The Meld II (19): Path-finder.
As the sun began sinking, Nahrl realised he had underestimated badly. On the other side of the basin the City seeming far closer than it actually was. The fault in review proving the madly towering scale of the splintered ruined towers, combined with far taller trees deeper along on this side as well. Both factors combining to deeply confuse his normally accurate sense of distance via bamboozling the measure of relative scales. There being a paradigm shift over here. Though occasional forced backtracking didn’t help them reach their destination quickly either. As if on cue he heard another approaching Drone.
‘To cover.’ Nahrl signalled.
With deep reluctance, but necessary haste, the party hustling off the animal track. Each member - carefully - merging among the grown denser, stranger undergrowth. Ideally disappearing under the eaves of only passive large rubbery leaved plants. Avoiding contact with the increasingly prolific and problematic hanging vines and other menaces. Some of the trailing plants, lately waxing in numbers, moved in alarming ways. More carnivore, it guessed ancient science altered, plantimal forms. Judging on variations of feature and colour several species. A few deceptively beautiful, scenting richly attractive as well, probably luring occasional victims that way.
Perhaps it cautiously looking upward rather than down tripped Gryll. The Rogue emitting a sharp wordless electronic burst of surprise whilst plummeting from sight. Their Korvax friend vanishing into a previously unseen drop, trailing a scatter of netted plant growth with him, a profusion once matted across the gap possibly only accidentally concealing the now exposed void.
That event, in part, glanced under the optics of Efor, as rear guard, the Gek cursing out, ‘Gryll!’ over comms., whilst the Sentinel drew nearer. The machine floating down the natural path they had lately taken, only the Drone, red lens flaring, arriving upon them from the opposite direction. Akin to the Pentacle Minus One, the Sentinels currently also forced to patrol natural conduits, else, unlike the friends, they zoomed along high above the canopy. Efor easily understanding, given the hanging banes and so on, why some wise animals had created safer trails via habitual movements. Although the animals also ventured off trail to forage on occasion most doing so tentatively with great care. Nature a good teacher.
They had all witnessed what happened to startled bolting animals rushing wildly off their own paths in panic. At this end of the jungle, the vines oft catching unlucky ones. Some manner of thorn injected neurotoxin suspected. Anyway, the deaths jerky, quick and loathsome. Presently the more usual in many woods semi clear space between the canopy and the undergrowth full with those tangling jungle style spilling liana like vines. Some of which, (confusingly far from all), retaining the aforementioned animalistic predatory qualities.
Meanwhile, back in the perilous moment, the Drone gliding forward, drifting effortlessly upon a sophisticated anti gravity drive. The thing only pausing to smoothly pivot in mid air as if sniffing, though clearly attracted by the previous sound of Gryll’s fall. It then followed on with a slower virtually stalking level of creeping advance, shifting cautiously almost as if nervous while still buzzing ever closer orientated to the hole and via loose grouping the concealed party too. All the hiding above ground companions growing more tense and still. Thoughts of Gryll’s fate deferred momentarily by their own requirement to stay unnoticed.
The Drone ultimately halting a little shy. The mechanical mind computing its best reactive options whilst listening for further discordant noises via sharp microphones. It wisely hesitant to advance deeper off the trail into the often lethal undergrowth beyond. Though the friends unsure how deadly the vines might be to a machine, perhaps it merely didn’t want forced to wound or destroy to break loose. That being one advantage here - for the Pentacle Minus One - the Drones seeming to know, and to avoid, deep jungle complications. Thus the friends as long as they stayed hidden and remained still might yet be safe. Although the sound of Gryll’s fall a bit of ill luck.
Grim games of retreat or hide and seek presently too familiar. The area, nearest they guessed to the City limits, had ways suspiciously hiving with mechanised patrols. It as if the Sentinels intent upon keeping people out, else people or other unknowns cut off and imprisoned within. Many times Drones or Quads had forced the friends to stealthily backtrack and skirt around seeking a better gap in the defence only to be moved on again, primarily using those safer crisscrossing animal trails. Thus it would go until Nahrl, in deep frustration, would get a little bolder and chance them to slip around some judged narrow chink in another defensive ring. The cordon proving many layered, though really it was less geometric than a simple ring in action due to the random forest pathways. Nahrl oft fearing they would get caught in the middle of this dangerously monitored zone, exposed and attacked from all accessible directions with no sane escape off trail. Using a jetpack under the canopy a virtual suicide via vine. Even if the thorns did not penetrate shields, the tangling would immobilise and delay making anyone snared easy Sentinel targets.
Luckily the Forest - for all its exotic menaces - especially towards Efor -, or so he still claimed, also provided ample cover on the slightly safer fringes of the well judged animal trails at least in selected spots. Machine noises by the Drones and Quads usually giving their approach away reasonably clearly in advance. The party however, in their traverse, forced to move slowly, constantly listening with their suit microphones turned up, or their ears straining. Whilst despite precautions a few too close calls kept everyone stressed. Yet, so far, they had remained undetected with the exception of one previous mishap: The event when Efor shot the shrieking initially hidden ground dwelling tentacle sprouting hunched plantimal thing that had ambushed him, no pun intended. That encounter precipitating an especially tense rout. The group fleeing - alerted - Drone attention down various tracks. The unholy hooting shrieks of the weird plant animal mix when it fought and died easily rallying Sentinel attention and ire.
Despite the one aberration, simply stealthily retreating or taking to concealment for a time often proved good enough, whilst that lone chase occurred before they entered the main body of this apparent Sentinel cordon. It also happening before they got surrounded by especially dense masses of the troublesome hanging vines. As they neared the City outskirts matters ranging from bad to worse in multiple ways. If the SmugglerGek flew directly into the heart of the City they probably had no idea just how lucky they had been in avoiding a jungle trek. Although Nahrl, as ever, did a diligent Scouting job as a master of the path-finding craft, including being a Fox expert at avoiding rather than finding trouble. As Sentinel encounters waxed frequent, rather than sporadic, it getting harder work.
Therefore they had toiled in increasing despair - anything but directly - towards their desire the sun steadily sinking, that blessed orb’s kindly presence waning early, its light diffused, horribly barred, by the barrier of the jungles intimidating growth. In a way the shade aiding their cover from angry machines, but it hardly boosted their morale. Meanwhile, the currently menacing Drone scanned a local berry heavy thorn bush with suspiciously luscious looking fleshy yellow fruit. Then seemingly content, began to float away. Efor felt he was sweating Gek stink inside his helmet, despite temperature controlling. To him the cursed unnatural predatory flora bad enough without machines congregating as well. Yet since he donned his helmet and turned his suit olfactory sensors off, the traverse had become more tolerable on one level at least. It a hard price for him to pay though - as a Gek: Not scenting his environment directly with his own nostrils that made him feel somewhat sense blind. Though he found himself naturally increasingly relying upon optical and sonic input instead.
The sweaty weary Gek cursing inwardly, yearning to get away from the freakish claustrophobic living domain. The Damn Drone too typically taking its time about moving on, it only going a few Gek paces distance before pausing again, to scan some other relatively mundane object in the vicinity. Efor often wondering precisely what the machines scanned for, though maybe it something less obvious than it appeared. Perhaps it sought signs of material instabilities in the structure of reality: Fluxes in the quantum foam or other esoteric hokum well beyond his level of general science learning - well mostly - ignoring his occult days.
Whatever the machine obsession, it left Efor desirous of screaming. Could such routines be programmed in, to deliberately test the nerve of any trespassers they hunted? A big part of him wanted to end his tense vigil by leaping up from his crouched cover to shoot the cursed thing down without mercy. He envisioned that action several times over, it seeming a grand Gek fantasy. Sadly although decisive martial action might appear the quick solution to move along unmolested, more probably it very much not so. Rash action only summoning more of the damned things, beginning a grim too standard escalation of hunting reinforcement.
Truly, it would not surprise him if Drones did loiter - simply to act as tempting targets - offering themselves up as disposable bait. Coming under fire being a fine way to pinpoint and reveal hostiles to their wider conglomerate. If they did play such selfless games, it actually rather cunning for spawning bots.
Given how it usually played out, Efor knew staying concealed the best option of all, yet every time they were trapped he struggled to retain his necessary immobility. The Gek now appreciating how much he lacked the Foxes - at need - almost meditative levels of deep inner and outer stillness. Their patience in particular when hiding and stalking both impressing and sometimes frustrating the spawn out of him. By comparison, staying perfectly still, for him as a Gek, often a battle of fraying willpower over natural fidgety inclinations. Worse, he personally also felt a betraying inner part of him yearned to give all their positions away in a deliberate devilish manner. A mad impulse perhaps of the former CultGek tempting him. How he hated that horrid being - he had fled away from - so long ago. Evil thoughts from that SurvivorGek still ironically making him itch to do dire things. Yet such simply his unhappy - once broken - mind being converse, when he dwelt too much upon haunting old matters best left to wither and die.
Occasionally remembrance of an ill history can spawn with your better nature. Mocking the hard won successes, claiming there actually no hope and no escape from the Gek you used to be. As his Seniors had oft lectured: The pyramidal tiers of the Cult is all! Beyond such advancement only a soul devouring darkness. You fed the Darks, or the Darks fed upon you! That was the devil’s compact. Once in the Cult, always a Cultist… The Dark Taint - not a matter easily expelled - it seeped in deep to meld firmly with your being. Forbidden knowledge rooting in your cells as if some malignant cancerous mutating blight or roguish, (off kinder remit), invasive nanotech machines.
How do you escape from yourself after you have become what you become? Of course, some of that a lie designed to help keep New Initiates bound to their New Masters, yet a shadow of truth in there too. The taint did stain you, you were never quite free of it or the same Gek you were before initiation.
‘Bah!’ He complained inwardly turning away from the old - too familiar - horror of his shadowed history. Turning instead to immediate concerns about the lone Sentinel and Gryll. Was Gryll alright? He must have fallen down a sink hole, perhaps dropping into a deep cave system or even an old Warren living space or tunnel, it being Hellespae after all. Unlike any other world he had traversed, this one a labyrinth of ancient and modern underground - manufactured workings - not just natural tunnels and caves though there remained plenty of those as well. In some ways, more occurring underground these days - in places - than happened above on the surface. Especially since the return of the Sentinels, the Hellespae Underdarks hiving with banished Tusk and Fox souls, although that not, he realised, the most auspicious way to consider it.
Some of his nasty thoughts probably seeded by memories of the Forest Stink yet wounding his equilibrium. At least Gryll smart enough to remain quiet after his accident. Efor positive the silence just Gryll being sensible, not say the effect of him falling down some unholy ruinous abyss to lie broken. Bah! Gryll had a jetpack and active shields too. No mere fall would easily end the rare Traveller Korvax.
Nonetheless, Efor itched to rush over to the hole to investigate the unexpected happening, even as a potential underground escape from the testing jungle trek. Yet he dared not move whilst the Drone yet lurked so close listening. Again he had to resist that urge to pop up and shoot it. It coming to his mind that if he destroyed the spawning thing they could all jump into the hole to hide from any deeper attention that action might draw. Yet he knew drawing that added attention - stupid - and leaping into an abyss might lead to other issues even if it presently seemed attractive. It proving a harsh wait indeed, when Nahrl lobbed a well aimed stone that had the Drone move off to investigate that sound. Now why didn’t I think of that low tech solution, Efor thought, then realising probably because it was low tech. Bah! You could get too dependent upon machines. When it finally out of range, Efor gave out a great sigh of relief and sprang into physical action. The movement an intense Joy, Joy. Yet he was careful enough to mind his own footing lest he tumble beyond some vegetative edge in an undignified and worse overly loud crashing manner.
It was only belatedly that the Gek judged himself a fool. After all, he could have silently linked into Gryll at any time to ascertain his friends present status including during his hiding vigil. There being no need to rest in ignorant trepidation. Yet in the moments of concealment, thoughts of communication with others had abandoned him. Maybe a good thing, as sometimes it better to stay alert rather than be too distracted by a back and forth babble. Although he had kept up a busy inner monologue in his head with himself that somehow less bothersome distracting.
‘Gryll fell into something.’ Efor nonetheless broadcast by comms., to the others first.
‘Heard him drop.’ Nahrl sent back, soon moving over with Jhasq ranging behind him on one flank, something lethal tactical about that deployment not to mention hunting sinister. In the jungle the Foxes seemed to wax predatory. The way they stalked sending a natural thrill of alarm to the Gek almost activating a prey flight or fight instinct. Yet it was just Nahrl and Jhasq - his friends - he let the cowardly impulse go.
‘You alright down there.’ Nahrl sent, doing the obvious, before Efor framed and transmitted his own planned query. That being what he got for distracting thoughts of Fox Predators hunting him through the undergrowth.
‘Fine.’ Gryll replied lightly as if surprised at anybody even being concerned.
‘So what have you found down there?’ Efor sent turning his torch on to peer into a narrow round shaft that ran perfectly straight. The lengthy hole although well overgrown in places by normal creeping weeds - denoting possible antiquity - had all the signs of a once well cut Terrain Manipulator type escape tunnel. The sort of thing wanderers had a habit of excavating as short cuts to the surface when stuck deep underground. Though Efor mused it could also as easily be an old - no thrills - air shaft of some manner. Somehow it didn’t strike him as a sensible purposeful entrance. There being no ladder or even cut semi hidden hand and foot holes nothing of that aiding civil engineered nature visible anyway.
‘A Fox Warren area, of a sort, although…’ Gryll trailed off for a time. ‘…something else too.’ The Rogue added with a very different - far more serious - not to add mysterious tone.
From above Efor could make out hints of his friends torch light flickering around below though it didn‘t really help him to see much more, not even when combined with some steadier plant based bioluminescence also present. Yet peering down as if through a long non magnifying telescope he did glimpse hints of a blocky overgrown shape directly below that instinctively disturbed him slightly, though he could not immediately appreciate why at that distance. He didn’t dwell too much on it though, partly because, of late, so very much disturbing him. Being half freaked out seemed his present mode of the moment. Strange what you can get used to, including a constant ambiance of terror.
‘Coming down.’ Efor stated before leaping in cushioning his fall via short taps of his jetpack. The Gek veering off slightly from the protruding object directly below. Although he landed a little awkwardly to one side of the block, Efor felt instantly safer with all the primary jungle growth now a good distance above, better yet with mostly a fine deep stone barrier between him and it. Truly Joy, Joy.
Without a word Nahrl then Jhasq also slipped down to join their colleagues also using a little jet power to avoid colliding with the central object and to land well enough.
‘Does it run our way.’ Nahrl asked immediately, whilst looking around, his mind still set firmly on the journey ahead.
Efor judging even their Scout happy to potentially get away from among the trees, in his case to avoid the increasingly troublesome Sentinel patrols now taxing even his stealthy guidance. Actually Nahrl had long been looking for ways underground ever since they entered the hanging vine jungle style part of the Forest biome, without luck in that side quest until now. The only hollows previously observed being some too obvious animal style - dug out - burrows that Nahrl considered best avoided, a choice Efor firmly agreed with not liking the idea of what might lurk in those locations. Something about those holes, maybe another smell, also giving him the creeps. It probably amusing Nahrl now though that Gryll - by sheer mishap - had perhaps found what he could not, despite all his scouting craft. Although that they had striven to avoid straying off the animal trails, (as much as possible), probably ill helping with locating underworld entrances.
Efor took in the new area. It was a largish, mostly open, space ignoring the elevated central block. Certainly the Pentacle Minus One not crowding it, but it was not vastly huge either. The shaft actually at the apex of a smaller perfect but compact dome shaped void that then widened via a hard edged circumference into a broader flat ceiling. Directly under the shaft and dome now, he looked at it better, in dimensions a suspiciously alter like slab of dark heavily carved stone. The stonework rather overgrown with hardy opportunistic weeds even inside the shaded hollow. Yet glimpses between that unruly growth that also colonised patches upon the wider mud caked stone floor did hint at elaborate - Fox - skill level carvings. Unfortunately, the object itself and the shapes half glimpsed of the things carved in relief soon presented as less Foxy and suggesting nothing pleasant.
‘An old Gek Blood Cult Shrine.’ Gryll stated firmly - but plainly - as if that fact no big deal, whilst playing his torch over the offending weed encased sacrificial alter block. Not, thank The Stars, active Elder Tech, just regular old inert stone - as far as I can tell. No creepy emissions here whatsoever, beyond the natural reactions it causes via association in any dark lore wise mind, or simply any vivid imagination.’ He added.
‘Filthy work.’ Nahrl barked out via a sending. ‘I hate that any of my people were involved in crafting such abominable things.’
The Fox glared at the weed choked alter stone as if its presence alone deeply offended.
‘Grimly, even quite recently Tusks often used enslaved Fox Masons to carve out their unholy Tributes and Shrines to the Dark Dreamer. Can you imagine it? Being forced to do such vile labours knowing your own people likely to be tortured, sacrificed and devoured there - body, mind and soul - at least according to the worst dark myths.’
Nahrl looking like he wanted to spit, or maybe to blast the old relic into chips and dust.
‘I didn’t credit our Father Geskhan promoted such worship - in his time - yet I guess such as this, (as some off world scholars might say), is simply evidence of the old Imperial Blood Cult.’ Jhasq noted.
Gryll shook his head ever so slightly almost below easy biological perception in that sometimes understated Korvax way. ‘I calculate not so deeply official.’
‘Why not?’ Nahrl asked.
‘Many little things don‘t fit. I fear you might be surprised too how the corruption of such darkling worship can spread, even into the most unlikely of places, among the most improbable of folk.’
‘An earlier Tusk corruption than the advent of the Dreamer.’ Nahrl ventured.
‘Perhaps.’ Gryll replied but he did not sound too convinced by that idea either. ‘You know there are even it believed Korvax that secretly worship the Darks and not just Rogue Korvax. Once deemed Lawful Convergent folk too, some at first innocently simply doing research but going a bit too deep in their studies. Some vile doctrines can infect even the cool headed - akin to a contagion - acting as if a disease of the mind. All it takes is to get too close to the same and to exhibit a little weakness of character.’
That idea made Nahrl shudder inside and feel slightly depressed too. Why did evil always seem so pervasive and strong? Corruption so rife? He glared at the stone again with its leafy semi hidden, best not described, hints of dire images of Elder Horrors from Beyond any sane Beyond. Meanwhile, Gryll gave a little start and gazed away for a moment. They could all too easily guess at the cause of that abiding twitch, it becoming too familiar to the entire party.
Surely Gryll was not hinting that…, Nahrl thought, soon finding one fresh idea offended him deeper than the Alter itself - so deep - he could barely bring himself to name it even in the seclusion of his own head.
For a time Gryll seemed distracted. Perhaps his thoughts drawn away by that distant pulse that only he felt.
A little reluctantly but unable to resist Nahrl asked. ‘So what - exactly - is so unofficial about it?’
‘For a start it lacks certain expected hints of the Grand Imperial scale also richness of finish. Plus it is clearly well out of the City proper, hidden away here.’ Gryll noted in full scholar mode.
‘So? The Cults like to lurk on the fringes. That is nothing new, or it could be a minor split.’ Efor injected.
‘In this age you are correct. After all in these more reasonable times sentient sacrifices are judged by most both crimes and moral abominations. Yet during the height of the Gek Empire it was, you might say, a State run franchise, probably even here on Geskhan’s world to some degree. Not practices occurring in hidden places during clandestine gatherings. Although the Cults certainly always retained some secret - sacred inner sanctums - that few ever witness, those even rarer sites well distinctive in their own right. Such housing impressive collections of weird Elder Tech objects and / or a lot of questionable texts.’
‘Is the shaft here ritual then, given its - obvious - orientation with the alter? A tunnel cut out to the sky and all that rests - far beyond it - to those worshippers.’ Jhasq asked.
‘Well spotted. Very possibly, good Fox, you have a fine scholarly mind. Moreover, I suspect it a flue of sorts for the unleashing of unholy smoke. Burned offerings occurring here, not just blood spilling. See here,’ Gryll pointed with his torch, ‘to me that a well contained fire pit though obviously long lost to use.’
‘As if gutting people not creepy enough they had to cook parts of them too.’ Nahrl noted.
‘Very probably whilst they were yet alive to view and smell it. It adds to the terror, the spectacle and the drama.’ Efor stated angrily. ‘I know of a few particularly nasty rituals that veer in that horrid direction. You might say an unspeakable sort of barbeque.’ The Gek possibly grotesquely half joked.
Nahrl felt a bit sick at the concept especially having seen some Dreamer Cult Shrines. Sadly the one at Bhathag’s Fort destined to be only one of many he would later help to uncover, digging for survivors after the bombarding Wrath of the Sentinels.
‘Hateful - so unnatural - so cursed wrong.’ Jhasq complained.
‘Hating the Cults, when you know them, a too easy habit.’ Efor agreed. ‘Let’s not linger here overlong. Is there an underground way onward from this place? A path that might better suit us than the Forest above?’
‘Possibly. As easily noted four equidistant exits depart from this room, each facing a cardinal point, though how far any of those go… That one in our general direction.’ Gryll noted pointing again with his torch. ‘Still that immediate directionality might mean little enough any distance beyond it. This place - given what it is - may have been concealed I will bet by cunning twists and turns beyond.’
‘Give me a moment to scout a little ahead, to see if any of these paths are worth using.’ Nahrl sent. ‘If our luck holds access might be found from here into a main Causeway or some other direct underground route straight into the City Centre. Such a substantial site should historically be well serviced by many such routes. That being why I was so keen to find us a way down. This place despite its former usage a fortuitous find Gryll. You bring us good fortune.’
‘I spawning hope so.’ Efor sent back. ‘I really don’t want to go back up there again, especially in the deeps of night, it gloomy and grim enough in daylight. Anyway, those Sentinels getting too much. We are tempting fate keeping pushing into those patrols. Sooner or later they are going to detect and surround us.’
Perhaps complaining about the gloomy Forest an ironic statement given their current location, yet to the Gek the old Shrine despite its former infamy, (in closer examination), seemed dead. The power of the site - if it ever had any beyond wishful thinking and mundane social manipulation - spent - long ages ago. Its ancient evil kindly banished and buried under healthier intruding growth. The weeds here alone, including a few glowing bulbs shining cheerily bioluminescent almost banishing the shadows of former menaces entirely. Though none of the light makers that brighter traditional Warren lightweed, the glowing flowers still seemed to have turned the place picturesque enough, verging on charming at least through a less tainted lens. You simply had to ignore its old purpose and not look too closely at the semi-hidden carvings. Though the far walls remained shadowy enough, those walls never meant to be well lit. Never dedicated to Light and Life always to Darkness and Death. Nonetheless, defiant life bearing its own light had reclaimed and in that small wonder Efor found cheering glimmers of hope - a rare - good omen indeed.
Still whilst Nahrl departed to do - what he always did - hunting a generally safe way onward - they poked around the Shrine with a certain difficult to restrain morbid curiosity. Though none of them brave enough - not even Gryll - to get up close with the alter stone itself. They all let that arcane object be, not even moving some of those screening plants aside to better view the abominations rendered so skilfully possibly by Fox hands below. Maybe if they did not have more pressing issues Gryll would have taken pains to record it all, as an interesting Blood Cult archaeological find, but compared to the grander moment of the guessed mega archaeology of the City proper beyond, this place seemed an insignificant distraction not worth much effort.
Efor nonetheless found himself scraping away some dirt with his boot at a spot where he had expected to find something more obvious. Then in the end he pulled out his Multi-tool and reducing its power output significantly used a Terrain Manipulator function to clear a layer of earth and plant growth away. It was the slow deposit of ages, soil and so on washed down perhaps from above sprouting seeds too. Not so deep that soil, just a skim really, the MT simply making a quicker, cleaner operation of removing that covering from the patch obsessing him. Rightly enough it cleared a bigger capping stone to the rest of the pattern tiled floor. Yet a block Efor suspected might be less substantive than it looked plus weighted and balanced for easy opening in some manner. Foxes with stone cunning engineers, Efor seen many of their works in action.
Soon he was pressing and prodding around but having scant success at finding a hidden unlocking mechanism. Jhasq however noting his failing work intervened, the Fox seeming to know the exact spot and quickly had the stone door swinging down upon concealed hinges. Though it stuck part way until forced by Efor. The Gek’s violent stomp causing something to give way so that the whole stone block dropped but also tilted at an angle one hinge at the very least broken. There was a little billow of dry dust when the lowest corner’s edge struck down hard accompanied by unsettling snapping crunches.
Jhasq inhaled sharply then coughed out a bark in disgust at the sight revealed, whilst waving offensive particles away given their now visible source. Gryll just nodded as if expecting nothing less, Efor registering little emotion too being yet hidden behind his almost First Spawn style helmet. Perhaps in all the excitement forgetting to take it off or yet still wary of Forest stinks.
Apparently the Gek using his grasp of Blood Cult lore and architecture to uncover the Shrine’s Ossuary a ritual depository of sacrificial bones. They all gathered around to shine their torches down upon the ancient victims to get a better look. Thankfully, there was little in the way of a bad smell as often accompanied tall tales of such finds. Here the surviving bones including many broken chips, all dry and dusty rather than wet and rancid. Among them a few recognisable skulls, some still sporting long distinctive Tusks. Kneeling down to look closer, Efor noted a few of the fragments had charring upon them but far from all. Some also seemed to have wicked tooth marks as if hungrily gnawed upon many such broken open and hollow edged as if the marrow greedily sucked from within.
Had some critters found there way in to feast on the dead? Efor doubted it but ran his torch around the circumference of the pit to be certain, it all seemed lined with unbroken well worked stone.
‘Surprisingly early Tusk cannibalism taken to new depths of - self - abusive horror.’ Jhasq stated.
Efor and Gryll let that go. They both had other thoughts, but if choosing to believe the crimes here committed by Ancient Tusks made dealing with the site easier for Jhasq neither of them saw much point in shattering her delusion. Sometimes a lie arguably better than a truth, when the truth only wounds. In this instance correcting didn’t seem to matter, the crimes - as the owners of the bones - all ancient history.
Sometimes the abused become the abuser. Though given the age of this place Efor not sure which party started any cycle, maybe it would never be known with any clarity. Besides, this specific Cult could be statistically some rarity rather than evidence of a deep trend or any broader movement. Too often singular finds causing wild fancies about an entire society or culture, whilst they might only pertain to a twisted tiny subset of the same. This was Gek Blood Cult work though - from its form - even more so than modern Dreamer Shrines. The Dreamer Shrines had many commonalities with Gek Blood Cults, as Efor better knew them, but they also had their own peculiar kinks that set them distinctively apart. As if the Dreamer Cultists only acting out a faith in part copied from older forms as mere inspirational points of reference. Perhaps the Dreamer once robbing occult lore from Shadow Library files then warping those ideas to his own equally grim cultural desires and purposes.
This site to Efor purer worship of a Dark or Darks, well if you can ever dare to call such actions pure.
‘Come away from it Jhasq.’ Gryll sent as he moved back. ‘Some matters - too deeply studied - can only disturb a soul’s grip upon their better self. You need not go there, recording such evil is not your business. You are a healer, not an Archivist of Cults of the Outer Darkness.’
Jhasq considered that and nodded backing away as Gryll suggested to join him at the far end of the room against one wall.
‘So many.’ She whispered aloud.
‘Such places can be active for a long time thus accumulating a horde of victims even if the killing rituals are rare enough and say calendar based.’ Gryll stated.
‘I’ll never understand these insane arcane wastes of life.’ She confessed
‘Which is a good thing.’ Efor sent joining them. ‘It is a pity the stone broke. Yet I have filled the mass grave in.’ He added holstering his multi-tool after clicking it off the create function. It was amazing what nanotech could do. Some tool functions even making mass out of seeming thin air, although actually it was always about complex processes of elemental compression, decompression, transport and conversion.
After the Geks comment none of them spoke for a time. Not even after Gryll gave another tiny start and habitually turned searching for his ghostly signal. What was it about it? The Rogue mused. Somehow it felt almost familiar, akin to some data deleted but whose void left a distinctive hole in an internal memory space. Why did he feel that pulse fitted as if a key into a gap within his digital mind and soul. The more he thought about it the more it bothered him deeply, again it felt oddly personal and somehow no one else’s business not even his friends. He did not really want to discuss that particular aspect of the experience with anyone else, even though earlier when he had spoken of the pulse in general that had made him feel a little better.
Gryll knew he now felt less isolated in his escalating plight. It was no joke to any Korvax though to feel yourself malfunctioning even due to an external influence. What if the systems of his Casing failed altogether? He would be lost into the keeping of the Atlas and then the Convergence at least such his supposition of belief.
With Nahrl likely gone awhile, they settled in to wait. In truth, they were all a little tired, well maybe not Gryll - not physically anyway - though maybe emotionally he was worn down enough by that periodic pulse through his systems. Soon the Rogue standing with his back to one wall, whilst the others sat sprawled on the floor nearby all far away from the alter. Efor considering eating something but realised he had no present appetite. The Gek did happily take his helmet off though eventually stowing it away in his backpack. First he sniffed at the air hesitantly though, it proving fine only a little musty with but a hint of the malignant jungle scent down here. In fact, the more local weeds predominantly smelling fresh to him - clean - natural - normal. Again, Efor thought of that simple joyous life intruding into this space as a benison. He felt a little bad about clearing some of it away when harvesting the ground to expose the cap stone of the Ossuary. Yet he let it go, done being done and no open pit in evidence had surprised him. Besides, he filled the grave in with untainted freshly generated earth and that might soon enough be re-colonised by seeds and spores. There being some innocent enough fungi down here too. At least one type of which scented edible raw. Yet he was not of a mind to gather either opting to let it be.
They waited in a companionable enough silence, each lost in their own contemplations. None wanting to burden the others with some of their occasionally darker chains of thought. Although overall Efor brightened a little, with the Ossuary buried and if you ignored the alter this place as good a rest stop as they might hope for. No horrid vines down here. Ideally no carnivorous plants at all - at least he hoped so.
When Nahrl appeared he just looked them over and gestured for them to follow. They complied falling into the same single file order of march as before. The immediate way proved as serpentine and tricky as Gryll had hinted. The Rogue also knew his Blood Cults and was perhaps growing well familiar with Fox Warrens as well. Without doubt to casual intruders coming the other way there were ways that would have been easily missed and slants that would naturally deflect. Yet such not designed to hide from the opposite direction. Still there were several side ways Nahrl ignored. Efor wondering if he had explored any of those paths during his initial scouting or if Fox signs, invisible to the Gek, had guided him invariable down the main direction he wanted to go.
At times Nahrl's ability to navigate underworld spaces seeming to verge on the uncanny. Yet Efor positive it was just deep cultural awareness, experience and mundane training. Also now having already scouted this way - it was all mapped in his head - so he moved with even greater surety. For a while no stalking involved the party making good progress at a steady verging on vigorous walking pace. Though all things must come to an end, thus as Nahrl reached the confines of the area he had already scouted he slowed and grew more cautious again. Occasionally having his colleagues wait whilst he checked out a questionable junction or passage. At one point even delineating the confines of an ancient pit trap. Some age old Warren defence against ignorant intruders. Nahrl claiming it a later edition than the working of the passageway itself, though he was positive the whole area long since abandoned to active occupation.
They did find some small signs of life long departed. Some stone urns, a bowl some flint arrowheads and other less definable things that Efor did not recognise but where clearly worked items perhaps once part of something larger rotted away. For example a spill of some stone discs too big to be practical coinage. There was even some lightweed in places overgrowing from its once well sited tracks in the walls. At times due to wild proliferation almost too bright to easily gaze upon. Rather strange to be dazzled by light in deep tunnels.
Disappointingly though the ways, some natural looking others very much Fox architecture, still rather meandering. Occasionally an old route walled off some possibly deliberately, others looking more akin to effects of ancient earth movements. Nahrl seemed intent, whenever possible, upon leading them ever downward. Did all the main Causeways rest at great depths? Before now that a possible fact Efor had not really considered, but now going on previous experience it might prove true. Even Bhargle, thinking back, lay deep enough.

The first (preseason) DFS content is available tomorrow on Draftkings! It's time to get back into the swing of things.
Introduction
Many people commented or PMed me last season saying that my posts helped them win more money, more frequently. I know I personally missed out on some big paydays by ignoring my own advice. (Sigh.) I’ve been playing DFS hockey since 2014 and have become gradually more invested in it over the past few seasons. I started playing $1 single entry tournaments and I’ve been hooked since my first entry placed 47/3448. You’ll generally find me in single entry tournaments on Draftkings and whichever site has the better tournament payout on the larger Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday slates.
I have the same username on Draftkings, Fanduel and Rotogrinders if you’re looking for me elsewhere.
Disclaimer
I would recommend that you only play DFS as a form of entertainment. Hockey is a volatile sport where anything can happen any given night: the underdog could win, your starting goaltender could be injured, etc. While under no circumstances should you hold me liable should you lose, please take me into consideration if you do happen to come upon a big payday as a result of my advice ;)
I’d advise restraint during the preseason and month of October while lines and systems are settling and the sample size is small. The whole point of using data to build your lineups is to reduce randomness, so your bankroll should be saved for when the league is more predictable. However, if you’re a degenerate like me, you likely have enough data about your personal habits to know that is unlikely.
Slates
The NHL schedule dictates larger slates on Tuesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays, with fewer games on days between. Larger slates tend to come with higher prize pools funded by more entries. Since a larger slate means more players are on the ice, that generally decreases specific player ownership. Though that increases your chance of your players having lower ownership if they go off, it also makes it more difficult to pick players that score more than the rest of the field, since there’s a higher probability more goals are scored. (And that’s what makes it fun!)
While there are also all day, afternoon, evening and late night slates, as well as Showdown and whatever else have been introduced lately, the payout for these contests tends to be less overall for the same entry fees, while the difficulty of winning them is comparable, so I tend to avoid them with few exceptions.
Contest Type
Whether you’re playing cash games (50/50, multipliers, head-to-head), satellites, or GPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool) tournaments will greatly affect your strategy. In GPP’s you’re looking for highest upside to get the most overall points possible to win the tournament. In cash, you’re looking for the highest floor to ensure you’re above the fold. In general, play cash games for security and GPP’s for the thrill.
I’m sure there are a lot of pros that play cash games regularly because you can easily double your wager any given night, which at minimum helps pad your bankroll to cover any GPP losses. I personally don’t like the upside when weighing risk/reward and therefore prefer to play GPP’s almost exclusively. However, cash strategies can also translate to smaller tournaments because you don’t need as much variance to set yourself apart from other lineups.
Single-Entry vs Multi-Entry
Daily fantasy hockey is always pitching itself as a game of skill while trying to distance itself from gambling for legal reasons. I contend that single entry tournaments are the truest test of skill here because each entry holds the same weight. These are my preferred contests by far, though there are rarely more than two any given night with a payout worth the ticket price.
While you technically have a better chance of placing first by maxing your entries in GPP’s every night, it’s impractical for most players, especially the novice. You can see in the Draftkings Results Database that even seasoned veterans rarely employ this strategy as well. For what it’s worth, some of my biggest paydays have also been ones where I made the fewest amount of entries. Your mileage may vary.
Rake
Rake is simply the house cut taken by whichever site you’re gambling on. Along with entry fees it has increased in recent years and stabilized around 9-13% depending on the contest. If all things are considered equal, target contests with a lower rake, as more prizes are being paid out to the contestants. That also means GPP’s and satellites that are not filling up before the deadline can offer you a slight advantage.
Bankroll Management
You should care about how much money you’re gambling because no one else is going to. Bankroll management doesn’t factor much into my decision making simply due to the scale I operate at, so I’ll only offer this advice: winnings are not winnings until you withdraw them, and only if you haven’t deposited more than that originally. It boggles my mind when people praise themselves for winning a grand after dumping two the month before. Set an amount you’re comfortable losing and don’t deposit more than that when it’s gone. There are free bankroll trackers available online if you want an overview of how you’re doing, such as Daily Fantasy Nerd, as well as restrictions on each site if needed.
Point Systems
This whole post was based around the 2018-19 point system for both Fanduel and Draftkings. However, it was Recently Announced that adjustments would be made to the Draftkings point system this coming season. Here’s what you need to know:
Prior to this year, there used to be relative parity between the Fanduel and Draftkings scoring systems. Aside a few discrepancies, like Fanduel awarding minor powerplay point bonuses, Draftkings accounting for goaltender points and hat trick bonuses, and a slight variation between block and shot values, Fanduel scores were basically 4x Draftking ones and the only significant differences were salary discrepancies and lineup construction.
No longer. Not only have the Draftkings points been bumped up overall but their relative values have changed. A goaltender win is now worth less relative to a goal. While it used to take 15 saves to make up a goal, it will now take about 12. There will also be two points awarded for overtime losses.
There are other minor changes to the basic scoring system, like assists and shots on goal are worth slightly less relative to a goal, but the real change will be in the new bonus system. Here you will see an additional three points awarded for hat tricks, 35+ saves, 5+ shots, 3+ blocks and 3+ point games. That 3 point modifier also stacks with the hat trick bonus, which is, frankly, ridiculous. This will significantly change the worth of playmakers, with two assists (10 points) now being worth less than a player with five shots on goal (10.5 points) without hitting twine.
Draftkings claims this makes the game “more exciting” but right now it just seems like it’ll be more random. I fail to see how anyone that regularly plays DFS with any volume benefits from this change, outside of possibly drawing in more inexperienced entries and increasing the overall player and prize pool. The NHL players gaining these bonuses are, for the most part, already the top performers in those categories. Additional incentives are hardly necessary to have Burns or Ovechkin any given night. For others, certain punt plays could see a significant boost, though it makes little sense to me why two blocked shots would be worth 2.6 points but a third bumps that up to 6.9.
Regardless, I still see linestacking being advantageous with these changes.
Linestacking
Outside of choosing a winning goaltender, using players on the same line is the most basic DFS advice you can give a beginner. Since there are so few goals scored in a hockey game and most of those goals correlate with an assist, you typically want to pick players with good linemates. The odds of stacking two corresponding lines and getting multi-point games that win you money is far greater than selecting six players who have standout individual performances on any given night.
Depending on whether you play on Fanduel or Draftkings will determine what kind of strategies are available to you, as there are tighter salary constraints on Draftkings but looser restrictions. For example, on Fanduel you’re capped at 4 players from each team. On Draftkings, you only need 3 different teams represented, so you can technically play the entire top six from one team instead. Despite that, you cannot do the 4-4-1 stack available on Fanduel, where you pick two lines with their corresponding defensemen and a goaltender. Instead, you have to opt for a 4-3-1 stack, either using the utility position for a punt play (typically not ideal) or alternating one of the defensemen from a different team (preferable).
I don’t like to break up line stacks because I’ve been playing long enough to see it come back to haunt me, but there’s always an argument for dropping an underperforming third wheel or due to salary constraints.
Powerplay Correlation
Roughly 20% of NHL goals are scored with the man advantage. Though not strictly necessary, players who have top powerplay minutes are more likely to score goals. If an entire line has full powerplay correlation, even better. There are few teams worth targeting for a powerplay stack where the players are not also linemates. However, last season the Lightning, Panthers, Sharks, Pens, Flames, Leafs and Caps all had great powerplay success with players combined from two or more lines. This can make a decent contrarian play against a weak penalty kill team or simply to deviate from the standard chalk on a smaller slate.
Percentage of Ownership
Generally speaking, whichever team(s) has the highest Vegas odds to win, and especially a high oveunder, will also be the favored teams, or chalk, for DFS. Since only 20% of GPP entries will profit and the chalk lines are likely to garner 20%+ ownership, if that line goes off it could break the slate (you’ll need that line to win).
Just because a team is a favorite to win does not mean they’re your safest option. Primarily because there are no safe options, it’s also crucial to maximize your success by differentiating your lineups from others. Use Vegas odds and “expert” predictions as a guideline for what you think other people will be targeting, and keep this in mind when building your own lineups. Looking for the lines that could produce but be underlooked (and therefore under-owned) is necessary for a big payday.
The larger the slate, the more likely you can profit from chalk. Likewise, the smaller the slate, the higher upside for contrarian options. On a 12 game slate there are likely to be several favorites, decreasing the overall ownership percentage of any given line. On a three or four game slate, more people are likely to gravitate to one or two lines. Whether you can actually afford to stack these lines together is another matter entirely. Sometimes the chalk lines are so prohibitively expensive that you have to make great sacrifices elsewhere in your lineup.
Salary Constraints
I don’t fully understand how either Fanduel and Draftkings come up with their player salaries because they often feel arbitrary. Kase was priced at floor on Fanduel for weeks, despite putting up solid production on the first line for the Ducks. There were thousands of dollars difference in Chabot’s salary when he was on a tear as well. Some players, like Shattenkirk, appeared to have inflated salaries solely due to name recognition. Occasionally there are straight up errors, like Keith Yandle was priced at floor by mistake for almost a week on Draftkings last January. Suffice to say that it’s worth analyzing the value of each player on a line when stacking, as well as exploring individual salary trends, as players are often propped up by things that don’t translate to DFS production.
It’s rare that you’ll pick two lines that fit so comfortably you can afford top defensemen and a goaltender as well. If you have the salary left over to flesh out your lineup with Burns, Letang and Vasilevskiy, it’s hard to make an argument not to. More likely you’re going to be looking for pivots, a line that has a value player that brings down the total cost, or ultimately sacrificing somewhere in your lineup.
A solid pivot for me was likely an outlier getting top powerplay time (ex. Pirri), an individual performer on a depth line (Ex. Donato; Perreault), an unrecognized rookie (ex. Svechnikov, Chabot), someone stepping in for an injury in a lineup, or a cheap defenseman with offensive upside (ex. Ekholm).
It’s also not uncommon for a star to have less talented linemates. Sometimes that artificially inflates the cost of those linemates, but sometimes it makes the line a decent budget option. You’ll likely find these players alongside McDavid, Matthews, Crosby or Stamkos, for example, when their lines are not loaded with their corresponding Kucherovs or Draisaitls.
Some lines are so prohibitively expensive they’re virtually unstackable at all, though these lines are also typically matchup proof. Because of the sacrifice required, these lines are often worth targeting on a larger slate or against tougher opposition where they’ll fetch lower ownership but still have the potential for a hat trick or more. Refer to COL1, BOS1, TBL2, etc.
Contrarian Play
Contrarian here simply means rejecting the consensus favorite, but it’s often confused with simply picking a line from a bad team to go against the grain. Note there’s rarely a good argument to pick a contrarian goaltender, outside of high upside for their salary. Keep in mind that Vegas odds, really even the best teams in the NHL, are roughly 60-65% likely to accurate project as a winner, and that winning alone is not always enough to make a goaltender valuable because they might not see a lot of shots.
So when should you play contrarian? One of my favorite contrarian options on Fanduel specifically is when a line’s players have the “wrong” position. This happens when a player was previously playing out of position, and Fanduel is notorious for being slow to respond to these changes. Since it’s more difficult to stack a CCW or WWW line, these picks are naturally contrarian because they’re harder to fit into a lineup.
Another option might be targeting secondary scoring on depth lines. Not only is this an option for affordability that’s easier to stack, but it’s a decent pivot off the chalk for a team that’s a favorite to win. It’s worth noting that a team playing on home ice has the advantage of last change and therefore can choose their deployment. If you’re targeting against a team with a solid shutdown line on home ice, a secondary scoring line might end up getting better deployment and production. Likewise, if you know a line will be forced to play a shutdown role, you might want to consider alternatives. This is called line matching and may differ on a nightly basis.
One option that’s often overlooked is a game stack. That is, picking one line from either teams in one game. When two teams are porous defensively or have a historic rivalry, chances are if a goal is scored early in the first period the ice could rapidly open up and the game will become a shooting gallery.
Finally, though this option is restricted only to Draftkings, you can stack two lines from the same team with each other. This could be the entire top six or a full five man powerplay stack. I would reserve this option only for high powered offenses against the weakest of opposition though.
Defensemen
I often consider defensemen an extension of linestacking, but in reality that’s not always feasible. Though there are technically points awarded for blocked shots, even the top shot blockers aren’t very DFS relevant on shot blocking alone, unless they are positioned against a high shot volume team and come at a reasonable price tag. It is worth considering a high floor from reliable shooters and/or blockers when looking for value if you’re stacking two expensive lines, especially in cash games. While it’s not uncommon to see rosters where people have two depth defenders squeezed into their lineup due to salary constraints, know that you’ll typically need at least another goal from your forwards to compensate for the backend unless they happen to get a lucky bounce.
There are only around forty defensemen capable of regularly generating at a half point per game every season. With so few of these players available any given night, their salaries are typically higher than a forward with a similar point pace. The most prolific point producers are often unattainable for this reason. If an inexpensive defenseman finds his way onto the first powerplay unit, you can guarantee he will see high ownership. It’s almost always recommended to upgrade your defensemen if your salary allows.
Goaltenders
More important than any other statistic is whether or not your goalie is starting, so make sure to confirm that before puck drop. Daily Faceoff is the defacto place to verify the starting goaltender for each team. It’s not infallible, but it’s the best resource available without refreshing Twitter constantly for updates.
While it’s rare this will haunt you, it’s important to note that the win is only attributed to the goalie that’s on the ice when the deciding goal is scored, and that’s not necessarily who’s in the net at the end of the game. This is especially pertinent if you’re considering playing preseason games, where there’s often split duty between two prospects.
Even the worst goaltender is going to take up a sizeable chunk of your salary cap. However, unless they’re pulled from the game, even a losing goalie at least generally has some positive impact on your overall score. On the flipside, a winning goaltender can easily be your MVP every night. That’s a lot of pressure on picking the right player in this position, and therefore it’s often the hardest.
Without consideration for quality of opponent, even the best goaltender on the first seeded team has generally won less than 70% of their games that season. Picking a winning team is already a gamble, let alone the challenge of picking a winner that also faces a lot of shots without giving up goals. Because of this, I don’t really have a strong inclination to any particular strategy here. Some nights I’ll single out a small handful of goalies I think will perform well and either correlate them with my stacks or disperse them based on their salaries. If I’m only targeting a few lines that night, maybe I’ll run the same stacks with several goaltenders and hope to see them all dispersed in the top fifty. Other times I’ll ride the same goaltender for every lineup in a boom or bust scenario. In any case, I would seriously caution against being contrarian here without knowing there’s high upside (the goaltender is cheapest on the slate and at least has a chance of winning, say).
Recent/Historical Performance
I’m not going to lie, I use DailyFantasyNerd to compare shooting and scoring trends amongst players, and I’m always dialled in to the hot hands as much as anyone. However, I feel like people might put too much weight on recent performance and too little on historical data and sustainability.
There’s no question that sometimes players just go on hot or cold streaks, and betting on a player who’s in a slump to miraculously break it that night is equal parts realistic and gambler’s fallacy, as much as banking on the hot hand continuing his run would be. If you’re willing to do further digging, it’s worth taking into account whether a player is seeing a change in deployment or ice time. Consider whether they’re shooting more or less and what percentage of those shots are converting. Also note the quality of competition in the previous games. If you’re not doing any additional research whatsoever, just know these stats are usually shown as an average over the last five games and can be heavily skewed by one good or bad game, or even an injury.
If I only have time for minimal research any given night, without fail I am checking ShrpSports and CBC Sports for the team matchup history. Providing other factors align, I will often trust historical data and narrative games over a lot of other metrics. Now, I’m often criticised for putting weight on either of these things whatsoever, but I’ll still argue that it’s foolish to ignore it.
Obviously rosters change from season to season, and sometimes very dramatically. You should definitely take offseason changes into account. However, there are some teams or specific players that consistently (and often unexpectedly) have another team’s number, and rivalries are sure to bring out the best of both teams despite what fancy stats and standings indicate. Because of this, I tend to look at the outcome of the previous two season’s play and include any games played this season, with a greater weight put on teams that matchup more frequently. Especially if there is a team that shouldn’t be victorious that’s been on a relatively consistent win streak versus their opponent, I’m making a note of the upside from their upset potential, both to avoid picking the opposing goaltender and to consider linestacks that might otherwise be overlooked. I generally ignore playoff performances though because the stakes are higher and roles tend to be different.
It also might seem silly to place any weight on things like personal milestones, birthdays or playing against your former team, but hockey players are human, and more often than not people step up to prove something to themselves or others, or help their teammates achieve personal goals.
Advanced Stats
I’ll consider advanced stats for our purposes as anything that isn’t already tracked for DFS points that might actually affect them. So, standard stats would be shots, goals, assists and blocks, and advanced stats would be metrics that affect that. Not all good hockey players are fantasy relevant, and therefore many advanced stats aren’t a good predictor of DFS production. I will say that advanced stats strongly suggested that Tampa Bay were not nearly as good as their record suggested headed into the playoffs. Either way, it’s worth understanding these terms as they’re becoming part of the narrative, and while player and puck tracking will soon be the norm, you can garner a slight edge over the competition with a bit of manual work if you’re so inclined. In any case, none of these stats should be considered in a vacuum, and hockey isn’t a science in that you’ll accurately predict an outcome via advanced stats alone, so don’t go crazy looking for a pattern that probably isn’t there.
You can find all these stats (and much more) listed below at Corsica Hockey and Natural Stat Trick.
Shooting Percentage
Shooting percentage is predictive of whether on a player’s ice performance is sustainable. It’s most useful as a comparison to league and individual averages weighed against current performance to determine whether it’s an outlier. Simply, whether a player is slumping or over-performing.
Scoring Chances
These are shots taken where goals are likely to be scored, weighed based on where on the ice they’re taken from. It’s fallible, but it’s one of the strongest predictors currently available. If a player has a high shooting percentage but is also taking high danger shots, it stands to reason why they’re converting into goals. It’s worth noting when a line is generating high danger scoring opportunities without producing, as they’ll likely fly under the radar in the meantime.
Expected Goals FoAgainst (xGF/xGA)
Expected goals is a measurement of unblocked shots that register on net in the offensive zone. xGF/xGA doesn’t have a strong correlation with actual goals scored, which seems easily explained because it doesn’t take into account individual talent or scoring probability. While there’s a chance any puck thrown toward the net could lead to a goal, without taking into account the shot quality or where it’s generated from, I don’t place much weight on this personally.
Expected Save Percentage (xSv%)
This stat takes into account shot quality (though not shooter quality) and quantity and ranks the goaltender against the league average performance. Again, this isn’t necessarily a fair indicator of how well the goaltender performed. It is worth considering for how well the team’s defense has played in front of him though, so it can be used in conjunction with other stats when picking a goalie for the win and save upside.
Corsi and Fenwick
Corsi is likely the most recognizable name in advanced stats. This was devised to account for goaltender workload and adjusts for every time they have to be in position to make a save, so it takes into account shot attempts that are blocked or go wide of the net. It’s sister stat, Fenwick, is identical, aside excluding blocked shots. >50% Corsi/Fenwick indicates more shots on net than against. Neither take into account shot quality. Therefore, rather than using positive metrics to determine whether a team will score, I consider this a determining factor for diminishing the opposition from scoring, as they’ll possess the puck less often. This is especially worth considering for linematching.
Note that Corsi/Fenwick will be influenced by zone starts. A player that gets more faceoffs in the offensive zone is more likely to put pucks on net than they are to have shots against theirs, and vice versa. A player that has negative percentage and >50% offensive zone starts represents poor ice performance.
PDO/SPSV%
This statistic is nothing more than shooting percentage added to the save percentage. Since this will always total 100% league-wide, variance higher than 100 supposedly indicates luck, or that a team is not as good as they seem, and anything lower indicates they may be better than they appear. Though this stat supposedly measures luck it can also indicate a significant skill gap (Kucherov and Matthews are dominant in this category). A line generating many high danger scoring chances without conversion should have a low PDO that regresses to the mean.
There are more advanced stats available than these, as well as derivatives of each, though I think this is enough of an overview for daily fantasy purposes. If there’s something you’ve found to be useful though, feel free to drop it in the comments.
Lineup Construction
Now that you have narrowed down your chosen lines based on which teams you want to target and have a handful of goaltenders and defensemen/utility players selected, you’re ready to construct your lineups.
This will likely be a very individual process based on system comfortability and how many entries you’re submitting. The default will be simply to load the corresponding app or website and do everything entirely on your device or browser, if not supplementing with pen and paper. Perfectly acceptable. However, this would be both cumbersome and time consuming for MME, so there’s also a bulk upload option available with .csv spreadsheets. This might be the approach you take if you’re using an optimizer too.
Optimizers
Free optimizers are basically designed to squeeze out every dollar per average point production or projection, which is very much not what I prefer to build my lineups on. Though there are better options if you’re willing to shell out some money, I don’t play enough volume to warrant a subscription and prefer a more hands-on approach anyway. I would highly recommend checking out Linestar though. I am not affiliated with them in any way, but they seem under-recognized in the market and are easily the best optimizer available for hockey in my opinion, utilizing a lot of the criteria I’ve mentioned here, including historical data, stacking and advanced stats, etc. which many other optimizers omit. There’s also an option for a brief trial based on ad views.
Line Stacker
I personally use a custom line stacker that I hobbled together with spreadsheets and the downloadable .csv files from Draftkings and Fanduel. You can access it here along with the basic instructions for how it works. Someone always comes along and messes it up somehow, so I would recommend downloading it to your desktop and using Excel to play around with it.
Late Night Swaps
Rosters lock when the first game of the night is slated to begin. If there are games on your slate starting later than that, keep in mind that changes can and do happen. Check for last minute line changes or which goaltender takes the ice even if things seemed certain at the morning skate. The worst thing that can happen is watching your first place entry plummet because it was a late reveal that someone has the flu and isn’t on the bench.
Additional Resources
Breadispain’s FREE Fanduel and Draftkings Line Stacker v1.1: My own hobbled together line-stacking tool for up to 24 lines. I don't know of a similar tool available right now and I find it handier than an optimizer. There’s also a rudimentary salary comparison tool between Draftkings and Fanduel implemented if that interests you.
ShrpSports: See how well teams have performed against each other historically.
CBC Sports: maybe it’s because I’m Canadian, but I think the CBC does the best overview of the slate with easy access to the latest game data.
Daily Faceoff: Your best source for lineups, injury news and starting goaltender information.
Daily Fantasy Nerd: I use this daily for an overview of who’s hot/cold in the last five games for shots on goal, ice time and points, though it’s worth making a deeper dive to see whether those points came from a single outlier game.
Corsica Hockey and Natural Stat Trick: I use both of these sites for advanced stats, and occasionally the latter for line-matching data and post-game analysis.
Linestar: Linestar comes closest to developing a DFS tool that actually correlates with how I build my lineups. They offer everything from analysis on value plays, recent performance in varying metrics, historical data vs opponent, change in salary, salary disparity between platforms, and much more.
Results DB: see the best and optimal lineups from previous nights and who came out ahead.
Awesemo, Rotogrinders and DFS Army: Since these are the more popular sites, I tend to review their postings and livestreams when time permits on the big slates for anything I might’ve overlooked and to get a better idea of where other people might be targeting. I personally place more weight on boggslite and Homercles, for whatever that’s worth to you.
Summary
It’s my opinion that Vegas odds and expert predictions should be used as a guide for chalk more than what you should target. It won’t take research to determine that good players with ideal linemates against weak opponents are more likely to score. Don’t ignore narrative games and historical performances. Advanced stats can be both helpful and distracting. Ideally you’ll always stack two or more players who are correlated on the powerplay with one or both of your defensemen, on teams with high GF/G and/or PP%, against teams with low CF% and/or a goaltender with high GAA, ideally with a low PK%. Consider whether these players have been under or overperforming and have any chemistry together. Players who shoot more often increase their point floor and probability to score. It’s advantageous to be on home ice for linematching but it’s rarely a dealbreaker. Round this out with a goaltender with a high expected SA/G and low GAA that fits within your salary constraints. Alternatively, build from the goaltender out or just hamfist whomever works.
And that’s always easier said than done.
Best of luck.

i've had these reviews sitting around for the past week or so. i figured instead of flooding the Plounge with them by posting each one seperately, i should just make one big review post. here are some movies that i missed out on seeing last year. either because they didn't play near me, or i just didn't have enough time to see them.
first up was American Animals
the only thing i knew about this going in was that it was distributed by the MoviePass company. that seemed to be the only thing they used to draw audiences in, i guess.
in Kentucky, 2003, Spencer Reinhard is an art student who feels his life has no meaning, that he needs something exciting, even if tragic, to happen in his life to inspire greater artistry. Warren Lipka is a rebellious student on an athletic scholarship, though he does not care much for sports and is only pursuing the education to please his family.
after Spencer is given a tour of Transylvania University library's rare book collection, the two friends begin to plan to steal an extremely valuable edition of John James Audubon's 'The Birds of America' and other rare books. Warren travels to Amsterdam to meet some black market buyers who express interest in buying the books. upon returning to the US, he informs Spencer that they could make millions of dollars, much to their excitement.
what follows is their process and determination to do this job. it's told using two techniques. one of them being representation of reality, the other being interviews with the real guys involved in the heist. most movies would just have footage or interviews with them at the very end, but this one switches it up a bit. there's a scene early on where the two styles mesh and one of the real guys is seen talking to the actor who's portraying them. not in an interview way, necessarily. it's more of a visual gag when it happens.
the tone is largely comedic during the first two acts, with a couple moments of sincerity here and there. the two main guys feel like a crime duo to begin with. Spencer is the straight man, and Warren is the energetic sleazeball. sometimes, the real individuals misremember a part of the story, or have a different view of it, and so they decide to have it shown in two different ways as a result. that was a very clever way of doing things.
the more it gets down to the actual heist, the more dramatic and dark it gets. they start to doubt themselves, then they get back up and make another attempt. and eventually, they become disgusted with their actions. there's an entire section that deals with the effect this situation has on their families. that, and their own mental health. the acting was absolutely stunning. the portrayals feel like more than just performances. these guys were amazing at their range from calmness, to agitation, to downright insanity. the writing also deserves credit for investing us beginning to end, especially during the third act. you feel this jolt of anticipation that never goes away. it's just a stream of intense moments building up, one after another.
overall, i thought it was fantastic. easily one of the best heist movies to come in a long time. if you're interested, i highly recommend it.

next up was Blindspotting
Collin (Daveed Diggs) must make it through his final three days of probation for a chance at a new beginning. he and his troublemaking best friend, Miles (Rafael Casal), work as movers, and when Collin witnesses a police shooting, the two men's friendship is tested as they grapple with identity and their changed realities in the rapidly-gentrifying neighborhood they grew up in.
there must be fewer experiences more wounding to the heart than witnessing an act of police brutality. it all comes so fast and sudden, leaving not only the onlooker, but the policeman himself in utter disbelief. it causes a certain debate amongst citizens, trying to see if the victim deserved it, or if the officer shot them because he simply had to. no matter what case happens in the media, there will always be two sides. the term "racist" can be thrown around so casually in each case, to the point where it's just the go-to assumption.
this movie is quick at bringing these subjects to light. it's almost explosive in the way the narrative is able to examine such troubles between race and the justice system. not only that, but there are stark choices in the way it develops these characters. the lead, Collin, attempts to break free from his past lifestyle to provide a better way of living for himself. being a convicted felon has scared him into giving up guns, drugs, and unwarrented fights with random people in the streets. he also makes a repeated attempt to revive the relationship he once had with his ex, Val. they could start a normal, joke-filled conversation at work, yet it'll still lead to a subtle feel of contempt from her, as she reminds him of his previous actions.
there's a scene that involves Collin going over to visit Val so he can help her study. she makes it clear that he's over there just for studying, and nothing more. once they're done, she starts packing up to leave and Collin takes a moment to embrace her in his arms. for a beat, there's no restraint from her, almost as if it's a sensation or feeling that the both of them missed. another moment later on has the two of them speaking over the phone. with a split-screen technique to show both sides, Collin tries to have a casual conversation about her studying, but can't. as Val speaks, we see him with his eyes watering and his lips quivering. finally, he can't contain himself anymore and asks: "when you see me now, do you always see the fight first?" it's a bleak and abrasive aspect that happens often in a gang-oriented town such as the one in the film. even if someone with a troubled past makes the decision to change, it doesn't solve or alter the perceptions that people have of them.
that also goes for his friend, Miles, who puts on this constant charade of being a jive-speaking tough guy. he stirs up some conflict when he buys a gun and keeps it in his home without telling his girlfriend. after getting kicked out for a night, he comes back to discuss it. they start with an argument, but wind down once the topic of their son is brought up. there's a sudden change in Miles' voice. for once, we see the real version of himself rather than the act he puts on. it's quite staggering.
the execution is wonderful at combining this gritty drama along with setups that have a touch of humor to them. it's also done with whimsical choices in the editing that showcase the suburban setting around us. the one and only complaint that i have is a sequence that occurs near the end. without giving too much away, it's something that happens only by pure convenience. and it's written in a way that seems preachy in a bad sense. i would have excused it if they chose a better way to execute the scene. if you were holding a gun up to someone in a threatening manner, and you were full of absolute scorn towards them, would your first instinct be freestyle rapping? i doubt it.
all in all, the movie has maturity and emotional depth. aside from the scene i just mentioned, it places realism ahead of easy payoffs and finds a way to get the audience deeply involved. if you're interested, give it a watch.

the third one was Roma
it's times like this where i become disappointed in the fact that Netflix is strictly a streaming service. some of their movies, like "Bird Box", are ones that are destined to be watched at home. but, the more ambitious and personal ones like "Roma" deserve to be seen in theaters. and no, limited engagement runs aren't enough. this isn't the type of useless dravel that you can have on as you do other things in your house, it's an experience that you become completely immersed and engaged in.
Cleo (Yalitza Aparicio) is a housekeeper working for a wealthy family. she spends her days tending to their four children, taking care of the dogs, and cleaning the house. she has a close friendship with Adela (Nancy Garcia), the other housekeeper. there is tension between Antonio (Fernando Grediaga), a doctor and the head of the household, and his wife, Sofia (Marina de Tavira). he is continually leaving for work trips, making Sofia and the kids miss him greatly. over the next year of her life, Cleo balances the many obstacles facing her in her own personal life, along with the ones cornering the family.
the story is told in a series of detailed panning shots that linger. i'm betting this will be one of those subjects for a film class in which the students examine the picture by pausing it and going frame-by-frame. the attention to detail that Alfonso Cuarón provides is marvelous. you become completely engrossed not just by the characters in front of you, but the ones that fill the background. we see the daily routines of street vendors, protestors, shop owners, and just simple townspeople going about their everyday lives. the way it represents the early 1970s has less of a nostalgic feel, and it creates this sort of slice-of-life capsule.
it's structured to be very observant and micro. but there is a macro level, too, almost too large in scale to be seen, and the ingenuity of the film is suggesting a larger reality. the characters, mainly Cleo and the mother, Sofía, are dealt with a string of events that lead them to the brink of their tolerance. certain shots will focus primarily on Cleo's face, showing the audience that she's become boarderline depressed. yet, she never acts out. it could either be because her job forbids her from doing so, or because she simply can't express the difficult emotions that she's dealing with.
there's a heavy amount of atmosphere, but an even heavier amount of melodrama. the moral sense is incredibly hearfelt by the way we get invested in these people. despite all of these setbacks that are happening to them, they still find a way to be happy with each other, and they put that above everything else. you join their experience, feeling as if you're a member. Cuarón himself stated that this film is a tribute to the women in his life and “the elements that forged me." he creates a balance of truth and art that's almost breathtaking, because it registers to us, too. there are some moments in your lifetime that, when you think about it years later, have way more of an impact than when you first experienced it. that's really what it all comes down to: memory. by the end of the film, we know that the people involved have just completed their own journey. in the future, they might have these personal events to thank for shaping them into the person they've become.
this is a highly captivating piece of work that wins sympathy for its characters by having a reflective story. i would highly recommend it if you're interested.

next was Boy Erased
Joel Edgerton is not only a highly talented actor, but he also showcases his efforts as a filmmaker. the last movie he directed, "The Gift", was easily one of the best psychological thrillers i've seen in recent years. i expected nothing less with this movie, even if it was more of a dramatic piece.
based on the true story, it follows Jared (Lucas Hedges), the son of a Baptist pastor in a small American town, who is outed to his parents (Nicole Kidman and Russell Crowe) at age 19. Jared is faced with an ultimatum: attend a conversion therapy program, or be permanently exiled and shunned by his family, friends, and faith.
many people in the LGBTQ community come to a decisive realization in their own time, that the portion of the world that doesn’t accept them is wrong and they themselves are right. Jared appears to find himself in the thick of that realization. he doesn't want to hurt those around him, who state that God will not love him unless he defeats his homosexual urges, but that causes even more of a strain on his view of self worth. his parents register him to a conversion program run by the impassioned, self-appointed therapist Victor Sykes (Joel Edgerton).
the program creates a loss of guiding voices for all of the camp inmates, as none of them are permitted to discuss the details of the therapy with their guardians. as he works his way through the emotionally manipulative curriculum, Jared becomes less soft-edged and more confident in his lifestyle choices. the main situations that cause the shift involve Edgerton literally forcing the inmates to speak about their "sins", and putting large emphasis on that word as part of the conversion. if they make the slightest attempt to speak for themselves instead of the lord, it makes their stay even longer.
Sykes himself possesses the stereotypical vibe of one pretending what he's not, in terms of his own sexuality. he seems only opinion, not at all clinician. some of the methods he used are less likely to be God's plan, and more of his own. Jared's parents are a little more sympathetic with their son. they're disappointed with his sexual preference, yes, but they never lose their love for him. Russell Crowe is earnest and solid at playing the father, both theological and biological, and Nicole Kidman is equally as strong and compassionate as the mother. Lucas Hedges creates brilliant composed awareness as Jared. he gets that he won't change, and that will go badly for him. but, his eloquent gentleness is his distinct power and voice. for survival sake, a gay participant Gary, played by Troye Sivan, instructs Jared, "fake it till you make it."
the movie could tell its story and not necessarily be great. it could be considered a typical "gay oriented movie." but Joel Edgerton focuses so intently and with such feeling on the people involved with the story that the movie is as observant as work by Bergman. i can imagine someone weeping at this film, identifying with it, either because they know the feeling of being shunned for their sexual identity or because they've experienced events such as the one being portrayed. what it comes down to is that we are all responsible for our needs and wants, and no one else has the power to make those decisions for us. you can beat someone with the bible, and baptize them til' the cows come home, but all that will do is scare them into pretending.
this is a very well made film on all parts: direction, acting, writing, cinematography, and editing. as good as it looks, the style never overlaps the emotional baggage we're given from the storyline. it's courageous, bold, and outstanding with its execution. this is another choice that i would highly recommend if you're interested.

and now we end with The House That Jack Built
this is the new film by Lars von Trier, a director whose work mostly comes across as challenging. i enjoyed "Breaking the Waves", "Dancer in the Dark", "Antichrist", and "Melancholia". but other works of his, like "Dogville" or "Nymphomaniac", are less passionate and more disappointing. with this, he seems to be getting back into his original form and crosses it with the feel of a slasher movie, which was easy enough to have me sold.
in five audacious episodes, failed architect and arch-sociopath Jack (Matt Dillon) recounts the elaborately orchestrated murders. each, as he views them, are a a towering work of art that define his career as a serial killer. during his walk through memory lane, he is joined by a man who goes by the name of Verge (Bruno Ganz), modeled as a priest that listens to his every sin.
it would be too easy to draw comparisons between this and "American Psycho." what most people will fail to see, i think, is the difference between character structure and exposition. Patrick Batemen was first and foremost an exaggeration, someone whose excessive compulsions are crossed with a cartoonish personality. in this, Matt Dillon's character has the same ideals and arguments that you would hear coming from one of real life's serial killers. there are a few sequences where him and Verge are discussing topics such as art, icons, and the constraints or expectations of the world around us. he also has this quiet, menacing quality to him that will make anyone feel uneasy, and he plays it with such conviction to the point where it seems real. early on, we learn that he's diagnosed with OCD. while i doubt it has little to do with his murderous habits, it brings a lot of discomfort in his social interactions. one scene shows him trying to get into a woman's house by tricking her into believing he's a police officer. the way he shifts back and forth between his reasoning causes suspicion, yet his sincerity is able to trick them.
we also gain some perspective on how the act of killing has become so easy and simple to him. he doesn't even attempt to keep it secret from most people. a long, suspensful part has him working his way onto slowly killing a girlfriend of his. during the buildup, he goes on about how society has this concieved thought that men are automatically born guilty, and women are always the victim. while i can't exactly argue against that point, it doesn't redeem the act of murder. maybe that's the whole point of Matt Dillon's mindset. he perpetually makes an effort to convince people that he's doing these horrendous acts because of the affect societal standards have had on him, but that just adds to his insanity. he endures a psychopathic function that has long since stopped giving him pleasure and become purely instinctive.
Jack also has a burning passion for art, and he uses the kills as an outlet to create art. what else are you going to do with the bodies laying around? he has a way of viciously condemning people, yet tries to be delicate in any process afterwards. in my opinion, von Trier did an excellent job at writing this character. we know the only things about him that we need to, and nothing else. it's not that any events from his past shaped him into this way, it's that he was just created as a visceral murderer.
i have one complaint and one complaint only: during the third act, the movie starts to get on more of an intellectual and arthouse beat. those moments are well crafted and nicely executed as they move along. but then, all of the sudden, there's about a minute where we see a clip show of Lars von Trier's other movies. i understood the use of prolific images or stock footage up to that point, but this just seemed like a case of the director jerking himself off. it's seriously one notch below Nicolas Winding Refn calling "Only God Forgives" (his worst movie) the best film ever made. get off your fucking high horse.
but, i digress. that flaw only lasted for a mere minute. it was enough to only take me out during that moment. i was completely fine with the rest of the movie. i'm not going to say it's for everyone, though. some people might object to its violence or be alienated by the stylistic choices made, but hey, you can't win em' all. bottom line, i would recommend it only if you have the stomach for it.

Hello all! Welcome to the third in the series of fan produced game previews. Sorry this one is later in the night than normal, but I have had a busy week. But, its almost Friday and that means that SEC football is almost here! Before we get to the previews we need to look at the winner of the guess the score contest from last week. The winner is u/joblanco40 and South Carolina! Jo’s prediction was 27-21 SC which was just three points away from the actual score of 27-24. This brings the score to Tennessee 1 South Carolina 1.

Texas A&M @ Auburn 12:00 ESPN

Texas A&M perspective by u/TryhardTim of

HOWDY!

Well, that Mississippi State game left a sour taste in my mouth. Let’s hope that’s not a sign of things to come. (Also, shout out to Kirk Herbsteit, who (jinxed us on College Gameday last week)[https://twitter.com/tengland150/status/1056248973760102410])
This week, the Aggies will play their final road game of the season against the Auburn Tigers. It’s easy to call any game at this stage of the season an important game, but I want to stress how important it is for this Aggie Football team. We’re currently sitting at 5-3. One win will make us bowl eligible, but that was never really going to be a problem for this team. You see, this game is important because we need to build confidence before we hit the home stretch of the season. We *need a win this week. Let’s see how we can take care of business:
**WHAT TO WATCH FOR
*What’s an offense???? Sheesh, last week was ugly. Like, not ugly in a kind of cute way, but ugly in a I-want-to-go-throw-up- after-seeing-that way. We still have yet to score more than two offensive touchdowns in any SEC game this year (We even got to overtime in one of those games). If this team wants to get a win against the SEC equivalent of Jekyll and Hyde, they need to get their act together on the offensive side of the ball. Namely, they need to improve in the red zone, where they have an appalling 38% TD rate against SEC opponents this year. Another problem the Aggies had last week was dropped passes. Like, a lot of them. Anyone who claims that the gloves that receivers wear make catching the ball too easy needs to watch the Aggie receiving group last week. If the offense can get back to the form that we saw in the first 4 weeks of the season (Mond being accurate with the ball and making plays with his legs, actually targeting Jace Sternberger throughout the game), the Aggies will have a good chance to win this game. *Are we becoming the “get right” team of the SEC West? Nick Fitzgerald was on the verge of being benched before he broke out and had a season-saving performance against us. This week, we get to face another struggling QB who has performed well against the Aggies in the past in Jarrett Stidham. Aggie fans do not need to be reminded of the absolute beating we took last year at the hands of Stidham and now pro running back Kerryon Johnson. To prevent what happened last week, the defensive secondary, led by a (for once) non-suspended Donovan Wilson needs to do significantly better than how they performed last week, where missed tackles and giving up too much space to receivers were all too common.
**FINAL WORDS
This game is a relatively simple one to preview. If the Aggies show up and play to their full potential, they will win this game. If not, this game could get ugly like last week’s game, and it’s time to start panicking about the now possible chance that we lose to Ole Miss at home. I feel as though Jimbo Fisher will be able to get our players back in form, and we can win in a stadium where we have had success since joining the SEC. **#BTHOauburn #WarEagleTigers? #AtLeastTheLonghornsLostToo
Texas A&M 20, Auburn 14

Auburn perspective by u/patsey of

Hey Y’all!
A quick note to the AU family: Kelly Bryant visited campus! Gus is back on his recruiting horse, Bryant is obviously the “highest value free agent ever” filling the void Jalen's dad created.
On the Field:
Gus Malzahn’s system revolves around the rushing attack. Boobie Whitlow has been what passes for a breakout star but is injured and likely out. Also in that stable is a senior walk-on in Malik Miller and a pair of talented freshmen in Shaun Shivers and Asa Martin. Martin was the highest rated of them all as a prospect but has only seen 6 carries this year, his fumble in the A-State game a likely reason for this. Kam Martin the day 1 starter is almost negligible as he is simply never good for more than 4 carries per game.
All this may be a relatively moot point as the O-line has been just putrid. There is some talent there but none besides right tackle Jack Driscoll is even holding his own. This is unlikely to change this week as A&M boast the 5th ranked rush defense in the country. The question is can they get straight through our O-line to Stidham.
Malzahn and Lindsey will likely need to lean on the passing game, maybe quick passing game if they expect to defend their honor in the eyes of recruits. The problem is the O-line was inexcusably bad against the pass rush of Miss State. Driscoll was injured in that game and that hole may have been patched but this exposes Stidham’s most glaring weakness, the way he responds to pressure. When his spidey sense goes off he instantly tucks to run and does so with the grace of an old Peyton Manning.
The Culture War:
Named after a 3 hole stretch at August National, Amen Corner is the name Pat Dye gave to the last 3 games of Auburn’s schedule- at the time Florida, Georgia, and Alabama. AU Athletics has since broken up that uphill finishing stretch by adding a cupcake in between Georgia and Alabama week. That term may be applicable again if we are going to play A&M at this time every year. There is no doubt the tectonic plates of the SEC West changed when A&M entered the league, and Jimbo’s hire was an earthquake for the rest of the division. Bama have proven they are still superior, but we will see how their recruiting is affected. LSU will catch them last in what may prove to be the new battle for 2nd place in the West.
Auburn had become the third best recruiter in the West behind Saban’s Bama and Les’s LSU. With A&M in the picture we could easily find ourselves 4th, and a loss this Saturday will only fuel that shift. Mississippi State has something to say in this too as they beat A&M last week and effectively throttled Auburn in their stadium. Traditionally they are not considered a recruiting threat but we have to wait and see what Moorehead’s first class looks like. Going in to the LSU game this year AU Family had great reason to believe Auburn could capitalize on Gus being the last face Les Miles saw on the battlefield. That was not to be despite a 10 point lead in that game, and now we are seeing Coach Orgeron show up in Alabama during his bye week to recruit in our state. To read an extended look at how this affects the big picture go to PatrickBrickson.com
Auburn 22 – Texas A&M 19

South Carolina @ Ole Miss 12:00 SEC Network

South Carolina perspective by (the returning champion) u/joblanco of

South Carolina (4-3, 3-3) will be traveling to Oxford this Saturday to take on the Ole Miss Rebels (5-3, 1-3) in a cross divisional matchup that could be a good one. South Carolina was once again a terrible football team in the first half against Tennessee, continuing a trend that has just left Gamecocks fans everywhere completely stressed the fuck out. Tennessee was moving the ball down the field effectively and our defense was just being gashed by short and intermediate crossing routes. Guarantano rarely attacked the ball downfield, but he managed the team well and we were just out schemed in the first half, especially on the defensive side.
The defense wasn’t helped by the fact that South Carolina was just as worse on offense. Our running game was effective against Tennessee; we consistently set the edge and were able to get some good chunk runs down the field. It was just the passing game just would completely kill our momentum. Our passing game limited our offense to a point where Bentley received a healthy dose of booing for the second consecutive game. While Bentley did have his bad throws, that first half performance was NOT all him. Majority of the blame should go to the offensive coordinator, Bryan McClendon.
But!!! It all changed in the end of the first half. My own father, Deebo Samuel, just showed the SEC what just makes him so special as a player: one-handed grab in the endzone. He just absolutely saved Bentley too, because he definitely overthrew that pass. But it didn’t matter because Deebo is that dude and can jump to the moon. He gave our team the spark we needed to gain momentum into the 3rd Quarter, and we took advantage. Rico Dowdle (underrated football name, btw) just bullied defenders in that second half and finished the game with 140 yards rushing with a touchdown. His play, and Jake too, led our team back in another gritty, comeback win for the Cocks.
If they start slow against this Ole Miss team, then they might be going down a hole that will be too hard to get out. Ole Miss can be ELECTRIC if they get clicking. The game against Texas Tech was just a barnburner and Ole Miss looked unstoppable on offense. They’ve already scored more than 70 points twice this season. Led by the “Throwin’ Samoan” Jordan Ta’amu, this Ole Miss offense has weapons that can hurt the Gamecocks. AJ Brown is a first round pick (here’s a hot take: DK Metcalf is a better player), Scottie Philips is good, and they have a sneaky good tight end in Dawson Knox (another underrated football name). Their Oline is experienced, and Ta’amu is mobile enough to make plays with his feet.
This team is good on offense, but holy fuck they are awful on defense. They gave up 41 points to Southern Illinois. Southern Illinois. Do you know what the team name of Southern Illinois is? I bet you don’t. Don’t lie to me and tell me you do. They’re called the Salukis. The fucking Salukis. The only reason why you would name yourself after a Saluki, is probably because you’re an asshole. But that’s beside the point. Ole Miss is bad at defense. They lack depth at linebackers and the secondary (especially at secondary). Its so bad that they had to convert two running backs (who started this season as backup running backs!!!!!) into safeties. And these guys get meaningful snaps. If the Gamecocks don’t start fast against this team, then I’ve just lost hope that it’ll ever change while Bentley is at QB.
From a gambling perspective, this game is listed as a pick em’. I normally don’t like to bet on the Gamecocks, but this is looking to be like a win with some added value. I believe Will Muschamp will try to combat this prolific offense with an old school ideology: Keep them off the field. I think the Gamecocks run the football early and often against Ole Miss, and just milk the clock. Ole Miss has serious problems wrapping up, and the Gamecocks have good physical runners that can break tackles. Look for Deebo to get the ball out of the wildcat a bit more this game, and look out for sneaky big games from Ty’Son Williams and Mon Denson. I think the gamecocks play complimentary football with the running game, and make enough plays in the secondary on defense to maintain the lead against this high-powered offense. Also I'm pretty sure nobody will be at the game in Oxford since it starts at 11 am. So there's that too. Gambling tips for the game: South Carolina Pick em, UNDER 68 points.
32 South Carolina-27 Ole Miss

Ole Miss perspective by u/Rebbel228 of

This week the 4-3 (3-3) South Carolina Gamecocks visit Oxford and take on the 5-3 (1-3) Ole Miss Rebels. It’s going to be a great matchup for mediocre football provided to us by one of the worst in the East and the second worse in the West (thanks Arkansas). This is the first time these two teams have met since my junior year of high school when Ole Miss was ranked #4 and lost on a Thursday night in 2008, which personally is a game I’d like to forget.
(Editors note: the fact that these two teams haven’t played in nine years is ridiculous. We want a 9 conference game schedule!)
The Gamecocks are looking for their 5th win in hopes of becoming bowl eligible in the next 4 weeks. This is a must win for them, as Florida and Clemson are both on the docket for the month of November. South Carolina will be looking for some consistency this season after alternating wins and losses. They’ve been winning the games and they’re not supposed to and losing the games they’re not supposed to. Luckily for Ole Miss, that means this weekend looks pretty good for the Rebs.
Let’s be real. Ole Miss has been a dumpster fire this season. Granted, on paper, the Rebs don’t look that bad. They can score points. We all know that. They can’t stop the other team from scoring points though and that’s rough in today’s world high tempo offense. Ole Miss likes to score quick which doesn’t leave much time for the defense to rest. The key to this game will be the Ole Miss offense to play a good game with little to no mistakes and to for the defense to step up and make a few huge plays. Force turnovers, Jake Bentley has thrown 8 INTs this season and 1 or 2 turnovers can be very beneficial for the Rebs.
Mississippi is a sports betting state so I’ll throw a quick pick in. Pick your conscience. This game can really go either way, you’re picking the winner with this spread. This game opened Ole Miss (-1) but my local sportsbook currently (10/30) has this game as a PK. I personally am staying away from this game because I don’t like losing my money, but if I had to pick I’d take Ole Miss straight up, or whatever the point spread moves to by this weekend. From what we’ve seen of South Carolina this season, they start off slow and pick up in the second half. Ta’amu and Co. will have no problem scoring points early. This game will also most definitely go under 66.
It'll be an emotional game for both sides. Hotty Toddy, y’all.
Ole Miss 38, South Carolina 31

Georgia @ Kentucky 3:30 CBS

Georgia perspective by u/DuragofJupiter of

Following a cathartic 36-17 victory over the Florida Gators in Jacksonville, the sixth ranked Georgia Bulldogs will continue their travels as they face the ninth ranked Kentucky Wildcats in Lexington this weekend in what is certainly an SEC East title decider, as a win for either side would give them an insurmountable lead in the race to Atlanta. In order for UGA to return to Athens victorious, the offense will have to continue the (mostly) mistake-free play it demonstrated against the Gators, while the Bulldog defense will have to tackle far better than they have throughout this season to contain the Wildcats’ powerful running game, which is led by their star tailback, the bruising Benny Snell.
Offensively, UGA will need to be at their best against Kentucky, as the Wildcats boast one of the nation’s best defenses. Kentucky currently ranks third in Defensive S&P+, and they are particularly dangerous against the run, as the ‘Cats rank ninth in Rushing S&P+, while their passing defense is also exceptional, ranking 12th in Passing S&P+. Kentucky’s defense also achieves the difficult feat of combining excellence at preventing explosive plays, ranking 12th in IsoPPP, with a top-15 Havoc ranking. Finally, Kentucky’s defense excels when their backs are against the wall, as they allow only 3.09 points per scoring opportunity, good for fourth in the nation. In summary: they’re damn good, and they’re the unit that’s powered Kentucky to 7-1 and a top 10 ranking this season and Georgia will have to be at their best to even move the ball against a defense this dominant.
Fortunately, the Bulldogs have some experience with defenses as talented as UK’s as they’ve already played LSU and Florida this season. While Georgia was overawed by LSU’s speed and physicality in Baton Rouge, UGA’s work during their bye week in between the LSU debacle and the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party clearly paid off, as the offensive unit was far more consistent against the Gators than it had been against the Tigers. In particular, Jake Fromm was far more in command against Florida than he had been against LSU, as he went 17-24 for 240 yards and 3 crucial touchdowns, including a pair of excellently placed fadesto Jeremiah Holloman and a perfectly thrown crossing route to Terry Godwin. Fromm’s performance against an athletic Florida defense has almost certainly quieted the calls for Justin Fields to start, and he will need to continue his efficient play against the Wildcats’ dominant defense, particularly given some of the recent struggles of the running game.
While the running game has been a strength for the ‘Dawgs this season, their performance against Florida could have been better, as the Bulldogs stunk in short-yardage against the Gators, particularly in the red zone. This was highlighted by Florida’s goal-line stand in the third quarter, when Georgia had 7 tries to gain one yard following a Feleipe Franks fumble, and got pushed backwards. Of course, some credit is due to the Gator defense for their efforts, but the Bulldogs must be better against Kentucky in these situations in order to escape Lexington with a win. I’d look to see Elijah Holyfield get more carries as he’s a bit more physical than D’andre Swift, which could wear down the Wildcat defense in the second half.
While the Wildcats’ defense is certainly legit, their offense is a bit… shit. Kentucky ranks 109th in Offensive S&P+, and their passing game is somewhat atrocious, as presumptive starter Terry Wilson has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns this season. However, despite his inefficiencies as a passer, Wilson is a dangerous runner on the option and as a scrambler as he’s run for over 400 yards and 3 touchdowns this season, and he’s got fairly good speed, as shown on hisTD run against Florida. Luckily for Wilson and the Wildcats, star tailback Benny Snell has been able to carry the offense on his shoulders despite the struggles of the passing game. Snell has toted the ball 179 times for 935 yards, and he combines speedwith a nose for the endzone, as he’s found paydirt 9 times this year. Snell will often take direct snaps from the center in short-yardage situations, and he’s even tossed a td pass this season. While Kentucky does have a few other threats, including sophomore receiver Lynn Bowden Jr, it is clear that Snell is the foundation for all of Kentucky’s offensive success.
While it is no surprise that Kentucky will run Snell as often as possible, Georgia will still have to stop him, which will prove a tall task for Georgia’s underperforming run defense. Despite the talent level across the UGA defense, the Junkyard Dawgs have been pedestrian against the run, ranking 77th in rushing S&P+, and they’ve both struggled to inflict negative plays, ranking 77th in stuff rate, and to prevent opposing backs from getting into the second level, ranking 105th in opportunity rate allowed against the run. However, if UGA can leverage Kentucky into passing situations, the Bulldog defense should easily handle the Wildcat passing attack, and could hopefully force a few turnovers as Terry Wilson is forced to test future NFL players such as Deandre Baker, J.R. Reed, and Richard Lecounte.
While Kentucky is having their best season in more than 40 years, I’d expect their dreams of a berth in the SEC Championship to end on Saturday against Georgia. The ‘Dawgs are too complete on all levels for Kentucky’s offense to keep up, particularly given their struggles with the passing game. Kentucky’s defense will keep the game close, however, and I’d expect the first half to stay relatively low-scoring, barring a spate of turnovers on either side. Nevertheless, Georgia’s offense will eventually wear down Big Blue defensively, and the Bulldogs will leave Lexington with an SEC East title and a date in Atlanta with the winner of the Alabama-LSU game.
Georgia 27- Kentucky 13

Kentucky Perspective by u/B1ackMagix of

In a shocking turn of events, the SEC east will be decided in Lexington against Georgia and Kentucky. While I believe Kentucky’s defense is up to the challenge it’s do-or-die time for the offense. Kentucky needs to pay attention to the strong Bulldog opponents past games to hopefully find some keys to victory. Offense
We’ve got a match made for our offensive line. Georgia’s pass defense is top notch (9th in the nation) while their rush defense leaves something to be desired (clocking in at a much lower 43). Compare this to the games we’ve already played and we’re looking at teams like Texas A&M (5), Mississippi State (15), And Mizzou (28). We’ve got a large opportunity to let Snell, Rose and Wilson do what they do best as long as they don’t put a spotter on Wilson. Charge those lines and get some rushing yards. If there’s a game to let our rushing offense shine, it’s here.
Don’t be afraid of the RPO though. Wilson made some incredible passes in the past 8 minutes of the Mizzou game and I hope that confidence carries through. We’ve proved that Bowden is a weapon to be used and we should try to get him some good looks.
Defense
Georgia is going to keep us guessing. They like to balance passing with the rush and aren’t afraid to take shots down field when they feel they can. Our defense will need to play top notch to stiffen their offense. Georgia is tied right there with Kentucky as far as sacks allowed go so Allen needs to get his name out there early. Make the offense settle for short gain plays and try to keep them out of their rhythm.
Outside Influences.
The crowd is going to be a factor. We need to be loud and proud and support our team. I don’t see this being a big issue, but it should be a sellout crowd and we should have blue and white be as loud as possible. Saturday is looking cold and cloudy in Lexington, so we should prep for that.
I think this game is going to be close. If Kentucky plays the best game of the season, then we could pull out the upset but that’s a big if. I do think the game will be a lot closer than people give us credit for. Kentucky will play hard but unfortunately our offense is lacking. Our defense won’t be able to cover the slack the offense leaves behind but it will be a close game.
Georgia 28 -Kentucky 24

Missouri @ Florida 4:00 SEC Network

Missouri perspective by u/Marc1221 of

First off, before we get into this game, let’s review the debacle that was last week’s Kentucky/Mizzou Game. I sure hope that wasn’t anybody’s first experience watching college football. It would have been their last. Mizzou got ZERO first downs in the second half and still would have won if either a) the officials didn’t make the worst pass interference call since the 2002 BCS Championship game; b) the remaining crew had the balls to overturn it; c) they run the ball with a late lead and trying to take time off the clock (see SC also); or d) Barry Odom knew something about clock management. But, hey, in the end, this is Mizzou in a nutshell. We are on the wrong end of these game-changing/season- defining/legacy-making calls all the time. It’s a cliché, but if it weren’t for bad luck, Mizzou sports would have no luck at all. The 5th Down. The Flea Kicker. The 1960 KU Jayhawk cheaters. Michael Porter. Jontay Porter. Tyus Edney. Norfolk St. Northern Iowa. And on…and on… and on. Anyway…
I doubt Mizzou shows up for this game. The players are saying the right things…they still believe…they are behind their coach, etc. But Barry Odom is a dead man walking if they lose this game. And part of me would not mind that scenario. Like on Survivor, when a team loses a challenge on purpose to get rid of someone on their own team. A win could energize the team against a relatively easy schedule the rest of the way. And maybe sweeten the prospect of landing Clemson QB transfer Kelly Bryant. And Drew Lock, God love him, has not shown in 4 years that he can lead Mizzou to a victory over any team of significance. Mock drafts still show him as a first round pick, but I would not want to be the GM that made that call. Of course, these mock drafts are made by people with no NFL draft experience, but I see him going 3rd round or lower. His inability to deliver early in his career was explained away because he played 3 sports in high school; he didn’t have time to focus solely on football like his peers. But there is no excuse for 8 CONSECUTIVE three and outs in the second half against Kentucky. That was the Missouri offensive output. 8 possessions…8 three and outs. This team has the talent to contend, but whether it’s coaching or Lock’s breakdown against superior defenses, they find themselves at the end of the season needing a must-win in the 12th game to make a mid December bowl game. I’m not saying they are Bama ready, but eight 3 and outs? How is that even possible?
So, about this game. Florida is 11 in the latest poll and has a couple impressive wins already. Even though they are coming off a tough loss to Georgia, they have a lot more to fight for than the Tigers. They are good in all areas but not great in any particular one, but a better than average passing defense will once again neutralize Drew Lock. We will see how much the Tigers are committed to Odom and this season, and three of their 4 losses so far are against top 10 teams, and they did reel off 6 straight wins last year after a disastrous start to became bowl eligible, including a win at home over Florida, but again, this year had so much more promise. I think you can stick a fork in this team. They are done.
Florida 27 – Mizzou 17

Florida perspective by u/dcspringer (and his wife apparently) of

Florida comes in this week following a loss that a score suggest was more one sided than it felt. The game spiraled out of control in a matter of mere minutes for the Gators, and showed that perhaps they are not ready to contend for crown of the SEC yet. But they are close, and they can get back on track this weekend when a high-powered Missouri offense rolls into Gainesville.
The Gators and Tigers do have something in common, they both have a loss to Kentucky, but the similarities stop there. This Florida team is much improved over that Florida team that lost to Kentucky, and Missouri seems to have regressed on the season. This game is more important for Florida than many give it credit for. Dan Mullen is facing the large conundrum of keeping his team motivated. The Gators making the SEC championship game at this point is an impossibility. Florida holds the clear advantage in talent on both sides of the ball, and the biggest question will lie on whether Gator QB Felipe Franks will deliver a performance worthy of bang or a dud.
The Tigers have the 23rd best ranked passing offense in FBS ball in terms of YPG. Florida, with its 11th ranked pass defense, will look to shut down a Missouri pass offense that has seen its fair share of struggles recently. Missouri has done a decent job of keeping Drew Lock upright, giving up only 10 sacks through 8 games, and that includes a game at Alabama. Florida, on the other hand, has done a decent job of getting to the QB 22 times in 8 games. Getting to Drew Lock should be an important point for the Gator defense to disrupt the passing offense of the Tigers and give the ball back to the Gator offense.
The contractually obligated FSU wife preview:
Florida is a swamp ass garbage team whose players are as criminally inclined as its fans. Spending one second in the swamp is akin to spending an eternity sitting on a boiling hot pile of garbage. It is no wonder that the team is a trash bag full of smaller trash bags full of elephant sh*t. I and the rest of the conscious world look forward to continue to watching it implode for the rest of time until there is nothing left in its place except a work camp for the criminally insane.
(Editors note: yeah… this checks out)
Predication:
Florida has been a decent but not great team of running the football and using the spread offense. Think how the gators ran when Tebow was there under the glory days of MeyeMullen. Florida must do a better job of ball security and not allow Missouri to have their run of the field when they want. Expect Mullen to give Felipe Franks easy throws early and often to build confidence and allow UF playmakers to make plays in space. Missouri is a team that is as desperate, maybe more so than Florida is. But Florida just gets it done this week. They get off to a slow start due to the cocktail hangover, but open it up and get off to the races. Don’t be surprised if Mr. Jones shows up and shows out if things get fun.
38 Florida-21 Missouri

Alabama @ LSU 8:00 CBS

Alabama Perspective by u/dbatchison of

Oh man, oh man, oh man, I am excited for this game. Some people will say that this is Alabama's first test of the year. Despite us really dominating the Alabama/LSU series for the past 7 years, this rivarly has always been awesome. Coach O has brought some much needed life to the Tigahs and really is the perfect person to hold the reigns in Baton Rouge. When I was growing up, LSU absolutely dominated the series winning 7 of 8 between 2000 and 2007. I was a junior at Alabama for our 9-6 defensive slugfest and went to the championship game in New Orleans that year. Following the game, I experienced the perfect summary of what Alabama vs LSU is all about:
While standing in front of Fat Catz on Bourbon Street, a crying, gorgeous, blonde tiger fan yelled between tears and quick breaths "SUCK... THAT TIGAH... DICK, BITCH!" at me while throwing a full unoppened can of bud light, hitting me square in the jaw. She then ran up, hugged me, and started making out with me. Ending her passionate embrace, she shoved me away and stumbled away into the crowd, blending with the masses as quickly as she appeared, vanishing away into the night.
I believe this is a perfect summary of the Alabama-LSU rivalry. We love to hate each other. Corndogs, I expect a hell of a fight and am eagerly anticipating it. Roll Tide. I also believe this rivalry (along with the Iron Bown) needs a trophy. I suggest having a large, gold plated Gumbo Pot something this size mounted on a base with placards riveted around the sides of the pot featuring the games. The team that wins keeps it until next year. I don't like the name "the Saban Bowl" because this rivalry goes all the way back to the 1900s. It should be called something else, the "Boudin Bowl"... the Cajun Confrontation... the "At least we're not Mississippi" Showdown... the Corndog Combine... idk, something like that
35 Alabama-24 LSU
It really hurts me to say I have no LSU preview this week. Alas, 5 outa six aint bad. As always if you would like to write a preview pm me! It’s a first come first serve basis so even if someone wrote for your team this week they may be available next.

Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. First, I will breakdown my lineup for yesterday’s main slate. Then I will go over tonight’s slate as someone that plays on Draftkings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. I also have a Venmo and Patreon for those that wanna help Operation: Get Me A Laptop.
I also strongly suggest joining us on Flick. It’s a live chat app that allows me, and a wonderful group of people, to deal with news as it happens, talk about the slate, share lineups, and break things down in a way I simply can’t on any other medium. It is also invite only, so there are no trolls and only good, helpful people talking all different sports, all day, every day.. If you want to join us there, Download the Flick App and send me a message so I can get you an invite. That’s it! Free and easy!
It also should go without saying, this is just a preliminary analysis of the slate: everything can change throughout the day, so make sure you are staying on top of any and all injury news and change your lineups accordingly! Let’s get started with the Review!
Yesterday In Review:
My Lineup- -

Name	Price	DKP
Elf	6900	61.75
Brunson	5900	29.5
PG13	9700	52.75
Bender	3000	24.25
Bryant	4100	25.75
Klay	7400	48
Julius	8100	43.25
Jarrett Allen	4900	23.75
Total	50000	309

Best Possible Lineup- - Using the free lineup rewind tool on fantasycruncher, I find the highest possible lineup that could have been played.

Name	Price	DKP
Elf	6900	61.75
Booker	8000	67.25
Parsons	3000	34
Josh Jackson	3800	37.25
Nurkic	7200	55
Beal	9300	64.75
Kleber	4400	39.5
Klay	7400	48
Total	50000	407.5

Analysis-
Even though I was all over every person in the best possible lineup, with the exception of Chandler Parsons, I still managed to fall just outside the cash line with my lineup. At 656, when they announced Doncic was out, I redid my lineups to get heavy exposure to Brunson and it wound up hurting me a tremendous amount. One of those days that just makes my soul sad. But we move on to tonight!
The Daily Slates:
Lakers vs Knicks Showdown Notes

• O/U - 220, LAL -4.5
  
• Pace Rankings (last 15 days): LAL 7th, NYK 21st
  
• Injury News: Lonzo OUT, Ingram OUT, Hart QUESTIONABLE, LeBron PROBABLE, Stephenson QUESTIONABLE, Chandler QUESTIONABLE, DSJ QUESTIONABLE, Vonleh QUESTIONABLE
  
• Defensive Stats (last month): LAL - 237.7 DKPPG (5th most, -2 from pace), Weakest against PG. Also Weak against SG and C.
  
• Defensive Stats (last month): NYK - 230.7 DKPPG (16th most, -5 from pace), Weakest against SG/SF
  
• Players in the top 50 in usage (last 15 games): LeBron (12th), Mudiay (46th)
  
• Players in the top 10 in DRPM: Lonzo (6th - PG), LeBron (5th - SF)
  
• Players in the bottom 5 in DRPM: Bullock (4th Worst SG), Knox (WORST SF), JaVale (5th Worst C)
  

Afternoon 3 Game Slate
I am going to a condensed analysis for the 3 game slate.
Hornets vs Heat - Tip Off: 100pm
Stats

• O/U - 220, LAL -4.5
  
• Pace Rankings (last 15 days): CHA 22nd, MIA 26th
  
• Injury News: Zeller DOUBTFUL, Justise QUESTIONABLE, Wade QUESTIONABLE
  
• Defensive Stats (last month): CHA - 235.1 DKPPG (6th most, -16 from pace), Weakest against C. Also bad against SG/PG
  
• Defensive Stats (last month): MIA - 218.5 DKPPG (25th most, -1 from pace), Weakest against SG. BEST IN NBA against C.
  
• Players in the top 50 in usage (last 15 games): Kemba (9th), Wade (25th)
  
• Players in the top 10 in DRPM: Richardson (6th - SG), Lamb (8th - SG), Justise (10th - SF), Whitside (3rd - C)
  
• Players in the bottom 5 in DRPM: Wade (3rd Worst SG)
  

Quick Analysis
Before we talk about anything else, the bad thing here is that the tipoff time is two and a half hours before the next game tips off. Half of a team could be ruled out in that time. This game will have the lowest total on the slate. While I don’t know if it’s sane to completely fade it on a 3 game slate, if you are going to be around to late swap based on any late breaking news (and there should be some), I would give serious thought to going light on this game and saving your spots for the 330/4pm games.
With how bad the Hornets are at defending C without Zeller, I want to get some Bam (5000) who apparently is the only one we can count on for minutes. Take Whiteside (5700) if you like having agita.
With how bad MIA is at defending SG lately, I will take Jeremy Lamb (6000), who isn’t really affected by the loss of Zeller.
Olynyk (5300) should see 35 minutes here and, if he gets hot, could get you 7x value without too much of a trouble. Should also get a bunch of extra rebounds due to the Hornets being so bad.
The rest comes down to injury news. If Winslow misses, Dragic (4300) would be forced into extra minutes, and I would have to take a chance there. Also, this would make me really interested in Kemba (8300), who would have no one on the Heat who can adequately guard him, with or without Zeller
If Wade misses, you have to give extra consideration to McGruder (3300) and Waiters (4300).
Sixers vs Bucks - Tip Off: 330pm
Stats

• O/U - 231, MIL -6.5
  
• Pace Rankings (last 15 days): PHI 10th, MIL 8th
  
• Injury News: PatCon PROBABLE, Brown OUT, Donte QUESTIONABLE, Brogdon OUT
  
• Defensive Stats (last month): PHI - 221.6 DKPPG (22nd most, +12 from pace), Above Average Against Every Position.
  
• Defensive Stats (last month): MIL - 232.7 DKPPG (12th most, +4 from pace), Weakest against C, SF, SG)
  
• Players in the top 50 in usage (last 15 games): Embiid (10th), Giannis (11th), Khris (45th)
  
• Players in the top 10 in DRPM: Bledsoe (7th - PG), Butler (2nd - PG), Giannis (5th - PF), BroLo (7th - C), Embiid (10th - C)
  
• Players in the bottom 5 in DRPM: NONE
  

Quick Analysis
The Bucks have a 3 game lead over the Raptors for top seed in the East, even though they lost Brogdon for the rest of the season with a plantar fascia tear. Tony Snell will be replacing him in the lineup which is not good for the offense of the Bucks, but should push extra usage to all of the other normal starters, meaning all 4 of them should receive slight bumps from here on out, in every game, until they take their foot off the gas.
As much as I would love to talk about defensive matchups, this is a couple teams filled with freaks. Even if he’s guarded all game by Jimmy Butler, Giannis (10800) is going to take this game like a playoff preview, and will be playing for the win. If the Sixers let Harris guard him, with Butler on Khris, all the better for people who play Giannis.
Embiid (10000) has a tough matchup against BroLo and a good MIL C defense, but, again, he’s a freak. He’s gotten 34 and 36 minutes and 57 and 56 DKP his last couple of games. This is a tougher matchup, for sure, but it’s not like BroLo is going to stop Embiid. He is just underpriced for any matchup, as tough as this one is.
Simmons (8100)... he’s either going to have to attack the basket a lot, or get 20 assists to someone putting up a 3. Cause that’s where the Bucks are weakest, and he barely shoots past the key. The same goes for Butler, who should see the D of Giannis most of the game.
My 2 favorite Sixers are Redick (5100), who will try to exploit his matchup against Snell, and is a 3 point shooter if I ever saw one. He could put up 15 3s today if the Sixers really want to win. While not as prolific a 3 point shooter as Redick, Harris (7200) will get 5+ 3s up, as well as attack the Bucks at their weakest position, from the season long perspective.
Khris (6600) is someone I want today, though I feel like it’s one of those places I’m being too cute. I just feel like Giannis and Butler will be on each other all game, giving Khris a bonus matchup against Tobias Harris. He should be able to eat. Plus, no Brogdon. So that’s more 3s for him.
Snell (3100) should get the start, and might get you value in 20 minutes. Maybe? He could get you anywhere from 5-20 DKP here. It’s a huge risk but, in a 3 game slate, in a GPP, where we are hunting for value, you better believe I am going to take a chance here. As well as PatCon (3500), if he can play. If he is out, I will play Donte (3000). If both are out, with Brown missing, Snell might get 35 minutes, or I might take the chance they play both George Hill and Duval at the same time. But yuck.
Raptors vs Pistons - Tip Off: 430pm
Stats

• O/U - N/A
  
• Pace Rankings (last 15 days): TOR 13th, DET 29th
  
• Injury News: Lowry QUESTIONABLE, Green PROBABLE, FVV QUESTIONABLE, Ibaka OUT, R Jax PROBABLE
  
• Defensive Stats (last month): TOR - 227.3 DKPPG (19th most, +6 from pace), Weakest against SF and PG
  
• Defensive Stats (last month): DET - 211.1 DKPPG (30th most, +1 from pace), Above Average Against Every Position. SECOND BEST IN THE NBA Against PG AND PF.
  
• Players in the top 50 in usage (last 15 games): Kawhi (13th), Blake (27th), R Jax (39th)
  
• Players in the top 10 in DRPM: Lowry (5th - PG), Green (1st - SG), Brown (3rd - SG), Siakam (7th - PF)
  
• Players in the bottom 5 in DRPM: Ibaka (4th Worst C)
  

Quick Analysis
So, this game, and, essentially, this entire slate is going to come down to the health and status of Kyle Lowry. Since this is an early game, we may not know anything until 230-3pm, which means the early game will have been locked for 2 hours already. So you can either plan and try to guess right, late swap, or avoid it all entirely.
We have to also understand this is a Pistons team that has been playing 29th in pace and giving up the fewest DKPPG. Even if Lowry plays, this is just a terrible matchup for the whole Toronto team. On top of that, if you look at the last game, the entirety of the Raptors team had 21 assists on 111 points. Siakam had 6, Kawhi and Gasol had 4. Green, Powell, and McCaw had 2 and Lin, the POINT GUARD had 1. So, yeah.
Kawhi (8600) is priced fairly at 8600 if Lowry is playing, and he’s underpriced if Lowry is out, but nothing substantial enough I would call him a lock. He should get you another 40-45 DKP, but I don’t think he will get you anywhere near the 60 DKP you would want at that price.
Siakam (6700) is your best bet here. He will see his normal run and get some backup C run with Ibaka being out. Granted the Pistons have been wonderful against PF lately, but if he gets you 40 minutes again, at that price, you take it.
Gasol (6400) should get 26-30 minutes again, especially against this DET frontcourt. I think people will be skittish to play him after last game, but I think they will need his height more in this matchup than a Lakers team that plays small. He would be one of my favorite plays, assuming I am right about ownership.
If Lowry plays, he’s a little too expensive (unless they rule Kawhi out last minute). If FVV (4000) plays, I will be all over him. He hurt his thumb, so he should have been able to stay in shape, and people don’t consider that when they avoid people coming back from injury.
On the Pistons side, if Lowry is out, I will lock in R Jax (4700) against the D of Lin. Unless FVV starts, at which point I will start Ish (4100). Either way, I want whoever is going against Lin.
Drummond (8700) will have a tough draw against Gasol, but I still think he could get value for this price. Especially if Blake (7500) keeps playing like a Zombie on sleeping pills.
Main Four Game Slate
Hawks vs Magic - Tip Off: 600pm
Stats

• O/U - 226.5, ORL -7.5
  
• Pace Rankings (last 15 days): ATL 9th, ORL 25th
  
• Injury News: Plumlee QUESTIONABLE
  
• Defensive Stats (last month): ATL - 234.9 DKPPG (7th most, -2 from pace), Weakest against SG, PG and PF
  
• Defensive Stats (last month): ORL - 212.2 DKPPG (29th most, +4 from pace), Above Average Against Every Position. BEST IN THE NBA against SF.
  
• Players in the top 50 in usage (last 15 games): Trae (17th), Vuc (33rd), Ross (42nd)
  
• Players in the top 10 in DRPM: Baze (5th - SG), Isaac (9th - PF), Vuc (6th - C)
  
• Players in the bottom 5 in DRPM: Trae (WORST in NBA), Prince (3rd Worst SF), Collins (2nd Worst PF)
  

Quick Analysis
When you see one of the slowest teams taking on one of the fastest, you should immediately look to where you can exploit those weaknesses. The Hawks have many weaknesses.
First, PG. Trae is the worst defender in the NBA. Not just for PGs. For every player. So, even though Augustin (5100) has priced up, he just put up almost 40 DKP in a similar matchup against 2nd worst defender in the NBA, Collin Sexton. Jerian Grant (3200) will also get 18-22 minutes here, so you have to consider him as a punt.
Second, Forwards. Collins and Prince will start and get a lot of minutes. This means Isaac (5200) should be able to destroy Prince. That’s not even fair. And Gordon (7200), who is always a risk of disappearing, should be able to have one of those 50 DKP games against Collins. I would also add that Ross (5600) would also greatly benefit from these same issues.
Third, SG. While he will see some Baze, making him less desirable, you still can’t go wrong at that price for Fournier (5500), especially considering how weak ATL has been against outside shooting lately.
The only decent defender the Hawks have, and he has been showing it against good players all season, is Dedmon, meaning I will actually be lower on Vuc than any of the other starters except Fournier. I know that the Hawks is a great matchup and 9200 is underpriced. But I think the path to scoring is going to be easier through other people. Which does make the chance Vuc has a 3x2 greater. But it’s still pointless to push that issue, so why would they? I should also point out that bathrobe favorite Khem Birch (3400) just got 33DKP and a 13p/11r 2x2 in 18 minutes. Go Khem!
Trae Young (7400) is one of my favorite plays of this slate at that price. Not joking. I know ORL is slow. I know that they give up almost no DKPPG. I know they stunt production everywhere. But I also know that Trae is only 7400 and he’s going to be the lion’s share of this offense, and he has the easiest matchup, against either Augustin or Fournier, who he will obliterate today. He should be back over 8k and I will be ALL OVER him today. I imagine his ownership is going to be super low, and I may have to mass enter again just to get me enough Young over the field.
While I think Collins (7500) is almost a sure bet for a 2x2, and should get the best of Aaron Gordon almost all game, I think my 2nd favorite play on the Hawks is Huerter (4300) who is priced like a punt, but could easily get you 30-40 DKP here. He gets a great matchup against Fournier. He will get you 30 minutes. There’s just no reason that he should be that low. So, while I do like Collins a lot, considering price, gimme Trae first, then Huerter, then Collins.
Bulls vs Kings - Tip Off: 600pm
Stats

• O/U - 232, SAC -6.5
  
• Pace Rankings (last 15 days): CHI 19th, SAC 2nd
  
• Injury News: NONE
  
• Defensive Stats (last month): CHI - 234.2 DKPPG (8th most, +11 from pace), 2nd worst in the NBA against PG. Also bad against C.
  
• Defensive Stats (last month): SAC - 230.3 DKPPG (3rd most, -1 from pace), Worst in the NBA against PG. Also below average against SG, PF, and C.
  
• Players in the top 50 in usage (last 15 games): LaVine (18th), Hield (29th), Lauri (49th)
  
• Players in the top 10 in DRPM: Fox (10th - PG)
  
• Players in the bottom 5 in DRPM: Bagley (4th Worst PF)
  

Quick Analysis
This is a massive, massive pace up matchup for the Bulls against a SAC team that plays horrid D. So the first person you have to go to is the person that controls the most usage - LaVine (8000). He is going to take as many shots as he wants, and, even though his price has FINALLY come up to the 8k mark I’ve been talking about since he came back from the injury, he is still someone who could get past 50 DKP in this matchup, especially if this shoots out.
My 2nd favorite play would be Otto (6500), who gets the best matchup of the lot, against Barnes, who is awful. Considering price, I might like him more than LaVine. But it’s really close.
Next best is Lauri (7300). If they start Bagley instead of Bjelica, Lauri becomes my favorite play. But, assuming Lauri starts opposite Bjelica, he would be 3rd.
On the Kings, the only 2 players I want, and I want a lot of them, are Fox (7100) and Hield (7000). In this matchup, given the weaknesses of the Bulls defense as a whole, and the defense of LaVine specifically, I will be all over these 2 players today. I think both can go off here, and it would be really sneaky to stack this game while the field is looking elsewhere. Especially considering how consolidated usage gets for both.
Wolves vs Rockets - Tip Off: 900pm
Stats

• O/U - N/A
  
• Pace Rankings (last 15 days): MIN 16th, HOU 24th
  
• Injury News: Teague OUT, RoCo OUT, Rose QUESTIONABLE, Deng OUT, Harden QUESTIONABLE
  
• Defensive Stats (last month): MIN - 242.9 DKPPG (2nd most, +14 from pace!!), 2nd worst in the NBA against PF, also terrible against SF. Also subpar against PG and SG.
  
• Defensive Stats (last month): HOU - 217 DKPPG (27th most, -3 from pace), Weakest against PG. 2nd Best in the NBA Against Centers.
  
• Players in the top 50 in usage (last 15 games): Harden (1st), KAT (4th), Rose (16th)
  
• Players in the top 10 in DRPM: CP3 (4th - PG), RoCo (1st - SF), Tucker (9th - SF)
  
• Players in the bottom 5 in DRPM: Rose (4th Worst PG), Saric (WORST PF)
  

Quick Analysis
Well, this sucks, huh? The whole slate will come down to whether or not Harden plays. And there is no guarantee we know before lock. Two games at 6, both filled with plays. Then a 3 hour gap. Then 2 games at 9pm. One of which has James Harden as questionable. All we can do is hope that the Rockets have some kind of Sunday morning availability where they can update his status. But you and I both know, odds are that this is going to be a GTD we won’t know about until 730pm when the team is starting to warm up. For what it’s worth, it’s the same “cervical strain” that kept him out a couple games a few weeks back. So. Good luck to us all. I hope we find out early. I wouldn’t hold my breath.
If Harden (11500) plays, I am pretty sure the Rockets are going to eat the Wolves for breakfast. If that happens, I would maybe take a chance on Wiggins. But I would find it hard to pay up for anyone, given how good the other games are. So I hope Harden misses, so we can take some fun picks from this game.
First, CP3 (6700) would draw a tough matchup against Tyus, but he’s only 6700 and would be without Harden. Meaning you have to lock him in first and foremost, though he would also be the absolute chalkiest of chalk .If you want to get off him, cause of the Tyus matchup, I completely understand.
Second, if Harden misses, you have to lock in Gordon (5300), who gets an insane usage bump, and would get Andrew Wiggins all game, who is the 6th worst SF defensively in the NBA.
I wouldn’t be a big fan of either, but with as much usage as Harden has needing to go elsewhere, it would be hard not to consider Capela (7600) and House (3700) as well (or whoever gets the start).
It should also be noted that, a couple months ago, the Wolves were one of the best teams in the NBA against PF. Then they started giving Saric the starts. And now they are 2nd worst in the NBA against the position. As much as it makes my blood curl, Tucker (4100) is going to get a bunch of minutes against him. The best thing we can hope for is Harden to be out, and the Rockets to move Tucker to SF and move Faried (4000) into the starting lineup, at which point he would be one of my favorite plays of the day. It would also change everything I am about to write about the Wolves.
On the Wolves side, if Harden is out, I will be all in on Wiggins (5500), who would be lined up against Gordon, who is even worse than Wiggins at D. With Teague out, Rose coming off the bench at best (and Questionable in his own right), and KAT going against a Rockets team that has been shutting Centers down lately, Wiggins is going to be in one of those spots where, when you look back at it and he has taken 30 shots and gotten 50 DKP, you are like “oh shit, why didn’t I even consider Wiggins.” You know, those games Wiggins has a couple of a year? It’s one of those.
As good as the Rockets have been against C, i would also take a shot on KAT (10000), who is 4th in usage and just can’t be stopped by Capela, or anyone else on this Rockets team. He is the head honcho on this team, in every sense, and with Teague out it increases his usage, and his assist upside.
Even though he draws a tough matchup against CP3, he will get 30 minutes with Teague out, so you have to take a chance on Tyus (4700) at that price. I don’t love the spot, but I love the price, the usage, and the opportunity. And those win out here, and in DFS.
The last thing I will point out here is, not to beat a dead horse, but Saric is so fucking terrible at Defense I just got past him with my walker. If the Wolves want to keep this game close, they are going to need to give Taj (4400) a LOT of extra run. Be sure to give him a lot of consideration, because I really think they are going to need to use a lot of him in this matchup, at the expense of Saric.
Nets vs Clippers - Tip Off: 900pm
Stats

• O/U - 231, LAC -6
  
• Pace Rankings (last 15 days): BK 14th, LAC 4th
  
• Injury News: Crabbe OUT, Napier QUESTIONABLE
  
• Defensive Stats (last month): BK - 225.1 DKPPG (21st most, -7 from pace), Weakest against C/PF. 2nd best in the NBA Against SG.
  
• Defensive Stats (last month): LAC - 233.4 DKPPG (10th most, -6 from pace), 2nd worst in the NBA against C. Also weak against PG and SG.
  
• Players in the top 50 in usage (last 15 games): D Lo (2nd), LouWill (5th), Dinwiddie (14th), Gallo (43rd), Montrezl (44th)
  
• Players in the top 10 in DRPM: PatBev (3rd - PG), Treveon (7th - SG), Zubac (8th - C)
  
• Players in the bottom 5 in DRPM: Dinwiddie (5th Worst PG), LouWill (2nd Worst SG), Joe Harris (4th Worst SF)
  

Quick Analysis
The most expensive play in this game is 7100. And it has a total of 231. With 2 fast teams (BK was just 1st in pace) with huge holes in their defense. Oh man, this is going to be fun to get a lot of cheap value from
First, and foremost, Centers/PFs against the Nets and Centers against the Clippers. Give me all of them. First, obviously, is Montrezl (6600) who should get 40-50 DKP tonight just for showing up, like he got his name right on the SATs. Next is Ed Davis (3500), who will only get 20 or so minutes, but will get to eat while doing it. Third, Zubac (4700) will also only get you 20-24 minutes here, but he is 1200 more expensive than Davis. Last is Jarrett Allen (5300), who I just don’t trust to get the minutes or production. But you can’t deny his upside and the spot he’s in.
Second, high usage guards. The only decent defender on this team at the guard position is PatBev, who will have his hands full with LeVert (and vice versa). That leaves D Lo (7100) and his falling price tag, against SGA and his terrible D. He isn’t getting as many minutes lately, but he is still 2nd in the NBA in usage over the last 15 games, even with Dinwiddie back. He could get you 50 DKP here and people will avoid him. I also LOVE Dinwiddie (6100) and LouWill (6900) who will get most of their run lined up against each other, and they are both horrible defenders. As you can see, LouWill and Dinwiddie are both top 15 in the NBA in usage, so we can count on them to take a lot of shots, and can laugh at how ridiculous these prices are.
The last play I want to mention is Gallo (6800) who is the unquestioned usage leader of the starting 5 for the Clippers. He will be matched up with Kurucs who is a dumpster fire. While he will cede all of his late game usage to LouWill and Montrezl, making him a riskier and less reliable play, he could get you 40 DKP when they are off the court, and we can just hope for some crumbs when they are.
Wow!! This should be an exciting day of basketball!! I wish you all the best of luck! I am going to leave my house for once and go look at laptops with my wife! Yay! I’m super excited. I don’t think I have enough to get one, but at least then I’ll know what I am aiming for! Hooray!