t looked great this season, and can’t be used in the passing game due to his suspect hands. Still, CIN has been absolutely ravaged on the ground this season, giving up a league worst 156-yards rushing per game. If given the volume, this is a matchup Michel should thrive in. Get him active as an RB2. James White (upgrade PPR) is also in play as a flex in the great matchup - CIN surrenders 21.7 FPPG to RBs - there should be enough fantasy points to go around. Rex Burkhead and Brandon Bolden aren’t fantasy options, and exist solely to be a thorn in the side of White and Michel owners.
Bengals
Opp (NE) Pass DVOA: #1 Opp (NE) Run DVOA: #6 Opp (NE) Weighted DEF: #1 Injuries to Watch DEF (NE): LB Ja’Whaun Bentley (Q) DL Bryon Cowart (Q) CB Jason McCourty (Q) DL Danny Shelton (Q) Injuries to Watch OFF (CIN): WR A.J. Green (D) TE Tyler Eifert (Q) WR John Ross III (Q) WR Auden Tate (OUT-IR) Key WCB matchups: Tyler Boyd vs. Stephon Gilmore, John Ross vs. Jonathan Jones, Alex Erickson vs. J.C. Jackson (Rotoworld) Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Tyler Boyd (22%) Auden Tate (16%) Alex Erickson (15%) Joe Mixon (9%) Tyler Eifert (9%) C.J. Uzomah (9%) RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Joe Mixon (59%, 26, 4) Giovani Bernard (40%, 6, 3) QB/WTE Breakdown The reinstallment of Andy Dalton (downgrade) has made the Bengals competitive, but a matchup against one of the NFL’s premier defenses isn’t the time to chase points, despite the recent resurgence of Cincinnati’s offense. Dalton isn’t a fantasy option this week. I wouldn’t bet on any of the Bengals passing options this week during fantasy semi-finals. Auden Tate is done for the season, making John Ross an intriguing option next week - CIN plays MIA, Ross should be scooped now in anticipation for that matchup. Tyler Boyd (sit) faces the league's premier CB in Stephon Gilmore, fade him. RB Breakdown Due to matchup, Joe Mixon (downgrade) is the only option for CIN that should be considered. The matchup is awful - NE cedes only 11 FPPG to RBs - so fade if possible. His volume should keep him in the RB2 range, but this week projects as a floor game. Score Prediction: Patriots 27, Bengals 16
[Game Preview] Playoff Edition Championship Round - Minnesota (14-3) at Philadelphia Eagles(14-3)
Minnesota Vikings (14-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
The Eagles proved the pundits and Vegas wrong as they pulled out a win against the Atlanta Falcons last Saturday despite being the first number one seed to be an underdog in their first game of the playoffs. The Eagles welcome the Minnesota Vikings to Lincoln Financial Field where they are again in the Underdog role as Vegas has them a +3. The team and the city embraced the moniker as Amazon as sold out of German Sheppard mask 2 separate times now since the masked were donned by Eagles DE Chris Long and RT Lane Johnson following the win against Atlanta. Overcoming the odds will be a little harder this week as the Vikings finished the season with the same record as the Eagles at 13-3 and boast one of, if not the best defense in the league this season. The Vikings have an impressive front seven which includes Linval Joseph, Everson Griffen, Anthony Barr and Eric Kendricks, the unit is great at creating pressure and is second only to the Eagles in stopping the run. They also boast an impressive secondary that can play man to man and cover anyone in the league. Pederson and Reich will have their work cut out for them craft a game plan that will allow Nick Foles to succeed. I expect a lot of quick passes and leaning on the run game with some screens and the occasional shot to keep the Vikings off balance. On the other side of the ball, the Vikings have a backup of their own leading the offense in Case Keenum, however Keenum has been at the helm since week 3. Keenum has weapons on the outside in Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen to go along with big Kyle Rudolph at TE. The key for the Eagles will be getting pressure on Keenum which is where he struggled last week. The Eagles front seven has been great at putting pressure on the QB this season, so expect Graham, Cox, Curry, Long, Jernigan and Barnett to get after it. The game will be tough one, but the Eagles have played extremely well at home this season going 8-1 with the only loss coming to the Cowboys in a meaningless game where the starters were rested. The home crowd will try to push their team over the top to make it to the Super Bowl for the first time since the 2004 season.
Record VS. Spread: Philadelphia 11-6, Minnesota 11-6
Where to Watch on TV
FOX will broadcast Saturday’s game. Joe Buck will handle the play-by-play duties and Troy Aikman will provide analysis. Erin Andrews and Chris Myers will report from the sidelines.
Calling the game on 94WIP and the Eagles Radio Network will be Merrill Reese, the NFL’s longest-tenured play-by-play announcer (41st season). Joining Reese in the radio booth will be former Eagles All-Pro wide receiver Mike Quick, while Howard Eskin will report from the sidelines.
Location
Station
Frequency
Philadelphia, PA
WIP-FM
94.1 FM and 610 AM
Allentown, PA
WCTO-FM
96.1 FM
Atlantic City/South Jersey
WENJ-FM
97.3 FM
Levittown, PA
WBCB-AM
1490 AM
Northumberland, PA
WEGH-FM
107.3 FM
Pottsville, PA
WPPA-AM
1360 AM
Reading, PA
WEEU-AM
830 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD
WAFL-FM
97.7 FM
Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA
WEJL-FM
96.1 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD
WAFL-FM
97.7 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD
WEJL-AM
630 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD
WBAX-AM
1240 AM
Williamsport, PA
WBZD-FM
93.3 FM
Wilmington, DE
WDEL-FM/AM
101.7 FM
York/LancasteHarrisburg, PA
WSOX-FM
96.1 FM
Philadelphia Spanish Radio
Rickie Ricardo, Macu Berral and Gus Salazar will handle the broadcast in Spanish on Mega 105.7 FM in Philadelphia and the Eagles Spanish Radio Network.
Location
Station
Frequency
Philadelphia, PA
LA MEGA
105.7 FM
Allentown, PA
WSAN
1470 AM
Atlantic City, NJ
WIBG
1020 AM; 101.3 FM
Vikings Radio
Vikings Radio Network Paul Allen enters his 16th season in 2017 as the Vikings radio play-by-play voice is KFAN radio mid-day personality. Joining Allen as the color commentator was former Vikings linebacker and coach Pete Bercich.
National Radio
Westwood OneKevin Harlan (play-by-play) and Trent Green (analyst) will call the game broadcast. Ross Tucker will report from the sidelines.
October 28th, 1962 at Metropolitan Stadium in Minneapolis, MN. Minnesota Vikings 31 – Philadelphia Eagles 21
Points Leader
The Philadelphia Eagles lead the Minnesota Vikings (612-587)
Coaches Record
Doug Pederson: 1-0 against the Vikings
Mike Zimmer: 0-1 against Eagles
Coaches Head to Head
Doug Pederson vs Mike Zimmer: Pederson leads 1-0
Quarterback Record
Nick Foles: Against Vikings: 0-2
Case Keenum: Against Eagles: 0-0
Quarterbacks Head to Head
Nick Foles vs Case Keenum: First meeting between the QBs
Records per Stadium
Record @ Lincoln Financial Field: Eagles lead Vikings 3-1
Record @ US Bank Stadium: N/A
Rankings and Last Meeting Information
AP Pro 32 Ranking
Eagles No. 5 - Vikings No. 2
Record
Eagles: 14-3
Vikings: 14-3
Last Meeting and Last at Site
Sunday, October 23rd, 2017
Eagles 21 - Vikings 10
The Eagles defense sacked Sam Bradford 6 times and Josh Huff returned a kickoff 98 yards in the 21-10 victory at the Linc, in a game that same 5 turnovers between both teams in the first quarter, three from the Eagles.
The Eagles defense held the Vikings defense to 301 yards and Asante Samuel returned an errant Tavaris Jackson pass for a TD while a late short pass and 71 yard scamper by Brian Westbrook secured the Wild Card round win for the Eagles in Minneapolis.
Eagles - Video The Eagles welcomed the Falcons in the the Linc where they have played well all season and continued that trend Saturday. The Eagles struggled early fumbling the ball 4 times in the first half and giving it away twice one of which was a short field of a muffled punt. The Eagles defense was able to hold the Falcons to just 10 points in the first half. The Eagles were able to come away with a TD and added a last second 53 yard FG to close out the half and bring the game with in a point. The Eagles added two more FGs in the second half, while the defense shutout the Falcons for the 15-10 win. The Falcons had a chance to win it at the end, but the Eagles defense held strong on the late goal line stand denying a Matt Ryan and Julio Jones 3 times. Following the game the Eagles embraced the underdog moniker as Chris Long and Lane Johnson donned dog masks.
Vikings - Video – The Vikings came out firing on all cylinders to start the game as they jumped out to a 17-0 lead in the first half and picked off Drew Brees twice. Brees and company were not going to go away quietly though as they fought back in the second half. Brees through 2 TD passes to Michael Thomas to bring that game within 3 before Forbath added a field goal to stretch the lead to 6. The games excitement level went through the roof at US Bank stadium. Alvin Kamara ran it in with 3 minutes left to give the Saints their first lead of the game. A minute and a half later Forbath kicked his third FG of the game for the Vikings to give them back the lead before just over a minute as Brees drove the Saints down the first and Lutz added a FG of his own to take the lead back. With just 25 seconds on the clock Sean Payton mocked the Viking faithful before Keenum completed a pass to Diggs to take them up to the 39 yard line before launching another pass to Diggs which he caught and spun away from the defender to go 61 yards for the game winning touchdown in dramatic fashion.|
Connections
Vikings OC Pat Shurmur has spent 13 seasons with the Eagles - 1999-2001 as the OL/TEs Coach, 2002-08 as the QBs Coach and 2013-15 as the Offensive Coordinator. Shurmur served as the Eagles interim head coach for the 2015 regular season finale, a 35-30 win over the Giants, after the dismissal of Chip Kelly the previous week.
Vikings QB Sam Bradford played for Philadelphia in 2015, setting Eagles franchise records for completions in a season (346) and completion percentage in a season (65.0). The Eagles acquired Bradford via trade on March 10, 2014 from St. Louis and traded him to Minnesota on September 3, 2016.
Vikings LB Eric Kendricks is the younger brother of Eagles LB Mychal Kendricks.
Vikings Director of Sports Medicine/Head Athletic Trainer Eric Sugarman, Coordinator of Rehabilitation/Assistant Athletic Trainer Tom Hunkele and Assistant Athletic Trainer Rob Roche all spent time with the Eagles prior to joining the Vikings.
Eagles DT Beau Allen is a Minnetonka, MN native and was named to the Minnesota Vikings All-State HS Football Team in 2009.
Vikings DT Sharrif Floyd grew up in Philadelphia and attended George Washington High School.
Vikings CB Xavier Rhodes started alongside Eagles LB Nigel Bradham while at Florida State.
Vikings DT Sharrif Floyd was teammates with Eagles TE Trey Burton, K Caleb Sturgis and S Jaylen Watkins at Florida.
2018 Pro Bowlers
Eagles
Vikings
OT Lane Johnson
WR Adam Thielen (Starter)
QB Carson Wentz (Starter)
DE Everson Griffen (Starter)
TE Zach Ertz (Starter)
CB Xavior Rhodes (Starter)
G Brandon Brooks (Starter)
LB Anthony Barr
DT Fletcher Cox (Starter)
S Harrison Smith (1st Alt)
FS Malcom Jenkins
DT Linval Joseph (2nd Alt)
C Jason Kelce (1st Alt)
Lb Eric Kendricks (3rd Alt)
DE Brandon Graham (1st Alt)
CB Jalen Mills (3rd Alt)
K Jake Elliot (2nd Alt)
ST Kame Grugier-Hill (2nd Alt)
General
Referee: Ed Hochuli
Since Chairman & CEO Jeffrey Lurie’s first full season in 1995 (23 seasons), Philadelphia has qualified for six NFC Championships (26.1%).
The Eagles’ six conference championship appearances (2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2008 and 2017) since 1995 are the 4th-most in the NFL, trailing only New England (13), Pittsburgh (eight) and Green Bay (seven). Since 2001, Philadelphia is tied with Pittsburgh for the 2nd-most such appearances (six), behind New England (12).
The last time Philadelphia hosted an NFC title game was during the 2004 season (1/23/05 vs. Atlanta - W, 27-10).
Philadelphia finished the regular season with a franchise record-tying 13 wins (also 2004), tying Minnesota, New England and Pittsburgh for the best record in the NFL.
The Eagles are 14-7 (.667) all-time at home in the playoffs, including a 5-3 (.625) mark at Lincoln Financial Field.
Philadelphia has produced a 14-3 (.824) record at home under head coach Doug Pederson, which is the best home record in the NFL over the last two seasons (including playoffs). The Eagles also own the best home record in the NFL this season at 8-1 (.889).
Philadelphia has outscored opponents 244-117 (+127) at home this season, allowing just 13.0 points per game.
Philadelphia led the NFL in red zone TD efficiency (65.5%), time of possession (32:41) and opponent rushing yards per game (79.2). The Eagles also tied with New England for the NFL lead in point differential (+162).
Philadelphia’s 457 points ranked 3rd in the NFL, behind L.A. Rams (478) and New England (458). The Eagles’ 457 points were also the 2nd-most in team history, trailing only their 2014 production (474).
Philadelphia led the NFL in rushing defense (79.2), posting their lowest mark since 1991 (71.0). The Eagles’ 79.2 opponent rushing yards per game were the fewest allowed by an NFL team since the 2014 Lions (69.3).
Philadelphia ranked 3rd in the NFL in rushing yards per game (132.2), behind Jacksonville (141.4) and Dallas (132.2). The Eagles also ranked 3rd in third-down defense (32.2%) and fourth-down offense (65.4%).
Philadelphia produced the 4th-most takeaways in the NFL (31), trailing only Baltimore (34), Jacksonville (33) and Detroit (32). The Eagles ranked 4th in the NFL in turnover differential (+11), behind Baltimore (+17), Kansas City (+15) and L.A. Chargers (+12).
OL/DL Matchups IMAGE Note: Pressure Rate and Yards Before Contact are projected numbers based on the starters' grades and are adjusted for injuries. All other stats are based on this season's data
Tm
Press%
SkConv
YBCon
Runs ins. 5 yd ln/gm
TD ins. 5 yd ln%
PB Adv.
RB Adv
MIN (OL)
4.2
10
1.5
1.1
39
-13
-20
PHI (DL)
7.3
19
1.36
0.6
33
PHI (OL)
4.4
16
1.84
1
31
-12
6
MIN (DL)
6.9
16
1.43
0.9
40
Stats to Know
Trench Warfare
Despite having a much higher average grade of starting Offensive Linemen, the Eagles' OL has allowed the same number of pressures as Minnesota's (154). The Vikings have allowed 12 fewer sacks, however. The Eagles' OL edged the Vikings' in terms of Pass Block Efficiency, which measures pressure allowed on a per-snap basis with weighting toward sacks allowed. On the other side of the ball, Minnesota has an Interior Defender positionally in the top 10 (9th) in Run Stop %, Linval Joseph, while the Eagles have an Edge Defender positionally in the top 5 (4th) in Run Stop %, Vinny Curry. As far as Pass Rushers go, the Eagles have 2 Edge Defenders in the top 20 for Pass Rush Productivity--also a snap-weighted stat--in Brandon Graham and Vinny Curry, while Minnesota has 2 Edge Defenders in the top 20 for total pressures generated, Everson Griffen and Danielle Hunter. On the Interior, Vikings cannot much the pressure generation of the Eagles, with Fletcher Cox leading the way and spreading the rest out just about evenly between Beau Allen and Timmy Jernigan. The Vikings also have even pressure generation between Tom Johnson and Linval Joseph, but the Eagles main DIs have generated about 30 more pressures in total, in the regular season. Across the entire Defensive Lines, including all players, in the regular season the Vikings have generated 232 pressures to Philly's 306. Both Defensive Lines can get after it. --Courtesy of PFF Elite|
Matchups to Watch
Eagles Offensive Line vs Vikings Defensive Front
The Vikings enter the NFCCG with the most talented defensive front the Eagles will face on the season. The Eagles defensive matchups will be discussed later on but this match up here is probably the most important match up for the Eagles to win this game. If you only took the word of Vikings fans, you’d walk away thinking everyone on the Vikings is literally Jesus and the Eagles don’t have a chance. We know that is not true since the Vikings do not have a Pro Bowl safety and that makes them fallible. Up the middle they feature the former but still quite literal giant Linval Joseph who finished the season as the 11th best Interior Defender per PFF and 10th best Defensive Tackle on NFL1000. Joseph is monster against the run and pretty solid as an interior rusher as well. His presence gives Zimmer the opportunity to send the blitzes he wants to send with regularity. Joseph is a strong finisher and can more than adequately handle himself on double teams. Next to him is Tom Johnson, who is PFFs 53rd rated interior defender and NFL1000s 15th. Johnson is a pretty reliable 3-tech that is good as a pass rusher and in the run game. The Vikings also have a great EDGE rushing duo in Everson Griffen and Danielle Hunter. Griffen finished as the 10th best EDGE rusher on PFF, which is misleading given his score was an elite 90.1. He also finished as a 3rd best 4-3 DE per NFL1000. He is a game wrecker and is excellent as a pass rusher and run defender. Danielle Hunter obviously overcompensates for his girly name and openly carries his guns on Sunday’s. Per PFF Hunter ranks as the 32nd EDGE rusher and the 20th ranked 4-3 DE per NFL1000. They are as formidable a pair as the Eagles have faced all season on a line that is as talented as the Eagles as a whole. This doesn’t include Anthony Barr and Eric Kendricks who will also look to party in the backfield Sunday as Mike Zimmer is not afraid to bring his patented Double-A Gap blitzes. Fortunately, the Eagles have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL even without Jason Peters. Lane Johnson and Jason Kelce are the best players at their respective positions in the league and 1st team All-Pros. Brandon Brooks is also deserving of All-Pro honors even though he wasn’t recognized as one. Stefan Wisniewski has been a very reliable left guard all season even with some bumps in pass protection. Big V has been up and down this season at LT but would start at tackle for a number of teams in the NFL. This is the premier match up in this game and could really help determine the winner. With Foles at QB, the Eagles coaches and OL must consistently execute the game plan well against a defensive line that has the ability to take over games. The Eagles will need to find a way to be balanced against this group while keeping Foles clean. It won’t be an easy battle for the Eagles and Vikings may get their share of wins, but if they play well enough they could help control the game. The trenches can make all the difference.
Eagles Defensive Line vs. Vikings Offensive Line
The reason why Mike Zimmer had eye problems the last few years was due to having to watch his offensive line. Gone are the days of human turnstile TJ Clemmings. The Vikings made a strong effort to reshape their OL this past offseason; in the process, they elevated their offenses level of play. Make no mistake; while the unit is improved it’s still vulnerable to good defensive lines. The Eagles have the best defensive line the Vikings will face this season. Rookie Pat Elflein has solidified the Center position for the Vikings and has had a solid year despite ranking 32nd on PFF among all Centers. Free agent acquisition Riley Reiff has been solid at Left Tackle finishing as the 14th best Left Tackle on NFL1000 and the 60th best tackle per PFF this season. Don’t let the wide variation in grades fool you, he is better than anything they’ve had of late and it has been a noticeable difference. Old man Joe Berger occupies one guard spot for the Vikings and has had a solid season for them finishing as PFFs 15th ranked guard. Berger has been equally good in run and pass protection. These three have helped steady a very bad offensive line but are they good enough to help hide the holes that have presented themselves of late? At the end of the regular season, starting guard Nick Easton landed on IR. The Vikings decided to shift Mike Remmers inside to fill his position while starting Rashod Hill at Right Tackle. Needless to say Hill has been a liability outside for the Vikings and will see a lot of Brandon Graham during the game. Hill struggled a lot with Cam Jordan last week and it doesn’t get easier this week. Fletcher Cox is fresh off a game wrecking performances and looking to attack the suspect Vikings interior line. The Eagles can bring the heat from all spots along the line and can do it with more regularity than almost every team in the NFL. The Vikings struggled for part of the game last week. They’ll likely struggle again this week in this department. How much is to be determined but the Eagles certainly need their defensive line to wreck the Vikings game plan in order to win. They’ll be an influence in this game it’s just a matter of how much.
Nick Foles vs. Vikings Pass Defense
The Eagles enter the game with one of the best rushing attacks in football thanks to good running backs and one of the toughest, well-executed run schemes in the league. Like the Eagles, the Vikings defense is excellent against the run. The Eagles will use the run game to help put the offense in more favorable situations and to keep the Vikings off balance but at some point Nick Foles is going to have to help the offense move the ball down the field. The Vikings defense is very talented in the secondary featuring a lesser Malcolm Jenkins in Harrison Smith, who is a candidate for DPOY. The Vikings use Smith everywhere and for everything. He finished as one of the best players in the NFL per PFF this season. Andrew Sendejo is in the concussion protocal but appears to be trending towards playing this week. Sendejo is the more traditional deep safety for the Vikings whose presence allows Harrision Smith to do his thing. The Vikings also feature one of the leagues most talented corners in Xavier Rhodes. Opposite him you’ll see 3rd year pro Trae Waynes. Rhodes is ranked as the 31st CB per PFF while Waynes is ranked 59th. These ranks can be a bit deceiving, especially for Rhodes. Waynes has become a good cornerback the last few years but is someone offenses would rather target than Xavier Rhodes. The Vikings also rotate Terrance Newman and Mackenzie Alexander into the game plan. The Eagles should be aware when either of these two are on the field and attack them with Nelson Agholor. Nelly has the speed and quickness to beat these two cornerbacks and make plays for the offense. Alshon Jeffery has had the time of his life against the Vikings considering he has done very well against them since 2013. The Vikings defense disguises a lot of their coverages and play smart football. They are very difficult to beat through the air especially when you factor in their pass rush. They are beatable when the rest of the pieces are put together on offense but it is going to have to take the Nick Foles the Eagles had in the second half of their first playoff game for the duration of this one. Otherwise, it could be a long day for the Eagles offense.
Eagles Defense vs. Vikings Weapons
This will be one of the more difficult matchups for the Eagles defense on the season when they take on the plethora of weapons and diverse offensive scheme the Vikings bring to the table. The Vikings enter with the 3rd ranked passing offense per DVOA on the season and it only makes sense when you look at the seasons Case Keenum, Stefon Diggs, and Adam Thielen have had. Both receivers are able to line up outside or in the slot and are excellent route runners with even better hands. It’s pretty amazing watching these two receivers go to work except for the fact the Eagles have to find a way to neutralize them this week. Diggs and Thielen finished 8th and 9th respectively per PFF among all WRs. Diggs finished as NFL1000 7th ranked outside receiver while Thielen finished as NFL1000 2nd ranked slot receiver in the NFL. Both are able to diagnose coverages, beat press man coverage, and find soft spots in zone defenses. Did I mention the hands? They’ll catch every Keenum YOLO ball when his ambitions are unable to match his arm talent. Speaking of Keenum where the heck did that come from? Say what you want about his future outlook but the season he has had is a testament to his ability to at least be good and the coaching staff’s ability to help him succeed. Keenum finished as PFFs 8th ranked QB and NFL1000 10th ranked QB for the 2017 season. He is able to diagnose coverage and find his receivers. He’s also built up a lot of chemistry with his receivers and trusts them to make plays with the football when he puts the ball in position. Keenum has been pretty good under pressure on the season, especially when outside the pocket. The Eagles will need to keep him in the pocket while rushing him hard and fast forcing him to make mistakes. We saw in the second half last week when he is under a lot of pressure he can make a lot of bonehead throws. He’s been fortunate on some to have talented receivers to make plays but has also done a good job putting passes in places that won’t hurt the team. The pass rush he’ll face Sunday is one of the best he’ll see. The Vikings will need to continue to beat man coverage given the emphasis the Eagles place on it. The Eagles need to be mindful of rub routes and all of the mesh routes/pick plays Shurmur likes to run to free open his receivers. The Eagles will be better served by mixing their coverages more often than normal. Confuse Keenum while forcing him into taking hits and making poor decisions. The Vikings still have the reliable tight end Kyle Rudolph. While he is down from the pace he set last year, he is also a reliable receiver and a popular red zone target for the Vikings. The Eagles need to be very wary of who is on the field and force the Vikings into 3rd and long situations. The the Vikings offense is nowhere near as effective on 3rd and long as they are in more favorable situations. Latavious Murray and Jerrick McKinnon are solid and complimentary backs but they aren’t the dynamic rusher that Dalvin Cook is. The Vikings offense took a solid hit when he went down. The Eagles will need to continue to dominate opposing rushing attacks while keeping the Vikings offense in worse looks to prevent them from winning their matchups more often. The receiving duo of Diggs and Thielen is probably the best starting pair the Eagles will face this season. The Eagles will more that earn that W if they manage these two.
NFL Betting News, Match-Ups and Trends For Week 5 on Thu, Oct 2020 by Shazman. Forum Home. More Top Stories. More in NFL NBA NCAAFB NCAABB MLB NHL Nascar. Top Public Bets #1 263 Baltimore Ravens 98% #2 253 Detroit Lions 94% #3 271 Green Bay Packers 92% #4 365 LSU 89% #5 265 Cincinnati Bengals 88% The Sporting Life team look at the big trends and Punting Pointers from the first four weeks of the Premier League season. After the shortest mid-season break in living memory, just a month into ... Premier League picks and predictions for EPL soccer Matchday 2. Find EPL tips and Premier League best bets for - - - - - - - This article is part of our Betting on Soccer series. There are a couple weeks every season when the Premier League turns into the Bundesliga and every team looks like Bayern Munich-light. While it'd take hours to track, Gameweek 2 may have been one of the highest scoring gameweeks ever with 44 goals scored in 10 matches. Premier League Over/Under. Within Premier League betting lines the Over/Under for an English soccer game is traditionally set at 2.5 goals. It works as a good gauge for the market, but EPL fans ...
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So far have been looking at the goals scored/conceded from http://www.soccerstats.com/trends.asp?league=england as input to a Poisson model to estimate the r... For his final pick today, Ninja has a bet on Crystal Palace and Brighton in the lone match in the English Premier League. Brighton are looking to create some separation from relegation group. The Bankroll Football betting experts squad breakdown for you the upcoming Premier League fixture! Winning tips and predictions for the most important matches on the card. Virtual Football League Betting tip, secrets, strategies and system is the best video on VFL betting you want to check. Download FREE book: https://clickate.... In this video we attempt to predict the scores for week 8 of the 2019/20 Premier League Season. Join in the action by leaving your predictions in the comments section for a chance to be selected ...
